In most scenarios, you would be right, but these "draft experts" you see on TV or read online have zero accountability. Think about the simple notion that Matt Millen, possibly one of the worst evaluators of talent in modern history, is a football analyst. If the Mel Kipers and Todd McShays of the world totally misevaluate a prospect what are the repercussions? Nothing. They will be back next year around this time with a new mock draft and new flavor of the month. Most of your "draft specialist" either never worked in the NFL or were fired from an NFL scouting front office position. You propose that we just blindly follow those who had previously been fired or never worked in the NFL because they get paid to watch film. But alas, let's draft Jamar Fletcher 2.0. Look, in 2001, The USA Today had him going ahead of us. We got great value.
The problem with your argument is that it is predicated on me being wrong which I am not. Hopefully that clarifies your concerns.
Can you give us some testable predictions about how some draftees will pan out so we can see precisely how good your evaluation skills are? Preferably predictions about how they'll do as rookies so we don't have to wait 3-4 years.
