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Inside Linebacker Options at Pick 22

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Aqua4Ever04, Jan 25, 2017.

  1. Aqua4Ever04

    Aqua4Ever04 Write Travis Write Club Member

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    I am putting together a scouting profile for the Dolphins 2017 draft and it starts with a look at the potential linebackers we could take in the first round.

    Over the course of the draft process, I'll be writing up scouting reports like this with GIFs and tape evaluation of a plethora of potential Dolphins draft picks.

    Jarrad Davis, Zac Cunningham and Reuben Foster are up first.

    https://welcometoperfectville.com/2017/01/24/dolphins-draft-targets-linebackers/

    Jarrad Davis
     
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  2. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    Jarrad Seems like the most talented and NFL ready of the three, but I worry that he is on the small side and injury prone. We already have experience with smallish injury prone linebackers from Florida in Jelani Jenkins and its not a good one.

    I think we should fill the middle linebacker need through free agency. Zach Brown or Donte Hightower would be great for us I believe.

    Sent from my F3111 using Tapatalk
     
  3. Bob Danger

    Bob Danger New Member

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    Several mock drafts I've seen have us taking JJ's little brother.
     
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  4. PhinsRDbest

    PhinsRDbest Transform and Transcend Club Member

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    the next dimension
    He'd be more of an outside backer for us, perhaps even a de. The other 3 can slide into the middle.
     
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  5. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

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    Inside LB and Guard need to be addressed via FA. No time for training. We need the Super Bowl in year 2 like Atlanta


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  6. gilv13

    gilv13 Well-Known Member

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    Alex Mack signing was a key, but the big reason the Falcons are playing for championship is because of their drafting and coaching.
     
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  7. Aqua4Ever04

    Aqua4Ever04 Write Travis Write Club Member

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    Forrest Lamp would be our best guard the second we draft him if we went that way. I wouldn't hate it at all.

    Always been a fan of strengthening your strengths. If you score 30 points a game, you can stand to be a little worse on D.
     
  8. Aqua4Ever04

    Aqua4Ever04 Write Travis Write Club Member

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    And Matt Ryan having arguably the greatest season by a quarterback ever.
     
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  9. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Here are two studies that show the percentage of busts at different positions given where the players were drafted.

    This one filters by "5-year starters" drafted between 1994-2008:
    http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/draft-probabilities-by-position/

    And this one filters by whether the player started at least half of their career using data from 2005-2014:
    http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round

    In both studies you see something worth noting: OL and LB are the two positions with highest success rate in the first two rounds, and ILB is especially safe. At the end of the 1st and top of 2nd, 94% of ILB's picked turned out to start at least 5 years! And in general, OL success rate is 70-80%+ in 1st-2nd round with LB's 55-70%.

    So this is shaping up to be really good in that two positions of need are the safest positions to pick in the draft. And third safest position is TE! So really you've got a good reason to draft any combo of LB, OL and TE in the first 3 rounds, all positions of need for us.
     
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  10. smahtaz

    smahtaz Pimpin Ain't Easy Club Member

    As much as I agree with you that ILB is the most pressing need, I still can't stop fantasizing about OJ Howard.

    RB Ajayi, Williams, Drake
    WR Stills, Landry, Parker
    TE Sims, Gray, Howard

    I don't know if I've ever seen anything like it.
     
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  11. Electric Boogaloo

    Electric Boogaloo Inventor of the question mark

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    TE in the first is a luxury pick, imho. Only one ball to go around with the skill positions. LB can be impactful on the majority of defensive snaps. With Suh and a space eater like Phillips, a good side to side thumper should be able to wreak havoc.

    Oh, and our LBs are hot garbage.
     
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  12. smahtaz

    smahtaz Pimpin Ain't Easy Club Member

    I don't consider it a luxury pick. I want as many offensive weapons on the field as possible. And I prefer to see multiple personnel packages. There is only one ball to go around. Who are you going to cover?

    I do agree with you though, the linebackers are easily the weakest unit.
     
    Last edited: Jan 25, 2017
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  13. Surfs Up 99

    Surfs Up 99 Team Rosen

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    Excuse my ignorance, but considering all things being equal, including sub packages, which adds better value to a team? An All-pro ILB or an All-pro OLB?
     
  14. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    Lamp will be a beast, and he can be a swing tackle if needed.

    WKU also has a solid center that would be worth a look as a FA.

    WKU WR Taylor would not upset me at all if we picked him up during the draft either.
     
  15. Aqua4Ever04

    Aqua4Ever04 Write Travis Write Club Member

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    Part of that has to be the ability to plug those positions into different roles. Remember Robert Gallery? Dude was a massive bust at left tackle but kicked inside to guard and had a pretty good career.

    Same goes for linebacker. You can play around with weight and change their roles amongst the three positions as they really aren't that far off from one another.
     
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  16. Aqua4Ever04

    Aqua4Ever04 Write Travis Write Club Member

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    Ideally, your ILB would stay on the field for every play. Kiko Alonso was a 100% participant in basically every game that he was healthy for this year. In this defense, you'd typically someone a little bigger than Alonso in the middle because of the wide splits of the line up front.

    But the middle linebacker has to be able to cover in this scheme as well.

    Typically speaking the SAM backer is the heaviest (and usually stiffest) of the three players and that's why they are essentially a 35% snap player (he is who USUALLY subs out when the nickel corner comes into the game.

    So if you draft an outside backer that can cover, he's going to get a high percentage of snaps as well. But the MIKE should never really leave the field.

    Jarrad Davis could play MIKE or WILL and be in on all the sub packages.
     
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  17. Aqua4Ever04

    Aqua4Ever04 Write Travis Write Club Member

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    It's really not a terrible idea. Forrest Lamp or Dan Feeny are intriguing too. You get this offensive line buttoned up and these skill players and this quarterback we have are going to put pressure on every blade of grass on the field and score a **** load of points.

    Think about the number of drives we've had killed by offensive linemen over the years. Dallas Thomas, Billy Turner and Jamil Douglas did this on the reg in 2015. Last year was better, but there were plenty of James penalties, Albert getting beat by an inside rush, or Bushrod getting walked into the backfield.

    This is an on schedule offense and Ryan Tannehill is one of the best short to intermediate passers in football.

    You add that with a stout running game with a newly minted mauler at right guard, suddenly your third downs are always short yardage - you have the big play element (this team ranked second in big play efficiency in the entire NFL.)

    You do that, cut down the mistakes and blown assignments, and you're looking at a 28 points per game offense.

    Now the defense still has its struggles. But do you think slightly bolstering a weak defense has a great impact than finding the final one or two pieces to make this offense elite?

    Elite offense with bad defense > Above average offense with below average defense.

    All that said, Jarrad Davis and Calais Campbell could make a huge difference for this D.
     
  18. invid

    invid Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I also believe the Phins are struggling with this very same conflict. They could really put a bow on the OL this year but how much longer do you ignore the defense?
     
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  19. Finster

    Finster Finsterious Finologist

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    Not a great MLB draft, especially at the top, Davis' injury history is beyond worrisome, he's missed time to injury every year since becoming a starter, I wouldn't touch him with a 10ft pole in the 1st because of that alone.

    I like Foster, but not as a MLB, an ILB(thumper) in a 3-4 or a SLB in a 4-3 seems to be his fit.

    I like Cunningham as well, but again, not as a MLB, an ILB(coverage) in a 3-4 or a WLB in a 4-3.

    I would have no problem drafting either of these 2 guys in the 1st, we need LBs across the board imo, but I'm staying away from the oft injured Davis.

    I haven't paid much attention to the FAs, but perhaps we should be looking there for a MLB.
     
  20. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Zach is the man
     
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  21. Colmax

    Colmax Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Man, but I'd love for Miami to be in a position to get that luxury pick.

    Seriously.....we were kind of missing some things from the TE spot specifically that could burst this offense WIDE tf open.

    I don't disagree with with a stud MLB at that pick, I'd just love for Miami to be in a position to draft him. Hell, maybe someone trades up for him? He's definitely got "game changer" tattooed on his forehead.
     
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  22. Colmax

    Colmax Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Btw, I really like Anthony Walker, Jr. from Northwestern. Not at 22 necessarily, just...in general.

    He doesn't talk like your typical college kid. Seems to have the head to "QB" a defense:

     
    Last edited: Jan 26, 2017
  23. Electric Boogaloo

    Electric Boogaloo Inventor of the question mark

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    Last year they rolled the dice and inexplicably ignored the defense on draft day. The gamble paid off as well as remotely possible by hitting on Howard, late round Lippett surprising, Wake defying modern medicine and Alonso/Maxwell making plays despite being jettisoned by teams faster than Speedy Gonzales. And still we had the 30th ranked defense and ultimately caved against playoff caliber offenses when it mattered. That's with us rolling double sixes on our draft day bet.

    I can see drafting best available in round one if an elite guy in the trenches falls your way, but if you grab OJ Howard or another luxury offensive weapon, it only makes you marginally better in an area that is already your strength. If you feature/semi feature Howard, you by definition feature Landry/Stills/Parker less, not to mention the investment in Carroo. A upgrade to the defense just has so much expected marginal improvement, imho. To go Howard would almost require letting Stills or Landry walk at contract time.

    As for Jarred Davis, guy is a beast and played through alot of pain just to be on the field. Kid has guts and I wouldn't hesitate for a minute based on injury concerns. Completely different LB than Jelani as he plays downhill, sheds blocks and brings the wood on people. All things being equal, I'd hope for Ruben Foster over anyone else. But, we shall see.
     
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  24. invid

    invid Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Intriguing OLB option:

    Music NSFW

     
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  25. SICK

    SICK Lounge Moderator

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    I agree with this. We dominate on offense, and bring in FA with 2/3/4 round picks for linebacker. We are strong Dline, with Quddus/Jones back behind them, and Howard another year under his belt, we will benefit from just GETTING our own guys back as well. Howard would be deadly with Gase/our weapons.
     
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  26. danmarino

    danmarino Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The defense was ranked 18th, not 30th. If not for injuries to half of the defense, I suspect they would have been ranked higher considering they were 14th before that debacle to the Pats.

    Saying that, the main priority for this offseason should be LB's, CB/S, and depth for the defense.
     
  27. smahtaz

    smahtaz Pimpin Ain't Easy Club Member

    Can you imagine the 12 formations. 7 legit big blockers on the field at the same time and 2 of them have good hands and some speed. Not sure how to defend that.
     
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  28. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    ....interior olinemen.
     
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  29. Electric Boogaloo

    Electric Boogaloo Inventor of the question mark

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    Semantics, I suppose. We were 29th in yds/game. Granted, better in points allowed which is all that matters I guess. Still indicative of a defense in need of serious help given the inability to slow down the other team. If you think Jones and a healthy Jelani and Koa Misi would have fixed all our ills, then I'll just say I disagree. IAQ went down at the very end and I'd guess Maxwell was at least as good as Howard for that mid season stretch. Maybe not. Draft defense all the way, imho.
     
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  30. danmarino

    danmarino Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I agree, defense is first priority. However, I think if the defense had not suffered as many injuries as they did, we may have beaten the Pats the 2nd time around and would have been more competitive against the Steelers.
     
  31. Bob Danger

    Bob Danger New Member

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    Picking at 22 should be BPA...no reaches.
     
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  32. Colmax

    Colmax Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Would it be BPA for the team or BPA on the board?

    This is where I think it would be tough. Esp if the remaining players are somewhat close in ranking. Do you always go board BPA when a need is right there for the taking?

    Last year was an anomaly. Miami really lucked out, and I am ecstatic for it. Tunsil was a no-brainer where many thought he'd be a top-3 (if not overall top) pick.

    But I don't know that Miami has the chance at 22. Is there going to be a player that is head and shoulders above anyone else at 22? There will be some good ones, I'm sure. But do you simply go BPA for the sake of going BPA, esp when we have glaring needs? That's tough to consider.
     
  33. Bob Danger

    Bob Danger New Member

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    Best player on the board...not reaching for a player that could be perceived as a need.
     
  34. Colmax

    Colmax Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    What if he's not a reach? Just not overall as good as a player left.

    Let's say he's a team need AND warranted for #22. But there's this nearly can't miss player that's just not what you need on your team.

    Let's just throw in generalities:

    - If you have a "franchise" QB, and he's young. Let's say...Prescott. If there's a QB there who's BPA, or in their case, a RB. What do you do then? Do you still take the QB or RB if you're Dallas if that player is simply BPA?
     
  35. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    People couch this by saying pick either "BPA" or "Need", but I think the formula is simply BPA multiplied by Need.

    So have your BPA rating and multiply that by some number from 0 to 1 that represents the relative need of that position and that should be your final rating.
     
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  36. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

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    It does depend to some degree on team needs. For Miami, you could easily just go with the BPA on defense left in the draft. It would have to be an exceptional talent on offense and a position of need to make me pull the trigger on that side.

    I'd go offense at #22 for Howard the TE, and think about it for a stud Guard. We could move Albert on day two for a pick and move Tunsil to LT if we got a stud LG at #22 for example (assuming we kept Albert up to that point). Howard would make the offense toward the 'very good to great' level and with less injuries on defense that side could be 'average'. Good for another winning season and maybe not so quick a playoff exit.
     
  37. Piston Honda

    Piston Honda Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I agree that'd be a mean lineup. But there's only one football and if you're gonna pay Stills, Landry, eventually Parker, and keep Ajayi in his role as table setter, then adding a guy like Howard vould become overkill IMO.
     
  38. smahtaz

    smahtaz Pimpin Ain't Easy Club Member

    I know what you're saying. Some players are going to go with the most possible money, some are going to go with the best chance they have to win a championship.

    Is there overkill in the NFL? I don't think you can have too many offensive weapons.
     
  39. Piston Honda

    Piston Honda Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Youre right, too many weapons is a good problem to have, role players are important too though.
     
  40. Aqua4Ever04

    Aqua4Ever04 Write Travis Write Club Member

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    I need to add Hassan Reddick to this group.
     
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