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Hello Dolphin fans

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Arodgers12, Nov 19, 2019.

  1. Arodgers12

    Arodgers12 Well-Known Member

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    I hope you all are well other than Football. What is new in all of your lives this year. I hope this draft puts you guys back on top. I think you guys will become this years 49ers next year. That is my bold prediction, mark it down. What is the problem this year with Miami?
     
  2. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Lack of talent.
     
    Tin Indian likes this.
  3. Puka-head

    Puka-head My2nd Fav team:___vs Jets Club Member

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    "Fans" who want us to lose.
     
  4. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    The fans are not the problem. The team is the problem.

    I guarantee you there would be no fans hoping for a high draft pick to give ourselves the best chance of fixing our decades long QB problem (a problem unknown to our friend from Green Bay here) if the team weren't so mismanaged over the past decades, whether it's the owner, the GM or the coaches. You're misplacing your criticism.
     
  5. Puka-head

    Puka-head My2nd Fav team:___vs Jets Club Member

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    You're cute when you're angry.
     
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  6. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    I'm not angry.

    Just pointing out there's no reason to attack other fans here. We all want the Dolphins to win. However, some of us recognize it may take some losing seasons first to get to where we want to be.
     
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  7. Puka-head

    Puka-head My2nd Fav team:___vs Jets Club Member

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    And whats up Arod? Wish you guys would put those smelly Viqueens away. Bar I go to watch the Phins every week has about a dozen Viqueens fans there every week. I'm usually the only Phins fan. VQ fans are a bunch a whiny ishes. But they are loyal, gotta give em that.
     
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  8. Puka-head

    Puka-head My2nd Fav team:___vs Jets Club Member

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    I'm not attacking you or anyone else.

    Tank for Tua or Bomb for Burrow=Lose for looosers.

    I have never been and will never be a fan of losing. Wanting to lose for any reason is never going to lead to success.

    When was Aaron Rodgers drafted?

    EDit: You are right however, thats not whats wrong with the Dolphins. They gots other issues.
     
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  9. Tin Indian

    Tin Indian Rockin' The Bottom End

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    A team that didn't have a lot of talent to begin with gutting what little they did have and playing in the NFL with scrubs and castoffs. I am no fan of tanking or whatever but it had to be done to clear the dead wood. Just wish it had not come at the expense of guys like Tunsil and whatnot.

    On the positive side, we do have a pile of picks in the next two drafts and a ton of cap space so as long as our front office can correctly identify the right guys to bring in we should get this straightened out in fairly short order. And its starting to look, to my eye at least, we finally have a head coach worth his salt.

    The proof of the pudding is in the eating as they say, and it will be a year or two before we can actually sit at the table and really taste it.
     
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  10. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Right.. you're not attacking me or anyone else.. but we're "looosers" in your mind.

    Get a grip. We're all fans. Also.. have you ever heard of a "feigned retreat"? The Mongols – one of the most impressive military machines ever in history (they created the largest contiguous land empire ever) – practiced that constantly. They would deliberately "lose" early in the battle and retreat getting the opposing army to follow them into a more advantageous position where they could encircle the opposing army. You'd be calling the Mongols "looosers" for wanting to lose at any point during a battle.

    Tank for Tua and Bomb for Burrow is not what "looosers" do. It's a strategy to rebuild this franchise into a winner. And stop insulting other fans for wanting the team to become an eventual winner. You keep that up I will get angry.
     
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  11. brandon27

    brandon27 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Sigh... I'm not sure why this debate keeps coming up. The problem here isn't that fans want to lose. The problem as cbrad said is with the team itself. The organization made a clear plan to lose games this year. It's quite clear when you start to unload talent at key positions. They have no real plan at QB right now. We have no RB. We have little OL help. No pass rush. I mean it's pretty clear the organization has it's eyes on the future, meaning they're sacrificing this season to accumulate picks, and ensure those picks are as high as they possibly can be. All of that, translates to losing games. As fans when you look at the blueprint they've laid out in front of us, it's clear (or at least it should be) that the plan was to stock up on draft picks & not win games. I'm not saying they want to lose on purpose, but it's clear they didn't put much emphasis on winning. So as fans, I think it's perfectly normal for many to think the more games we lose, the better off we'll be because our own draft picks will be higher which gives us the pick of the litter so to speak. It gives the team it's best chance to add new talent through the draft. Everyone knows success in this league is attained by building through the draft. Of course, having high picks doesn't guarantee we'll make the right picks, but it does give you a greater chance.

    That being said, I won't fault anyone around here, or call them less of a fan if their mentality is wanting to see a loss on Sundays. It doesn't make them less of a fan in my eyes, it just means they have a different way of looking at the blueprint moving forward. Make no mistake though, this plan was laid out by the team. They haven't explicitly said they're taking, but lets be honest here, they've put no emphasis on winning being important this year. Clearly they're trying to win with what they have, and they've done so twice, but they surely didn't plan on being contenders. They planned on stocking up on picks by moving talent out the door. When you deplete your roster of talent, you're going to lose. Losing benefits their long term plan and the more losses that pile up, the better the chance they have at having their pick of the litter. that's the plan they laid out. So if some fans have bought in, and want the team to have a higher pick in Round 1 that's not because they're "losers", it's because they see the opportunity ahead to improve the team long term because that's how the FO is approaching it as well.
     
    Last edited: Nov 20, 2019
  12. jdallen1222

    jdallen1222 He can smell your fear

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    Those that are upset and literally crying when we win, ... expletives man. If you practice losing and getting bad at something, that is what you are known for. I hope this team never goes winless under any circumstances.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 20, 2019
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  13. Tin Indian

    Tin Indian Rockin' The Bottom End

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    Exactly. I can never condone this team ever trying to go winless under any circumstance. I Do Not Believe that you can only get a franchise QB with the 1st pick. The best QB's in the last few drafts seem to have come later. Much later than #1 overall and many haven't been highly though of coming out. Remember Jackson needs to switch to wide receiver. A bunch of nonsense.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 20, 2019
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  14. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Yeah I got no problem with people wanting us to win every game. The insults are all coming from the other side. Just don't stoop down to the level of saying those of us who want a high draft pick aren't "fans" of the team. We're here precisely because we're fans.

    Oh.. and as my posts early in the season will attest, I also wanted us to avoid going winless because 0-16 stands out. I wanted 1-15 or so.

    Let's be clear about the logic here though: just because the best QB in a draft is often taken later on does not mean that you have a higher chance of landing the best QB in the draft by picking later on. By far your best chance is to pick first. It's just that there are so many more picks later on that the chance of finding the best QB later on is higher.

    In other words you have to equate "sample size" in the comparison: you shouldn't compare pick #1 vs. all other picks. Instead, compare pick #1 vs. pick #62 for example, or picks 1-10 vs. picks 11-20, or all 1st rounders vs. all 2nd rounders, etc... And it's clear: odds are highest with pick #1 (obvious really: you get your first choice at QB, not your 2nd or 3rd choice).
     
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  15. Tin Indian

    Tin Indian Rockin' The Bottom End

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    1st point, never called anyone that wanted a high draft pick not a fan of the team.

    2nd point, I would have been fine at 1-15 as well. Just no way am I ever advocating going winless as some were.

    3rd point, I understand your logic about drafting higher up to get your pick of the available QB's. That is perfectly sound. What I am trying to point out is that the consensus "best QB" in the draft has not been the case since Andrew Luck was drafted. Ross, of all people, had Lamar Jackson pegged as the guy to get when many were saying he needed to switch to reciever. Unfortunately Grier went against him to draft a cb/s that whined his way out of town a year later. A couple years ago I had Deshaun Watson pegged as the best QB and he went in the 2nd.

    The point is don't get sucked into the hype and say we have to draft this guy or that guy because everyone says he is the best. That hasn't been accurate for a long time now.
     
  16. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

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    Hey @Arodgers12 !
    Problems? Lack of talent. Getting a new coach and staff etc. all in place. It's hard to talk about problems when the team are running a planned rebuild and have shed talent. We can try to evaluate what we've got but it's hard to know what we'll keep. It's a rough place to be - there's really not much to do but sit and wait, and dream.

    How are feeling about your new coach?
     
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  17. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Yeah I agree with all that.. except a few factual errors. Deshaun Watson was picked #12 in the 1st round, and I think you'd agree Russell Wilson was the best QB in the 2012 draft, not Luck.
     
    Tin Indian likes this.
  18. Tin Indian

    Tin Indian Rockin' The Bottom End

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    My mistake. I thought Watson didn't go til the 2nd, but hey 12 has a 2 in it! And yeah I'd take Wilson over Luck, especially now. But Luck did turn out to be pretty good.

    Peace!
     
    cbrad likes this.
  19. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    What’s gone wrong: Lack of talent, replacing half the starters with players signed in the two weeks before the season started. A swing and a miss on Josh Rosen. Former Dolphins coaches (Adam Gase and Zac Taylor) bombing their teams and putting our expected draft position at risk.

    Undecided: The Tunsil and M Fitzpatrick trades. Yes we gained a lot of draft capital, but they were two very good players who will be hard to replace.
    Brian Flores. It Generally takes 3 years to find out if you have a coach worth keeping. Flores has the team playing disciplined tough football and they don’t appear to have given up on the season, so I’m not on the “fire the bum” wagon, but I am not jumping on any “he’s the next Don Shula” wagons until year 3 at the earliest.

    what’s gone right: Nic Needham, Preston Williams and other unheralded players stepping up and playing quality ball.
     
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  20. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    But Luck COMING OUT was the far far better prospect. Hence he was #1 and Wilson went in the third. Which is precisely what Tin is saying. So I guess in reality you do agree with him.
     
  21. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    No you didn't read what he said carefully. He said "since Luck was drafted the consensus best QB in the draft hasn't turned out that way". In other words, he was implying that Luck was the last QB drafted where he was both the consensus best before the draft as well as after.

    And that's not correct, as Tin Indian admitted in his response to my post.

    Besides.. I don't think the claim it's not been true since 2012 (including 2012 or not) is true anyway. The last few drafts are too early to tell, but which QB has turned out the best from the 2015 draft? Probably the first one taken: Winston.
     
  22. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    if Winston is the best, and from my quick glance at the names on the list that seems a reasonable statement, then the 2015 draft must have produced the worst “best QB of the draft class” in history.
     
  23. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Not even close. Which was the best QB out of the 2013 draft class?

    EJ Manuel (taken 16th in round 1)
    Geno Smith
    Mike Glennon
    Matt Barkley
    Ryan Nassib
    Tyler Wilson
    Landry Jones
    Brad Sorensen
    Zac Dysert
    BJ Daniels
    Sean Renfree

    By passer rating it's Mike Glennon who was solidly below average and started only 22 games (794 total passing attempts) while by games started it's the great Geno Smith who was close to bottom of the barrel level with 31 games started and 906 passing attempts. So I think 2013 was WAY worse than 2015 in terms of QB talent that available.

    2007 was also bad:

    JaMarcus Russell (taken 1st overall)
    Brady Quinn
    Kevin Kolb
    Jon Beck
    Drew Stanton
    Trent Edwards
    Isaiah Stanbeck
    Jeff Rowe
    Troy Smith
    Jordan Palmer
    Tyler Thigpen

    Also, check out the 2010 QB draft class even if not as bad:

    Sam Bradford (taken 1st overall)
    Tim Tebow
    Jimmy Clausen
    Colt McCoy
    Mike Kafka
    John Skelton
    Jonathon Crompton
    Rusty Smith
    Dan LeFevour
    Joe Webb
    Tony Pike
    Levi Brown
    Sean Canfield
    Zac Robinson

    Best QB there was Sam Bradford whose career z-score is -0.1298 (a tad below Tannehill's).

    As you can see it's fairly common to have drafts with little to no talent at QB. Thankfully, 2020 looks like it should have some talent though we can't know for sure until they play in the NFL. At least the hype is better for Tua and Burrow than EJ Manuel lol.
     
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  24. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    This.

    I dont -want- the Dolphins to lose. I just recognize that immediate losses may help us -win- longer term.
     
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  25. Arodgers12

    Arodgers12 Well-Known Member

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    I hope you guys turn it around next year.
     
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  26. Arodgers12

    Arodgers12 Well-Known Member

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    How ya been Alex?
     
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  27. Arodgers12

    Arodgers12 Well-Known Member

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    Cbrad, Tim Indian, Pauly and Galant how you guys been? I miss getting on here more. Anyone seen Rocky Raccoon or Brandon27?
     
  28. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Yeah.. this is the one thing we can all agree on.

    Doing fine here. brandon27 posted in this thread: post #11. Rocky hasn't been around as far as I know.
     
  29. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    What really burned me up is when we went thru camp with 90 or so players, trimmed our roster down as the league mandates, then brought in over a dozen players at the last minute (I think it was 14 on that final day before the season started?). That alone should scare anyone on the "tank bandwagon" because it means from Grier's very first selections of being in charge, he had to cut/replace almost 25% of our total roster with players who never stepped foot on our field. That's terrifying that you're giving that person the keys to the Cadillac and telling him to drive it to a championship.

    I have some faith in Flores...it too soon to pass a verdict but I do like his tenacity turning this rag-tag group of castoffs around. But at the same time, I have ZERO faith that Grier can evaluate talent...everything he's done so far says he can't. So as we sign a dozen rookies in this draft and spend close to 100 million in free agency, I'm going to be ultra-critical of the next season. Tanking only makes sense if it leads to building a contender and grabbing several key pieces to the puzzle....otherwise we lost 13 games this season for absolutely nothing.

    And remember- we have to replace Tannehill, Stills, Tunsil, James, Fitzpatrick, Wake, Gore, Drake and Quinn....those are nine key pieces we had in place that Flores felt he could upgrade. Preston Williams replaced Stills so we can cross that one off the list, but we still likely need 3 more interior linemen, a corner, a linebacker and a safety. That's the entire 2019 draft plus hitting in free agency...it's not IMPOSSIBLE to do, but it's definitely a challenge when Grier didn't bring in ANY upgrades over our 2018 roster outside of undrafted Preston Williams and maybe Needham.

    I've been against tanking because at the end of the day, it all comes down to one thing- can Chris Grier have the draft of his life in 4 months? If he picks poorly then nothing else matters....we're screwed for a very long time. In fact, he could pick the best QB of the draft, bomb on the linemen, hit on the defensive selections and we're still back to being an 8-8 team. And while it would probably be "worth it" in the long run if we get our QB, who's to say we even recognize that we have our guy?

    As it stands today, you can't call Rosen a success or a bust from his very limited playing time....and that's critically important for this conversation. We'll be in the exact same position with a different QB next season unless Grier has a legendary draft/free agency in the trenches- yet we just let our best two linemen of the past decade walk.

    I can't drink the kool-aid on this one and assume it will all work out based on Grier's track record...which is why I still hate everything about this tank. Yet as a fan, I have no choice but to root for our team to win yet hope that they lose, just so Grier can have his shot at making us big winners or possibly among the dumbest franchise ever.
     
  30. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    I think you can fairly confidently say Rosen is a bust.

    I mean.. I agree sample size comes into play if you were to only look at year-by-year ratings, but Rosen is different from almost every other QB because he is the ONLY QB I can find where his first 16 starts had a passer rating below league average. Not even Ryan Leaf did that, though he came close (one game tied league average and one was way above). That is such a statistical abnormality you can't just ignore it. It generally doesn't matter how bad a QB is they'll still have some above average games. What Rosen has done so far is historic level bust.

    The disclaimer to that stat is of course that I don't have all QB's in my database, but I have almost all starters from 1978 onwards so that stat most likely applies to that group. The question is whether there's some backup out there that also did that.. but if there is it's pretty clear what kind of QB you're comparing him to. So as far as I'm concerned: Rosen = one of the biggest busts in QB history from 1978.
     
  31. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Do stats tell the entire story though? He had three TD passes dropped in the first two starts alone...beautiful deep TD passes that would have put him above 100 QBR those first two games. Jakeem and Preston just flat out choked on those three. He was also sacked 15 times in the first four games, despite showing WORLDS BETTER pocket presence over Tannehill. By comparison, he was sacked 45 times in Arizona across 16 games with the worst line in the league last season....yet this year he was on a projected path to 60 sacks; 33% worse than last year.

    I don't think you can go by stats alone in this instance when you're talking about historically bad teams. I mean, Kyler Murray posted a 93.3 rating against San Fran last week....but before that his previous month was 64.5, 51.6, 46.6, and 47.6.
     
  32. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Dropped passes aren't only affecting Rosen's stats, and most QB's with such a terrible statistical performance were on really bad teams. I mean Ryan Leaf was picked #2 overall and JaMarcus Russell #1 overall. That's because those were bad teams they were on. So this idea that only Rosen is getting hurt by his surrounding cast for his first 16 games isn't credible.

    As far as sacks are concerned, I think we already went through why that's not that good of a measure of pass blocking, but if you want to use it note that we weren't the worst in the league last year or (so far) this year. We were 3rd worst in sack percentage in 2018 and 3rd worst so far this season in sack percentage.

    And the point about Kyler Murray is interesting. He's had 4 out of his first 11 starts with above average rating. Just goes to show you how nearly impossible it is for a starting QB to have every game for the equivalent of a full season (16 games) be below average. That's like flipping a coin 16 times and getting tails every time IF you assume he actually is "average". How unlikely is that?

    That's a VERY powerful stat KeyFin. Obviously, it doesn't preclude a brighter future, but the odds are so far in favor of Rosen being a bust that for all practical reasons I think it's best to just assert that and say we can revisit this if some unbelievably unlikely event occurs.


    btw.. you're quoting the wrong stats with Murray. You're quoting ESPN's QBR. You need to use "passer rating":
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MurrKy00.htm
     
    Last edited: Nov 21, 2019
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  33. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Yes there have been games where the receivers have dropped TD passes. There have been games where passes have been tipped and turned into INTs. But that happens to all QBs.
    Over the course of 16 games you would expect there to be at least one game where receivers made crazy plays with their legs to score TDs. A tipped INT turning into a 1st down conversion.

    You must remember threads where people argued that a good statistical game for Tannehill wasn’t really a true indication of his play because of good play by receivers/bad play by defenders. Rosen has never had one of those type of games through 16 starts

    According to my eyes Rosen looks like a better QB than Ryan Leaf, JaMarcus Rusell, EJ Manuel or Geno Smith. Yet even Ryan Leaf has outperformed Rosen on this measure. At some point if the eye test is to be valid it has to show up in the numbers.

    edit to add:
    For Josh Rosen to be successful he must become a fundamentally different QB than what he’s shown. There was a news article recently where Rosen was quoted to the effect that Ryan Fitzpatrick had showed him his secret magic juju - film study, and how he will trek to the Himalayas to study this technique at the foot of the bearded guru. So there is some hope that if he applies himself properly he can become the QB people feel he is capable of becoming, but at the same time it shows his dedication to the job wasn’t what it should have been.
     
    Last edited: Nov 21, 2019
  34. Arodgers12

    Arodgers12 Well-Known Member

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    Hey Keyfin how ya been buddy?
     
  35. Arodgers12

    Arodgers12 Well-Known Member

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    Pauly good seeing you here my friend?
     
  36. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Doing well. Life in Japan is interesting.
    And you?
     
  37. Arodgers12

    Arodgers12 Well-Known Member

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    Nice! You just move there recently? I'm doing well, working a lot but other than that not much. Sorry about your season in Miami.
     
  38. Arodgers12

    Arodgers12 Well-Known Member

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    He's been very good. He is more aggressive in playcalling. He has had some head scratching playcalling this season though. How you been Galant?
     
  39. Arodgers12

    Arodgers12 Well-Known Member

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    I hate them with a passion. I feel sorry for ya that you have to deal with them. What's new with you Pukahead?
     
  40. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I'm not trying to say it's "only Rosen"...I'm trying to say that in any other conversation, you'd tell me not to judge a QB off of one season worth of performances. When we add that this team started the year with the worst point differential EVER, it's pretty tough to point the finger at a year 2 QB.

    I'll put this conversation on hold....hopefully there is another chapter to it (since that means Rosen takes the field in a Miami uniform again). My bigger point the whole time though wasn't how good/bad Rosen may be, but how this situation will repeat itself next season without an awesome, near-historic draft and free agency. I don't think Brady, Manning or Marino could have changed our fortunes starting out this season because the caliber of talent just wasn't there. Hopefully we won't still be having THAT CONVERSATION next year.
     

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