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Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by KeyFin, Dec 13, 2018.
....You know? This isn't implausible.
An act of God.
It really isn't. The Steelers and Ravens could each lose both. I think it's a decent chance Indy and the Titans lose one as well. The biggest ingredient is us winning two. Other than that, we just need a two way tie with the Titans or a 3-way tie with any of the 4 teams.
We can't tie Pitt (since they have that tie game) so it's probably easier if they win the division. They're the one hurdle...them going 1-1 means they are a lock for the wildcard if they don't take the division. So we really want them going 0-2 or 2-0....either way works.
Make the playoffs? For what? To be the whipping boy of a better team.
Redskins defense is tough. It's unlikely but possible.
Yeah and likely getting BTFO by Pittsburgh or Baltiless.
Getting into the playoffs is the first step to winning a Super Bowl.
If a team gets into the playoffs, guess what? They are a playoff team.
Once a team is in the playoffs anything can happen.
10 Wild card teams have made it all the way to the Super Bowl with 6 of those 10 becoming Champions. Although none finished the season with less than 10 wins.
That means that a wild card team has played in nearly 20% of all Super Bowls.
Winning 2 games against the Jags and Bills isn't the most unlikely thing in the world. Now, I personally don't think they will, but whining that the season is over when there are still multiple ways into the post season is fatuous.
What gets me is we're supposed to be football fans here....yet I hear a lot of "I don't want to see the team play football because of what's already happened." I just can't relate to that- every week is new and I'm excited to see them play. If we squeak into the playoffs then I really don't care how we got there.....it's a brand new season.
Uh, we are dependent on the Giants and Redskins to give us a realistic chance to get in, besides the fact we need a win at Buffalo the final week. This past weekend was the worst case scenario for playoff seeding for Miami.
We have a mathematical chance of course, but not a realistic one.
We need 3 of 4 teams to finish out 1-1 (or worse), plus we need to win 2. It's a long-shot but certainly not impossible.....it gives us something to root for anyway.
Playoffs aside I'd like to win these last two games. I actually believe this roster isnt too far off. We need some health, a new DC and a revamped front 4 that can create pressure so Id like to see us finish strong.
You guys might not think so, but I believe as a mid-tier free agent aside from salary you are looking for a team you can help get over the hump. A 9-7 injured team that barely missed the playoffs is more appealing than a 7-9 team.
If we win those two games we could even get in...so lets just win and screw everything and everyone else.
This is so dumb. I'm sure no one on this team will benefit from playoff experience.
I agree completely...we were such a different team with Wilson, Grant and Tannehill....plus our starting line and Howard on D. 9-7 with basically a 2nd string offense would be a great accomplishment and set us up nicely for next year.
I was curious to see how the road wins stack up in general and also how they factor in to those teams making the playoffs so I did a quick histogram. Providing I did my math correctly, it breaks down as follows:
(The teams in bold have clinched a spot)
So on the surface it looks like:
Bears are successful because of their defense
Seahawks, Steelers, Chargers, Chiefs, and Saints because of their QB
Rams loaded with a boatload of talent
Why are the Redskins and Texans successful on the road? Their HC?
Note: I wanted the Dolphins to sign Jay Gruden when he was available a few years ago.
Of those 6 WC teams to win the Super Bowl 5 had a top 10 defense as seen below. Only the Giants did not have a top 10 defense but they did have a top 10 run game and middle of the road defense ranked #17 and lead the league in sacks with 53.
2005 Steelers top 3 defense, 2010 Packers top 2 defense, 1980 Raiders top 10 defense, 1997 Broncos top 10 defense, 2000 Ravens #1 defense.
Our defense is horrible on the ground and in the air. We are currently 31st in sacks, our top rusher in Gore is out for the remainder of the year, and our offense is almost as bad as our defense. The only top ranking we hold is being 2nd on defense for INT's. We have nothing in common with those 6 WC teams to win the SB should we in fact get in through the WC.
We had the #1 defense the first three weeks before interior linemen started getting hurt. I'm not saying we can return to that form by January, but our D is deceptively good in creating turnovers and it's why we've won 7 games. Howard being out is also huge for our team...as it would be for any defense missing their best player. He will be healthy by the playoffs.
I'm not going to debate what has/hasn't happened in the past- I'll just reiterate my point from earlier that the goal is always to make it to the playoffs. We'll probably get blown out....but then again many here said the Pats and Bears would blow us out as well. You never know what might happen.
We never had the #1 defense. Not the only examples but Ravens were better after week 1, Dallas after week 2 and Jacksonville after week 3, etc.. Furthermore, we played an injured Titans team and two bottom feeders in the Jets and Raiders. Those 3 today are ranked #27, #24 and #29 on offense so not much to crow about that we gave up fewer points earlier in the season.
I'd also be hard pressed to pin most of our defensive issues on injury anyway. You think we don't get blown out in Minnesota with a healthy Howard? I don't think that would have made much difference. Our real problem on defense is Burke (and Gase who won't get rid of him).
I wonder if there are any legitimate DC out there, and if so will Gase be able to recruit them? Any DC worth their salt probably wouldn't want to come aboard and join a HC who could be on the hot seat next year IF he is retained. Of course, maybe Mr. Ross could make it worth their while if he is so inclined.
The thought of having Burke and his version of good defense next year is depressing. He actually thinks he is doing a good job, which makes me think he is totally delusional.
It really doesn't matter. The fact that we are heading into week 16 with a chance to make the playoffs still gives me hope. A lot of you were predicting a 4-12 record, blow it up, burn it with holy water, doom/gloom all around negativity. We've had an assload of injuries to our best players and we still have a shot. If the Redskins can somehow beat the Titans and we can beat Jacksonville, I like our chances going into week 17. I know it's a lot to ask Josh Johnson and the Redskins to somehow beat a red hot Titan team, but it can and does happen. Especially with that specific Titans team. They are every bit as Jekyll and Hyde as we are and you never know what you're going to get with them. I could definitely see them choking that game away against Washington. Indy losing would certainly help as well. We'll see man, we're not out yet, so hold off on jumping in the bathtub with a plugged in toaster.
I agree. The Titans can win this week though, as long as Indy loses (or vise versa). We just need one of them to fall this week and whichever of them gets the W to lose their head-to-head match-up next week. If both of them lose though, then their week 17 game wouldn't matter to us. So let's just hope they both choke.
I'm more worried about Baltimore and Pitt, to be honest. Balt going 2-0 and Pitt going 1-1 puts both of them in....we really need the Ravens to lose one of two, but not both (we have to tie the Ravens to get in any 3-way scenario)!
Redskins currently on top of the Titans.
Yeah 30 minutes away.
Mariota is out for the Titans. Not sure if he's going to return....Stinger to his shoulder. This game is playing right into Washington's hands at the moment. They just need to play smart, keep running with AP and get points in any fashion possible. I didn't think this was possible, but Josh Johnson and 45 year old AP is making me a believer. Still got a lot of time left, but man....This is actually a good defensive battle.
20 minutes and counting. So far so good
Yeah ap! Get your Gore on
10 minutes and driving!
Refs aren't gonna let the Titans lose.
Do or die redskins
Damn. Horrible throw
Sprinkle was wide open for the first.
Oh well, we'll just have to win the division then.
Well, it aint gonna get any closer than that for us I don't think unless the Giants can pull off a miracle against Indy. We definitely need the Steelers and the Ravens to lose right?
I think we still need the Ravens to lose. But it all comes down to the colts. The giants have to win tomorrow or we are eliminated I think. Who knows. GIANTS ARE our good luck charm so maybe they will help us out
Yeah, either the Giants win or we're eliminated FROM THE WILD CARD since that means the Colts or the Titans will go 2-0 (or 1-0-1 if they tie) since they face each other next week. The Pats losing twice and us winning twice still gives us the division though.
For the Steelers/Ravens, that's a tough one because there are a lot of scenarios in play. If the Ravens win out and the Steelers lose once, the Ravens have the division. However, we need to be in a tie with the Ravens in some scenarios to pass Indy for the wild card. Also, the Steelers going 1-1 screws everything up for all of us....so we're happy with the Steelers at 2-0 or 0-2. Just not 1-1 IF they don't win the division.
Long story short, LOL, yeah...I think we want them both to lose this week. It's just not game-over for us if they both win.
Updated order of importance-
We want the Colts to lose
We always hope NE loses
then whatever happens for the Steelers and Ravens
Washington HAD this game too....Damn they had it...I thought they were going to do it up until Johnson threw that pick.
Ravens losing to the Chargers was the ONE game I felt good about. So, of course the Ravens put a beat down on the Chargers in LA. I think that does it for Miami, right? No path left to the playoffs?
After edit: Win the AFCEast or stay at home is what I see.
The only path left is the totally implausible one of Patriots losing the last two games and Dolphins winning two. That would net the AFC East Crown, but no way the Pats lose to the Bills and Jets.
There are actually 2 paths left: 1) win the AFC East by winning out with the Patriots losing out, or 2) win out, Ravens lose to Browns, Giants beat Colts, and Colts beat Titans. Dolphins get in playoffs in the 2nd scenario due to conference record.
Way too unlikely either way.
Miami winning two is probably the least likely thing to happen