Football Gameplan's 2013 Dolphins v Browns Wk 1 Preview

byroan · Sep 5, 2013

ckparrothead said:

This is something that is really perplexing. I'm hearing something like 66% of everyone are betting the Browns. The line was at a Pick, then it was at Browns -1, now I think it's at Browns -1.5 in some places. I hear the sharps are on the Browns as well.

The Browns lose Josh Gordon, Dion Lewis, Shawn Lauvao/Jason Pinkston, Kellen Davis and probably Barkevious Mingo. The Dolphins lost Dustin Keller.

I'm having trouble reconciling this one. Who the hell is Brandon Weeden going to throw the ball to when he gets blitzed? Greg Little? Travis Benjamin? Davone Bess? Who is going to be his blitz beater? Are the Browns going to run the ball against Miami's run defense? Because the Browns have some weaknesses in their run defense that are vulnerable (Paul Kruger) whereas Miami's looks as strong as ever. Miami's receivers are capable of getting open. Hartline can get open against Buster Skrine or Chris Owens, and if Leon McFadden is playing forget about it. Mike Wallace has plenty of talent to get open against Joe Haden even with Haden being as good as he is. Craig Robertson is highly vulnerable in pass coverage.
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It's surprising to me as well. I actually thought we'd be favored more than the 1.5 we were favored a couple months ago.

Bpk · Sep 5, 2013

Springveldt said:

Don't forget Odrick is at his rightful position now so we have a fantastic 3 man rotation there. I'd hope we can limit Soliai's snap count.
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I'm not convinced Odrick is stout against the run inside. At end, yes, inside against consistent double teams and more trash? Not as certain.

I think it falls more on how healthy Starks is, how his conditioning and strength are with the time he missed, and how Kheeston Randall performs on goalline, or when subbing a 'hog' like soliai.

Springveldt · Sep 6, 2013

Bpk said:

I'm not convinced Odrick is stout against the run inside. At end, yes, inside against consistent double teams and more trash? Not as certain.

I think it falls more on how healthy Starks is, how his conditioning and strength are with the time he missed, and how Kheeston Randall performs on goalline, or when subbing a 'hog' like soliai.
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Randall? Did I miss him being re-signed?

I think Odrick will be fine inside. Soliai will be seeing most of the double teams but even if Odrick does struggle to hold up we have Starks to come in on obvious run downs and save Odrick for obvious passing situations.

djphinfan · Sep 9, 2013

BudTugly said:

I guess my overall POV regarding the passrush/protection matchups is that Cleveland has an advantage there which might be negated by Tanny's ability to extend plays. He was pretty good going downfield last year and Wallace's main strength is basically getting loose deep in those situations. Therapist was great with him in that regard in Pissburgh.

What I mean by overall advantage is that while Wake is clearly the best player on either front 7, what we got is pretty good. Adding Kruger, Groves, Mingo, Bryant, and getting big Phil back on top of what we we capable of last year, plus moving to a more aggressive system, should mean effective pass rush.

However on the other side of the ball Thomas/Shwartz is a vastly superior pair. Mack is also very very good. Greco is okay. I don't believe Miami is going to dominate the edges. If they come around the edge it will be with numbers for the most part. Weeds was not sacked much last season.

Again, IMO the winner of the game will be the team that establishes the run. If Tanny/Miller are more effective than Trent you win. I do believe Miami has an advantage run blocking as we are just flat out underwhelming at it. Whatever Trent gets he's going to earn in manly fashion.

Also don't underestimate the absurdly negative impact Shurmur's playcalling had on our offense. 60% of fans watching us could probably correctly guess the play being run based on formation, down, and distance. We will be better than that under Norv/Chud.
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After week #1 were the #1 team in sacks and pressures..

I guess if we can do that against that good oline we should be even better against the more mediocre ones..

Wake 2.5 sacks..

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