How to Value NFL Draft Picks

That was interesting. I do think that the new salary cap may further alter those values. Maybe teams will take more risks with early picks since the salary cap penalty isn't as severe. Or perhaps failed top 10 QBs picks will be cut more quickly for the same reason. I also wonder how much variation there would be from position to position.

 

The interesting thing from that method is Rd #7, picks #219 to #223 for some reason have a rising value compared to picks #202 to #214.

And as per my philosophy, the Draft is overrated as the sole means of talent acquisition at a low cost, imo the perception that it is comes from Draft Hype, the period from mid January all the way until draft days, as well as scouts who lack a sort of feel for players outside of their raw numbers or even film.

For example, how did Charles Clay last say late into the draft?

 

B/c teams weren't sure exactly what role he'd play IMO.

 

This is one of the few areas that interest me about player acquisition TP, and apparently he was seen purely as a fullback.

The fact he had 1k yds as a Wr meant nothing, or the fact he played running back with good success, also meant nothing, he was a fullback, that is all he was going to be.

But some teams are better at finding those gems then others, for example 9 teams contacted the BC Lions to find out FA status.

 

I think a better question is how did Doug Baldwin go undrafted?

 

Where many people saw "uncertainty", I saw versatility, and it was one of the reasons I really liked Clay. That, and I felt he was a very good teammate, selfless, and passionate about the game.

Considering late round & free agent rookies represent a greater number of camp bodies than 1st & 2nd round picks, I think it's crucial to have an evaluator who can dig out those gems you speak of.

 

There are Baldwin's every yr DDupree, and with the CFL to NFL situation clearer, there will be more traffic from that league to NFL camps.

BUT, there is no hype to signing a DBaldwin or John Chick or Brandon Browner, now a draft, now THERE they can hype guys up.

This is one of my largest disappointments with Sparano and Co, we USED to find guys like that, now we no longer even really look for them.

Or just stick them on ST, Lexxy, Pruitt, Wallace et al, guys like that used to see the ball in Miami, not any longer.

 

I think it is a product of the Draft Hype machine that actual performances are not tracked, for example a UDFA/late rd pick vs earlier rd picks.

For example, we may think Gates has underwhelmed, but he is a 4th rd pick, Pats just waived a high #3 Taylor Pryce, Wr, and yet Belicheck is a "genius" even when Gates has outperformed Pryce.

Hell, for that matter, a colourable argument can be made that Trusnik is more productive then half of the Lb's drafted this past yr.

 

I think you got Doug Baldwin confused with Brandon Browner who is from the CFL. Doug Baldwin is the wide receiver rookie from Stanford.

 

Nossir, I knew who both are and where they originated from, they both just illustrate the point that the Draft is overhyped, that you can find guys who can produce in the NFL from the AFL to the CFL to the UDFA process to walking the street for months after being waived.


Guys who are drafted though, are studied by most fans, meaning the 6th rd pick may turn out to be a short timer, the UDFA who plays and produces never received that same scrutiny.

To quote a NFL radio announcer "how did Brandon Browner stay hidden in the CFL for 5 yrs!!!"

Answer..he wasn't, he had workouts from several teams, including the Dolphins, they all passed on him.

Meanwhile, his 3 int's would lead the Dolphins, his 42 tackles would be 1 ahead of SS24 for the most among Cb's, and his 1 defensive TD would be our only one for the yr.