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Is Adam Gase the biggest scam in football???

Discussion in 'AFC East Rivals' started by djphinfan, Apr 17, 2019.

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  1. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    There are worse QBs starting so yes, I think the main reason no one went after him as a starter is because of his injuries.
     
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  2. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    None of those quarterbacks have demonstrated the pattern of play Tannehill did (even when he was healthy), whereby he played poorly (compared to both himself at other times, and to other QBs) against better competition and in clutch, close game situations. Consequently, those QBs were able to play well in the playoffs, when those variables were much more likely to be present.

    Tannehill's performance against better competition and in clutch situations suggests he would've fared poorly in the playoffs, had he ever made it to them.

    In essence we have an entire body of play (playoff football) we don't have access to regarding Tannehill, that would've very likely soured us greatly on his ability to take the team to the Super Bowl.

    Consequently we can maintain some sense of "Tannehill could've done X if only..." because we were never privy to an entire body of play on his part. Again, however, his performance suggests he would've struggled mightily in that area.
     
    Last edited: May 20, 2019
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  3. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    I hear you, I still have a hole in my heart from stoyonovich missing that field goal in the 94 playoffs.
     
  4. Dorfdad

    Dorfdad Well-Known Member

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    Oh man I had forgotten this! Now you have reopened a wound!!! We’re cursed I tell you Cursed!!!

    I long for the chad Pennington era and I hate everything about the jets
     
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  5. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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  6. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Gase may be a scam but that article is also lol. The guy's love of DVOA without understanding it has all kinds of arbitrary (and hidden) assumptions plus his cherry picking of certain stats over others makes that article not worth reading (though I read it lol).

    Only stats worth mentioning in there are the percent of the times Tannehill and Cutler threw short of the sticks on 3rd down. Those are raw stats (unlike all those other DVOA based rankings he lists) and the fact Gase's QB's ranked so low is an indictment of Gase's philosophy that it's good to pass short of the 1st down marker even when you absolutely need to get a 1st down on 3rd and long.

    I hadn't seen that one particular stat reported before so that's good, but otherwise the article is an exercise in the misuse of stats lol.
     
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  7. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    I do agree it's full of assumptions, but at the end it does make it clear there are other underlying reasons not discussed.

    The stats are a bit cherry picked but most articles are so eh.
     
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  8. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Staff Member Club Member

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    Gase and DVOA are both total garbage! :up:
     
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  9. Bumrush

    Bumrush Stable Genius Club Member

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    Which starting QB is demonstrably worse?
     
  10. Tin Indian

    Tin Indian Rockin' The Bottom End Club Member

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    It may be some cherry picking of stats however, we all saw and complained about those very things the last few years under Gase. Constantly it was asked in the game day threads. If Gase wanted to throw short of the sticks and let the receiver make the play with the ball he should never have let Landry go. Landry was pretty darn good with the ball in his hands. Not that I'm advocating for Landry.
     
  11. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    The only reason to throw short of the sticks is if the opposing D have backed off so far that your receiver can pick up the first down relatively comfortably. The way you achieve that is by being known for throwing downfield well past the sticks.
     
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  12. Tin Indian

    Tin Indian Rockin' The Bottom End Club Member

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    Agreed.
     
  13. JPPT1974

    JPPT1974 July Fireworks 2020

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    No wonder the Fins are happy to get rid of a basket case like Gase.
     
  14. Irishman

    Irishman Well-Known Member

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    Is this the case with Belichick? I thought he did not do that well prior to going to New England.
     
  15. Irishman

    Irishman Well-Known Member

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    I appreciate the way you explained how the confidence level qualifies the results of an analysis and how you can determine if the distribution of your statistic changes as a function of sample size, and what can be done about it.

    This addressed some questions I have about how to interpret QB statistics in light of the effect of its interactions with:
    1) Effectiveness of team protection for a QB
    2) Effectiveness of receivers
    3) Play calls
    4) Adjustments to play calls
    5) Effectiveness of the defenses played against
    6) Weather
    7) Field conditions

    I still wonder if not evaluating all of these interactions doesn't leave you with some kind of error. Is this what you are addressing when you consider data being additive or multiplicative?
     
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  16. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    I followed his career closely back then. The year before Belichek arrived the Browns were the worst team in football and sucked on both sides of the ball.
    In his tenure the Browns steadily climbed the defensive ranking to be near the top of the league and the offense became steady and effective. In years 2 and 3 he went 7-9 and in year 4 he went 11-5 and won the division iirc. Year 5 was the year Modell announced the Browns were leaving Cleveland something like 4 games into the season and everything Browns related fell apart.
    Ozzie Newsome has said he kept the player prototype blueprints he and Belichek developed at the Browns to build the Ravens defenses that won Super Bowls.
     
  17. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Yeah.. like I said in the post you quoted Belichick is one of those exceptions. Didn't do that well with the Browns and then went on a tear once Brady started in year 2 of his tenure with NE. So Belichick's winning streak started from year 7, same as Landry. That's a rarity though for coaches with long tenures and winning records.

    Not knowing all the individual interactions just means you don't know how all the individual sources of error combine into the error you actually observe. The error you observe however includes all possible sources of error so it's not like something's being left out.

    Additive noise just refers to adding independent sources of uncertainty. Let's say you decompose every source of sound that reaches your ear. Maybe multiple people are speaking at the same time, a bird is chirping, a lawnmower is out there, etc... Each of those sources generates its own set of sound waves (patterns of compression and rarefaction in the air) and those waves add. Here's the first thing I found on Google that shows an animation of this principle of superposition of waves:
    https://www.acs.psu.edu/drussell/Demos/superposition/superposition.html

    Now.. each of those individual sources of sound will be "noisy" in the sense that there will be sources of interference (e.g., due to temperature which causes air molecules to jiggle about). Those sources of interference also add. In other words you're dealing with additive noise in this case, and most natural phenomena exhibit additive noise. There are mathematical techniques for removing additive noise and they're employed in everything from signal processing (in telecommunications), image processing (making a blurry image look clearer) to fancy stuff like ICA (Independent Components Analysis) that can tease apart the individual signals (you can listen in on just what one person is saying in a crowd for example).

    Multiplicative noise is different: the noise isn't literally added, but multiplied, and that's mathematically harder to remove. The important thing w.r.t. football stats is that as long as the final observed noise is additive, it doesn't matter if the individual sources of noise are multiplicative or not and that Central Limit Theorem (CLT) I referenced applies. And it's most certainly additive: the sources of random variation (i.e., noise) associated with the pattern a WR runs is definitely independent of the sources of random variation associated with how let's say a QB throws the football, even if both were coached by the same coach and are running the same play (the "play" is the "signal".. the random variation in the play is the "noise").

    So that's why you can estimate confidence intervals with football statistics without worrying about all the individual sources of noise: the assumptions of additive noise in the CLT are satisfied. If it was multiplicative noise, you'd have to transform football stats to a logarithmic axis (which represents percent increases in the statistic) but all the stats I've looked at never require that.
     
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  18. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    To be fair, how many times did Landry (a) drop the ball and (b) get tackled for no gain after the catch? While he rarely broke off a catch for massive yards, throwing him a 2 yard pass on 3rd and 5 was a fairly safe play. There were a lot of things to criticize Landry for (temperament, attitude, lack of speed, etc.) but his ball handling skills in short yardage definitely wasn't one of them.

    Considering Tannehill had very little time to throw to begin with, combined with the defense playing off to encourage short passes to Landry, it's hard to fault Gase for throwing short of the sticks in 2016. After all, we were 10-6 that season and went to the playoffs with a backup QB...I'm not sure why some people's selective memory is seeing that as a criticism.
     
  19. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Cbrad, you keep making that argument about BB, but it's really not accurate. Literally, the post right before you, Pauly laid out BBs Browns tenure. What killed BB and the Browns was the announcement 4 games into the season that the Browns were getting moved.
     
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  20. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    It's a criticism because why go for the safe play when:

    1. The defense is sitting all over those "safe routes" and
    2. We're consistently getting destroyed

    It seems that Gase was happy just taking short completions that left his QBs with relatively good looking stats. This COULD BE an issue where a coach is looking at stats like cbrad likes to post...ie, a QB rating of X correlates to winning X amount of games. So perhaps artificially trying to hit certain numbers for the QBs, believing that the wins are a function of the numbers...but in reality, it's the opposite. So in essence, "if we can have our QBs hitting certain benchmarks, the wins will come. It's probability."
     
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  21. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    No what I'm saying is correct. First of all, Belichick would be an exception regardless because his first 3 seasons with the Browns he had losing records. The question is what about the 5th season when Art Modell announced he was moving the franchise back to Baltimore.

    That announcement came after game 9 (week 10) when the Browns had a 4-5 record. In other words Belichick was on track to have a 7-9 win season without the announcement, which is exactly the same record he had in his 2nd and 3rd years as coach of the Browns. So that 11-5 season in year 4 was not the beginning of a winning streak.

    The first time we have evidence Belichick was capable of more than just an isolated winning season was his 7th year coaching.
     
  22. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Except that Tannehill's ratings were average (and Cutler's was worse than average) so Gase's QB's didn't have good stats due to all those short passes. And Tannehill didn't have better stats with Gase than with Philbin either, so there's no real evidence those short passes improved overall statistical performance.

    And while it's true that passer rating can be affected by the performance of other units (something you can see through correlations between passer rating and performance of other units, many of which I've posted), there's no question about the direction of causality behind the correlation between passer rating and win%: win% is the effect (as in.. the "win" literally comes after the passing stats in the game). So that particular example won't hold.
     
  23. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Or they could have gone 11-5 or 10-6. Or 9-7. Or 8-8. You are assuming that he would have gone 7-9.
     
  24. Surfs Up 99

    Surfs Up 99 Team Flores & Team Tua

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    Whoa! This brings up a really interesting question for me. Was it's Gase's plan to just throw the short completions where a lot of time it was intentionally short of the mark or was it a matter of taking what the defense gives us? Is this a good play design and offensive concept?
     
  25. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Yeah anything could have happened, but 4-5 was the actual record and there's no evidence Belichick could put together 2+ winning seasons in a row (and usually the streaks we're talking about are 5+ or more for HoF coaches or long tenured winning coaches) until year 7.
     
  26. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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  27. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Staff Member Club Member

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    Its been so frustrating so watch nearly every single other offense around the league seemingly have little trouble getting those 5-8 yard completions (through the air) all game long between the 20s, even if they often result in little to zero YAC, while the Fins were totally inept at that during Gase's whole tenure. He seemed totally uninterested in those types of plays, whereas I want them to be the bedrock foundation of the offense.
     
  28. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    Agreed. Let's get good at ordinary football before we try extraordinary football...because that requires extra..
     
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  29. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The defense wasn't "sitting on them"...they were handing it to us on the bet that they could tackle Landry for no gain. And guess what- they didn't the vast majority of the time.

    Again though, this was our 10-6 season where we were HORRIBLE on offense the first 4 games and had to get something... anything ...moving the chains. If you remember, two linemen were straight up fired going into week 5 (I remember this vividly because that's the day I posted we were about to go on a 6 game win streak...and we did). The answer was short passes to Landry and we didn't stop them because we kept winning.

    I mean, we finished the year with 2 losses across the last 10 games...that's hardly getting destroyed.

    The big problem in Gase's offense was a combination of his starting linemen on injured reserve (and bad backups), plus a QB who couldn't handle pressure. The only way to combat those two glaring issues is a quick release...there literally is no other way to move the chains. That's why Grant and Wilson as wide-outs made such a huge difference when they were healthy- we'd throw short of the chains and those two would turn it into a TD.
     
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  30. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    This all sounds nice, but I dont believe it's as simple as saying a QB was good against X level of competition.

    It's like saying nothing around the position matters almost, like the quality of team.

    I'm not defending Tannehill so much as just saying I dont think it's a fair way to assess anyone.
     
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  31. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    What games were you watching? On third and long, we were absolutely terrible, often throwing short of the sticks, and almost never converting. People *****ed about it for two years.
     
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  32. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    LOL, I was watching the 10 games we won. People ***** about everything all the time, even when we're winning- that doesn't mean it's valid or even worth listening to.
     
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  33. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I watched those games too. I don't care if we won or lost, 3rd and long we would throw short of the sticks and we usually would not convert. Or we missed often enough it felt like we never converted. It was a valid concern at the time, and given how putrid the offense was, it seems that it certainly was worth listening to.

    Oh, by the way, we were 31st in league in third down conversion.
     
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  34. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    But to get back to the point, the defenses absolutely sat on those. They didn't bite on anything downfield, just waited for those short passes. They didn't have worry about deep because the line couldn't block long enough. Lol. But yeah, I didn't mean that they were jumping the routes, just that they knew they were coming, and kinda just day back and waited for then pounced.
     
  35. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Again, a terrible line + QB that reacts poorly to pressure = a lousy offense. I'm not trying to sugarcoat anything here...we couldn't move the ball consistently and we had more 3 and outs than 1st downs. Nobody was happy with the offensive production YET we won 10 games.

    And remember, this is in the "Gase is the biggest scam in football" thread. **** offense + 10 wins does not = Gase is a scam.

    I'm not going to continue to argue the same points (like we won 7 games last season with mainly backups, when we were predicted to win 3 with our starters). If people can't see that Gase had to be doing something right behind the scenes, then they'll never see it until NY becomes dominant. Then they'll cry for a decade because we let Gase "slip away"....even though they're celebrating it today. The only argument I have left is that we can talk about this in 12 months time and again the year after that.
     
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  36. Tin Indian

    Tin Indian Rockin' The Bottom End Club Member

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    Exactly. It's a kind of football Urban Legend that Belichek was a failure in Cleveland. He was actually building a heck of a team in Cleveland when Modell pulled the rug out from under him.
     
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  37. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Staff Member Club Member

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    Personally, I would much rather have a 6-10 team that has a clear plan on offense, is working to consistently gain moderate yardage on first down, can convert third downs at a reasonable rate, and makes an average amount of trips to the Red Zone, to a 10-6 team that always wins by the seat of their pants, living and dying on the big play on offense and by creating turnovers on defense. I want a sustainable foundation that we can then build from. Gase never even seemed to try that, it was all short cuts.
     
  38. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I mean, when he came in the door he said his style was an explosive offense that takes advantages of mismatches- he didn't lie. The part that he didn't tell you was that the line was in horrible shape due to "high moral character", the QB he inherited couldn't stay on the field, and the rest of the offense was a turnstyle for three consecutive seasons. When 7+ of your 11 offensive starters are on injured reserve, it's not taking shortcuts...it's getting enough bodies on the field to avoid forfeiting.

    I know cBrad will say the extent of our injuries were not outside the median for NFL teams. That's awesome on paper, but I didn't see any other teams last year win 7 games with a backup QB, plus mostly backup receivers, backup running backs and a backup line. Towards the end we were forced to start practice squad players....that just doesn't happen on teams in the playoff hunt in week 15.

    Everyone has their own opinion and I respect that, but I'm really tired of this narrative that Gase sabotaged the team.
     
  39. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    "Sabotage"? Who argued that? I think we all agree Gase wanted to win – sabotage would mean that he deliberately tried to hurt the team. He just couldn't build a consistent winner nor could he systematically improve the team.

    Yes we can revisit this discussion after a year, but there are non-football reasons to think he won't succeed in NY. The guy is power hungry and can't get along with others well (Jets fire their GM AFTER he chose Gase, AFTER he was in charge of the draft and AFTER he spent tons of money in FA? LOL) and acts like there's nothing he did wrong here in Miami. A guy who refuses to learn from his mistakes leading the Jets to glory? Nah.. don't think so. But yes we'll see.
     
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  40. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    To you, what's the meaning of "Biggest scam in football?" A fraud? A cheat? A fake? Sabotage is not a quantum leap from any of those.

    Maybe Gase does fail in NY...its entirely possible since the city is bigger than what a lot of players/coaches can handle. But we won 7 games last year with a 2nd string offense largely due to the same arrogance that everyone bashes the guy about. He won with RT, Moore, Cutler, and Osweiler behind one of the worst offenses in football- would you really classify that as a scam? Just look as your numbers....then look at the wins.....you've said yourself many times that something does not compute there.

    As far as the GM being fired, or even why Gase was fired from Miami...we have ABSOLUTELY NO IDEA what actually happened. Could you have predicted our former line coach was snorting coke with hookers in the training facility? Of course not. Yet you're blindly blaming Gase for something you have no knowledge over....there are a thousand reasons why the GM could have been fired. He's remained silent and Gase has repeatedly said that they had a good working relationship.
     
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