In Hindsight do you still trade Marshall for Eggnew and a 3rd rounder?

No, that's not what a scouting report does. They do not extrapolate past data into theoretical. They measure and describe the empirical.

I'm still waiting on you to show me someone who actually demonstrably does this. Instead, you're giving me this:

Yes, it is similar to what scouts do. It's nothing like what you are doing, or claim they do however.

There's also the part about actually, you know, justifying how this is at all even the slightest bit useful.

But hey, CK says you're right on, so there's that.

 

You are creating the Colossus of Rhodes of straw men. There is no evidence, or even any allegation, that anyone forged any signatures.

If Parcells was doing things Ireland objected to he could technically go to the commissioner's office about it, but doing so would hurt nobody but the team he works for and himself, as he would get fired. It would generate a lot of scandal and media coverage and would paint Ireland as a jerk who is not a "team player" that no team would want to hire. In short, it would be career suicide with no potential benefits.

 

Somewhere, Heinlein is applauding!

 

I'm not sure if you convoluted this out of desire to deceive or genuine ignorance.

This is actually a great job of proving that removing Marshall from the offense has had no effect on the offense. The team has been able to scale Hartline and Bess' production without losing any efficiency.

 

So then this argument is now moot.

Not every sense. Again, he wasn't better as a Miami Dolphin nor is he a better citizen and teammate.

I'm not questioning numbers power, just the interpretation of some numbers to our given discussion.

Again, I don't think they correlate very well to anything meaningful in this discussion, for them to matter more, there has to be the assumption that usage was based on actual production and not potential. If Hartline wasn't going to get the ball more regardless of what he did, then usage isn't relevant.

 

You don't understand what a scouting report is, and the efforts that are made to produce one.

and CK didn't say that I was right on. He said that you were making no sense whatsoever.

But prideful you are. I will give you that.

 

It wasn't used to make statistical projections. It gave statistical support to what people already knew, i.e., that Bosh is a good shooter who can provide needed spacing, etc. It gives the video of each play so one can see if the numbers really match up to what is actually happening on the court. But the team didn't say, "Bosh shot ___% from _____ location in 2011-2012 so we predict that he will shoot _____% from ____ in 2012-13 and consequently average ____ pts per game"

 

you are arguing reason again. You could be right or wrong. It is opinion.

I was making a hard 1 +1 argument that cannot be refuted.

 

Funny. That is exactly what they did. Except that they did it prior to the 10-11' season.

 

I will admit I'm not an expert on NFL stats, but this is EXACTLY how it works in Baseball. If we look at the last 5 years of Miguel Cabrera's numbers, we can accurately predict what his stats will be next year. Nate Silver did this with PECOTA, and they were pretty damned accurate. You would think there's a way to do it in the NFL (and definitely the NBA, for that matter) but again I'm no expert.

 

In fact I specifically said I still disagree with you on whether they should've traded Marshall or not.

But Disgustipate has never allowed cast iron fact or logic to deter him from pretending that A) of course he is correct, and B) whoever is arguing against him is the stupidest person to ever be ever. Ever. I have no doubt he's memorized every episode of House and has posters of Hugh Laurie on the wall.

 

And for those curious, if Brian Hartline were to be targeted as much as Brandon Marshall has this season, he would end up with 1600 yds receiving.

 

It has been refuted though. A number of times. And you are arguing reason. You didn't provide those numbers without promoting a point or stance. No one is arguing you made the numbers up. I believe you to be honest enough to get real numbers. But we're saying the numbers you posted don't prove your point.

 

No. That's not what they did. They looked at the numbers, noticed that Bosh was better ont he right side than the left side, and made some adjustments to position him on the right side more. They didn't make any numerical projections -- they simply made adjustments based on the data.

http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/mi...6/how-advanced-stats-changed-chris-boshs-game

 

It is fundamentally either empirical data in a game-planning context, or a description of physical skills and tendencies in a draft context.

It's not "What would this player have produced if you theoretically took another player off of his roster the year before, put him in that spot and crashed some numbers together like a child with Hot Wheels"

You're generally trying waaaay too hard, but that right there is great.

 

its pretty simple b marsh had 4 man coverage roll his way you wont see that ever happen with hartline now whether he under produced as a dolphin or not is up for debate but he opened up the field for everyone else and helped bush out a lot last year.

 

Sometimes projections are right and sometimes they are wrong. For example, if you looked at Hanley Ramirez's stats from '06-'10 to project them for 2011, you (or Nate silver) would have been very wrong.

 

It didn't help Brian Hartline and Davone Bess at all, and those should be the most logical and easy to note beneficiaries of whatever Marshall does in terms of attention.

They've been better off without Brandon Marshall.

 

They're not just right "sometimes". That makes it sound as though it's a 50/50 proposition, when that couldn't be further from the truth.

 

Exactly. And any statistical methodology one would use would predict that if Brian Hartline received as many targets as Brandon Marshall, he would be just as productive.

 

I think there is a tremendous amount of irony in using Nate Silver to justify what Section126 is trying to do, considering he spent a good portion of the Presidential campaign maligning Silver while promoting his own statistical analyses which were pretty much spectacularly wrong.

 

Good point, they had Sean Smith rated the #1 CB not to long ago......

The validity of their system has to come into play after that.....there are stats, but they dont factor in the eye test either.....whomever thought Sean Smith was anywhere near the #1 rated CB in ANY point of football this year, is just plain fooling themselves.....

 

From a yards standpoint, yes. But I think what many are saying is that Marshall's impact went beyond just bulk yards.

Maybe look at this way, you have two Third Baseman, Mark Reynolds and David Wright. You lose David Wright, and need to replace his production. You look at Wright's HR's and say "Ok, he's averaging about 26 a year, and Reynolds has averaged over 30. Problem solved!" Well, no. You've replaced one component, but what about the others such as OBP, the #1 factor in determining runs created/scored?

I think that's the disconnect here. We're saying Hartline is replacing Marshall's production because of his YPT efficiency, without weighing and taking the other factors into consideration. That's what I take from this whole thing, anyway.

 

This is false your looking at inflated numbers because bess and hartline are getting 70% of the balls thrown to them there's no 3rd option this year. Devon Bess already has 40 more targets this year and only 200 yards and 2 less tds to show for it. Also Hartline has 40 more targets for 400 yards so you can see hes improved but his avg yard per catch is down and he only has 1 td like last year. Fasano also had 200 more yards and an extra td by this time last year.

 

He never was. He was top 10. I don't see how that is a problem, though. He was playing great.

 

And I'm assuming the other factors here are TDs? So what exactly best projects TDs scored??? We are getting very close to making a breakthrough here

 

Heh. Maybe, but they are two different models.

 

Ok my bad, then it was their secondary as a whole.....

Sure Smith was playing great, until they played an actual decent QB....

 

Not just TD's, no. That is a factor though. For me, a lot of it has to do with how defenses are playing against Bess and Hartline. When you don't respect the speed/vertical abilities of an offense, it shortens the field. So yeah, you get a lot of underneath yards. Awesome. How are those "efficient" yards being converted to points?

 

Well, no. He's played well against solid QBs. They've rated him positively against Cincinnatti and NE. His issue is consistency.

 

Getting a lot of underneath yards should be manifested in a lower YPT, no?

 

It would appear to me that the lack of a top receiver has stifled Tannehill's development far more than Marshall would have. How exactly you blame Marshall for the Bears losing the game last Sunday is beyond me.
You should note that Marshall has not been a member of the Dolphins this year and the Dolphins have already lost 8 of their 13 games. I guess you will figure out a way to blame him for all those Dolphin loses, since you seem to think that his 160 receiving yards against the Vikings some how contributed to the Bears losing.

As far as the trade Ireland made to get rid of Marshall goes. It was one in a number of terrible personnel decisions made by Ireland since he became the team GM five years ago. I doubt if Egnew will even be on the team in 2013.

 

Not necessarily, because chances are you're going to convert them into a reception at a higher rate. Which would you rather have throughout the course of the game; 8 - 40 yard passes and two are caught, or 8 - 10 yard passes and all 8 are caught? Same YPT, right?

 

The reception rate isn't relevant, because its measured per-target.

And yes, 2 40-yd passes are essentially worth the same as 8 10-yd passes. There has been a plenty of research done that shows YPA to be most predictive of future outcomes.

 

Per target, as in, per times a receiver is thrown to, right? So why would reception rate not be relevant? 10 yard passes SHOULD mean a higher conversion, hence the YPT is going to be maintained.

 

If all you're getting is 10 yard passes, you would need to catch 80% in order to have 8 YPT. Its not a metric that can be inflated.

 

People are ignoring one of the more humerous facts involved in this....

Marshall was basically traded on the drop of a dime, they heard about the nightclub incident and actually thought they were pulling a fast one by trading him to Chicago for 2 3rd rd picks. If you really were just trading him based on other things wouldn't you have shopped around and gotten a better deal?? Ofcourse you would've.

So our moronic GM tried to outsmart everyone and gave away an elite WR for 2-3rd rounders....and people wonder why I ont trust him.

 

That doesn't really constitute a fact? Especially when they claim they were shopping him for weeks already?

 

Here's Marshall/Bess/Hartline 2011:

283 targets, 167 catches(59.0%) 2300 yards, 13.77 yards per catch, 26 drops, 11 touchdowns

2012 projected Bess/Hartline:

241 targets, 151 catches(62.6% ), 2096 yards, 13.88 yards per catch, 13 drops, 2 touchdowns.

The only quantitative loss is in terms of touchdowns. That's problematic, but ultimately, the team is performing much better in the red zone. I'm not sure Brandon Marshall, whose red zone touchdown % was not good at all, would have helped all that tremendous to improve the team's ability here.

 

I have no idea how you can look at this team and conclude it is better without Marshall. This team has scored less points so far this season than it did over the first 13 games last season. Even though the Dolphins started out 0-7 last year.

The fact is that Marshall has nine TD's this season, while Bess and Hartline have a grand total of 2 TD's between them. The reality is that Marshall is a quality #1 receiver, while Hartline and Bess would be no better than #3 receivers on most good teams in the NFL. The only reason they even have the catches they have this season is because Ireland has failed to provide the team with any other WR's who could make the rosters of the majority of the teams in the NFL.

When you only have two receivers who are at least mediocre, it only makes sense they will be the receivers your QB is going to throw the ball to. At least if the Dolphins still had Marshall on the team, Tannehill would have three options instead of two, and one of them, (Marshall), would be a pro bowl caliber receiver.