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Hurricane Bill

Discussion in 'Science & Technology' started by cnc66, Aug 17, 2009.

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  1. cnc66

    cnc66 wiley veteran, bad spelur Luxury Box

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    Bill has become the first hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic Basin season. The earliest models had this system on top of Key West August 23 but the very next day all the models shifted east taking the expected northward turn into the Atlantic instead of up Florida's spine, or into New Orleans. To this point almost without exception, the forecast track has moved eastward with every advisory. I will peruse and post some model animations this afternoon for your viewing pleasure.

    This storm is expected to intensify quickly into a major hurricane and will be a danger to Bermuda and our friend Richard about dawn on Saturday. There is also some chance that this monster could impact the American northeast coast about Monday, one week from today. Here is the 5 day forecast;

    [​IMG]

    Here is a sequence of some satellite loops showing the growth and deepening of Bill across the last three days;

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    Visible loop

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    I think I caught this just before they pulled it before loading the first visible loop of the day like the one above;

    [​IMG]

    A sequence of ensemble models for comparison;

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    Have a nice day!
     
  2. opfinistic

    opfinistic Braaaaains!

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    Peeking in Nabo's Basement
    Been a fairly quiet season so far. Hopefully Bill avoids landfall, or peters out before he gets too big for his britches.
     
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  3. Conuficus

    Conuficus Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Well away from here
    Thanks Marty. :up:

    Please no one panic. Firstly, let me say that due to the presence of the Gulf Stream; which turns and begins it's ENE track back to Europe, most Hurricanes end up taking this Northward turn. Typically the storms will pass to the West of the island as the Gulf Stream tends to now drag the storm rather than push it.

    Also, unlike the U.S. we don't build our houses from wood. We use concrete blocks that can weigh 25lbs+ a piece. Then we install re-bar throughout 1/4'' to 5/8'' depending on where within the structure. On top of that we fill in each sill on the concrete blocks with cement. A Bermudian roof is made from limestone slabs nailed and cemented down. Most times a few people will lose some their roof, but mostly it is trees and a loss of electricity that are culprits.

    The last major hurricane hit us bad, and actually 3 people died. That was the first time anyone died in over 50 years. 2 of the 3 were police officers who went out to rescue someone dumb enough to venture outside. Sad day, but again the first time anyone died in 50 + years, so generally we make out alright.

    So long as the storm passes more than 150 miles away, it won't be anything for us locals to panic over. We take it seriously, but not with a panic of any kind. This is the time of year we see them, and really for us September is the bad month; or at least the first two weeks.

    Thanks again for the concern, but even with this as a possible deterent to weekend fun there are people who are in much worse situations than me today. A country like Haiti for instance lacks the money, supplies and infrastructure to bounce back quickly. Typically in Bermuda everyone is back to work within 2 days max, and most people have power back within 5 days depending on the severity of course.
     
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  4. njfinfan

    njfinfan The First Lady

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    Thanks for the info Richard.
     
  5. Conuficus

    Conuficus Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Well away from here
    Thanks for the concern guys. :up:

    Bermudian Hurricane tradition: close the shutters and drink a bit, maybe play cards. Funny thing though...........lots of Hurricane babies. :wink2:
     
  6. BigDogsHunt

    BigDogsHunt Enough talk...prove it!

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    Hurricane Bill.?....Congress will screw it up and pork it till it cant be recoginzed. LOL!!!!!

    just kidding...thanks for the update my friend.
     
  7. cnc66

    cnc66 wiley veteran, bad spelur Luxury Box

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    Not much new on the Bill front. He appeared to slow and drift west of the forecast points last night, reopening concern on the weather board that he will not make the northward turn in time to miss the east coast. The models do not yet reflect any of this concern bit it could be horrific it Bill made landfall in the northeast as a cat 3. Here is the latest 5 day forecast;

    [​IMG]

    This mornings IR sat loop;

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    The ensemble forecast.. pretty tight grouping;

    [​IMG]
     
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  8. cnc66

    cnc66 wiley veteran, bad spelur Luxury Box

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    Good morning! Bill has exploded into a Category 4 hurricane. The scary part is that the models are now drifting back west. What was the last two plus days looking like the only place in danger was Bermuda now has parts of Maine and Halifax Canada inside the cone of uncertainty. Stay tuned!

    All images courtesy of Weather Underground Tropical pages

    Current 5 day forecast;

    [​IMG]

    current models;

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    The 5am IR satellite loop;

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  9. Soundwave

    Soundwave Phins Sympathizer..

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    I have a lot of friends and family in Halifax.

    Thanks for the heads up.
     
  10. cnc66

    cnc66 wiley veteran, bad spelur Luxury Box

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    For now Bill looks very likely to impact them. One of the weather folks posted a remarkable map of shipwrecks around Sable Island. It had started as concern about the wild horses, I guess they took a beating from a storm some years back and then the map link was posted. Being interested in shipwrecks I was pretty amazed at the amount of them around the island. Here is the link if anyone else is interested.

    Sable Island Shipwrecks
     
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  11. cnc66

    cnc66 wiley veteran, bad spelur Luxury Box

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    Welll, haven't made any updates because really nothing important has changed. Bill missed Bermuda to their west giving them 30+mph winds and heavy seas outside the reefs. Please credit denmar and weather underground for these photos. Denmar has a nice collection of Bermuda views for those not familiar with Richards home island.

    Denmar photos

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    Bill underwent an eye replacement cycle over night and the new one is 50 miles across. Because of the ERC there would normally be about a 12 hour delay in any intensification. He will be crossing the Gulfstream with little wind shear so what will likely happen here is Bill will not lose power for another half day or so. Things are better today for Halifax than two days ago, but still dangerous.

    [​IMG]


    The trough that is the mechanism pushing Bill eastwards looks like this.. pretty amazing to me that Bill is actually pushing back;

    [​IMG]

    I would point out that had this trough been delayed even one day New York City to Boston could have had an epic disaster. Bill could have arrived a HUGH cat 2 making all those Discovery Channel disaster scenarios come true with vengeance. For now, the entire eastern seaboard is beginning to be pummeled by large wave action that will cost maybe billions before it is over.

    Bill's eastern edge is beginning to show on Nexrad radars but it isn't interesting enough to post yet.. no eyewall to see. Here is a wave height animation;

    [​IMG]
    Please credit P451 at Weather Underground for this image

    The American eastern seaboard was spared many deaths and an epic disaster, they/we got very lucky. Let us hope that Bills curve to the east strengthens so Halifax can also be spared.
     
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