For this discussion, I'm assuming this season continues down it's disastrous course and ends up being a losing season. Similar to the type of terrible performance we experienced in 2007. First let's talk about the 2008 turnaround and examine the components that allowed our 1-15 to 11-5 transformation to happen - New leadership - Obviously we don't feel quite so warm and tingly about them now, but I think we can all agree the coaching and front office was much improved from Cam Cameron and company. QB - Chad Pennington fell into our laps. His leadership and play was integral. Schedule - Playing the 4th place teams and NFC West made our schedule one of the easiest in years. The Wild Cat - Took the league by surprise. Now let's forecast out what we think and what we know will be coming in 2012 - New leadership - I thought Tony Sparano was all but guaranteed to be fired after last season. I was wrong. But barring a miraculous turnaround after an 0-4 start I have a hard time picturing him keeping his job. Who might replace him? I think Ross will look to make a big splash with a big name coaching candidate - Cowher? Gruden? Fisher? I think anyone of these guys could be capable of engineering a quick turnaround. Will we still have Ireland as GM, or someone else? QB - If we continue to ignore the QB position as we have in the past with bargain shopping in the draft or sifting through the dregs of FA, we'll be just as awful as we are this year; however, I believe whoever is GM of this team will finally make QB a priority and draft one early. Will we be in a position to take Luck? If so will he be as good as advertised? Can a rookie QB engineer a turnaround? Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco both did it in 2008. And as I've stated in other threads, I think the current rules favoring the passing game and protecting the QB make the transition from college to the NFL much easier on quarterbacks. Schedule - If the source I pulled this from (http://www.johnnyroadtrip.com/schedules/nfl_future_afce.htm) is correct, we will once again be playing NFC West. With the 49ers looking improved and even Seattle not looking so awful as of late, this division might not be the pushover it always has been in 2012. But I think it's safe to assume at least 2 of the teams in that division will be shockingly awful. We also have the AFC South to play. Indianapolis will have Peyton back and we never beat the Texans. Tennessee looks damn good so far. Jags will most likely continue to suck wind. Wildcat - Will probably be nonexistent by then. If we use it, it won't surprise anyone. Another big factor - As was also the case in 2008, I think our defense could prove in 2012 to not be as bad as it looks this year. We've seen how much an awful offense can hinder a defense. Even the Ravens elite defenses of the early 2000's were made to look vulnerable in years where the Kyle Boller led offense was putrid. If we can improve the offense with better QB play, our defense will look better even if no improvements are made. And a healthy Vontae Davis and a safety or 2 would do wonders for our D. If Wake keeps it up, we have the pass rush. Final Thoughts: We see the potential for many similar factors to once again present themselves for a turnaround in 2012. The most important aspects will be choosing the right coach and the right QB. With some help from the schedule it could happen again. But do we want it? Many predicted after the failed playoff campaign in 2008 that the fast turnaround actually hurt us and they might have been right. Our team still had a lot of holes, covered by the band-aid of the WildCat. And once Pennington was gone, it all went to hell. The 2009 and 2010 teams were unable to compensate for weak to mediocre QB play and other problems on offense. And in 2011 it's all falling apart. I think we only want another drastic turnaround if we see the type of team that looks like they can have sustained success. A good young QB with a solid defense and great coaching.
When you're 0-4 it's never too early to start thinking about next year. With 1,000 suck for luck threads, I think most on this board are ready to talk about next year.
It would take something like divine intervention to get this season turner around.If this year continues as it has how much of it is kept and how much is blown up?
I think that chase after the quick fix is one of this fanbases problems..If we do put a new FO, Coach and QB in place I could give rats *** about a quick turnaround, its about allowing them the space to make the adjustments to this franchise and its culture..basically I will not be concerned about competing for championships next year, but more concerned with finding the right GM, Coach, and QB that reflect a long term approach.
I agree with your line of thinking entirely. But I don't think this is the 2007 Miami Dolphins we're looking at. Parcells and his puppet regime have shored up a lot of weaknesses and built a decent foundation. The right coach, QB, tight end, and a couple safeties and I think we have a team that cannot only engineer a quick turnaround but sustain success. We shouldn't fear success next season just because of what happened in 2008.
I'm not a "Doom & Gloom" Phan for the talent on this team. On O, we are gonna have to sign, re-sign, and draft a QB. We need a 2nd TE, and Clay may be the answer. The right side of the OL is a problem but, Murtha played well before injury, and Carey, Jerry or Garner may work out at RG. We are not horrible here. On D, Clemons was at FS on last year's #3 D, #1 on PFF, before the last game, and we just may see what we were all looking for starting on MNF. Anyone here who thought, in their wildest dreams, we were the #32 D in the NFL?
Honestly I dont think this team is too tough a turn around. Especially on offense. I think a young QB can win with this team if we simply keep DT healthy at halfback and perhaps add a consistent #2 threat at receiver. Not the Hartline here eight games gone eight games. Also I don't think the defense is as bad as the statistics show. A lot of the points they have allowed have been off turnovers or field goals (minus the fourth quarter of the Patriot loss). Better coaching is the main thing this team needs.
This post is all very well thought out and organized, but there is one thing that could throw a monkey into your plans or suspected plans for this team...could the new regime, whomever it be, throw out the old and start anew ?? * If say a Fisher comes along, could we see two new safeties, a couple of new LBers and losing a couple of NTs since he is more of a cover 2/4-3 guy? How would that affect our ability to turn things around? * I'm not convinced we don't have enough talent in most positions now, but a new guy will want his guys, his type of guys, his style and that could change everything. We could go from being heavily sprinkled with Parcells type talent to sparsely talented with lots of younger guys. * We all assume there will be a new QB, but who is that going to be ?? Will the new regime really go for a first round QB or not ?? Gruden, for all his love affair with QBs, hardly ever looks at young guys, he always seems to want retreads...Could Henne end up back here with Gruden figuring he can get something out of Henne that hasn't come out yet ?? * NFC West looks a bit tougher than it has in the past. Next year, Kolb will have settled into Arizona, the 49ers look to be on their way to respectability with the guy that Ross botched this season with, and Pete Carroll will have to show something by next season in Seattle to keep his job, this time around...Who really knows about KC...they are struggling now, but there is a lot of talent there. * Lets not forget that despite the dismal start to this year, we do have 12 more games to play...what happens if we go on a 5 game run and end up 5-11...our chances to get Luck-y get slimmer and slimmer ?? It's happened before... I just think that predicting what next year could look like is a bit premature right now. When this season ends and when/if there is a new regime in place, that would be a much better time to worry about next season...IMVHO... We can't put the cart before the horse yet on this season...
No matter who the coach is next year, I don't see another season like the Dolphins had in 2008. The new regime will have a number of areas to rebuild before the Dolphins will become a playoff contender. On defense, not only do the safeties need to be replaced, but also Sean Smith needs to be replaced as one of the starting CB's. Both Misi and Burnett need to be replaced at the starting LB position. Depending on what happens in free agency, there is a good chance Soliai and Langford may leave, which will mean replacing them on the defensive line. With Odrick looking like a bust and no other player on the defensive line stepping up this year, the new regime may need to overhaul the entire defensive line over the next few years. On offense, the new QB will probably be whomever the Dolphins select in the first round. I think the new regime will use next year to get this young QB as much experience as they can. On the offensive line, Long and Pouncey look like keepers, but the other three offensive line starters definitely need to be replaced ASAP. The TE position needs to be upgraded and I don't see Bush remaining on the team next year with his current contract which pays him five million dollars. He isn't worth this type of money. So if Thomas and Clay can stay healthy and contribute, they are the only running backs I see being here next year. The new GM will need to add additional running backs to the team. The wide receivers we have now are adequate, but not great. Adding another deep threat would certainly improve this unit. I am not sold on Gates, who has only one catch so far this season and has looked only mediocre on kick returns. The overall depth on the Dolphins is very weak. When a starter goes down, there really isn't a quality back up who can step in and take over. I see the Dolphins improving next year with a new regime but I certainly don't see a turn around similar to 2008. I think it is more realistic the Dolphins might win 6-7 games in 2012. There are a lot of weaknesses on the present Dolphins and it is going to take the new regime at least three years to turn this organization around. I can easily see the Dolphins finishing in last place in the AFC East for the next two to three years, before they finally start putting the right pieces in place. The problems with the Dolphins now is far more than coaching. There is a severe lack of talent on the roster and it will take more then one off season to fix all the problems on this team.
The 08 squad flat out overachieved SB, the 2011 squad, so far, has massively underachieved, if guys simply played up to their base talent levels things will turn around quickly, if not then Sparano will have to go. Thing is we are only 4 games into the yr, there are months and months left of football games to be played, we do not know if they can turn it around, or not, despite people saying we will not, they simply are stating opinions not facts.
One thing that always gets overlooked from 2008 was the insanely low amount of turnovers we had that year. We had a record-tying season for least turnovers. That also enhanced the overall flukiness of our season. That's one thing I really enjoyed about 2008. I was confident stupid, deflating mistakes would not happen and they didn't. Not the case in the Henne era. Guy just has an almost uncanny ability to turn the ball over which kills the defense.
Those who said that the lockout and short preseason would hurt us because of the number of new starters were prophetic. Add to that a dumb head coach who ran a loose ship, and the team came out totally unprepared for the start of the season. Add injuries, bad personnel decisions, and penny pinching in free agency to the lingering effects of the Harbaugh circus on player morale; throw in Marshall's nutcase confession, dingbat antics and drops, and the result is this season; the perfect storm of suckhood. There will be no lockout next season. All of these factors except the injuries can be addressed, one by one. If we can see it all, so can the people who do this for a living, and then some. We do have a base, albeit one still under construction. It can't all be addressed in one postseason, but we can start seeing tangible results in the team's return to respectability. Ross has to have learned as an owner from the Parcells disaster. --- I am here: http://maps.google.com/maps?ll=25.743788,-80.225385
Sparano probably should have been fired, yeah. Maybe Harbaugh would have come if Ross didn't make us look like amateurs. We all know that part. I think Ireland is staying. To be honest, he did very well in his first draft with final authority. Pouncy, Thomas.....if he stays, just make the guy take sensitivity training or something. That Dez Bryant situation............ I think these problems will finally be over. The fans are speaking loud and clear this season. All of Miami has heard it. The media from radio broadcasters to newspaper journalists, right on up to Stephen Ross. We want, we need, a franchise QB. They hear it, they will get us a QB in the 1st round, I am sure of it. Our defense has some issues, yup. Our secondary makes my eyes hurt sometimes, but the defense is not the reason we are losing games. It's the anemic offense. I think our defense gets patched up for next year and we should be OK.
Bump. Way back in October I penned this thread about the potential similarities the 2008 season will share or could potentially share with our upcoming 2012 campaign. With all the Manning speculation, I think it's worth pointing out that Peyton Manning could potentially make for another similarity to 2008 filling the Chad Pennington role. Discarded veteran QB who lands in our laps. Difference being there will probably be much more competition for Peyton's services than Chad's and he has the potential to be a far superior QB to Pennington IF healthy. I only bring this up as another way to look at Peyton Manning. I think we've been taking a gloom and doom approach of he could be another Culpepper, etc. He could also be another Chad Pennington. In which case I'd hope that's where the similarities would end and the success included some playoff wins and lasts longer than just 1 season.
I never really thought about it that way, but thats a good way to look at it IMO. Atleast at the possibility of 2008 part deux.... what else do we have to grasp as of lately? lol... and tbh.... even if it IS just ONE good season... i'd still be happy. Also we should hope that if it is 2008 part deux, it doesnt end the same way ( that would imply mannings neck falls off or just kinda wriggles around like a broken slinky) edit: optimism. it's a good thing
I agree that what we want is a long-term solution. I don't really see much benefit to bringing in a Manning when even if he has a miracle recovery we're probably looking at a one and done, 2008 scenario. The only way I even consider Manning is as an after-thought, if we don't get or don't want Flynn. Then, as long as we get our young QB, we could consider Manning just as a short-term upgrade to Moore. But securing the long-term QB is the priority. I don't want one of those get Manning and add pieces around him years.
I think a big turnaround in 2012 is first of all made possible by the change in coaching and new direction under Joe Philbin. That's always a wildcard, and it was a wildcard this team needed. I don't know if Peyton Manning is the guy to lead the turnaround but Matt Flynn could be. He was a winner in college, learned from the best QB I've seen in a quite a while playing for a championship team, and he'd be playing in a familiar system under a coach that knows best what he can and can't do.
Thanks, Aqua. It's funny I think the first response to this thread was something along the lines of "too soon." I have a habit of being too early with threads sometime.
Well, either that or Stephen Ross wanting to make a celebrity splash at the QB position trumps whatever thoughts Ireland / Philbin have on Flynn if they believe him to be the better quarterback. The fan in me wants Manning. But only if we mitigate the risk by still drafting a QB high, hopefully with our first round pick. That being said, if people who get payed to make football decisions believe Flynn to be the better option and we go with Peyton because of what Ross knows he will mean to ticket sales short term, I guess that would be a bad thing.
we have many of the 'building blocks' to be successful. it's a no-brainer, but our success or failure will come down to 2 things: talent acquisition and coaching. talent acquisition: - most of our UFAs are not significant -- but they do play roles that must be addressed (particularly along the DL). - improvement along the OL (need a minimum of 1 for the R side), assuming Jerry can step in at the 'other' position. Could go with Ts 2-4 in the draft in rd 1, which would be a hedge against Long (just in case). - improvement at S ... could go with Barron early (even if he is considered a SS) .... otherwise, there doesn't to seem to be a S worth note until say rd 3, and no one to help us immediately at FS. - improvement at DE/OLB ... several choices to go with early that could be impact players, especially on the strong side. question is: are we going to run a 3-4 or 4-3 ... you 'could' also pick Kuechly and put Dansby outside. He could be our MLB for years to come. - improvement at WR ... 3 choices early ... otherwise, need to see where Gates is ... - improvement at TE ... 3 good choices for rd 2 ... - have not forgotten about QB ... just feel that we will sign one and not draft one ... has anyone heard anything regarding Devlin?? I know it isn't 'sexy' ... but we only need to add 1 more QB to the fold, however it works out. coaching: - new coach means new schemes ... we know it took a minimum of 4-6 games for the Offense to get it last year (granted there were no OTCs and an abbreviated TC) -- but, it will still take time on both sides of the ball this go around. - coaching makes a difference ... just look at SF (yes, they had talent) ... but do we think that 'any' other coach could have gotten he same result that Harbaugh did - not likely. - winning makes a difference ... just as important as coaching is ... so is winning -- 'buy in' only goes so far, unless it is tied to results (aka WINS) ... win early and folks go 'all in' quickly ... lose early and it gets tougher quickly ...
One of the things that concerns me about the Dolphins finding short term success by making a few good moves this off season and having the advantage of a weak schedule and maybe a new playbook is that if one of those moves isn't identifying and securing a long term solution at QB, it will become even harder to do it next season if we have moved back in the draft. Say we like Flynn but get outbid for him or somebody makes a move in the draft and takes the rookie QB we have targeted, what then? Is it then time to target Manning since his fate probably wont be determined until after the draft. (I'm guess he will hold out as long as possible for rehab purposes). Do we want Manning if we missed on everyone else we had sighted or are we better off toughing it out with Matt Moore as our starter. Is Ross going to axe Philbin if he brings in a successful stopgap QB that only lasts a season or two and then we find ourselves back to where we have been stuck for so many years. Looking to find that QB and picking from the middle of the pack somewhere or taking chances by giving up draft picks to sign other teams B/U's who happened to have a couple of good games. I find the whole situation to be scary. I am on pins and needles waiting to see what Ireland and Philbin come up with. I'm not drinking any Kool-Aide yet (been burned too many times) but I will say I do get a good feeling about Philbin so far. I really do not get the impression that he is going to simply blow up the roster. I think he sees talent on the team and he and his people are hard at work thinking up ways to maximize what they already have here. I also like his K.I.S.S. (keep it simple stupid) type thinking. I think that philosophy is going to go a long way toward making the transition to a new coaching staff easier on the players. I really hope this is a new dawn of football for us. I am so beat down and depressed from being a fan of a franchise that constantly lets me down year after year.
That may not be the case. Philbin may want to start fresh with a qb he hasn't worked with before. You know, develop a new qb for the season.
I know alot of people wanna praise the 08 turn around by TS and Miami and say how bad the 07 squad was but consider the injuries listed below, that doesnt include Chambers who was traded by the deadline ( although a case can be made as a self inflicted move) and Ricky was suspended then suffered the muscle tear against the steelers. Zach Thomas barely played and then they fianally put him on the IR. Add to that the next year the players on IR that returned and like CK mentioned the unknown of a new coach and the wildcat early on, then toss in a very weak schedule and you get this great turn around. Miami lost 6 games by 3 points or less in 2007. No doubt better talent was added in 08, but the 07 team was not assembled as poorly as the record indicated. I just dont see the same thing here in 11/12. If for some reason we have a great turn around it wont ressemble the 07/08 events at all. We all know injuries are part of the game but no team can survive losing that many starters and not have a drop off, concidering the team was only 6-10 the year before what were we expecting? Reserve Lists for 2007 37 Yeremiah Bell SS (IR) 23 Ronnie Brown RB (IR) 52 Channing Crowder OLB (IR) -- Marion Dukes OT (Left Squad) 21 André Goodman CB (IR) 10 Trent Green QB (IR) 24 Renaldo Hill FS (IR) 77 Drew Mormino G/C (IR) 95 Chase Page DE/DT (IR) 78 Mike Rosenthal OT (IR) 54 Zach Thomas ILB (IR) 26 Travares Tillman FS (IR) 67 Joe Toledo G/T (IR) 34 Ricky Williams RB (IR) 44 Cameron Worrell SS (IR) 53 Abraham Wright
Agree with everything except the bolded part. I see Mannings future being decided very soon after / if he's released. If not us, there will be some team willing to roll the dice and assume his rehab proceeds on schedule to play in 2012. Manning is an honorable guy but if there's a team willing to take a chance on him, he's not going to say, "No, let's hold up and wait and see if I get better." Plus if he's released he's going to want to have access to a team facility to rehab in I'm guessing.
