1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

Great Older Article on Fitzpatrick

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by KeyFin, Jun 6, 2019.

  1. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

    5,622
    7,375
    113
    Nov 1, 2009
    Umm, take a peek around the league- Brady. Big Ben. Prescott (and Romo before him). Luck. They all have excellent lines and line coaches. Three of those four teams are also perennial playoff squads as well...Indy isn't only because Luck missed some time to injury. The line has always been crucial yet we've ignored it for over a decade now, trying to instead fill holes with aging veterans instead of DEVELOPING talent.

    Because that's the thing- a great line can be developed with mid to late round picks. We just haven't had the coaching, scouting or the right types of linemen to accomplish that. I honestly believe Brady would be a 7-9 win QB in Miami just like RT has been....LOL, and he'd quickly retire as well.

    And for the record, I'm not trying to "talk up" Tannehill at all. He's freaking horrible in the pocket under pressure....possibly the absolute worst in the entire league (starters and backups). Combine that with him being pressured more than average, time to pressure, etc. (I looked for 10 minutes and couldn't find any pressure stats....we've had them here before though) and it was a recipe for disaster. And I honestly blame the front office just as much as Tannehill.

    I mean, you can't get mad at a cat for being born calico. Well, in this example, the Fins drafted a calico cat, knew his limitations from day one but never tried to do anything about it at a high level. I can't be mad at a guy for being bad at what he's always been bad it...it's literally like disliking a cat or a dog because of it's color.
     
    resnor and Surfs Up 99 like this.
  2. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

    6,915
    7,658
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    Luck isn't a good example. Last year he had a good OL, but from 2012-2014 where Indy went 11-5 each year he had a bad OL. Russell Wilson is another example of a QB with a bad OL yet perennially successful. And what about Rivers? You don't usually think of good OL with the Chargers. Sticking to the newer generation of QB's, what about Watson? Houston isn't known for good OL. KC would be if healthy but they had a ton of OL injuries last year yet Mahomes compensated.

    Point is.. there are many examples of good/elite QB's succeeding in spite of bad OL. Not saying that's the norm, but it's more common than you're suggesting.
     
    Hooligan, Surfs Up 99 and KeyFin like this.
  3. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

    3,024
    2,846
    113
    Nov 29, 2007
    Yeah, but Luck’s success 2012-2014 had much more to do with how bad the rest of the AFC South was at that time, it was not that Luck performed better than an average QB would. Also he went 19-4 in 0-7 point games in those years, and since that time his win% in 0-7 point games is closer to 50% (10-10).
     
    resnor and Surfs Up 99 like this.
  4. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

    6,915
    7,658
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    Yeah I was just taking the list of QB's KeyFin posted and ran with it. I mean.. seen from a purely statistical angle, neither Luck nor Prescott should have been mentioned. Luck because he's still not statistically elite (weighted 2018-adjusted career rating is 93.64 when league average is 92.9) and Prescott because it's looking like that rookie year was more an anomaly than anything else.

    Not necessary to make my point though. Even if you allow the argument that they're good/elite QB's (there are quite a few people that look at Luck's skillset and say he's elite, and IF they're right that will eventually show up in his career stats), there are quite a few playoff teams with such QB's that have bad OL.
     
    Surfs Up 99 likes this.
  5. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

    5,622
    7,375
    113
    Nov 1, 2009
    I agree completely- there are some that do a lot with average lines. And guess what....they all handle the pocket better than Tannehill. The bigger takeaway is that people try to replicate the success of NE, Pitt, Dallas, etc. with their "ultra elite" QB's, but they never try to replicate the line.

    And that's why those same teams stay at the top for so long...in my opinion anyway.

    Coming back to Tannehill though, everyone knows he sucks under pressure, yet produces consistent numbers when the protection is there. How ON EARTH didn't they focus solely on the line year after year until they had a cohesive unit? I'm not making an argument for/against RT here...I'm saying the front office failed all of us by not making it a priority. You can't tell me that the college scouting report didn't mention "sometimes makes bad decisions and/or panics under pressure." If it didn't, then there was even more problems to iron out...

    My point is that RT is not Watson, Rivers or Wilson...he never did and never will have that sort of potential when it comes to avoiding the rush. But he could potentially be a Tony Romo or a Big Ben behind a solid line. With average protection though, he's an average QB that could turn into a huge liability. You absolutely need to play to your QB's strengths and for RT, a great line is a part of that.

    Oh, and the teams I named were more because of their reputation of consistently winning the division and/or making the playoffs....which is why I listed 2 QB's for Dallas. I wasn't arguing there were all necessarily elite; just that they had ample playoff experience due to a "complete" offense.
     
    cbrad, resnor and Surfs Up 99 like this.
  6. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

    3,024
    2,846
    113
    Nov 29, 2007
    Serious question. If we define “Elite” for a QB as being +1 standard deviation above average, what is the chance Andrew Luck is genuinely an elite QB given his record so far?
     
  7. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    474
    435
    63
    Oct 1, 2018
    At one point Tannehill had first-round picks at left tackle (Albert), left guard (Tunsil), center (Pouncey), and right tackle (James), and a previous Pro Bowl player at right guard (Bushrod).

    The fact that things didn’t work out as planned speaks to the difficulty of achieving success as greater numbers of players are required to do so, and at its root is a knock on Tannehill for being so dependent on that. The team certainly tried to invest the resources in the offensive line.

    The underlying point of my post you quoted was really that if you equip every team in the league with an elite offensive line, average quarterback play becomes redefined, and Tannehill is no longer anywhere near top-five, even with such a line. You have to hope Tannehill has such a line, while hoping lots of other teams don’t.

    Both things are tall orders, and again the need for both things is a knock on Tannehill. His extreme need is the root of the problem.
     
    Hooligan likes this.
  8. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

    71,727
    42,338
    113
    Nov 27, 2007
    When that line was around, and the new offense was installed, didn't Thill rank Top 10?
     
    resnor likes this.
  9. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    474
    435
    63
    Oct 1, 2018
    When the stars aligned in that way, Tannehill did play well compared to his typical performance, but again even then he made his living against poorer competition and in non-clutch situations, which didn’t augur well for his performance in the playoffs, had he ever made them.

    So in the end what you had was a quarterback who needed the stars to align to play significantly better than his average, and even that level of play was only good enough to get him beaten fairly easily by typical playoff competition.
     
  10. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

    71,727
    42,338
    113
    Nov 27, 2007
    I mean, I'm told that Gase, Philbin and Thill all suck. Yet our record was pretty much perfectly average over their entire tenure.

    Then I'm told, the current team, which is essentially identical (literally and/or talent wise) to the ones Thill QB'd during his time here, should be in the running for top pick.

    I'm told that the QB is supposed to elevate his team's level of play and numerous stars who played with Thill fizzle out everywhere else, from Hartline to Clay to Miller to Ajayi. In fact, Landry is the only skill player Thill ever had that is still good somewhere else.

    So, bad coaching, bad skill talent, bad defense, yet, a playoff appearance, often splitting with the Pats and a perfectly average record is somehow an indictment of Thill. All while removing him from the equation now makes us an extremely below average team.......

    At some point, the logic has to square up and it just isn't.

    We either have to change our perception of a QB's impact on a team and record OR we have to see that Thill took a below average team with below average coaching and raised their level to at least average, which would mean he far from sucks.
     
    resnor likes this.
  11. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

    6,915
    7,658
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    No.. when you make the proper comparison, which is to compare Tannehill's best 8 game stretch in 2016 to all other QB's best 8 game stretches in 2016 he was ranked #12 with a 100.13 rating, just like he was ranked #12 overall in 2016 with his 93.5 rating.
    Even with solid protection in 2016 he wasn't elite when the proper comparison is made. So the "potential" you're talking about isn't something he ever demonstrated over any extended period (150+ passing attempts).
     
    The Guy and KeyFin like this.
  12. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

    6,915
    7,658
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    He's never performed at that level in ANY year, so pretty low. Here are his z-scores:
    2012: -0.7911
    2013: 0.0844
    2014: 0.7678
    2015: -1.7321
    2016: 0.6320
    2018: 0.4838

    Luck is a great example of a QB that can "look" elite in many games (even I'll admit that), but the expected production isn't there.
     
    The Guy and Pauly like this.
  13. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    94,430
    46,688
    113
    Dec 20, 2007
    No one has ever been mad at tannehill, you just have to take the fan out of you when you feel you have a player that’s not good enough..He wasn’t good enough to do his job under pressure, regardless of circumstance past, present, or what could of been..Pressure will always come.
     
    Last edited: Jun 12, 2019
    Surfs Up 99 and The Guy like this.
  14. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

    13,150
    7,186
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    New Hampshire
    But that's been the point all along. Even with "elite" QBs. How do you get Brady to have a bad game? Pressure him. Hit him. Knock him down. You've got to have other pieces around to help.
     
  15. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

    6,915
    7,658
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    I think there's ample statistical evidence Tannehill is at or slightly below an average QB (the rookie year hurts but it counts for everyone). Thing is, adjusting Tannehill's stats for defense doesn't change anything: z-score still at -0.11. That's mostly because we had a top 10 defense in 2012 and 2013, a slightly below average one in 2014-2016, and a horrible one in 2018.. averages out.

    Our running game was also decent in many years. Measuring by Y/A because Y/G is confounded by whether the team is leading or not, we were ranked #2 in 2014 and were top 10 in 2015, 2016 and 2018. So other than OL I don't buy the argument some make that the overall surrounding cast was that bad, on average of course over Tannehill's career.

    Given all that, it's no surprise we went overall average. And as far as Gase.. he is so far an average coach going by win%. So I see no issue there too. So no I don't think we need to re-evaluate influence of QB or so. Tannehill was average and we performed average. The question this year is whether we'll get even an average level of performance at the QB position. If we do as poorly at QB as Rosen played his rookie year, then 3-4 wins should be expected. But if we play Fitz and he plays at his career average level, then we should expect 7 wins in 2019 (equation is: Win% = 1.04*PR - 46.73 with career 2018-adjusted PR = 87.02 for Fitz.. gives you 7 expected wins).
     
    The Guy likes this.
  16. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

    13,150
    7,186
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    New Hampshire
    Top 10 in what stat? I remember people saying that, but it wasn't top 10 in points allowed, which is really all that matters.
     
  17. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

    6,915
    7,658
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    Yeah it was top 10 in points allowed:
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/mia/index.htm

    We were ranked #7 and #8 in points allowed in 2012 and 2013, respectively. I know.. so long ago one forgets lol.
     
    Pauly and resnor like this.
  18. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

    13,150
    7,186
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    New Hampshire
    Stand corrected. They were 7th in scoring in 2012.
     
    cbrad likes this.
  19. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

    13,150
    7,186
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    New Hampshire
    HOWEVER

    It is foolish to attribute losing to a rookie QB. He wasn't even supposed to start that season. Then you throw in the terrible coaching, and I'd argue that getting only 7 wins with almost a top 5 defense for points allowed is ALL ON THE COACHES.
     
  20. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

    5,622
    7,375
    113
    Nov 1, 2009
    LOL, I spent years being mad at Tannehill in December....I think we all have.
     
    resnor likes this.
  21. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

    6,915
    7,658
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    No you DO want to attribute losing to whatever the cause is, even if it's a rookie QB. Like I said in post #95 (first sentence) that rookie year hurts but we're counting rookie years for everyone so it's not like that's only hurting Tannehill in a comparison of careers. But yes I do agree that there were a ton of factors, including coaches, leading to those 7 wins in 2012.

    Having said that, I've never had a problem with people only looking at Tannehill from 2014 onwards because I've shown that on average by year 3 you get close to career average passer rating for most QB's (technically you hit that plateau year 5 but the difference between year 3 and year 5 is pretty small).
     
    The Guy likes this.
  22. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    94,430
    46,688
    113
    Dec 20, 2007
    No all qbs deal with it differently, you can’t just lump Brady’s lack of athleticism into some group that tannehill goes in, Brady deals with pressure before it happens, and being nifty with his footwork, you have anticipation context, peripheral vision to take into account..

    No tannehill dealt with pressure differently, in a bad way relative to other pocket qbs.
     
  23. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    94,430
    46,688
    113
    Dec 20, 2007
    Well when you look at it like that, I mean I was mad at him for being stupid in football context even though he was supposedly intelligent.
     
  24. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

    13,150
    7,186
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    New Hampshire
    It's common sense, though, DJ. The overwhelming majority of QBs are better throwing from a standing position, versus on the run. Even a guy like Wilson is going to be more accurate standing on an empty field, throwing at a target, versus running around away from defenders and trying to throw downfield. So, yes, pressure still negatively effects even most scrambling QBs.
    Brady only deals with it better before it happens if he's able to. When he's unable to, and he starts getting hit, he's terrible. Just like pretty much every QB ever.
     
  25. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

    1,955
    1,484
    113
    Jan 15, 2008
    New York
    Wow, you guys really need the season to start.
     
    The Guy likes this.
  26. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

    6,915
    7,658
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    Yeah we like football and we're Dolphins fans!

    This season's going to have a different flavor to it though: NO pressure to succeed. A welcome change IMO.. at least until 2020.
     
    KeyFin and The Guy like this.
  27. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    474
    435
    63
    Oct 1, 2018
    I would contend that all of those facets of the team you mentioned are in fact average, and so there was really no unexpected accomplishment.

    The most likely level of performance for any facet of any team in the league is average.
     
  28. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    474
    435
    63
    Oct 1, 2018
    No one is going to argue that. What they should argue, however, is whether there is significant variation among quarterbacks in how they respond to pressure, and how dependent they are on the relative absence of pressure.

    As soon as you say a quarterback needs an elite offensive line to play significantly above average, you are implicitly distinguishing him from the quarterbacks who don’t.
     
  29. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

    13,150
    7,186
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    New Hampshire
    Literally NO ONE on the Tannehill dude if the debate has ever argued Tannehill needed an ELITE oline. We always argued that he needed an average oline. And, no, that is not determined by the draft position of each player on the line.
     
  30. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    474
    435
    63
    Oct 1, 2018
    What kind of offensive line is he thought to have had during his best stretches of play in his career?
     
  31. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

    13,150
    7,186
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    New Hampshire
    One of the worst performing lines in league, year in and year out.

    Please tell me we're not entering the phase where you proceed to argue that the oline has been fine all along.
     
  32. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    94,430
    46,688
    113
    Dec 20, 2007
    Elite line or not pressure is gonna come..
     
    Last edited: Jun 12, 2019
  33. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    474
    435
    63
    Oct 1, 2018
    If he had one of the worst offensive lines in the league year in and year out, then how can that possibly be related to the variation in his own play?

    If there was no variation in the offensive line, then the offensive line couldn’t have possibly caused the variation in his own play that did occur.

    If the argument is that the offensive line was largely responsible for Tannehill’s play, then Tannehill’s performance has to have varied as a function of variation in offensive line play. But what you’re saying is that the offensive line never varied.
     
  34. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

    71,727
    42,338
    113
    Nov 27, 2007
    WADR, that is a made up approach by you.

    After the first four games when the rest of the team and Gase were all on the same page, Thill was a Top 10 QB by the time he got hurt.
     
  35. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

    3,024
    2,846
    113
    Nov 29, 2007
    In the early years people wanted to see what he could do with average to good lines. It was in the later years people moved to saying he needed a good to elite line. Although that shift may have been affected by his performance after returning from his knee injury.

    In any event everyone said that he had problems when the line allowed pressure, especially unexpected pressure from whiffed blocks or unforeseen blitzes.
     
  36. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

    71,727
    42,338
    113
    Nov 27, 2007
    Because some of it was play design and calling. For example....

    Remember when everyone freaked out when we found out that Sherman had Thill yell "go" or "go go" depending on run or pass? We freaked out because there was no element of surprise. The defense always knew when one or the other was coming. Well, even from there until Gase's first year, we had some of the fewest rushing attempts in the league, year in and year out. Like bottom 5 fewest. So again, the defense knew what we were calling, because we almost never ran.
     
    resnor likes this.
  37. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

    71,727
    42,338
    113
    Nov 27, 2007
    And again, there's a difference between pressure from 1 player and pressure from 3 players. There's also a difference between a defense knowing if it was going to be run or pass.
     
    resnor likes this.
  38. Bumrush

    Bumrush Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    20,620
    18,596
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    For the love of God, and I’m pretty much atheist, can we stop talking about Tannehill?

    The Tannehill era was mediocre on every level and we’ll never know how good or bad he could have been in Miami.

    Let’s discuss fun things, not a washed up QB.
     
  39. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    474
    435
    63
    Oct 1, 2018
    Again, however, that was against poorer competition in non-clutch situations, which again did not augur well for his performance in the playoffs, had he ever made them.

    Second, top 10 is significant only when it becomes top four. Quarterbacks five through 10 need roughly as much help from the rest of their teams as do the average quarterbacks in the league.

    When you consider those two points, the fact that Tannehill may have been top 10 rings hollow. It has very little meaning in terms of winning, and especially winning in the playoffs.

    There was never any extended period of time in Tannehill‘s career when he played like a quarterback who would be expected to win in the playoffs. That’s a pretty decisive finding in terms of the ultimate goal of every team in the league, which is of course winning a Super Bowl.
     
  40. Bumrush

    Bumrush Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    20,620
    18,596
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    Resnor I fear you will become a Titans fan when Mariota goes down... we’ll welcome you back with open arms Resnor!
     

Share This Page