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Great Older Article on Fitzpatrick

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by KeyFin, Jun 6, 2019.

  1. Bumrush

    Bumrush Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Or on the road late in the season. Moot point and I’m glad we no longer have the team wide dumpster fires that plagued the team and the Tannehill era.

    Love Tannehill as a person and his toughness but I’m glad this debate is over. It will be more over when Fitzpatrick maneuvers the pocket and makes some big boy throws when things break down.
     
  2. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Tannehill sucked at dealing with any kind of pressure to put it mildly..
     
  3. Bumrush

    Bumrush Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Funny that people that actually gamble on the sport are betting on the over win margin by a 3 to 1 ratio. I don’t believe Miami will be worse and I certainly think our offense and defense will be more productive statistically even if our win total stays the same or is less. I think we’ll have a lot more hope going in to 2020 than in many years.
     
  4. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Made up approach? lol..

    Listen, when someone cherry picks stats from an 8 game stretch and compares it to full season stats, that's called "bad methodology" by every single statistician and scientist on this planet that knows how to do research. Every single one of them will either say to compare "apples to apples", which in this case is either compare all "best 8 game stretches" or they'll suggest doing a hypothesis test, which btw I've also done many times to show Tannehill didn't do anything above average.

    So whatever you think about "proper methodology" doesn't matter here as you have YEARS of arguing against standard methods in math and science without understanding them one iota. I mean you're the one that didn't even understand joint probability and kept arguing to no end that a simple conditional probability calculation was logically incorrect.

    So once again we're back to the old Fin D. Not responding to your crap dude. Live with your own ignorance and don't think you're fooling ANYONE with that crap of "WADR" which in your case means "with absolutely NO respect".

    And yes.. as always go ahead and have that last word you so crave. Peace out.
     
  5. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    I'm sorry but that's just not true.

    First of all, "non clutch situations" isn't a metric or even a thing.

    Secondly, he was the starting QB on that team that rattled off all those wins. Saying he didn't contribute is literally not factual.

    Thirdly, your Top 10 Rule is a thing you invented.

    Lastly, that was a helluva an extended but of time. But like "clutch suituations" you aren't really defining what that amount fo time would be and I suspect its parameters are just fluid enough to be more than any time frame Thill could ever play in.
     
  6. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    And it ain’t like Ryan’s only fatal flaw was dealing with pressure.. he has a few.
     
  7. Bumrush

    Bumrush Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Tannehill didn’t throw with much anticipation or with good instinct. His accuracy and deep ball were off the charts but it wasn’t enough.
     
  8. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    Yes, you made up that approach.

    Me not accepting everything you say wholesale is not an example of me having a bad attitude or starting trouble or whatever else you're acting like I was doing. You aren't infallible.

    I'm also not a liar. If I type WADR, I mean it.

    I didn't;t cherry pick actually. You did though. During that stretch, he was top 10. Any other time, that is enough to say a QB is playing at a Top 10 level....unless that QB is Thill, because then we have to literally find anyway to make the stats show it was a lie or meaningless.

    You are being childish.
     
  9. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    No he didn't.
     
  10. Bumrush

    Bumrush Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Is there any other QB whose 7 year track record gets whittled down to an 8 game stretch? Just wondering who else gets judged that way in the NFL.
     
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  11. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    For me? No, I am a fan of the Dolphins so i pay attention to them and I don't really to others.

    I doubt Thill is the only QB to get a raw deal. The 8 game stretch is significant because a few of us said there was a handful of things that needed to happen for Thill to play at a Top 10 level. That 8 game stretch he got those things and played at a top 10 level. We took a lot of crap for saying it, and still are, even though we were literally 100% right.

    My issue now is I'm just leery of the constant hyperbole. My first post in this thread was just a reflection of that.
     
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  12. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    What’s interesting about that approach is that you could probably take a decent sample of Hall of Fame quarterbacks and diminish their careers to eight games in which they played very poorly by their standards and then call them terrible.
     
  13. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    You're not understanding the point.

    No one is saying Thill is or was going to be a HoF QB. But there is a gulf of distance between HoF and sucks. Saying Thill sucked is absurd.
     
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  14. Bumrush

    Bumrush Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    You could also say Ryan Fitzpatrick is a hall of famer after his torrid start last year.
     
  15. Bumrush

    Bumrush Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I don't think anyone thinks he sucked. Sucked would be Ray Lucas or John Beck.

    Not sucking doesn't mean you're good or above mediocre either. His career record as a starting QB is a pretty good barometer of what Tannehill is. Slightly below mediocre. And that's not enough nor is it anything any franchise should strive for. That's why Peyton Manning with a broken neck has a bidding war for his services and Ryan Tannehill doesn't get a single taker that see's him as a starter.
     
  16. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    There are plenty of people saying he sucked or didn't;t play like an NFL caliber QB.

    No one is saying he is all the franchise should have strived for.
     
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  17. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Clutch is defined as the change in win probability associated with a play.
     
  18. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    It's not a thing that is accurately measured. So you cannot use it as a metric. Hence me saying it is not a metric or a thing.
     
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  19. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Below average will suffice.
     
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  20. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    What type of pressure did tannehill thrive in?
     
  21. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    He wasn't below average.
     
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  22. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    Is there only thrive or suck?
     
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  23. Bumrush

    Bumrush Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    His winning percentage was below average. His third down conversion ratio was below average. His QB rating was below average over the course of his career. His road record and rating was below average. He was the very definition of below average and Miami's record reflected that. The last above average QB in Miami was Chad Pennington

    Also, if he was viewed as above average at least one team in the NFL would have been salivating to bring him in. Instead, he is going to be a backup behind a younger QB.

    This debate is settled. The team spoke and the league spoke. If he comes in and lights it up in Tennessee than we can revisit this discussion
     
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  24. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    And yet, when a small and reasonable set of circumstances were presented, he excelled.
     
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  25. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    But apparently in those eight games the stars aligned for him. Of course there is no attention at all paid to the probability with which such stars can regularly align for any team, and over what period of time it can be expected to regularly happen in the league.

    In other words, whatever conglomeration of variables permitted Tannehill to play at that level for those eight games could in fact be a league-wide anomaly that can be expected to occur almost never. And if that’s the case, then Tannehill can be expected to play in that way almost never.

    Instead, the prevailing belief by some appears to be that the better quarterbacks in the league are the beneficiaries of such alignments of stars, rather than their own individual ability. If Tannehill could only experience the same situational variables they do, he would play like them.
     
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  26. Bumrush

    Bumrush Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    So you know more than evaluators and the rest of the NFL? Why isn't there a savvy team out there willing to take a chance on setting him up to excel?
     
  27. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    Which NFL evaluators have you spoken to about Thill?
     
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  28. Bumrush

    Bumrush Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    They valued him as a day 3 pick. That's a fact.
     
  29. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    And?
     
  30. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Those 8 games weren't even special for Tannehill. You know I always adjust ratings to a common year, but for 2014 and 2016 you really don't need to because league average ratings were essentially identical (88.9 in 2014 and 89.3 in 2016). So compare games 4-11 in 2014 and 6-13 in 2016. Tannehill had a 102.37 rating over games 4-11 in 2014 while he had a 100.13 rating over games 6-13 in 2016.
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/T/TannRy00/gamelog/

    So that wasn't even his best 8 game stretch though the difference is tiny.

    Now.. when you DO adjust ratings you can see something else important. Let's adjust to the year 2016. It turns out that when all 88 games Tannehill started are adjusted to that year the standard deviation in his adjusted passer ratings is 25.58. Why is that important? League average rating in 2016 was 89.3 and Tannehill's best single game performance was 130.6, which is 41.3 passer rating points above league average, or 1.61 standard deviations above league average. Statistical significance is achieved at 1.96 (usually rounded to 2 but 1.96 is the exact number) so none of Tannehill's stats in that "fabled" 8 game stretch in 2016 were statistically significant.

    Seriously.. there's no anomaly of any sort here.
     
  31. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Right, and that’s good information. The point I was making was that the situational variables to which his performance during that time is attributed could in fact be a league-wide anomaly.

    In other words, it’s possible that the stars align in that way for any team in the league almost never, which would mean that Tannehill could be expected to play in that way almost never.

    Instead the belief appears to be that it’s a regular occurrence throughout the league, and that the league’s best quarterbacks are regular beneficiaries of it.
     
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  32. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    Or it could be because, his line wasn't allowing jail breaks, they didn't;t abandon the run game and he was allowed to audible. Which none of those things happened before.
     
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  33. Bumrush

    Bumrush Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Why hasn't another team in the NFL picked up on this, given that he's still young and approaching the age when most QBs hit their peak? If that's so obvious you'd think teams would be lining up for him. His knee is fine and showed no signs of regression last year. Drew Brees had a far worse shoulder injury than Tannehill had last year and there was a bidding war for him.

    Fact is that most fans and evaluators outside of our little bubble have deemed him as a backup.
     
  34. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    Dunno.

    But why were a few of us saying he needed those three things to be a Top 10 QB for years before it happened, then they happened and he was in the Top 10. Purely coincidence?
     
  35. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    In what sense?

    Statistics say he was, record says he was, Pff says he was, QBR says he was, The rest of the league says he was, imo he was..
     
  36. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Below average, average, above average, really good, great..
     
  37. Bumrush

    Bumrush Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Good point. Personally I think Tannehill always played well when the media and fanbase started to turn on him. He had his 2014 run when Philbin didn't commit to him as a starter and again in 2016 when there was constant chatter and questioning about his viability as a starter when Gase first arrived.

    I think the biggest challenge for Ryan was maintaining that pissed off attitude which had him playing loose. I argued this over and over again. I thought Gase could motivate him better than Philbo and push his buttons but he always reverted back to who he was once things settled down.
     
  38. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Posted without seeing but yes
     
  39. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I can find that sample size your basing this on by Ryan Fitzpatrick that would make him look like chump change..
     
  40. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    I honestly don't think it had anything to do with being pissed.

    It had to do with being on an offense that wasn't;t one dimensional with some tools to combat the pass rush like being able to audible. I mean again, those 3 things were called and they happened...I don't know why it is more than that.
     
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