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His'n's Purely Mathematical Power Rankings - Week 10

Discussion in 'Other NFL' started by His'nBeatYour'n, Nov 11, 2008.

  1. His'nBeatYour'n

    His'nBeatYour'n Glass Ceiling Repairman

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    I've been using, and constantly tweaking, a power ranking formula for the past few years to help me in my office pool. Basically I wanted to help myself look past the record and reputation of a team and place a little more value on the strength of their opponents.

    Using a formula that is probably approaching BCS complexity, sheer ridiculousness and inaccuracies, I share it here for your amusement as well as collective scorn and ridicule.

    ------------------------------

    Included is the "power points" each team has earned this year based on who they've beaten, when, who they've lost to, and whether or not they've covered the spread. In () is last week's ranking. Enjoy!

    All 32 teams have now played exactly 9 games which makes these power rankings the most balanced yet.

    1 Tennessee Titans 17.689 (1)
    Faced a tough road test in Chicago, sure it was against Rex Grossman, but the Titans are finally impressing by playing and beating quality opponents to keep undefeated hopes alive.
    2 New York Giants 15.350 (2)
    If the Titans somehow pull off 16-0 and make it to the Super Bowl, the defending Super Bowl champs look poised to make fans of the '72 team all over again. The Giants are playing impressive football as they move from the easiest schedule to date into a tough stretch. Next three games are against 6-3 teams.
    3 Carolina Panthers 12.822 (3)
    Overcame turnovers against Oakland to improve to 7-2. Quality football team setting up a Week 16 showdown with the New York Giants that will likely settle home field in the NFC.
    4 Arizona Cardinals 10.750 (8)
    Tight win against San Francisco but the soon to be NFC West champs move up because all teams ahead of them either lost or took the week off.
    5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10.372 (5)
    Take a week off and stay put. Playoff implications on the line next week vs. Minny.
    6 New England Patriots 10.133 (15)
    Single biggest leap of the week as the Patsies move up 9 spots after a "separate the men from the boys" victory over Buffalo.
    7 Pittsburgh Steelers 10.100 (4)
    Suffered the only upset of the weekend against a suddenly resurgent Colts team.
    8 Washington Redskins 9.994 (6)
    Bye week equals a slight slippage in the rankings, but the Redskins remain in the driver's seat for what may end up being the sole wild card spot in from the NFC EAST.
    9 Indianapolis Colts 9.872 (16)
    If it weren't for the Patriots this would be the most impressive leap in the rankings this week. Back to back wins against division leaders New England and Pittsburgh have put the Colts back in the playoff hunt.
    10 Baltimore Ravens 9.472 (10)
    They dominated Miami, but Baltimore's 5 other wins came against teams with a combined record of 12-33. The Dolphins playoff hopes may rest on how this team fares in the next 6 weeks as they play the entire and tough NFC EAST and division rival Pittsburgh.
    11 Atlanta Falcons 9.222 (9)
    12 New York Jets 8.994 (14)
    Huge and important game for the AFC East this Thursday. Due to the week 1 loss, Miami has to root for New England to come out on top. The Jets, along with their landlords at the Meadowlands, own the easiest schedule so far this season. Opponents of the Jets and Giants have a league low .395 winning percentage this season.
    13 Miami Dolphins 8.772 (13)
    The Dolphins have a favorable schedule, but they'll need to hold off lesser teams better than they did against Seattle on Sunday.
    14 Philadelphia Eagles 8.544 (7)
    15 Chicago Bears 7.556 (12)
    16 Minnesota Vikings 7.517 (18)
    17 Dallas Cowboys 7.106 (11)
    18 Buffalo Bills 5.833 (17)
    19 Denver Broncos 5.772 (21)
    20 Green Bay Packers 5.389 (20)
    21 New Orleans Saints 5.272 (19)
    22 San Diego Chargers 4.850 (22)
    23 Cleveland Browns 2.594 (23)
    24 Jacksonville Jaguars 2.444 (26)
    25 Houston Texans 1.444 (25)
    26 St. Louis Rams 1.133 (24)
    27 Oakland Raiders -0.006 (27)
    28 Kansas City Chiefs -0.972 (29)
    29 Seattle Seahawks -1.000 (28)
    30 San Francisco 49ers -1.611 (30)
    31 Cincinnatti Bengals -1.806 (31)
    32 Detroit Lions -6.083 (32)
     
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  2. His'nBeatYour'n

    His'nBeatYour'n Glass Ceiling Repairman

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    His'n's Purely Mathematical Final Record and Playoff Projections.

    There was only one upset this past weekend, Indy over Pitt. Other than that, teams who outranked their opponents prior to were 13-0 in Week 10.

    And now that all teams have played an equal 9 games, I offer the first final record and playoff projections.

    Based purely on the impossibility that there will be no upsets in the last 7 weeks, I offer the first purely mathematical Final Record and Playoff Projections. If every team with more "power points" won every game every week, this is how the playoff picture would shape up.

    AFC EAST
    NE 12-4
    NYJ 11-5
    MIA 10-6
    BUF 9-7

    AFC NORTH
    PIT 11-5
    BAL 10-6
    CLE 5-11
    CIN 1-15

    AFC SOUTH
    TEN 16-0
    IND 11-5
    JAX 5-11
    HOU 4-12

    AFC WEST
    DEN 8-8
    SD 6-10
    OAK 3-13
    KC 2-14

    NFC EAST
    NYG 15-1
    WAS 12-4
    PHI 8-8
    DAL 7-9

    NFC NORTH
    CHI 12-4
    GB 8-8
    MIN 7-9
    DET 0-16

    NFC SOUTH
    CAR 13-3
    TB 12-4
    ATL 12-4
    NO 6-10

    NFC WEST
    ARI 12-4
    STL 5-11
    SEA 2-14
    SF 2-14

    AFC
    1 TEN
    2 NE
    3 PIT
    4 DEN
    5 IND
    6 NYJ

    NFC
    1 NYG
    2 CAR
    3 ARI
    4 CHI
    5 TB
    6 WAS or ATL
     
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