Also, for those that want to compare Tavon Austin to Ted Ginn Jr, or at least compare the situations: [video=youtube;_ZGneG7UMZY]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ZGneG7UMZY[/video] Ted Ginn Jr's situation is nothing like these two guys, and he's not similar in any way as a player. There is a level of toughness that Percy Harvin and Tavon Austin have that Ted Ginn Jr. simply did not have. Percy's numbers from 2008: 70 rushes, 660 yards, 10 touchdowns, 9.4 yards per rush 40 receptions, 644 yards, 7 touchdowns, 16.1 yards per reception Percy didn't even return kicks or punts at Florida, but since he came into the league, he's 3rd in the NFL in total kick return yards and 6th in yards per kick return to go along with his out of this world yards after catch ability as a receiver and his ability to play running back on occasion. Tavon Austin: 73 rushes, 652 yards, 3 TDs, 8.9 yards per rush 111 receptions, 1287 yards, 12 TDs, 11.6 yards per reception 32 kick returns, 813 yards, 1 TD 15 punt returns, 165 yards, 1 TD Overall, Tavon Austin touched the ball 231 times for 2,917 yards and 17 touchdowns. He amassed 36.4% of West Virginia's all purpose yardage and 25% of their total touchdowns.
Here's another for you. [video=youtube;i09R28AWgFU]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i09R28AWgFU[/video] This is Randall Cobb at Kentucky during his last year. [video=youtube;rYAd9D3bc3s]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rYAd9D3bc3s[/video] This is Randall Cobb this past year in Green Bay. If you want a model for what Tavon Austin may look like in the Dolphins style of offense, here it is. Randall Cobb may also be one of the top 3 or 4 young wide receivers in football right now. He's one of the big reasons Green Bay let Greg Jennings walk.
I love Tavon and want us to draft him, but one small issue I might have is this. Remember Reggie's senior year at USC, all those crazy highlights and everyone thought he would be amazing in the NFL? Not that he hasn't been successful in the NFL, but he clearly has not lived up to the pre-draft hype. I wonder if Tavon will be the same sort of thing - looks like a can't-miss star on college film, but ends up having a decent, but muted career, like Reggie?
IMO, I think there is one big difference. Reggie is a running back, and Tavon is a receiver. Reggie as a true running back was never really a great prospect. He was a guy projected to give you big plays, but little in the way of consistency. That has panned out, IMO. I personally feel that had Reggie been trained up as a receiver early in his career, he probably would have been better.
I love Tavon and really want him at #12. I also agree with Keith that the fact that he is a receiver and not just a RB makes a difference. Plus, he's not a long-strider like Ginn. Ginn is also very spindly and the reality was Ginn simply did not & does not have the toughness to be a top WR. But, at the same time, there are some concerns. Cobb is listed at 5'10, 191. Percy Harvin, 5'11, 200. Austin at the Combine was 5'8, 174. Those guys have a bit more meat on them and I think that helps them handle some hits. If Austin were closer to 185 that would help him. Right now I'm just a bit concerned about that. I know others are not. I still love the player and think as a slot WR, as a part-time RB, KR/PR he could be very explosive and make a ton of big plays. But, there is a small concern here, imo. If we did draft him, I just hope he doesn't come with a 'great family.'
The funny thing is when Cobb came out I didn't really think he was all that special. Granted he was surrounded by the turd that is Kentucky football. Hats off to Green Bay on that player evaluation.
I once thought his size was a concern, but I'm not so sure it should be. Warrick Dunn was a 5'9", 180 lbs running back. He played 12 years in the NFL, averaged 265 touches per year as a rusher and receiver, and played in 181 of 192 potential games. So, he averaged missing less than 1 game per year during his career. His size had no bearing on his durability. Christian Okoye was a much bigger running back, played 6 years in the NFL, and missed 17 games. Tavon Austin has reportedly never even missed a practice in 4 years at West Virginia.
That comparison has been brought up in other threads. I think it's valid. Moss is roughly 1 inch taller and 10 lbs heavier. Moss only missed significant time in one year, and a total of 9 games missed in his career, if I read the stats right. Austin is faster and quicker that Moss.
I've been on the site long enough to know what you are. It's funny when you're going after others, but it's amazing how tired it gets when the focus is on me. We both know that you're smart enough to not believe an ounce of the crap that you just said. First of all, a few people on the first page of the thread were discussing how great highlight videos were for prospects, because it is "good for their business". Right. Professional scouts, guys that get a salary to support a family, do their work watching highlight videos synced to Eminem and David Guetta. Right, well if you want to believe that part of what my veiled jab was guided towards, feel free to make another post to rage at me, but I'm not going into any more detail about it, because it's a ridiculous assertion. I've let you have the last word before--you know I'm true in it Now, to address your question, why don't you ask a guy like Fineas or CK, who do heavy draft scouting, what IS best to watch (I know it's not a serious question, because, again, I know that you're smart enough to know) to get excited about the prospect. Most first round guys have every snap of every game recorded. That'd be a good place to start. Try looking at the stats afterwards. Then, maybe watch their combine performance (One of the most popular sports networks on television does actually dedicate like an entire week to this, remember). Afterwards, if you're really interested, check out player interviews. Do what the scouts and Ireland would do, as best as you can replicate. That will give you an idea who we are drafting. A highlight video won't. "Actual footage"? Give me a break. If a highlight video is actual footage, then by your logic, so is this [video=youtube;bxch-yi14BE]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bxch-yi14BE[/video] Entertaining? Yes. Accurate representation? No. Did you notice how many of the passes, in that video, that Austin dropped? What'd he do on running plays? Did you see that time when he go lit up by a 6'3/250 lb backer? No, no, no. It's probably 1% of his plays in his college career condensed into 5 minutes with an audioswap of popular music. It's all about entertainment. Any defects or shortcomings are concealed; a highlight video can make ANY PLAYER look good. There are highlight videos for everyone from JaMarcus Russell, to Chad Henne, to Tedd Ginn Jr, to Maurice Clarett, to Timmy Chang, to Troy Williamson, and beyond. Go ahead. Look. Highlight videos are fun, but it's ridiculous to post it in the main forum regarding a player that we actually haven't been connected to, and obsess over it as if he'll regularly make plays like that. Nevermind the fact that, as I said, it's probably 1% of his plays, but also, because most of the guys he's making these plays against won't ever play in the NFL. There are some 120 NCAA teams, all with 30 guys or so on defense. The majority of them suck, compared to NFL standards. He wasn't making catches against Revis or juking around Jerod Mayo. It's misleading and irrelevant.
I don't think bulk or size has much to do with durability. Injuries are much more often caused by twisting and pulling of tendons, ligaments and muscles than by collision and guys who are quicker and lighter on their feet tend to avoid contact better anyhow. I don't think there is any empirical support for the notion that smaller guys get hurt more or have shorter careers. Warrick Dunn was a good example, but there are many more small guys who played for a very long time without any real durability problems. WDunn -- 5-9, 180 (missed only 11 games in 12 seasons despite 3200 touches) TDorsett -- 5-11, 192 (missed only 12 games in 12 seasons depsite 3300+ touches) DSproles -- 5-6, 181 (missed only 5 games in 7 seasons) DGreen -- 5-9, 184 (missed only 25 games in 20 seasons) MClayton -- 5-9, 177 (missed only 18 games in 11 seasons) GClark -- 5-9, 173 (missed only 9 games in 11 seasons) RBarber -- 5-10, 184 (hasn't missed a game in the last 15 years despite being one of the NFL's 2-3 most physical CBs) These are total games missed and may not have all been due to injury. On the other hand, there are plenty of big guys whose careers were cut short due to injury. Okoye is one. Earl Campbell, Jamal Anderson, Larry Johnson, and Barry Foster come to mind.
Huh? Do you understand what is going on? I don't think you do. First of all the majority of this site are not draft gurus. They aren't going to break down film and watch every touch a player has from birth to the draft. Secondly, I saw no one ever, assume that highlight videos were the end all be all of someone's ability. That is simply a made up and frankly stupid argument you breathed into being from nowhere. Lastly, your example and argument don't match up, unless you're implying these highlight videos have been altered to show things that never happened like 5 Mitt Romneys. The simple fact of the matter, is the highlight videos show, get this...highlights. Everyone here understands that and everyone here gets highlights are not the whole picture. People are allowed to be excited by the potential highlight videos illustrate, and doing so is not ridiculous, pointless, silly, stupid or any other crap you pretend. In the video posted, Tavon Austin did those things, just because the video doesn't show things he may have messed up, doesn't mean the highlights aren't valid or indicative of his skill. Highlight videos are absolutely an accurate representation of what a player is capable of, they are not guarantees, but then again no one argued they were.
Maybe because I know Sceeto very well, if he's excited about something, I'm going to just try to share his enthusiasm and get into what he's thinking instead of spending one second of my time thinking about what forum the thread should be in.. Sometimes we talk about draft prospects in the main forum..I don't see the reason to care..
There are a few things that concern me about Austin. One is size. Yes, small players have succeeded in the NFL, but that doesn't mean it isn't a factor. He is one of the shortest WRs to ever come into the NFL. Another concern is that he relies on speed so much to make most of his big plays. You can't make a living off that though. You rarely see guys just outrun defenders with the ball in their hands. He also loves to gravitate toward the sideline, which is something else that bothers me. That said, I think he can be a good player in the NFL. I don't think he's worth the 12th pick though. I think his value is somewhere closer toward the latter part of the first round.
I think a good highlight video would make a scout want to look further into a player if he likes what he sees thus far.
A man corner for a zone based scheme or a slot WR for a run based offense, both would be surprising IMO.
If a scout is starting off with a highlight video, he's not doing his job, and he hasn't been doing his job for the previous 2-5 years that a given player was in college.
Honestly... I think its more to do with how a player plays....not so much his size. Remember Lamar Thomas...sure he was taller..but damn he looked like he would get broken in half. Does the player leave a big target for a defensive player to hit. I dont think Tavon does. I watched him his entire WVU career....and I have no concerns what so ever about his size
Its not just speed though....speed is...point A to point B...straight line speed. Austin has great balance and supreme agility. He also has the speed....thats where I think the major difference with Ted Ginn is. Ted didnt have that stop ...start...left , right agility.
Yes because scouts have the time to watch tape of every single player as well as other duties. Like in any job, you must prioritize your time. They're watching a lot of tape, don't get me wrong... I can imagine a simple highlight tape could tell you if its worth their time to look more into a late round prospect, for example.
I don't see that. I see him relying as much on vision, suddenness, route running, and a good understanding of the position & game.
Really, genius? What if it's a freshman highlight clip.... or a high school highlight video that causes the scout to follow him through college?
Why is high school relevant? Two people from my high school football team, in the 4 years I was there, went on to D1. The rest work at a combination of Walmart, Autozone, and Modell's. Not that there's anything wrong with that, but these were guys that could run 5.5 40's and bench 2 or 3 reps of 120. Not exactly NFL material. If there are high school players that are good enough to get by the Saved by the Bell gang, they do something in college, and a scout scouts. It's their job. Uneven hours and tons of travel, sure, but it's their job. You'r looking at 40 hours per week, 50 weeks per year, every year. Imagine how much more informed you (and me, I'm not bragging) would be if we allocated all of the time we spent working scouting. Most high school scouting is performed by universities (who have scouts under payroll, allocating all of THEIR time). You know that. I hope.
For a guy who's rarely to never in the draft forum it's funny to watch him talk down to others about what real scouting is like. What a joke.
If you don't think I know what the point was, then you need to go back and re-read what I wrote. I conceded that highlight videos are considered entertainment. Everyone here has seen them, and everyone here has enjoyed them. Now step off of your high horse and let's talk. This is a player that we have not been connected to by anyone other than posters on ThePhins and PhinHaven, and there is a highlight video of him on the main. Explain the relevance. It's borderline relevant in the draft section. If I'm demeaning enthusiasm by suggesting that a highlight video is misleading, then maybe your mancrush is just superficial. Just saying. Get to know the guy
I talked about how I thought it would be wise from a production standpoint, for draft prospects to make a cool highlight video of themselves, just for memories and cool factor, obviously there is some issues with comprehension..
Um, yeah we have been connected to him. Ireland has personally attended 3 of his games and we've either already met with and/or have more meetings scheduled with him. The way you're going, you're highlight video would be 2 to 3 seconds long.
I don't spend my time in the draft forum, therefore highlight videos are more accurate than game tape. Go on...
" I think the highlight business is getting pretty cool, for the kids that are gonna get drafted im sure theres a good business angle there, that one was well done." If you took that as I condone watching highlight videos over actual games your pretty clueless..
I have no idea where he's gonna go or who we're gonna take. All I know is that we aren't going to be picking this high again for a while, and if we are then Ireland won't be around to make the pick so he better get it right..There's no denying that Austin has dynamic ability. But lets keep it 100, Harvin and Cobb are best case scenarios. One plays with the league's best QB and WR corps, the other played with the league's most feared running back and is headed to a team with even more dynamic offense. Ginn is indeed not even close. How about Rocket Ismail, Desmond Howard, Peter Warrick, John Avery, Lorenzo Booker, Dexter McCluster, Reggie Bush? All of them generated tremendous excitement with highlight reel plays. I agree that Austin is a possibility at 12. He's almost guaranteed to send a jolt through the fan base, positive media coverage, more ticket sales etc. Whether he'll produce on the field, there's a fair amount of precedent to go on and IMO these types of players are more often than not, disappointments.
I wouldn't have a highlight video, because I don't pride myself in internet trolling. I'm glad you were able to get off on some of my activity on the board, though! We're also officially connected to any player that we scout or bring in for a visit now? Oh ok, I'm going to get a Luke Batton highlight video for the main now. There's this one tackle that he makes... you've gotta see it.
You realize you're floundering...right? Yes, when you're GM attends 3 games and has had/will have numerous meetings, that player is certainly a target. Tell me, Sport, what does it take for there to be a connection been a draftee and a team in your opinion? A letter of intent to draft?
I took it as your indictment of them being more than entertainment. "Your pretty clueless" I'm simply repudiating phinsational's assertion that game tape is seemingly not "real scouting," on the basis that I don't post in the draft forum. You can do more than agree with him and fist pump his posts.... you know.... like speak with me directly? I know, I know, I'm illogical and not worth it. Right. Heard it before. You're going to respond to this, though.
