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Gailey on Tua

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Finatik, Nov 11, 2020.

  1. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    One of the big questions about Tua Tagovailoa coming into this year’s draft was whether the hip injury he suffered at Alabama last year would lead to a change in his effectiveness as a quarterback.

    The Dolphins bet that it wouldn’t when they made his the fifth overall pick of the draft and offensive coordinator Chan Gailey said on Tuesday that he sees the same quarterback who impressed as a member of the Crimson Tide.

    “It looks like it to me,” Gailey said, via Joe Schad of the Palm Beach Post. “I can’t see a real difference. So physically is the one thing that you had the concern about and I think he kind of relieved all our thoughts about that the other night.”

    Tagovailoa was 20-for-28 for 248 yards and two touchdowns in last Sunday’s 34-31 win over the Cardinals. Gailey pointed to his “tremendous feel for the game” as the reason he’s able to “throw the ball in some spots that other people might not” and one imagines the Dolphins will lean more on that skill as Tagovailoa grows accustomed to the starting role.
     
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  2. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    I'd even turn that around. One of the big questions was why we hired Chan Gailey! A great QB can make even a mediocre OC look good. Best example is Gase with Manning, but Tua with Gailey might end up being another example.
     
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  3. Bumrush

    Bumrush Stable Genius Club Member

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    You're not accounting for how the offense looked pre Tua. Gailey has been a slam dunk hire. Even with Fitz we were scoring at a pace, gaining first downs and controlling the clock at levels we haven't seen in a very long time.
     
  4. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    We scored an average of 26.7 points per game pre-Tua. The league average is 25.3. That's only marginally above average. Here, take a look at Gailey's history:
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/coaches/GailCh0.htm

    Mediocre overall, but clearly trending downwards over his career in terms of offensive points scored. Watch how those rankings suddenly vault up with Tua (a prediction I'm making) and you'll see what I'm talking about.
     
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  5. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I'm not sure about that- Preston Williams was a big piece of this offense and we traded away Ford. Unless the WR coming off suspension is legitimate, we might have some bumps in the road over the next couple of weeks. Or Grant may step up and surprise us (would be more Tua and Gailey than Grant himself).

    The way I see it, Parker is getting smothered as our WR1 and Gisecki is getting safety help being covered as well, so it's really about that WR3 to make this offense work at really high levels. Williams is such an ideal fit for that and he's really going to be missed, but let's see how we scheme around him being out.
     
  6. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    Hes been hit or miss for me personally. He has a tendency to occasionally delve into very questionable play calls at inopportune moments.

    I love a few of his play designs but I've also been equally unimpressed with other choices.
     
  7. Not So Fast

    Not So Fast Well-Known Member

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    Gaily has been okay for the most part, but there have been some weird calls on his part. Like in this past game, he called a run play on the last possession of the half with no timeouts remaining forcing Tua to spike the ball to stop the clock. Sanders still made a 56-yard field goal, but I think a pass play to pick up more yardage and go out of bounds for an easier kick would have been the smarter play. At worst, Tua could just throw the ball away (properly) and still have a 54-yard try instead of a 56-yard try.
     
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  8. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    1.4 points over average is pretty damn good for this year. 25.3 is in a year were the league average is at its highest its every been. The average 2011 - 2019 is about 22.5 points. So he's beating the best average in history. Geez, not sure what more you can ask for. One more field goal and they would be in top 10 of scoring. And top 3 in scoring differential. Which means that when you're ahead you run the ball more not trying to push it up the field.
     
    Last edited: Nov 11, 2020
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  9. Pandarilla

    Pandarilla Purist Emeritus

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    Thought he called that for better positioning and maybe an easier kick...
     
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  10. Bumrush

    Bumrush Stable Genius Club Member

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    I think they were just trying to position Sanders for the kick and have ZERO problems with that call. I also think they felt they could catch them off guard and make the kick a bit easier for him.
     
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  11. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    I dont mind the reasoning behind the call which is to center the ball before its kicked to prevent it possibly hooking too far.

    That said from 56 yards I'm actually less concerned with putting the ball in the center than I am picking up a few more yards. I guess the idea is you hope the run also picks up 2-3 extra but I actually think we lost yardage on the play.

    I've had more issues with some of his redzone calls, though they have been better lately, and that pitch to Howard. I have no idea how he thought that would be anything but a loss.

    Yeah they arent expecting Howard to take it outside but hes also slower than I am seemingly and any NFL defender is shaking off that initial deception and catching him in PLENTY of time.
     
  12. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    1.4 points is not remarkable. The standard deviation in points per game this year is 4.34 so 1.4/4.34 = 0.32 z-score which isn't much, and is consistent with average. You're right though that one more FG would make it around 1 z-score, which is worth something, but he doesn't have that extra FG. And it doesn't matter how this year compares to previous years as it's quite clear this year is an anomaly with COVID, so you have to keep the comparisons to 2020 ppg.
     
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  13. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    So basically your complaining that Chan's system didn't score us one more field goal this year.

    And this years scoring is relevant. His system has been able to beat the best scoring average ever. The majority of the league hasn't done that.
     
  14. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    ?? First of all it's one more FG per game this year. And second of all 25 out of 32 teams are beating your 22.5 ppg:
    https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/points-per-game

    So if you think being in the top 25 is something special (i.e., being below average is special), then sure compare to previous years. No, this year is an anomaly and you should not be comparing ppg this year to previous years without adjusting.
     
  15. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    It's a good thing you weren't the one kicking it then! When your kicker is perfect on the year, you generally put the ball exactly where he wants you to put the ball.
     
  16. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    No, only half the league hasn't done that. Hence the term "average".
     
  17. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    Well to be fair we dont know he would have missed it from the left or right hash lol

    Alls well that ends well though in this case. We got the three points.
     
  18. ExplosionsInDaSky

    ExplosionsInDaSky Well-Known Member

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    I think Gailey/Tua is a great pairing for the time being. All of this points upwards for Tua's development. Ten years from now, he's going to fondly remember learning from coaches like Gailey and player coaches like Fitz. Hell, it could eventually be something we are all talking about when the day comes where we are all looking back on Tuas career and reminiscing about the glory days of the 2020's.
    Back to Gailey, he is an older coach at this point. I remember some people were concerned about that? Back in the day it wasn't uncommon to see 65-70 year old coaches, but these days, they are a lot younger for some reason. Still, Gailey having the mileage and experience that he has is definitely going to help a player like Tua. Tua is a humble young man from everything I have seen of him. He's most likely more than respectful and willing to soak up any knowledge he can gain right now. It's a great pairing for the time being.
     
  19. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I looked at total points for. Just adding 3 points get's the Dolphins to the top 10. So were 3 points out from top 10 in a high scoring year. So yeah that is something special.

    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2020/index.htm

    You look at PPG. PPG average if you don't account for strength of schedule is suspect IMO. Neither one means doodlysquat. And it doesn't take into account points scored by just the offense. But that doesn't take into account going conservative with a lead or at the end of a game. Stats can be sliced and diced to however the slicer wants them to be presented. I had a discussion about 6 sigma charts today and what a pile of crap it is. Our process is so tight and 3simga so far away from the specification limits that when one point is "out of control" the QE wanted me to take a look at it. WHY. Avg. is .04mm. It's .015mm out of the control limits but 4mm away from the spec limit. Waste of time. I deal with a bunch of stat heads that don't understand it's just theoretical sometimes and in the real world I'm not spending my time on that. Had a huge discussion on it with a Phd in Stats. He couldn't actually run anything on the floor and make a profit he's so stuck in analysis paralysis.

    But I do like what you do. I like the thoroughness of it in comparing previous years since the games so different and trying to make it apple to apples. But one field goal to be in the top ten of scoring is just like that .02mm IMO.
     
  20. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    We're talking about points scored pre-Tua. You're looking at stats WITH Tua there. We were ranked around average pre-Tua. And you need to look at points per game, not total points since not all teams played the same number of games.

    Points per game is correlated with win% at 0.7515 across NFL history, so there's no good argument to dismiss such a stat without adjusting for anything you can think of that might matter. Also, given the small sample size here, "adjusting" for the things you mention would likely introduce more error into the estimates than increase overall predictive power.

    As far as slicing and dicing stats any way you want, sure you can do that, but you can't convince experts of anything and everything you want through sliced and diced stats. You'll have to do the analysis right, or at least close enough to right, to convince experts your result is valid.

    People have different abilities. Having a PhD on its own doesn't tell you much. Most statistics PhD's can apply known statistical methodologies, but once you point out the assumptions in some statistical test don't apply in a particular case, the great majority can't modify the math to develop a more appropriate test.

    One FG per game, basically 3 TD's if you're talking about pre-Tua. This isn't that easy given how far up/down the rankings you'd go if you could do that.
     
  21. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Your league average stat is extremely misleading. Of the 32 teams in the league, only 9 other teams scored more point per game on average. That means we were and still are out scoring the other 22 remaining teams.
     
  22. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    ?? There were 14 teams that scored more than the pre-Tua average of 26.7:
    https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/points-per-game

    Where are you getting this information from anyway? You should post a link so we can see if the stats in the link are the problem or it's your interpretation.
     
  23. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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  24. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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  25. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    You need to re-sort. There are only 9 teams scoring more points per game than us...and technically, Tampa Bay has the same points per game average than us.
     
  26. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    ???????????

    Dude.. please this is embarrassing (from your own link.. give it time to load):
    [​IMG]

    There are 14 teams above 26.7. You are looking at where Miami is TODAY after Tua started 2 games. The entire discussion, from the post you quoted on downwards, was about where we were pre-Tua. OK?

    14 teams above pre-Tua Dolphins. Gailey didn't do anything special on offense pre-Tua.
     
  27. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Pre Tua?? We were talking about Gailey's offense and also Tua. Why did Pre Tua get added as a qualifier? I must have missed something. But I didn't notice that other teams did play nine games so those of use playing only 8 games that means if I take their last game played out - our total points scored looks even better. Thanks for pointing that out.
     
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  28. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    The entire debate with me happened after Bumrush said in post #3 that I'm not considering how good Gailey was pre-Tua. That's when I responded in post #4 that Gailey wasn't so special pre-Tua. All this debate stemmed directly from that, and TDK quoted my post #4. The pre-Tua qualifier was added at the outset and continued throughout.
     
  29. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    DUDE!!!! You're embarrassing! Are you forgetting Miami's 28-17 DESTRUCTION of the Rams...in which the DEFENSE scored 1 touchdown, special teams scored another and the DEFENSE set the offense up for a 1 yard touchdown run? Tua in his debut was 8 of 12 fr 98 yards and 1 touchdown...ONE!!!!!!!! Are we forgetting this? Are we?

    In his NFL debut, Tua threw for 1 touchdown, handed the ball of for another off of a defensive turnover and return and was the beneficiary of a defensive touchdown AND Jakeem Grant's punt return for a touchdown, so please...don't go selling any snake oil that Miami's marginal point increase has anything to do with Tua.

    Now granted, Tua and the offense were responsible for all 34 points scored against the Cardinals, but then again so was Fitzpatrick in his two 30+ point wins against the Jaguars (31 points), the 49ers (43 points).

    Good God Almighty, stat sheets are useful but criminey, you actually have to KNOW the game brad. Tua has played well, and I expect him to keep playing well but HE is not the reason for that point increase.
     
  30. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Dude.. just admit you were wrong with the stats you quoted. Don't try and deflect and not take ownership. People make errors. So be it, even embarrassing ones like yours. Just own it and be done with it. There are 14 teams above pre-Tua ppg, and nothing you just said changes that.

    Also.. note that you're talking to yourself there. I never claimed Tua was responsible for all points scored. All that can be adjusted for at the end. Fact is you were wrong about pre-Tua ppg.
     
  31. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    You're right...just admit YOU were wrong as well. Can you do that?
     
  32. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    About what?
     
  33. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Didn't the Dolphins have a scoop and score against the Cardinals? The offense didn't score all the points...just almost all of them.
     
  34. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    About Tua being the reason our team has scored a marginally higher amount of points than pre-Tua. I already spelled it out for you.
     
  35. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Van Ginkel, scoop and score against the Rams
    Lawson scoop and score against the Cardinals

    But no, TUA scored all of those points, not the defense.
     
  36. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    I never said that. Check out what I said in posts #2 and #4:
    See how I phrased that? In post #2 I said Gailey + Tua might end up being an example. In post #4 I said the vault up the rankings is a prediction I'm making. Nowhere did I say what you claimed.

    Now.. if you'll once again admit you made an error in accusing me of something I didn't say we can move on.
     
  37. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Yes...you did! You said...

    Bumrush replied...

    To which you replied...

    You implied that prior to Tua starting, we were ONLY scoring 26.7 points per game and since Tua started, we're now scoring 27.8 points per game ergo, HE is the reason for the higher points per game.

    This is the problem when you use nothing but stats and not the entire game itself. In fact, take away the defensive and special teams scores, Miami loses to the Rams 17-14...and we lose to the Cardinals 31-27.

    Now what do your stats sheets say?
     
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  38. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    The second part of that sentence I never said nor implied (you added that in). I used the 26.7 ppg (and a link to other Gailey stats) to point out Gailey wasn't special pre-Tua. That doesn't imply all the points with-Tua were from Tua. Note that I never used current ppg with Tua to make the argument, even going to so far as to explicitly say it's a prediction.

    I'm quite careful in my language TDK. I never said nor implied what you claimed I did.
     
  39. Puka-head

    Puka-head My2nd Fav team:___vs Jets Club Member

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    Slightly left of center
    :jt0323:
     
  40. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

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