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How productive can Brian Hartline be in this offense?

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Die_Nasty, Jun 12, 2012.

  1. Die_Nasty

    Die_Nasty Well-Known Member

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    This is an interesting article I came across that compares the production of a player like Pierre Garcon to Brian Hartline. With solid QB play, and an efficient passing offense that Joe Philbin is bringing, I think that Hartline can be a very productive receiver for us. :yes:

    http://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2012/turn-on-your-hartline

    *Sorry if you dont like Fantasy :P
     
    Last edited: Jun 12, 2012
  2. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I think Hartline could be pretty productive in this new offense. It's not easy to project from a numbers standpoint. His yards per snap was down significantly because with Brandon Marshall here and the emphasis being placed on getting the ball in his hands, Hartline was only targeted 66 times on 454 snaps.

    That's the lowest it has been since Hartline joined. In 2009 he was targeted 54 times but on only 253 snaps. In 2010 he was targeted 68 times in 404 snaps. Going from target pctg of 21.3% to 16.8% and then 14.5%...that can be directly attributed to Marshall.

    He produced 9.37 yards per attempt in 2009, 9.04 yards per attempt in 2010 and 8.32 yards per attempts in 2011. But I think the thing to note about the latter is if you tally up the pass interference penalty yardage he drew, that's back up to about 9.0 yards per attempt.

    Let's say that is about what he produces now that he's settled in as a player, until such time as he's actually got genuinely good QB play pushing him up. If his target percentage goes back up to about 21%, which is entirely reasonable with Marshall gone (Brandon was closer to 26%), and Hartline's snap count increases (let's say to the same participation rate of Greg Jennings in Green Bay) then we should be talking about 900 yards. I think that's a good, conservative estimate for his fantasy worth. To do better than that, he'd have to increase his yards per attempt. He could do that by keeping his feet better after the catch, or by increasing his catch percentage. To do either, you'd have to see either an increase in accuracy from the quarterback. If David Garrard plays, I think that could happen and that's why I've been saying I think 1000 yards is possible for Hartline.
     
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  3. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Greg Jennings' target percentage was 20% in Green Bay both 2010 and 2011.
    Jordy Nelson's was 21% in 2010 and 20% in 2011.
    James Jones' was 18.5% in 2010 and 15% in 2011.
    Donald Driver's was 16.5% in 2010 and only 14% in 2011.

    I think Hartline and Bess are definitely Miami's #1 and #2 receivers even with Chad OchoCinco signed. Based on the tendencies up in Green Bay he should be targeted about 20% of the time. If he is and he's producing 9 yards per attempt then he should be producing pretty close to around 900 yards. Again I think that's a nice conservative estimate.
     
  4. PhinsRDbest

    PhinsRDbest Transform and Transcend

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    the next dimension
    I would say his production could be slightly better than average.
     
  5. miamiron

    miamiron There's always next year

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    I've never heard of a #1 wide receiver who has 1 td in the past 26 games

    Here's hoping someone shows him where the end zone is located
     
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  6. P h i N s A N i T y

    P h i N s A N i T y My Porpoise in Life

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    The potential is there.... not sure about him from a fantasy perspective. Interested to see how much hype he garners pre-season though. With this type of offense it's a flavor of the week type thing. Of course it always depends on quarterback play too, but if you manage to get him as a bench Wr, your looking pretty good my friend. I'd still take someone like Doug Baldwin ahead of him at this point.

    edit: I meant Jonathan Baldwin, but both apply I guess !
     
  7. slickj101

    slickj101 Is Water

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    I don't think he should be drafted in most leagues. Not right now at least.
     
  8. Die_Nasty

    Die_Nasty Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, I wouldn't draft him in a redraft league. This is talking about dynasty though.
     

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