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How Miami Makes the Playoffs- Updated 12/18

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by KeyFin, Dec 13, 2018.

  1. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Since we lost last week, everything here is considering we finish the season 2-0. There are no playoff scenarios with us finishing 8-8 unless 4 of the 5 teams below lose out.

    To win the division
    - We'd need the Pats to lose to the Bills and the Jets in Gillette stadium. It almost definitely won't happen...but hey, it's not impossible so I'm including it.

    To win the #6 seed is now a lot tougher since we're talking 3 or 4 way tie scenarios. The good news is if we win the last two, we should have the best conference record between common teams so we need two of them (or more) to tie us at 9-7. If the Colts or Titans finish 2-0, we're out.

    The other hurdle is the AFC North. We're behind the Steelers and the Ravens...we ideally want the Ravens to lose one game AND/OR the Steelers to lose both games. If one of them does end better than 9-7 it's no big deal...if they both end better than that we're screwed. They both have two tough games left so let's hope they both go 0-2 or 1-1.

    Also, the AFC West doesn't matter...both the Chiefs and Chargers have 11 wins so they're both locked at this point. That leaves one wild card slot between us, the Steelers/Ravens, the Colts and the Titans.

    The Colts have Giants and Titans (we are hoping Colts lose one or both)

    The Ravens have the Chargers and Browns (hoping Ravens lose one or both....winning both is okay if Steelers go 0-2)

    The Titans have Redskins and Colts (hoping Titans lose at least 1- we have tie-breaker over them)

    The Steelers have the Saints and Bengals (Steelers record doesn't matter as long as Ravens lose at least 1)

    The Pats have the Bills and Jets (hoping Pats lose both)

    Note- the Titans and Colts play in week 17 so the winner of that game will HAVE TO lose in week 16 or we're screwed. In other words, we can't hope for them to both lose in week 17. So if both the Colts and Titans win this week it's game over for Miami.

    We have the tie-breaker over the Titans so the Colts are enemy #1.

    What to Root For (in order of importance)-

    Giants over Colts
    'Skins over Titans
    Chargers over Ravens

    Saints over Steelers

    In a perfect world, the Colts finish 8-8 and are out. The Steelers finish 8-7-1 and are out. The Ravens win the division (which means they're out of the wild card race). The Titans tie us at 9-7, and we get in on the 1st tie-breaker.

    Scenario #2, the Colts go 9-7, Titans go 9-7, Ravens go 9-7, Steelers win division at 10-6-1 and we get in on conference record over the other three.

    We Are Out if-

    - Ravens go 2-0 AND Steelers win at least 1
    - Colts go 2-0
    - Titans go 2-0
    - A 3-way tie between Colts, Titans (we need Ravens in there to be in)
    - A two-way tie with Colts (again, we need the Ravens with the same record if we tie w/ Colts. It would be really, really helpful if the Ravens end the year 9-7 and don't win the division!)
     
    Last edited: Dec 19, 2018
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  2. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    I think at this point you treat it like a win and in though because its the most important piece of the puzzle.

    So much changes in these races for the last spot every week, a win this week puts us much closer to the goal regardless of what else may happen IMO because someone will stumble.
     
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  3. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I agree...all we can do is win this Sunday. Nothing else really matters at this point.
     
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  4. bigballa2102

    bigballa2102 Well-Known Member

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    I cant worry about anyone else i dont have the stomach for it, all i can do is hope miami wins thats all they can control. and then worry about other teams lol
     
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  5. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I mainly posted that so people can have a feel of what's good/bad around the league in the next few weeks. Some of us geeks are into that sort of thing. =)
     
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  6. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    Im totally into it myself. Its just the older I get the more times I hype myseof up for situations that don't occur. So this year I'm personally trying the one game at a time thing.
     
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  7. Destroyer

    Destroyer There for every play.

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    That Browns vs Ravens game is not a gimme. They are playing tough.
     
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  8. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    I may have misunderstood your initial post Key and if I did, sorry but...

    The Colts are going to lose against the Cowboys and the Ravens are going to lose against the Chargers
     
  9. firedan

    firedan Well-Known Member

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    Beat the Vikings and see how things shake out in the last few games,to many ifs and whats at this juncture.
     
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  10. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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  11. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Yup, I think so too.
     
  12. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I agree- the Browns are coming along. There's not a gimmie for anyone these last 3 weeks.
     
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  13. DrAstroZoom

    DrAstroZoom Canary in a Coal Mine Luxury Box

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    Any thoughts on rooting interests for tonight’s Chargers-Chiefs game?
     
  14. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Chiefs. Don't let NE get home field advantage in the playoffs.. or the bye.
     
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  15. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    So if the Patriots lose and we win, does your vision shift to the division a bit? I know mine does.
     
  16. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Not really. They could lose at Pittsburgh but they end the season vs. Bills and Jets. Basically we'd have to win out and they'd have to go 1-2 for us to win the division (we win the tiebreaker by division record). The likelihood of that happening when they play the Bills and Jets at home is so minuscule I think the only realistic path for us is the WC.
     
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  17. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    Well that is why I said after the game.

    At that point we would only have to go 2-0 and them 1-1 which is more realistic.
     
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  18. DrAstroZoom

    DrAstroZoom Canary in a Coal Mine Luxury Box

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    Counting on the Patriots to lose at home is unrealistic under any circumstances (they have something on the order of a .900 winning percentage at Foxboro in the Brady era) -- much less against the Jets and Bills.
     
  19. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    Thats a fair enough point. Their team is a lot more devoid of talent than years past though so it wouldn't shock me.
     
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  20. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Well.. if you want an estimate of the probability of that happening, NE has a 15-2 record against the Bills since Brady started in 2001 and a 13-4 record (in the regular season) against the Jets during that time. The probability NE goes 2-0 is then 67.5%. So the probability they don't got 2-0 is basically 1/3. Multiply that by the probability we go 2-0 (let's say it's 1/4) and the probability of the scenario you're hoping for occurring is approximately 1/12 = 8.3%.

    So sure.. it's "more realistic" if we beat Minny and they lose to Pittsburgh, but at least for me it's too unrealistic to consider. I'd start to care about that if it's only one game to go and the outcome of that last game decides the division winner.
     
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  21. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    Honestly I think that system of evaluation is flawed though. You are using teams with players who no longer play to quantify their likelyhood of success this season.

    Would I say they likely do beat both? Yep. I wouldn't say it's THAT unlikely though.
     
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  22. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    I corrected a typo right after you quoted me.. probability is 8.3%. Anyway, last time NE won 10 games was in 2009 so yeah it's unrealistic.
     
  23. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    Thats actually funny because I almost posted that I'd guess around 10%

    Anyway I didnt really mean it was likely, just it wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility. Also because I think their losing against Pittsburgh lowers our WC chances as well, so I mean for that reason too does it shift any focus.
     
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  24. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    If that happens (and I think there's a decent shot it will), then we're one game back from winning the division and we have 2 losing teams in our way. The Pats also have two lousy teams left (after Pitt) BUT they're division rivals that are playing their personal Super Bowls against NE. The chances of either winning are low but I guarantee you that they'll both "show up".

    Side note- in the Brady era, we're the only AFC East team to win in Gillette Stadium except the Jets in the playoffs in 2010.

    Until we're mathematically eliminated from winning the division though, I'll definitely be paying very close attention. If Pitt wins and we win then I'm going to be super-stoked for the last two weeks! I've thought all along that Buffalo is our biggest challenge in their house....so I'm very glad that's in week 17.
     
    Last edited: Dec 14, 2018
  25. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

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    I can't root for the Pats to win at Pittsburgh, even if our wildcard chances improve a bit. I want them to lose and drop to the #3 seed, plus it would set up a slim chance for the Bills or Jets to pull off a minor miracle and give Miami a shot at the division. At the very least, the Pats wouldn't lock it up till the last week of the regular season.

    This stuff is fun, and as the regular season draws to a close, we still get to talk about playoffs and not draft position.
     
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  26. ExplosionsInDaSky

    ExplosionsInDaSky Well-Known Member

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    Thanks for at least simplifying "this weekend" for us. Dallas Shemales over the Colts, Giants over the Titans. It would also be nice if Baltimore stumbled as well. Now....Here's the thing (and we've seen this before). The teams we need to lose WILL in fact lose...But so will we. If we do lose (which...well...might happen), is there any possible way we still have a shot? This is just a monumental obstacle for us in my opinion. To go into Minnesota and beat them in their building. I do remember some of you saying two weeks ago that even if we did lose to either the Pats or the Vikings that we still had a chance? I assume that is basically meaning life support? Like...we win our last two games and Colts, Titans, Ravens all lose theirs? We're gonna need some help. We really need this game in Minnesota. Kirk Cousins is not going to have two bad games in a row. We're up against it here on this one.
     
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  27. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Yup...we still have a shot. Here's how-

    - Miami loses to Minne, wins last two games (we're 9-7)
    - Indy loses 2 out of 3 (they're 8-8)
    - Ravens win their division (they're ahead of Pitt, record doesn't matter)
    - Titans lose once (they're 9-7 like us, we win tie-breaker)
    - Pitt loses twice (they're 8-7-1)

    Pitt will probably lose twice so we're good there...and that also gives the Ravens the division. The Titans will also lose one so it really comes down to Indy....if they close 2-1 or better then the slot is likely theirs.

    Note- we can also do a different scenario with us finishing 2-1 where Pitt wins the division and we hope for a 3 or 4 way tie at 9-7 (with Balt, Indy, Titans and us). There's a few scenarios where we get in there as well as long as we win the last two games...I haven't worked through all that math yet though since it's still too early.
     
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  28. ExplosionsInDaSky

    ExplosionsInDaSky Well-Known Member

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    Man, I appreciate the breakdown on that. Thing is i'm not expecting us to win tomorrow. I just think expectations are too high for that one. Especially if X is out. Don't get me wrong...I subconsciously expect us to win and my inner Miami Dolphin spirit animal thinks we can win, but reality tells me it's going to be a big time obstacle. I do think Dallas is hot right now and they will beat the Colts. I do think New England is going to beat Pittsburgh as well. It would be nice if Baltimore somehow loses to the Bucs, but that wont matter as much if Pittsburgh loses right? I think I got it, and thanks again. FinsUP.
     
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  29. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito. Club Member

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    I expect them to win because I do not think they are going to make the playoffs. I still do not believe in them. So they will crush Minnasota. Drake will get 200 yards, and they will win by 20. The defense will play well and a new defender will look like he stepped up so that the defense will look like they can take a corner.

    Dolphins don't want to just disappoint you, they want you to question why existence is a thing
     
  30. Miami_Dolfan

    Miami_Dolfan Member

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    Anybody have the scenarios now?
     
  31. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    We need to finish in a three way tie. We have to win out. Ravens have to lose to the Chargers this week and beat the Browns. COLTS have to lose against either the Giants or Titans. TITANS HAVE to lose against either Colts or Redskins
     
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  32. Dorfdad

    Dorfdad Well-Known Member

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    Here is how we all win the entire front office and coaching staff decides they need a break and all go on a cruise to discuss issues near the Bermuda Triangle and are transported to a new dimension. Ross is forced to hire an entirely new front office and coaching staff.

    The new staff want their own players and brings in a new QB and fixed the offensive line and hires a brilliant defensive coordinator who know what he’s doing.

    That’s how we make the playoffs anything other including this year is sheer fantasy
     
  33. brandon27

    brandon27 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Well, that's not good.

    I can see us winning out.

    I can see Baltimore getting beat by SD, and beating the Browns.

    I can see the Colts dropping the Titans game, but that's wishful thinking in part as well.

    I however do not see the Titans losing to the Redskins, and if we need the Titans to beat Indy, then we'e really hoping for Tennessee to lose to the Skins... with Josh Johnson at QB. Good luck.

    Bottom line is we gave ourselves a chance after beating NE, but then the whole team collectively laid an egg against the Vikings, and that's all she wrote on the 2018 season.
     
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  34. Dorfdad

    Dorfdad Well-Known Member

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    That’s been our signature for way to long. Totally sick of it!!
     
  35. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    Stop watching then.
     
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  36. danmarino

    danmarino Justice for Jacob Blake Club Member

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    Best case scenario is if the Pats lose their next 2 and the Dolphins win their next 2.

    If that happens, Dolphins = AFCE Champs...lol
     
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  37. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    Its highly unlikely. I don't think they are as good as years past and I don't think dropping one is out of the realm of possibility but dropping both....bleh.
     
  38. danmarino

    danmarino Justice for Jacob Blake Club Member

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    I agree. That would mean they finished the season 0-4...lol...I hope so though!!
     
  39. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I'll update the original post now.
     
  40. ripper1961

    ripper1961 Active Member

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    Honestly we are not a playoff team. I still feel the sting of the Jacksonville thrashing.
     

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