Forecasting the 2012 Dolphins Defense

With the Draft now in the books and rookie mini-camp fully digested, there’s really not much action left for the offseason, save for some OTAs, until training camp gets fully underway. Sure, there might be a signing or two still left out there, Jake Scott or someone of that ilk, could be brought in, but the meat and potatoes portion of the offseason is completed. One thing that I was really interested in seeing, other than how Miami would handle the quarterback search, this offseason was what parts they would bring in to the defense. From what we can tell, the new defense is a “hybrid” with parts of both the 4-3 and 3-4. When you look at the major defensive players Miami brought in this offseason, in total two D-linemen – Olivier Vernon and Kheeston Randall; three linebackers – Gary Guyton, Jamaal Westerman, and Josh Kaddu; and two defensive backs – Richard Marshall and Tyrell Johnson – you see how they could all potentially fit both the 4-3 or 3-4.

This was interesting to me as it didn’t really shed much light on what style of defense Miami would run. I know Disgustipate mentioned it sounding like a 4-3 Under defense (i.e. something akin to what Nick Saban ran here in Miami in 2005-06) and what the Bengals have run under Mike Zimmer; who oversaw the defense in which Miami’s coordinator, Kevin Coyle, was the secondary coach of. That got me to research similar styles of defense, and looking at what some teams who have similar styles have run recently.

With that said, I think Miami’s 2012 defense could actually resemble what we saw on the field in 2011, at least in some schematic perspectives. I know CK also posted something similar about this recently, and it’s no secret that Kacy Rodgers, the defensive line coach, is still on staff. In fact, if you look at the defenses run by Cincinnati and Seattle, both 4-3 Under teams, you’ll see that many of the techniques look like Miami’s defense that Mike Nolan oversaw. This Seahawks blog does a pretty nice job detailing the 4-3 Under here. A buddy of mine also said, though I can’t confirm, that current Bengals Defensive Coordinator, Mike Zimmer, has some of Buddy Ryan’s schemes imbedded in the Bengals defense. The closest thing I could find to that was off a Bengals blog detailing Buddy Ryan’s defense with the 1993 Houston Oilers, which used elements of the 4-3 stack, 4-3 Under, 3-4, and 4-6 or Bear defense. If you’re a football junkie, it’s worth checking out here (I'll warn you now, this PDF is longer than my post!).

If you’ve clicked those links, or simply “Googled” a 4-3 Under defense, you’ll see that it looks pretty similar to a 3-4 defense, just with the line shifted over and both OLBs walked up, with one down in a 3-point stance playing either a 5 technique or 9 technique, depending on the side of the formation he’s on. I’m no alen1, CK, or Disgustipate, but I figured it’d be an interesting exercise to take a stab at what the Dolphins defense could look like and who would be playing where in 2012. So, my thoughts for this post are to try and offer a look at a mini-depth chart for the front seven, and who could fill certain roles.

For the most part, I think Cincinnati and Seattle bear out the most common examples of the 4-3 Under that Miami has the personnel to run, at least in my opinion. Seattle’s defense uses beefier linemen with a “Leo” end to get after the passer. In contrast, Cincinnati uses a more traditional 4-3 Under look with two aggressive ends who can rush the passer, with some good push up the middle from their outstanding 3-technique DT, Geno Atkins. I think Miami’s defense will be somewhere in the middle. Miami’s only got one lineman, Paul Soliai, that’s either at or above the weight range and style that the Seahawks run. Miami doesn’t have the amount of bodies that the Bengals have at defensive end that are long, lean, and athletic. Those are the main differences, at least from what I can see. To keep it simple, I’ll cite examples of the players the Seahawks and Bengals use to fill these roles and try and relate them to what the Dolphins’ roster looks like at present. Obviously future roster moves could potentially alter the “depth chart”.

However, based on positioning, Miami’s got some good personnel to work with to fill the following positions:

“Elephant End” – also known as a Jack LB, Leo, Open End, etc. – this is the main pass-rusher who generally plays on the weakside, in a 5, 7, or 9 technique depending on if a tight end lines up on his side of the formation. Examples: Chris Clemons, Seahawks

DT – a traditional 3-technique, this guy is usually a smaller, quicker tackle who is stout against the run but offers the ability to collapse the pocket in pass-rush. Example: Geno Atkins, Bengals.

NT – a 1-technique and the primary run stopper of the defense. Essentially, this role is akin to a traditional 3-4 nose tackle, but instead of playing head-up on the center, the NT is shifted over towards the strongside A gap. Example: Brandon Mebane, Seahawks

“Closed End” – this guy will be playing in a 5-technique off the shoulder of the right tackle, in most cases, and playing on the tight end’s side. He’s going to be a bigger guy who is stout against the run and can get after the passer. Example: Robert Geathers, Bengals

Will Linebacker – the weakside guy. He’s usually pretty athletic, a solid tackler, and offers something in coverage. Example: Thomas Howard, Bengals

Mike Linebacker – the leader of the defense. He must be a good tackler and a good communicator to get the defense properly aligned, and given the situation, must be able to take on an offensive lineman at the point of attack. Example: Rey Maualuga, Bengals

Sam Linebacker – in most cases, he’s usually a bit bigger than the Will and Mike, and is more stout against the run. Cincinnati uses Manny Lawson in this role, and he’s an interesting fit, as he’s pretty good in coverage, but doesn’t offer much in the way of getting after the quarterback the way that Seattle uses K.J. Wright, and sometimes even putting Chris Clemons over here.

I’ll leave out the secondary for now, as there’s really not a whole lot of difference in how it’s aligned in a 3-4 versus a 4-3. For the possibilities that the Dolphins have at each of these positions, I’ll list a projected starter, top backup, and a few guys to keep an eye on that could be pressed into these positions if needed and/or young guys that are probably long-shots to make the roster but could be interesting to keep tabs on in the preseason as they could be practice squad candidates.

For simplicity’s sake, I’ll just go in the same order as I’ve listed the positions above. So, starting out with the “Jack” or Elephant, Leo, Open End, etc. I think this position has Cameron Wake’s name on it. He is the Dolphins best pass-rusher, and he’s surprisingly good against the run. I think if Kevin Coyle was paying attention, the way the Baltimore Ravens used Terrell Suggs is how I would use Cameron Wake. He can play in a 3-point stance, he can stand up on the line, you can move him to either side of the formation. He was just on with Jesse Agler talking about his extension and said that he’s focused on “being the best outside linebacker slash defensive end” he can be. I think that spells hybrid. From what I’ve seen of Olivier Vernon, which isn’t much, I think he could also project to this position. He’s very strong at the point of attack, and to me, looked more athletic than either Jamaal Westerman or Koa Misi have. They could have another role in mind for Vernon, which I’ll touch on later, but I think he’s got a future here and working in the nickel and dime packages. Jamaal Westerman could also get a nice look here.
Projected Starter: Cameron Wake
Top Backup: Olivier Vernon
Keep an eye on: Jamaal Westerman, Jacquies Smith, Derrick Shelby

As for DT, I think Miami’s got quite a few candidates for this spot. Given that we’ve heard on several occasions Miami wants Jared Odrick to play on the outside and reduce inside on passing downs, I won’t include him here. However, this is very similar to the position he played at during his days at Penn State, and he’s played a roles similar to this in nickel packages with the Dolphins (In this link, go to the :33 second mark. Notice the formation is a nickel package with Odrick on the outside without a Sam next to him, but the front is similar to a 4-3 Under, with Wake on the left side in a passing situation. I expect we'll see a lot of this in 2012). For my money, this role belongs to Randy Starks. He played here with the Tennessee Titans when he first got to the league. He’s played on the interior in this technique with Miami in certain packages, and is just a really good football player. For the record, I think Tony McDaniel is versatile enough to play here, and is probably the top backup at DT, NT, and Close End. I think that Kheeston Randall, the 7th round rookie from Texas, might make a good understudy to Randy Starks. Ryan Baker could also get a look here.
Projected Starter: Randy Starks
Top Backup: Jared Odrick
Keep an eye on: Tony McDaniel, Kheeston Randall, Ryan Baker

At NT, well, Miami has Paul Soliai. He’s better than Domata Peko or any of the other bodies the Bengals have thrown into the mix here, Pat Sims and Tank Johnson had been the only notable names behind Peko in recent years. I think Soliai could be as good or better than Brandon Mebane. There’s not really another huge body after Soliai on the depth chart for Miami. Tony McDaniel is the biggest probable roster-maker and he’s listed a 305lbs. Randy Starks would probably figure to play here if anything were ever to happen to big Paul. Kheeston Randall played some NT at Texas in their 3-4 alignment as well, but I’m not sure there’s really any one player Miami has that’d be as good as Paul Soliai in this role.
Projected Starter: Paul Soliai
Top Backup: Randy Starks
Keep an eye on: Tony McDaniel, Kheeston Randall

At the “Closed End” position, I think Jared Odrick is penciled in for this role. Miami keeps on talking about seeing him outside and reducing inside in nickel and sub packages. I don’t think you’d want him playing a true, weakside defensive end spot in a 4-3 defense, but the “Closed End” spot is more akin to a 3-4 DE spot, and he’s played that for Miami. Essentially, I think Odrick is the replacement for the departed Kendall Langford, who held down this spot from 2008-2011. Odrick offers you some pass-rush ability here as well, which is interesting as the Bengals used Robert Geathers at this spot on run downs and brought in Carlos Dunlap in passing situations. Red Bryant, who is bigger than both Jared Odrick or Tony McDaniel, filled this role for Seattle, so Miami’s got something in between. Odrick gives Miami more of a pass-rushing option here where as McDaniel is more of a run-stopping type.
Projected Starter: Jared Odrick
Top Backup: Tony McDaniel
Keep an eye on: Kheeston Randall, Chas Alecxih

The Will linebacker spot was one of a lot of discussion this offseason. There were rumors that Kevin Burnett had a serious issue with this knee. That turned out to be just a scope and Burnett is fine. At one point it was rumored Koa Misi could be “moving inside” and this could’ve been a likely destination for him. Miami brought in the likes of Phillip Wheeler, Quentin Groves, and even signed Gary Guyton. Miami drafted Josh Kaddu, and all the while, I think Kevin Burnett still has this role come opening day in Houston. Burnett should fit this role pretty nicely as he’s pretty athletic, is a solid tackler, and offers some coverage ability. Gary Guyton could also push for some playing time, but I think he might be better suited to be a backup at both the Will and Mike spots. Josh Kaddu was a bit of a curveball in my eyes during the draft, but he’s built pretty similarly to Burnett, is athletic and by most accounts, is known as a run and chase defender. He offers a little bit as a blitzer, who I think could be a nice developmental project while being a force on special teams. I think he’d lop someone like Jason Trusnik off the roster if he shows well.
Projected Starter: Kevin Burnett
Top Backup: Josh Kaddu
Keep an eye on: Gary Guyton, Jason Trusnik, Austin Spitler

Much like the Will spot, there were some rumblings about the Mike linebacker spot as well. Jeff Ireland spouted off about Karlos Dansby having success there. A lot of posters on the board were hot and heavy for Luke Kuechly, who went one pick after Miami drafted Ryan Tannehill. Gary Guyton, another fluid, athletic guy was signed during the offseason. I’ve got a hunch that Guyton could be the Brandon Johnson of the Dolphins. Johnson was the top backup for the Bengals at all three of their linebacker spots (again, remember Cincinnati uses their Sam differently than Seattle and how I believe Miami will) and who replaced Maualuga in nickel and dime packages. Austin Spitler is a good special teamer and is more akin to Maualuga in that he’s a physical, stuffer with some athleticism. I think Miami would be in trouble if Spitler was ever playing the Mike spot regularly, but he could be rosterable as a special teamer, and I’ve included him here as I don’t think he really fits the Will or Sam spots.
Projected Starter: Karlos Dansby
Top Backup: Gary Guyton
Keep an eye on: Austin Spitler

I really liked the Dolphins draft, but I’ll admit, the only point I really sort of got miffed about anything was at the top of the second round. There were some rumors that Miami had tried to jump in front of the Green Bay Packers for Nick Perry, so I thought they might jump at the chance to take Alabama’s Courtney Upshaw at the top of round two. But, to my dismay, they didn’t, and Upshaw went to Baltimore which is a perfect fit for him and another coup for Ozzie Newsome. So, to me, this remains the biggest question mark on defense. Koa Misi has done very well against the run in the past here, but he’s not your ideal pass-rusher. Jamaal Westerman, a free agent signing from the Jets, is a decent guy against the run, but again, like Misi, isn’t the ideal threat at pass-rusher. I think Olivier Vernon could be the long-term solution in this role. I think that’s a pretty big leap for Vernon. I think Vernon’s athletic, probably more so than Courtney Upshaw, so I can appreciate the upside. But, at this point, Upshaw’s a lot better football player, a “ball of butcher knives” as CK once wrote. It’d be great if Vernon could be that type of player in this role and add more pass-rush than Koa Misi. I think this spot could be filled via a committee and it wouldn’t surprise me if Miami keeps two of three between Misi, Vernon, and Westerman and the odd man out isn’t on the roster against Houston week one. But, for now, I’ll list them like this.
Projected Starter: Koa Misi
Top Backup: Jamaal Westerman
Keep an eye on: Olivier Vernon, Jacquies Smith

There you have it, my two-deep depth chart for the front seven is as follows:

Jack – Wake, Vernon
DT – Starks, Randall
NT – Soliai
CE – Odrick, McDaniel
Will – Burnett, Kaddu
Mike – Dansby, Guyton
Sam – Misi, Westerman

I saw alen1 type this in another thread, and one thing about the Bengals defense last year, they have a lot of guys who play specific roles. Robert Geathers is a two-down end. Carlos Dunlap was emerging as a guy who was going to replace Geathers, but ended up hurting his hamstring, but prior to that, he was a pass-rusher in sub packages. Guys like Jared Odrick and Randy Starks will likely figure into the nickel roles as interior linemen the way Cincinnati uses Geno Atkins, and how they used Pat Sims. I think Gary Guyton is a shoe-in for the Brandon Johnson role, a nickel backer who excels at special teams and can backup just about any position. I think Miami’s got some potential developmental players in Josh Kaddu and Jacquies Smith, much like how Cincinnati’s bringing along Roddrick Muckleroy and Dontay Moch.

All things considered, if my “guestimate” is correct, Miami’s defense won’t look all that dissimilar to what they had under Mike Nolan. I think if Kevin Coyle and his staff are creative, you could really see Cameron Wake do some nice things, moving around, playing either side, playing in a 3-point stance and standing up (didn’t Jason Taylor win Defensive Player of the Year in 2006 doing most of those things?). I think it maximizes roles for guys like Randy Starks, Jared Odrick, and Tony McDaniel. Whether they can step up and fill those roles remains to be seen. They also have some nice young players that you can sort of carve out niche roles for in the near future and see them as starters down the line. I think Olivier Vernon fits that bill, and you could get a lot more out of Josh Kaddu and Kheeston Randall than you will this year. But I think the parts are there. If Kevin Coyle can work his magic on this secondary, this defense has a chance to be pretty impressive in my opinion and I’m pretty excited to see what they can do. They’ll certainly get their chance to impress early against Houston. And something tells me they’ve not forgotten how they started the season last year against the Patriots. I know I haven’t, and I hope they send a message early in the season.

 

Thanks for the kind words.

You're a pretty big Oregon Ducks fan, correct? Disgustipate and I were talking about Kaddu in the Club thread. We don't get a whole lot of Oregon games out here in Cincinnati, but what are your thoughts on Kaddu? Obviously he's got some pass-rusher in his game, and he seems pretty athletic to me. Can you shed any more light on what you see in him?

I sort of envision him as learning the Kevin Burnett role, but with a bit more pass-rushing prowess to it. I think he might be a nice nickel edge rusher, as Cincinnati did run a lot of 3-3-5 lineups with Cincinnati using Thomas Howard, Brandon Johnson, and Manny Lawson. None of them were that good at pass-rushing, but I think Kaddu could fill a role like that and add some ability to get after the quarterback.

 

One thing that I found interesting today, was that Ireland said that Coyle's job is to confuse everyone until we line up. So, I expect a lot of movement, shifting, etc. from the defense. I don't think that's all that different than what we saw with Nolan's unit in the past few seasons. Ireland also said we should expect to see both a 4-man and hybrid front. We saw these last year as well, so again, I don't think it'll be all that different. The gap assignments and attacking with the front four are the biggest changes I can foresee. I think Coyle, if he's using his experience under Mike Zimmer, will have very specific roles for multiple players.

I think you could see specific roles for guys like Jared Odrick, Olivier Vernon, Josh Kaddu, and Gary Guyton in nickel and sub packages. Just looking back at the Bengals defense from last year, non-starters like Carlos Dunlap, Frostee Rucker, Jonathan Fanene, and Brandon Johnson all had roles that got them quite a few snaps in the game. Dunlap was able to develop to the point where they were just about ready to make him a 3-down starter and phase out Robert Geathers because of Geathers' lack of pass-rush ability. Then Dunlap got hurt, was rushed back too soon, and never recovered. Frostee Rucker ended up assuming a starter's role later in the season, and Jonathan Fanene played just about as many snaps as Domata Peko, a starter, down the stretch. There's certainly possibilities for guys to step up and fill some roles for Miami.

 

Kaddu seems to be the wild-card to me. MrClean, an Oregon fan, said that he thought Kaddu's best spot would be on the weakside, despite him playing Sam mostly at Oregon. I think Kaddu could be a player who could eventually replace Burnett down the line, but he could also fill a role like the one Brandon Johnson had last year in Cincinnati. Johnson was the Bengals 4th LB, but he played extensively in nickel and dime packages, he covered and he was used as a blitzer. I think Kaddu can do a good portion of those things. I just don't see him being as stout against the run to replace Misi; and Miami's now got two guys in Olivier Vernon and Jamaal Westerman who are already pretty good run-stoppers.