Henne throws interceptions in bunches

Padre....the title of the thread is a bit misleading isnt it?

The article in the paper is about how he bounces back after a tough game. Henne has only thrown multiple Ints four times in 17 starts. Now...add in that those we Henne's first 17 STARTS OF HIS CAREER, and quite honestly.....stating "Henne throws Ints in Bunches" is really not even true.

Peyton Manning had thrown multiple Ints 11 times in his first 17 starts.

So...its not a flaw. In fact...for QB's in their first 17 games...its quite common. Brady, Brees, Ryan, Flacco all had 4 or more games of multiple Ints in their first 17 starts.

 

Friend padre31:
nothing misleading here. I think you're right on the money. I am not anti-Henne, I am pro-win & think Pennington would be the better option for our offense @ this point & time. he should get a shot @ starting to see if he can make it work before we're in a hole we can't climb out of in time for the play-offs. finally, somebody gets it.

 

Let me ask you this question.

Are you worried more about the short term future of our team, or the long term future? If you look at Henne's record as a starting QB for our team, he's not even a losing QB. He's actually a winning QB at 9-8.

As well....everyone keeps saying Pennington would be a better option for our offense. Why? Back that up with something other than...he would be the better option. Are you going to back it up with how he did in 2008? Thats fine, but Pennington has played many more seasons than just one. Why not look at how Pennington was playing before he got hurt in 2009?

And your not even taking into account that his arm isnt completely recovered from yet another injury to his rotator cuff. One of the reasons he chose to come back to Miami is because he knew he wasnt going to have to rush back to possibly being asked to start and he could take the whole season to get his arm strength back.

 

But EVERY QB has just about that many games with multiple Ints in 17 games...specifically their FIRST 17 games. So...Im scratching my head as to why this is a specific flaw in Henne's game?

You should re title the thread....

Every QB throws Ints in Bunches then.....

 

And we are 2-2 four games into the season...

HOW IS THAT A HOLE FOR THE PLAYOFFS?

 

Probably, since he threw 5 picks against this same style NE D approach in one game just a few years ago.

 

Well...in our Play Off game in 2008 he threw 4....

Henne has also thrown multiple TD's in 4 out of 17 starts...

Why not label the thread....Henne throws TD's in Bunchs....?

 

If you guys think you are a Pennington away from winning a Super Bowl, then by all means, put Pennington in. But if you aren't, it would be a huge setback to your program to yank Henne now. Playing is how he gets a chance to develop and it is also the way you can find out if he is or isn't the long term answer. Neither can be determined after 4 games of his second season, unless he was stinking up the joint like Browning Nagle once did for my Jets.

 

Wouldn't it have to do more with pressing? I don't know the stats but I would bet that when Henne has had these multiple pick games we may have been in a position where we had to abandon the run and throw, throw, throw. Offense is on their heels and waiting. Henne's main flaw that I can see is the stare down. He locks on and that along with the need to throw because we are so far behind is a bad mix and will result in multiple picks.

 

Also, I couldnt tell you if all 5 of Pennington picks were on him......

But I can tell you not every one of the above illustrated BUNCHES were on Henne. Clearly the GINN drop, INT, bad call for TD vs NO last year wasnt.

The BM route for pick 6 TD in this game wasnt.

Dont recall all the circumstances in BUF or TEN but do know the running games goes out the window as well when you trail and decide to play catch up based on field position and ST points, as well as when last years Defense folded like a house of cards in soft breeze, etc.

Its all relative, this year is this year. And through 4 games, Henne is not the problem that needs to be solved right now.

 

Year, cause he has gotten YOUNGER since then.

You know what also gets created in BUNCHES here? CRAPTASTIC threads with speculation about cause and effect harping on same ol same ol subject matter that doesnt have a single impact on the future.

12 games remain, and Henne isnt the issue going forward. We are 2 and 2 after our first 4, as expected. These next 4 shape up to be the same, its the final 8 that will be make or break for that expected 9-7 or 10-6. Its exactly how it was expected.

If we are going to finish with more than 10 wins.....its going to be other areas besides Henne as QB that dictates that. If ST continues to play like SPECIAL PASTE EATERS, 9 will be a struggle.

 

Not only is he NOT the problem....

But all of these start Pennington advocates have yet to prove why Pennington would clearly offer us a better chance of winning? They cant. And they certainly have yet to take into account that the dude's wing, which had a visible lack of "pop" before he got hurt....isnt even completely healthy yet.

 

Most good QBs throw picks in bunches. In general, most good QBs don't throw many picks, with the exceptions of a few gunslingers like Favre or Marino. Most good QBs have learned to minimize their mistakes, but every once in a while they face a defense that confuses them or a poor game plan puts them in a situation that makes mistakes more likely. That's when you get a multiple interception game, but if they are good QBs you see them bounce back.

Look at a CP. In 2008 he had a great year with no multiple interception games, but everybody admitted that it was unlikely that he could duplicate that. And statistically they were right. In 2007, CP had three multiple interception games. In 2006, he had 4 multiple interception games. Over his career CP has not shown a lesser propensity to throw interceptions. In the eight seasons where CP has thrown passes, he has had a higher interception % than Henne currently has in four of them. If you only count the seasons that CP played in half the games, then he had a lower Int % in 3 of the 6.

Here are their INT% numbers for the last five years they played:


Henne Int%
2010 3.1
2009 3.1


CP Int%
2009 2.7
2008 1.5
2007 3.5
2006 3.3
2005 3.6

I see no basis for the belief that CP will improve the offense b/c he is much less interception prone than Henne.

 

Because it would frankly be as pointless as to this thread.....

You keep saying Henne hurts our chances at winning this year, but you have yet to offer A) anything substantial what so ever to back up your claim and B) anything to show that Pennington in his current state would give us a better shot....

 

Im not going to even begin to try and top that argument. He nailed it.

 

Pennington's last game he started he threw 4 INTs vs Baltimore right? No one is perfect.

 

You say that....

But....prove it. Look at Penningtons entire career...look at Pennington's season in 2009 before he was hurt...and show me statistically how that is the case.

Pennington has a career completion percentage of 66%. Henne has a career completion percentage of 61.5%

Now, where is the statistic that shows the difference between the two equals a better chance of winning?

 

Penny started 3 games last year for us.....where he tossed 2 INTS....! (sacked 6 times) 68.9% completed with 76rating.

http://www.nfl.com/players/chadpennington/profile?id=PEN375096

Penny is what he is...a 2nd QB coach on the sidelines, and a perfect backwards hat-wearing, clip board holding, trustworthy backup for short burst only. This is not a time to need or seek the backup to start with a healthy and PRODUCTIVE current QB ahead of him.

 

Raf spent a tremendous amount of time in the off season showing which stats equate to winning football games....

According to those stats Raf.....which were backed up with multiple sources...where is Henne playing at the moment in regards to winning games?

 

Please elaborate....and then take that ratio and show me statistically that that equates to Pennington winning more games for us this season....WITH A HURT ARM (you keep ignoring that one MINOR detail)


Also...please take into account these numbers:

10/9
17/17
16/9
13/12
22/6

If I remember correctly.....Pennington had his worst seasons when his arm was not fully healed. His arm is not fully healed this season. What numbers do you think would most likely resemble his numbers this season if he started?

 

We would have to completely change the offense..the bread and butter back shoulder throws that Henne has been completing with regularity Pennington can't even attempt...the route trees would need to go from inside out to outside in with Pennington..and that will compress the defense..no thanks.

 

When Henne throws more than one interception, the Dolphins are 0-4. All QB's will have multiple pick games, but our defense needs to turn around and get the ball back for the offense

 

You can still throw INTs and win the game. The Phins didn't lose to NE b/c of Henne. They didn't lose to Houston last year b/c of him either. Every part of the team needs to be held accountable when they lose. The QB gets the blame most of the time just b/c that's the nature of the position.

Fair? No

 

Yup. I believe Tom Brady had 6 multi-INT occurrences in his first 20 regular season games. They probably should have went back to Drew Bledsoe then.

Peyton Manning was an interception machine.

What you want to see in a young QB is an all-around progression of skills combined with an ability to not make the same mistakes over and over again. And you usually need a fair sampling size with which to judge.

 

I think we are commited to the run when Pennington is the QB. otherwise Henning is calling more pass then run plays with Henne under center. Brown and Ricky arent gettin the carries they need and Brown is stuggling. Against the jets we were in the red zone multiple times and did not run a single run play. So obviously we are not commited to the run, like some people want to think. I think Miami wants to be a balanced team and have more success running the ball but we havent had much success with the running game.

Pennington limits the offence and I dont think he converts on 3rd downs as nearly as good as henne does. Henne has only had one bad game and his rating is an 86 and his 10th in the league in passing yards with a completion percentage of 64% thats pretty dang good. despite the three picks Henne was moving the ball down the field and he was moving the ball down the field very well against the Jets.

Pennigton is strictly a game manager and he pisses me off because he sucks on 3rd and long situations, he'll dump it off evey time. Playing Pennington is like punting it on 4th and one. He may not throw picks but he also doesnt move the ball down field very well. Not as good as Henne does, especially on 3rd downs.

 

As I said, Started in 3 games last year.

This offense is set up for HENNING. He is a run first, play action middle of the field, checkdown short type of Offensive coordinator, always has been.

BS on what we dont have. Henne has been no less as successful in this offense with his production as Pennington. We have a current younger QB with better arm able to make all the throws and run this offense productively. We are fortunate to have an experience backup if, and only if, HENNE gets injured, thats it.

The better our Defense and Special Teams are in not giving up chunk yards and allowing free points on the board, the more successful we will be with the points our offense with Henne puts on the board. It cuts 2/3 out of 3 ways.

Henne is not our problem to concern ourselves with....as 2/3 of the other areas are of a much, much, much greater and accurate area of concern to focus on.

 

Cherry picking stats does not a good argument make.

 

Pennington is less likely to survive a FULL season ever again.

 

If Pennington were 28 and didn't have an injury history this might make sense. Putting him in when he struggled last year and then was injured on an already weak throwing shoulder just doesn't seem to make sense.

There are just as many questions about Pennington's ability right now as there are Henne's - but Pennington isn't the future and it would distrupt the entire offense to put him in.

 

He's still in the range. In general, if you had a QB who completed at least 60% of his passes, had a YPA over 7.0 and QBR above 85 (the QBR penalizes INTs heavily, so the INT % is factored in), then your QB was not the problem. After four weeks, Henne is completing 64.1% of his passes. His YPA is 7.4. And his QBR is 86.2. I don't see Henne as the problem.

 

You cant even make that argument and have it support your case. If you look at the times Henne has had alot of throws...its because we were BEHIND. Henne has how many comeback 4th qtr victories in his 17 starts?

Check my numbers but:

10-20 attempts - 1-2
20-30 attempts - 7-2
30-50 attempts - 2-5



Historically:

Quarterbacks win 30% of the time when they are asked to "Carry" their team, which is defined as the 40 attempt barrier.

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.co..._Mad_Bombers:_QBs_who_can_'carry_a_team'.html



“Carrying a team” is not easy. People familiar with football statistics know that the more often a quarterback passes, the less likely he is to win. Check any box score: the QB who throws the most passes typically loses the game.

No doubt, this has a lot to do with the situations that makes it necessary to throw all those passes: most of the time, the quarterback throwing a lot of passes was behind at some point, or engaged in a major shoot-out. Teams with a comfortable lead simply do not throw a lot of passes.

That’s why it’s impressive when quarterbacks manage to win games when they throw a lot of passes. But I wanted to know more: Relatively speaking, how poor is Favre’s record in games where he had to “carry a team”? How good is Brady’s? What’s average? What’s great?

To find some answers, my study analyzed all games played from 1960-2008. Due to the evolution of the NFL passing game that has led to the modern “Live Ball Era” (1978-present), I defined games in which a quarterback was asked to “carry a team” as follows:

* 1960-1977 – 30 or more passes
* 1978-2008 – 40 or more passes

One could argue the threshold prior to 1978 should be a number other than 30. Let the statisticians debate it. In this analysis, know that if Roger Staubach, for example, threw 30 passes in a 1976 game and 30 passes in a 1979 game, the first game would be captured and the second game would not. If Staubach threw 40 passes in a game in 1976 or in 1979, it was captured. If a quarterback played before and after 1960, only the games since 1960 were included.



The difficulty in “carrying a team” is evident by the very poor record of quarterbacks forced to pass the ball often.

From 1960-2008 there were 3,877 games in which a quarterback was asked to "carry the team." Their record in these games is abysmal:

Wins - 1,148

Losses - 2,645

Ties - 85

Pct. - .307


That’s tough: quarterbacks asked to “carry their teams” combined to win just 3 of every 10 games. Clearly, passing the ball a lot is not a good situation in which to find ones self. Most quarterbacks fail to deliver.