I don't think it's highly speculative at all. IMO it's lightly questionable at best if we're talking about him being a full time starter on the outside, but we're not; we're talking about him, like Randall Cobb, playing there no more than 15% of the time but still leading all WRs in targets (like Cobb does) and touches (like Cobb does). In fact, Cobb had 90 offensive touches last year, 26 more than the next closest player, and that's not including the return game. IMO you might be over-thinking this. Tavon doesn't have to run every route in the book to succeed 10-12% on the perimeter, and besides, much of his time out there will be in matchup advantages or simple routes meant to get the ball in his hands and let his playmaking ability do the rest. I've already posted this Greg Jennings video from 2011 vs Denver that highlights how Philbin utilizes a slot receiver who actually possess some talent, but it's obvious most of you completely disregarded it, so I'll post it again. Before dismissing Austin, I again urge you to watch this clip. After it I'll post some Tavon Austin routes from his LSU game for comparison to show how easily Tavon could be utilized by Philbin. [video=youtube;bw00cPvgodc]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bw00cPvgodc[/video] Jennings' first catch. Here's Austin doing the same: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=bd8Y-PLYi7M#t=203s Jennings' catch #2 (0:38). Austin similar: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=bd8Y-PLYi7M#t=79s Jennings' catch #3 (0:47). Austin similar: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=-dEHB--65kQ#t=66s Jennings' catch #4 (0:58). Austin similar: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=-dEHB--65kQ#t=494s Jennings' catch #5 (1:44). Austin similar: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=iGRF9Hb7IUg#t=145s Jennings' catch #6 (2:17). Austin similar: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=bd8Y-PLYi7M#t=73s Jennings' catch #7 (2:28). Austin similar: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=Sn9aH5Z7Gss#t=58s Jennings didn't need to run a full, complex route tree to post a 7 catch, 100+ yard, 1 TD game, and he did it mostly from the slot. Also keep in mind, what we see here on these plays represents maybe a sixth of Austin's current route running repertoire.
For those complaining about Austin not beating the press, here's a 7 catch, 89 yard, 1 TD game (1st game of 2011) by Jennings where 6 catches come from the outside, all with a free release. [video=youtube;ASwHvjWL0Lo]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ASwHvjWL0Lo[/video]
why would we have to change our entire philosophy for Austin. I think that's false. How many people have stopped to think that Ireland & Philbin might actually want a player like Tavon to help expand the current offense? Ireland has watched him 3 times this year so the likelihood seems strong that he already believes Tavon fits their offensive vision.
If you think Ginn & Austin share any resemblance other than speed then you should stop positing in the draft forum, or at least drop the foolish level of condescension.
Jennings 2011, week 3 (Bears): 9 catches, 119 yards. 8 catches from a free release. time split between slot & outside. [video=youtube;DuTXIiNRP-o]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DuTXIiNRP-o[/video]
I'd bet the same people who are saying Austin is too small and an injury risk etc, are the same ones who were saying last year that Russell Wilson was too short to be a good NFL QB.
Jennings 2011, Week 5. 4 catch, 82 yards, TD. All free releases (1 was a light chuck 3 or 4 yards downfield). [video=youtube;MxwaF3viHK0]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MxwaF3viHK0[/video]
If it is not his size, what is it? He isn't productive or skilled enough for you? What else is there?
Jennings 2011, week 2. 2 catch, 55 yard, game-changing TD. Again, no immediate press. One light chuck a couple yards upfield. Austin has the speed and ability to convert this into a TD as well. [video=youtube;96oNwmF5F2Q]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=96oNwmF5F2Q[/video]
Here's the thing with this. This one game is only a snap shot of what the Packers do with their wide receivers as a whole. It's very likely that the coverage played in this game dictated what routes Jennings would run. Also realize that there were probably four sight adjustments that Jennings made in that entire highlight film. I know most teams have built in sight adjustments, but I wonder if the Packers utilized option routes in their offense. An option route is something I think Tavon Austin would be very effective at.
Jennings 2011, week 6 vs Rams. 6 catch, 82 yards. All from the slot, all free releases, all stuff that Austin can do quite well. [video=youtube;7uNsZH-Z2eI]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7uNsZH-Z2eI[/video]
Tell me this awesome 15 yard Jennings TD doesn't have Tavon Austin written ALL OVER IT. Skip to the replay at 0:16. [video=youtube;_io8KhzGdZg]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_io8KhzGdZg[/video]
I'm not convinced he can run the whole route tree. I don't think you change an entire offensive philosophy for one guy...unless he's a GOAT. Again, if Philbin disagrees I will defer to him, cause I'm a Bishop in the Church of Latter Day Philbins and he is infallible.
This here is one of the questions I have about Austin. That's Jennings from one of your video clips using his body to shield the DB from the ball and showing the strength to make the catch while the DB is on him. There were at least two instances in the Maryland game that I saw where Austin had someone tight on him like this, and Austin could not come down with the ball. Here is one of the instances: Here is another: In both cases, the ball was incomplete. On the 2nd, the ball was a bit high. But you know, you're a playmaker. You have to show the catching radius to make that catch and shield that safety from the ball.
yet you never elaborate on it. You keep saying you're not convinced he can run the whole route tree despite the fact he is a good route runner and does seem intelligent, so then what is it about Tavon that makes you question his ability to run a full enough route tree to fit the offense? ... and again, why do you think we'd have to change an entire offensive philosophy for him? Either support your argument with a shred of something or just stop repeating the same superficial stuff.
His hands are bigger than 14 receivers this draft including 6'2 guys Cordarrelle Patterson, Terrance Williams, Cobi Hamilton, 6'3 Aaron Dobson, and at least half an inch bigger than Swope's...... and Tavon's bench was better than 16 receivers including the 208+ pound Terrance Williams & Da'Rick Rogers. I noticed a handful of times where Tavon made the catch in tight coverage, and we already know his drop rate at less than 5% is better than the other top receivers this draft IIRC. All receivers will occasionally let defenders disrupt a pass, but I haven't seen anything from Tavon that seems alarming in that regard. The biggest issue I see is his lack of catch radius which you just pointed out, but at least he reacts quickly, makes adjustments to throws, and can make the tough catch. The similar catch radius didn't hurt the other small receivers we've noted (Clayton & Duper, Steve Smith, Welker). http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=vjtFdbiGyfM#t=205s
Unfortunately you can't measure heart and desire. If so guys like T.O, Brady, Miles Austin and Zach Thomas all would've been drafted much higher. Ginn and Austin aren't really comparable from a skill set, ones a fast twitch guy ones a long strider. If you were speaking merely on the risk of a smaller WR please reread the first line.
One of the basic philosophies is that the WRs can play all three slots. If you add a player that can't do that then you would have to disguise your plays using some other philosophy. I thought I explained that in a pretty straight-forward way? I even layed out what I would have him do in a workout. I'm sure that they would want a player that has Austin's play making skills, but they would also want him to be able to play all three WR positions.
I don't see why Tavon would have trouble in the 10-12% of the time he'd be spending on the outside to where he'd be viewed as a liability and a player who'd prevent Philbin/Sherman from running their desired offense. I think it's the opposite, that Tavon allows them to open up the offense and create better matchup advantages around the field just as Tavon did for Bailey. If sub 5'10, 4.7 forty Bess can line up outside, I have enough confidence Austin can perform there at an equal or higher level. At least Tavon can get on top of coverage from the outside, which defenses would have to pay attention to.
Let's look at the distribution of Philbin's receivers relative to the percentage of routes they ran from the slot. 2011: Donald Driver 65.1% (361 total routes, 235 in the slot) Randall Cobb 62.1% (174 total routes, 108 in the slot) Greg Jennings 49.8% (458 total routes, 228 in the slot) 2010: Donald Driver 71.6% (483 total routes, 346 in the slot) Jordy Nelson 40.8% (316 total routes, 129 in the slot) Greg Jennings 34.2% (585 total routes, 200 in the slot) 2009: Donald Driver 76.5% (574 routes, 439 in the slot) Greg Jennings 24.7% (550 routes, 136 in the slot) Even this year, Davone Bess only ran around 71% of his routes from the slot position. So, when talking about Tavon's role in this offense, Joe Philbin does not have a history of playing a guy 88-90% of the time in the slot. With Randall Cobb going forward, I think you will see his slot percentage go from the 85% it was this year to closer to 65% with Driver retiring and Jennings leaving via free agency. Cobb will end up playing more outside as time goes along.
Exactly. West Va played Austin mainly in the slot because that's what best fit their offense. It was not because he is incapable of playing outside. They preferred to have the threat of the fly sweep reverse at their disposal and to have Austin outside and anyone else in the slot would indicate to the defense, no worry about the fly sweep reverse to Austin on this play. In one of the videos you posted, on one long completion to Bailey down the left sideline, it came off a fake on the fly sweep to Austin. That caused the safety to hesitate just enough that Bailey got behind him when the corner was expecting help over the top. I'm wondering too, everyone seems to assume that Sherman's offense, Philbin's offense, and the current Green Bay offense are all 100% the same when it comes to WR interchangeability. Philbin wants all his WR to be able to play all the various WR spots with equal ability. Is it 100% certain that Sherman is totally the same about this? Why was Hartline next to never in the slot if this is such a critical factor? Even though Green Bay apparently wanted Jennings and Cobb to be able to play outside, they played the majority of their snaps in the slot. Nelson and Jones played most of theirs outside, but Green Bay wanted them to be equally capable in the slot?
http://www.espnmilwaukee.com/common/page.php?feed=2&id=336&is_corp=1 http://onmilwaukee.com/sports/articles/packersroutetree.html?viewall=1
Here's a few examples of the Tavon Austin affect-- his presence freezing coverage to help out Bailey. [video=youtube;ci2K1xx6bmQ]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ci2K1xx6bmQ[/video] 2:19-- Safety preoccupied by Tavon flaring out gives Bailey the 1 on 1 without help. (draws the easy flag) 3:10-- 19 yard TD. 2 defenders stay with Tavon (one holds him badly) leaving Bailey wide open in the EZ. 4:43-- 87 yard TD. Safety staring into backfield leaves Bailey uncovered down the sideline. 5:17-- 39 yard TD. Safety (#21) keyed on Austin running a drive route across the field in front of him. Bailey left 1 on 1 w/o help over top. 6:43-- 8 yard TD. Safety over top Austin gets caught in no man's land with Austin running the slant.
that's great. So with Tavon's route running diversity and apparent intelligence he should be coveted by Philbin. If we're looking at drafting a slot receiver (like Austin who would be spending most of his time in the slot here) we should be looking at players who are top slot receivers first and foremost (but can be moved around) rather than a receiver better fit for the perimeter whom we try to turn into a slot guy which is entirely counterproductive to the 70+% of the time he'll be spending in the slot. There's a such thing as trying to get too cute. Swope isn't a Greg Jennings/Randall Cobb type impact player from the slot; neither are Quinton Patton, Robert Woods, and Stedman Bailey IMO. The closest to that is Austin, with everyone else a distant second. If you'd rather have Swope or Patton play the slot b/c the 30% of the time he's lined up outside he "may" be better suited, then I'd have to heavily question that motive b/c it seems quite backward. We should want the guy who is the best in the slot for the 70+% of the time he's there, period. Now, if we're talking about starting flanker & split end, then yes, they obviously should be a perimeter guy first and foremost but have the ability to play inside.
i' m on that guys bandwagon for some time...i think...lol, would have no problem if we take him at #12, i'm also all in with DJ's philosophy of going all in on offense with our draft first picks, rebuilt that offense, we need playmakers, just as ireland stated as well some months ago, which also makes me believe he got the message
I don't know how well that would look on the field, but damn if it wouldn't electrify this fanbase. I'd be for it....what's the worse that can happen that hasn't already happened?
I like Austin. I don't think he has many questions. The only real concerns with him are durability (size) and physicality (struggles to separate when rerouted). You can find ways to him the ball all over the field.
It depends on who is available for me. It helps that Austin is a versatile slot receiver, with the game being played in between the hashes so much.
I would substitute that analogy with Patterson, not Austin..not saying that I mean that, just that the comparison would be closer.
I see your points, but are there not exceptions to the rule? Are saying that Austin can't line up at all three positions because of his stature?, basically the concern is he will be smothered on the boundary by larger corners so that will disrupt the timing of the offense thus nullifying his incredible skillet? How do we know what Sherman and Philbin could do when it comes to the versatility of their offense, couldn't it be he's the skillset they may want to get to evolve, is it to much to ask a scheme to move around a player on offense? And still have the receivers on the same page.. It must be what I said in the first statement, stature.
We've heard that about the importance of having all the WRs being able to play every position outside or in the slot, yet last season we didn't really see it. Hartline was outside right it seemed like 90% of the time. I think the idea of having versatile receivers is as much a contingency plan in case of injury as anything else. Most WRs maybe able to play inside or outside, but are going to be varying degrees of better at one or the other. How often did Green Bay line Cobb up as the X, and Jordy in the slot? Nowhere nearly as often as the other way around it seemed to me. IMO, you are going to want your WRs where they are most effective, assuming all are healthy and able to play. Look at the Pats. Seems to me like Welker lives in the slot, but his limitations sure ain't stopped him from having the most catches over the past few seasons. From 2008 through 2012, I'll bet Welker easily leads the league in catches. Not bad for a slow sawed off slot only receiver. Welker is a quarter inch taller and 20 lbs heavier than Tavon, but he runs over a 4.6 forty.
I do think stature is a limiting factor. It is simply more difficult to make contested catches when you lack the size. And on the perimeter you have more instances where you have to use your body to shield the defender due to better coverage personnel and the routes. Some smaller players have a knack for it. Bailey for example, is not a big guy but seems to win those contested catches most of the time. Austin doesn't. He wins with quickness. I saw some videos posted of Austin making contested catches (by Phinsational), but I thought the descriptions greatly exaggerated what Austin did on those plays. Austin is great at gaining separation with quickness, but average at best when covered And those covered situations will probably be more common at the next level. I do believe it is unrealistic to just change the system. That versatility is inherent to how the plays are disguised. It's too simplistic to just say,"he's a play maker so we should add him". The fit matters. Now I'm not ready to say that Austin can't play on the perimeter. He has supposedly worked on his route running since the season ended. Presumably that would have included work on the whole route tree. I would bring him in and let him show me how he's progressing. If he's a smart as I hope he is (and as dedicated) then I think there's a decent chance that he could develop into at least as good of a perimeter WR as Bess is. I don't think that would make him a great perimeter WR, but it would be enough for me to consider him passable there. If he's as dynamic as I hope in the slot then I could justify the drafting of him in the first. IMO him being a passable perimeter WR and a dynamic slot WR would take him from a a 40% player (40% of the snaps as Brandt said) to a 70% player. I think there's a good chance that Philbin would want him then. And I believe Ireland would take him. Ireland wanted Harvin when he was coming out. My feeling is that Ireland tends to fall fall for the speed guy more while Philbin would look more at the fit.
I don't think Austin is my #1 choice but I wouldn't be upset if we drafted him. He's a playmaker and that's what we lack. I don't think size is that big of a deal as long as we have another WR over 6' starting opposite of him. Steve Smith and Wes Welker aren't much bigger than him.
Great post! The part I bolded is going to be the key, IMO. If you evaluate Austin and determine based on your evaluation that he's a guy who will have to play in the slot, off the line, and be moved around some to create mismatches, then I'm just not sure you take him at 12. If you evaluate him and come away thinking that he could very well play on the outside as well as in the slot, then he's very much in play at 12. Personally, I think he's definitely going to be in play for the 12th pick. The Dolphins have spent a lot of time sniffing around West Virginia, and it is usually a strong interest sign when Jeff Ireland personally goes to watch you play. Granted, he could be looking at Stedman Bailey instead, but like last year with Tannehill, Ireland tends to attend games of potential 1st round guys. On the WVU team, the first round prospects are Austin and Smith, and IMO, Miami will not be interested in Smith.
