If it ends Sunday don’t be upset

If we end the season 10-6 I will be happy. If we end the season 11-5 and in the playoffs, I will be ecstatic.

No, if we don't make the playoffs what's the point of being happy? Because the future looks bright? I'm not about to spend 20 years of my life cheering for a team to put a football in a box. I'm so sick of people getting participation trophies, in a game where 14/32 can qualify to compete not making it is disappointment, plain and simple.

The heck with all that- I'll be upset if they lose just like everyone else will. I still think Cleveland will lose as well, it's just the Cleveland thing to do, so I'm hoping that we'd be in either way.

But as long as Miami is taking that field and fighting like dogs to pull out this victory, I'm going to be just as frenzied rooting them on. I honestly don't think some of you realize how hardcore, berserk they'll go tomorrow...I still think they win outright. Yet if we lose, I'll ride that low with them knowing that they gave it their all and just didn't have enough pieces to compete with the elite. That's all we can do as fans and I personally won't just shrug it off after they had such an amazing season.

We've already overachieved. I'm happy no matter the outcome tomorrow. Next year however I won't be happy if we don't make the playoffs. It shouldn't take more than 3 years to rebuild. But right now, and for this year, I'm happy.

Of course I'd still be upset, but I wouldn't be mad or frustrated. There's a difference there.

Go phins

Nope, I’m beyond excited for what we got to experience this year which was well beyond expectations. We reload with next years draft and this team could legitimately be the best team in the nfl in 2 years.

I will be encouraged for the future because of what Flores can get out of his players. But I will still be upset, because we did what we've done so many times before in years past when we were mediocre, which is lose a game we should have won that keeps us out of the playoffs. The Denver game. I'd rather stay sucky than go back to being perpetually mediocre.

I'll be disappointed, no getting around it. We had a shot at the playoffs and fell short. Even if we make it in and get bounced in the Wildcard round, I'll be disappointed. Nothing but a Super Bowl win would be completely satisfying.

Give me a day or two after our season ends though, and I'll be happy with Miami being able to at least double their win total from last year, and we'll have a ton of draft capital to spend to improve the offense. Plus Tua should take a leap forward as a starting QB in the NFL in his second season -with a full training camp and preseason games to help prepare him.

I will be upset if they don't make it to the playoffs. I'll be even more upset if it's because Tua is throwing passes to Marcus Kemp because Devante Parker can't play.

Time to man up today, Parker.

"Rick 1966 wrote:

I will be encouraged for the future because of what Flores can get out of his players. But I will still be upset, because we did what we've done so many times before in years past when we were mediocre, which is lose a game we should have won that keeps us out of the playoffs. The Denver game. I'd rather stay sucky than go back to being perpetually mediocre.

Just about every team loses a game they should win each year. We also won games we shpuldnt have.

"AGuyNamedAlex wrote:

Just about every team loses a game they should win each year. We also won games we shpuldnt have.

If we want to become a perennial playoff team instead of an also-ran, the first order of business is to take care of business in the games we're supposed to win.

Look, I'm calling it out and if it's too blunt for some thin skinned folks...mi-yan-ham-ni-dah!

We aren't even supposed to be in this position right now. We were expected to finish this season 6-10 to 8-8 at best! Let's take a reality check on the Dolphins, shall we?

-This 2020 team is the 3rd youngest team in the NFL with the second oldest player being Van Noy at 29
-The 2019 team was THE youngest team in the league.
-There are 22 new players on the roster this season...22 out of 53.
-Our starting quarterback was a 38 year old that's been cut by 7 different teams because he's so bad at consistent play.
-Our current starting quarterback is a rookie
-Our BEST wide receiver is DeVante Parker...a man whose head we were all calling for because he was ALWAYS hurt.
- We have no reliable running back that can gain 5 yards a carry.

These are just SOME of the factors working against the Dolphins. On paper, we should be sitting at 6 to 7 wins at BEST and yet, here we are just one win away from a guaranteed playoff appearance and instead of finishing the season at 8-8 at best, we're already at 10-5 with a shot at finishing the season at 11-5.

Even if we lose today's game and finish the season at 10-6, I'm ecstatic! I can already see other teams looking at their schedule, seeing they have to play the Dolphins and their reaction is "oh CRAP! We play the Fins next week?'...causing instant nausea and making them as scared as two hookers in church on Sunday.

Regardless of today's game, this TEAM is set for dominating success for years to come!

"The_Dark_Knight wrote:

We aren't even supposed to be in this position right now. We were expected to...

Expected by who? Do you mean the media who couldn't name our five best players over the past decade? Those guys?

The point here is that good teams control their destiny. We didn't luck into a 10 or 11-win season...we went out and earned every single one of those victories. Now is not the time to give up on the franchise by saying "good enough", now is the time to elevate and play the game of your life. That's what playoff teams do and a win today sets the tone for December football for the next several years.

But more important, winning today gives this entire team critical playoff experience. Flores has been telling his guys all week that this is a playoff game and it will define who we are as a squad. The team NEEDS this win however unlikely it may be, they need it for so many different reasons.

While a loss in the grand scheme of things would be okay, players and coaches simply don't think that way on game day....you can't be a professional and expect to lose. Losing means you didn't work hard enough, didn't do everything possible within your control. That's why Miami is absolutely going to war today...it means that much to them and their future success.

So put away those participation trophies for now and let's see how Miami responds in a "can't lose" game. You might be pleasantly surprised this afternoon.

"KeyFin wrote:

Expected by who?

By Vegas. Expected wins was 6 for this year, and the standard deviation in the difference between Vegas expected wins and actual wins is 2. That means we're already 2 standard deviations above expected, meaning that this season is already a 1 in 20 years type of thing.

"KeyFin wrote:

The point here is that good teams control their destiny. We didn't luck into a 10 or 11-win season...we went out and earned every single one of those victories. Now is not the time to give up on the franchise by saying "good enough", now is the time to elevate and play the game of your life. That's what playoff teams do and a win today sets the tone for December football for the next several years.

Obviously you do what you can to win. No one is suggesting otherwise. But the question was how are you going to feel if we don't win, and there's NO reason to be disappointed in the season as a whole if we lose.

On another note, the Vegas lines for today's game have swung again in favor of the Dolphins. We're favored now by 1 point so maybe beating the Bills today is much more realistic than it would have been with the Bills at full strength.

"cbrad wrote:

By Vegas. Expected wins was 6 for this year, and the standard deviation in the difference between Vegas expected wins and actual wins is 2. That means we're already 2 standard deviations above expected, meaning that this season is already a 1 in 20 years type of thing.

That's not true AT ALL. Vegas odds are determined by the volumes of bets on both sides of the equation. If it tilts too much to one side, the betting line changes to encourage bets going the opposite way. That's exactly what happened this past week with Miami and Buffalo....sportsbooks are simply hedging their bets so they won't lose their asses on any one game.

For the expected six wins, that's what Vegas believed based on their own research and the betting trends they saw. At the end of the day though, it's simply an educated guess. Miami was a complete unknown this season after a full rebuild- nobody could have predicted that our defense would be this dominant. But most bets aren't based on reality- they're simply chasing trends or following instincts.

I get what you are saying; it was an amazing season that surprised all of us. But I'm telling you from an athlete's perspective that this season is not over yet. It's never over until it's over and today is not the time to sell this team short.

Yeah I sure hope that's the message Flores is drilling into the teams head.

Oh wait no I don't I'm hoping he gets them pumped up to play well above their talent level and BEAT THE MANURE OUT OF FLUFFY JILLS.

No I get the sentiment OP. But I'm 35 this team has been a miserable franchise about as long as I can remember. I hope you don't have aspirations of beings motivational speaker.

The sad thing? I'm probably one of the most young large block age brackets of fans, that feel like the Dolphins have already stolen half their lives

Beyond that if we don't make it it's out our control and I'll move on with another shit year.

"KeyFin wrote:

That's not true AT ALL. Vegas odds are determined by the volumes of bets on both sides of the equation. If it tilts too much to one side, the betting line changes to encourage bets going the opposite way. That's exactly what happened this past week with Miami and Buffalo....sportsbooks are simply hedging their bets so they won't lose their asses on any one game.

For the expected six wins, that's what Vegas believed based on their own research and the betting trends they saw. At the end of the day though, it's simply an educated guess. Miami was a complete unknown this season after a full rebuild- nobody could have predicted that our defense would be this dominant. But most bets aren't based on reality- they're simply chasing trends or following instincts.

I get what you are saying; it was an amazing season that surprised all of us. But I'm telling you from an athlete's perspective that this season is not over yet. It's never over until it's over and today is not the time to sell this team short.

Everything I said is true. It's the historical difference between "expected" and "actual". It doesn't matter how Vegas arrives at that expected value, that's what was expected by Vegas (closing odds). You're acting like there's some way of determining what the "true" expected value is. There is no such way. What I said is true. Our win total this season relative to (Vegas) expected is already a 1 in 20 season event.

"cbrad wrote:

Everything I said is true. It's the historical difference between "expected" and "actual". It doesn't matter how Vegas arrives at that expected value, that's what was expected by Vegas (closing odds). You're acting like there's some way of determining what the "true" expected value is. There is no such way. What I said is true. Our win total this season relative to (Vegas) expected is already a 1 in 20 season event.

Nope, what I'm saying is that the Vegas odds mean nothing...it's based on speculation over the prior season. How could they possibly predict what this team would be when everyone was new?

"KeyFin wrote:

Nope, what I'm saying is that the Vegas odds mean nothing...it's based on speculation over the prior season. How could they possibly predict what this team would be when everyone was new?

Ah.. except that the best known predictors of win% are models that only slightly modify Vegas odds. There is still no other known method that, without incorporating Vegas odds, can beat Vegas odds alone.

This is a case where crowd intelligence is the best known source for predicting outcomes. And it makes sense: develop a better method and eventually that gets incorporated into Vegas odds lol. So it's hard to say Vegas odds mean "nothing".

Well, pretty clear that it's ending.

And yes, I am upset. They look lot hot garbage.

"Rick 1966 wrote:

And yes, I am upset. They look lot hot garbage.

It's not really over 8f we score because Allen is done I think. We can bottle up a backup QB. That punt return hurts though.

I'm not happy at all. But my dissatisfaction is tempered by the fact that (a) I never expected to be in this position this season and (b) if we're being outclassed so badly, we won't make any noise in the playoffs anyway. If we don't come back (keep hope alive), let's hope that this will leave a salty taste in the mouths of the players that can fuel our play next season. With that being said, I'm not upset so much as let down by the fact that we saved our worst performance for the most important game.

I'm upset that Flores actually thinks that Tua gives us the best chance to win. Really?