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Good post game write up by Wingfield.

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by djphinfan, Aug 10, 2018.

  1. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    He’s cool..
     
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  2. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Sure. Yet what is consistently ignored is that Tannehill has already shown that his play is already there, but you need other guys to actually, you know, make plays. I don't care how good your QB is, he still needs other players to make plays.
     
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  3. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    You guys over complicate this Tannehill stuff so much.

    He’s been solid at times and underwhelming at times.

    When he’s been solid he was a huge part of it, when he’s been underwhelming he’s been part of it.

    Yes he has to prove a lot of things still. Quite simple.
     
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  4. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Tannehill is considered at best average by most insiders (i.e. GM's, HC's, OC's, DC's, personnel evaluators and other position coaches). You know they've had this QB tier ranking where they asked such insiders for 5 years now and Tannehill is consistently in that "Tier 3" category and usually in the lower part of it. In other words, most experts in football put him in the category of "legitimate starter, but needs a heavy running game and defense to win".

    So professionals that try to evaluate the player in isolation generally think that Tannehill has NOT shown he's adding to win%.

    Then you look at parts of our surrounding cast the 3 years Tannehill played OK, from 2014-2016. Note the running game. You want to look at Y/A here not Y/G because Y/G is affected by having a lead. Well.. in 2014 we were 2nd best in the league in rushing Y/A, in 2015 we were 10th best and in 2016 we were 7th best. So he's had the running game.

    WR? How many people here said that with Parker, Landry and Stills we had one of the better WR groups? A lot. That's a decent group regardless of how you slice it. It's only the OL that's been a problem.

    Yeah.. so how many good QB's are blessed with above average ability at ALL positions in the supporting cast? Very few.

    Either way, from a purely statistical point of view, whether you remove defense, running game etc.. or not, you come to the same conclusion as those experts: average to at best slightly above.

    No, Tannehill hasn't "proven" his play is above average. That's a hypothesis that COULD be true but is very unlikely given the data we have so far, and the only way for him to prove otherwise is to actually perform top 10 this year.
     
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  5. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    And according to Jalen Ramsey, Big Ben is "decent at best."
     
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  6. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    That's why they poll a lot of people (50 in the 2018) in those QB tier rankings, not just one. Jalen's a trash talker, but if you go through what he said about QB's, a lot of stuff he said has some merit. I obviously don't agree with his opinion that Roethlisberger is "decent at best".. I mean I operate from a data-driven perspective and that's just total bull****.
     
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  7. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Yes, I get that. But how many of these people being polled have actually studied Tannehill and the dolphins? What are they basing their ranking on? I'd be shocked if it's based on anything other than their feelings based on wins/losses or pure stats. People who actually analyze Tannehill's play cone away with a different analysis of his play.

    And that's been consistent throughout his whole career.
     
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  8. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Also the argument using Parker/Stills/Landry is really flawed. On paper, great lineup. In reality, though, Parker has been underwhelming, Stills hasn't been nearly as effective with an oline that couldn't allow time for routes to develop downfield, and Landry was a target machine for a multitude of reasons outside of the QB.
     
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  9. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    That's definitely possible. But we've also heard a lot of "Tannehill will be top 10 next year" predictions on this forum by people who have followed him (most likely) a lot more closely than those experts.

    Point is.. this is a great year because it's about as good a test of which views are correct that we'll have, unless of course Tannehill gets injured again (2017 was supposed to be that year).
    Well.. it's not clear how much of a difference a better QB would have made, so I can't dismiss the WR argument.
     
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  10. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Not enough.

    I have him around 15-16 with the arrow pointing up. But to suggest he has PROVEN much beyond a stretch that Cbrad already outlines for everyone is just false.
     
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  11. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Yes, been some of those predictions... But yet every year we've had an awful oline. LOL.

    Yes, if you're going to tout that receiver group as evidence that Tannehill was below average, then you have to factor in the oline, and a new year in the system. Evaluating Tannehill is really not as simple as some guys on here try to make it out to be.
     
  12. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I said his play has proven that with simply average play around him, he would look way different. That's always been the argument. Tannehill could literally change nothing, but if the defense could get a stop, out the oline could block even around average, the results would be drastically different. However, better QB play isn't going to get correct routes run, or an oline to block, or a defense to get stops.
     
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  13. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    I never said he was below average.. either average or slightly above, and of course I pointed out the OL has been an issue.

    But you're definitely right that evaluating Tannehill, or any other QB where it's not "obvious" what's going on, is not that simple. Just keep in mind that also goes for those saying he's way better than most people think.
     
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  14. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    This is also assuming that Wrs aren’t running correct routes for the most part. OL has certainly been bottom tier overall, defense has been average.

    You’re right however, Ryan is and has always been a product of his environment. Good and bad.

    We should all hold hands and pray Kenyan Srake provides us with a solid run game. If not? History says our season will be a long one.
     
  15. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    No, Ryan Tannehill has not been a product of the environment. The win/loss record is a product of the environment.
     
  16. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    You just said Ryan suffered because of all these disadvantages surrounding him, now you are saying he isn't a product of his environment?

    Which one is it?
     
  17. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    You are awful with communication. You are constantly conflating success in stats with how Tannehill is playiNg. You say he is a product of his environment. I disagree. I don't believe Tannehill's individual play is actually affected by the team as much. His stats suffer. I'm saying that Tannehill doesn't play bad when his teammates are bad, or only good when his teammates are good.
     
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  18. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Double standards.

    You've complained about every single facet of this offense for 5 years, claiming that Ryan has been the victim of his coaches/OL/Wrs and any other nuance you can try and drum up to excuse when he has played poor.

    And now, you really are going to say he isn't a product of his environment?

    I'll just say what most people know you feel.

    When Ryan struggles or is inconsistent, it's usually someone else fault. When his teammates and coaching are very good (see mid 2016) then it's Ryan who finally just has "average" surroundings.

    It's comical, but Ive been laughing at people who think this way for 6 years now, so certainly not surprising. I feel like you should be the host of MSNBC with all the double talking you do.
     
  19. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    You are a riot.
     
  20. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Fixed...:chuckle:
     
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  21. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    The other thing to mention about Tannehill has that his coaching staff, particularly the OC, has been substandard and that has definitely been deleterious to his production.
    Sherman’s offense was diagrammed by experts and shown to be inadequate. Lazor’s offensive design was good, but there’s clear evidence opposing teams were able to exploit his kniwn tendencies
     
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  22. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    This is true.

    However he now has a coach that is best known for his work with Qb's. That is why we all expect big things this year.
     
  23. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    It's funny to hear you, Fin-O, complain about someone else supposedly contradicting themselves. You say whenever Tannehill struggles excuses are made. What does it look like when he struggles? Of course, every QB is going to struggle sometimes. The problem is, you've always used wins and losses to determine Tannehill's struggles, and you still are. I'm saying, I do not believe that Tannehill plays drastically different... Sure, when the oline is awful, he has to do certain things differently, but you don't really see Tannehill's mechanics go crazy when the team is playing poorly. That's what I'm getting at.

    Now, feel free to disagree, but try doing it without trolling.
     
  24. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    More fake news from you.

    I will pay for 5 years of club for you if you can show me ONE....ONE post where I’ve used W’s or L’s as a Tannehill barometer.

    ONE.

    Good luck with that search because I’ve never said anything like that and that’s because I’ve never felt that way.

    It’s not cool to constantly make things up, dumb shot like that should be a TOS violation if you ask me.

    Hell let’s make it 6 years of club. I’ll be waiting.
     
  25. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Sorry, you lost me at "fake news". How can anyone hear that phrase in 2018 and not immediately bust out laughing?

    I mean, it's sort of like talking about playing with yourself as a kid. We will all admit that everyone else has done it, but nobody will say that they've done it themselves. That's what the media does in this day and age- people no longer know what fake news even is. I think that should be the new national drinking game.....anytime it's seen or mentioned, everyone has to drink a beer. Then we'd all be too drunk to read all the fake news out there.
     
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  26. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Sadly, people can just type up any old thing they want about you and it be okay.

    Luckily only a couple of people do that.
     
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  27. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    And Brady hasn't needed a strong running game and/or defense to win?

    That's why I don't put much worth into those evaluators. I don't believe they are truthful when the make their opinions public.

    RT has the skills and brains to be a very good, well above average QB. Some QB's have the skills but no brains or brains but no skill. He's not the smartest (Manning, Brady, Brees), and he's not the most skilled (Rodgers, Wilson, Brees), but he's just as good as Big Ben, Matt Ryan, etc. And out of all of those QB's only Manning, Rodgers, and (arguably) Brees can elevate a below average team into an above average to good team.
     
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  28. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    I'd put his play around average for most of his career. However, I do believe he can be a top 10 QB.
     
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  29. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    The better the surrounding cast the better the win%. That's true for everyone. But there's clear statistical evidence Brady has vastly improved the win% of the Patriots, even when accounting for the defense. Not sure if you saw this post awhile back but I calculated a defense adjusted career z-score (translated to passer rating in 2017) for all QB's from 1970 and Brady came in 11th overall among QB's with 4000+ passing attempts, and 14th overall if you threshold by 2000+ passing attempts:
    https://www.thephins.com/threads/how-much-of-a-diva-was-landry.93018/page-12#post-3077291

    The methodology I describe there is about as good as I think you'll find for any purely statistical approach (and note the qualifiers in that post and thread). So when you adjust, you don't see Brady at or near the very top (Steve Young is statistically the best, at least measured by efficiency), but he's still top 15 all time!

    I didn't post the z-scores there though, which directly answers your question. Brady's career defense adjusted z-score is 1.0985, which first of all is positive (that shows he's added to win%) and second puts him on average in the top 14 percentile EVERY year. So yeah he adds a lot to win percentage relative to an average QB (z-score = zero).

    btw.. for comparison Steve Young has a career defense adjusted z-score of 1.905.

    From the outset it's been an anonymous poll so that they could speak freely (stated explicitly here):
    https://abcnews.go.com/Sports/2015-nfl-qb-tier-rankings/story?id=32652348
     
    Last edited: Aug 18, 2018
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  30. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Absolutely CAN
     
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  31. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    If that's not what you believe, you should pay more attention to how you come across in these conversations.
     
  32. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    If you want to give me an example where I came across like I judge 17 by W’s and L’s, I’ll gladly try to see it from another perspective.

    I don’t judge individual players that way
     
  33. Irishman

    Irishman Well-Known Member

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    I know that in statistics you can take a running average over a small portion of the data, and you can change the location of that running average on the data (I've seen that in Excels graphing options).

    What would Tannehill's performance look like if you took a 3 game running average for his 2016 season for games 1-3, 2-4, 3-5 etc. up to his last game. Would this approach be meaningful if it was compared to his W-L record over the same games?
     
  34. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Well.. the raw data (where you look at combined, not averaged, passer rating for every 3-game window) is:

    1-3: 88.81
    2-4: 90.58
    3-5: 81.3
    4-6: 81.64
    5-7: 88.03
    6-8: 94.49
    7-9: 104.52
    8-10: 100
    9-11: 114.63
    10-12: 91.15
    11-13: 101.44

    I guess if you wanted to do a correlation, you'd have to correlate to win probability. So if you won 1 out of 3 games it would be 1/3, etc... The correlation is 0.788 which is larger than if you look at correlation on a game by game basis, which is 0.706.
     
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  35. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I disagree. Look at the pats win% when Brady has an 85 or lower rating.
     
  36. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Lots of methodological problems there though. First you'd rather look at correlation to win% which takes into account every pair of data points (each passer rating + outcome). Thresholding like that dichotomizes the data into two groups and you lose all distinction as to how much below or how much above 85 something was. Second, you'd want to adjust the threshold for each year since things change across era. Third, that threshold won't take into account the effect of the defense. And finally you need to weight everything by number of attempts. You get all that with the method I used.

    Only question is how many added wins is ~1 z-score. It's about 2 extra wins if you ignore the effect of backup QB's and it goes down to 1.44 wins if you include them (you don't get a win sometimes without the backup QB coming in). So that's on average what Brady is adding to NE.. something around 1.5-2 wins per season above average. Considering they tend to win 12 a year = 4 above average, that shows he's maybe responsible for almost half of that.

    But as said before, it's not really a "QB rating", but instead a "QB-led offense" rating which includes the effect of the coach so the true contribution of Brady will be less than that (can't estimate that though!).
     
  37. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    That's awesome- good luck with everything. I see your name a lot more often this season outside this site, so if you keep it up larger offers will emerge. There's a lot of timing and a lot of luck involved, but as long as you're doing the in-depth detailing someone will notice from a major publication eventually. It's great that you're already earning a full time income though from it and getting to enjoy your passion!

    And remember, if you need any advice on anything digital, you have my email address and I'm here for you. A huge part of working in the media or anything digital marketing is having the contacts, so keep building your Rolodex and getting to know folks. It's crazy how conversations or recommendation come back around years later. For instance, I had a potential client call me from Australia yesterday based on a recommendation of someone I had a 15 minute conversation with in an airport in like 2009 during a layover. You just never know when an old acquaintance can open doors for you.

    So just keep doing what you're doing, stay humble and eager to learn, and eventually you'll become that household name. I have faith in you!
     
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  38. Watching a Gase-Tannehill directed offense is like having testicular torsion.

    Watching Raekwon McMillan attempt to run is like having my testicles unwound by someone who doesn't know the difference between clockwise or counter-clockwise.

    Watching a Matt Burke deploy his defensive strategic intent is like having a person who is mean spirited and instead of unwinding my testicles correctly, decides to sneak in and use them as a pull-up bar to see if they are load-bearing.

    My only hope for a "sweet release" this year is the fact that the OL finally looks relatively good and our RB stable is stout.
     
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  39. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    What's the average win percent when a QB throws an 85 or lower rating?

    What is the Patriots record when Brady throws for 85 or lower?
     
  40. Irishman

    Irishman Well-Known Member

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    Thank you for this information. I see steady improvement from 4-6 thru 7-9 and relatively high level performance from 7-9 thru 11-13.
     
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