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Florida beware.. a storm is coming

Discussion in 'Science & Technology' started by cnc66, Aug 15, 2008.

  1. cnc66

    cnc66 wiley veteran, bad spelur Luxury Box

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    Invest 92 started as a wave coming off the the African coast. A strong wave, it's development has been hampered by dry air and Saharan dust as it moved across the Atlantic. Two days ago, all the models started showing an inclination towards the Bahama Islands, and Florida. The computers have had a terrible time figuring out just exactly "where" the center of the storm was. Instead of a "center" of circulation, it was a "convergence zone" several hundred miles long. Two days ago this issue began to resolve itself, giving the computer models something to work with.

    Here is a link to the tropical/hurricane pages at Weather Underground;

    http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/

    Wind shear is less than ten knots, the storm has surrounded itself with enough moisture to defeat the dry air around it AND it is moving into warmer waters. They have for two days been predicting that circulation would close, and the storm would begin to intensify, it has not happened. Just yesterday afternoon, two hurricane hunters entered the storm and found no lower level closed circulation.. this is good..WAS good.. overnight, the system has begun to rotate and they "now" forecast it will get a name today.

    For "us" here in Florida, this system will VERY likely affect us starting about Sunday-Monday. IF the storm tracks close enough to Hispaniola,and Cuba, the mountains will disrupt, possible even prevent any serious strengthening. Here's the catch.. the storm WILL at some point start moving north, there is a frontal system moving down Conus that will cause this northerly push. IF this track brings it into the Florida Straights, and moves up the corridor between Florida and the Bahama Islands following the Gulfstream, there is enough energy potential for the storm to SUDDENLY spin up and "perhaps" become a major storm.

    The danger here, in my mind, is that this storm could appear benign and harmless until it is very close to Florida's shore and then, like Andrew, suddenly spin up into a major hurricane. If this happens, in all likelihood, a whole bunch of folks will be caught unprepared, with bad weather already upon them, and no time left for preparations.

    For now, is is still "just" a sorta organized low pressure area.. a tropical wave if you will that is struggling to intensify. Depending on it's track this will, or will not be very successful, do not be lulled into thinking we are safe until it is actually north of us, in open ocean.

    Here are some computer models, I have been saving them for a couple of days to see how the models change. Here is Wednesday.. it really got my attention..

    [​IMG]

    the next model, Thursday;

    [​IMG]

    Thursday evening;

    [​IMG]

    and current.. this should STAY current, it is a live link.. AND it is the best one so far..

    [​IMG]
     
  2. finswin56

    finswin56 Get a mop

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    I choose D. Give my grass some water, but leave me the heck alone.

    Thanks for the heads up Marty :up:
    I heard about this early in the week, but totally forgot.
     
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  3. opfinistic

    opfinistic Braaaaains!

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    Oooof. Thanks Marty, I'm supposed to leave town tonight through Sunday and now wonder if it would be wise to stay home and buy some spam.
     
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  4. Desides

    Desides Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, we've had a bunch of other storms coming too. News media is desperate for a big hurricane season to prop up global warming.

    I like how no one can decide where the storm is going.
     
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  5. cnc66

    cnc66 wiley veteran, bad spelur Luxury Box

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    All images and Dr. Masters comments come from Weather Underground, Inc.

    http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/

    According to Dr. Masters, the hurricane hunters found strong mid level winds in a closed system, but it had yet to do that at the lower levels. He expects the NHC to give it a name this afternoon. Here is this mornings doppler out of San Juan. As you can see, there are some winds at or near hurricane force in the mid levels.

    [​IMG]

    It is trying to become better organized as the day passes, here is the 248 nautical mile morning loop from San Juan. The center of circulation is very hard to discern as it is very large and ill defined at this point.

    [​IMG]

    here is the forecast from Dr. Masters;

    snip

    I hope he is right.. maybe some wind shear will set up and keep it deflated until it is by Florida. No matter, the Carolina's need to watch this storm too. Given the proper track over the Gulfstream, it could be a major storm arriving in the Carolina's.

    Something that is making me nervous is the "dogleg" that 5 of the 8 models are showing... It brings Francis to mind.
     
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  6. cnc66

    cnc66 wiley veteran, bad spelur Luxury Box

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    Joe and Jimmy, you are welcome. It gives me something to yak about.:up:

    not me De... I live thirty feet from Indian River. :wink2:
     
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  7. opfinistic

    opfinistic Braaaaains!

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    My wife left for Texas yesterday, lucky broad. She hates not having power and eating spam....I should have gone with her. :angry:
     
  8. cnc66

    cnc66 wiley veteran, bad spelur Luxury Box

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    I dunno.. Texas has already had two make landfall there.. and there are some new issues that might bring even more action to the gulf area this season. Apparently, starting next week the Bermuda High, which generally influences storms to turn north into the Atlantic is being replaced by another high pressure ridge. This is going to influence more storms into the Gulf and is similar to the 2004-2005 seasons. Names like Francis, Jeanne, Charlie, Ivan, Cindy, Dennis, Katrina, Rita and Wilma, will be remembered with those years.
     
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  9. opfinistic

    opfinistic Braaaaains!

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    She's in Dallas, pretty safe from Hurricanes. Now Tornadoes.....:shifty:
     
  10. Cuban Dave 9

    Cuban Dave 9 Lane Kiffin = A-Clown

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    It won't develop strong enough if it hits us. Just will cause some still much needed rain
     
  11. opfinistic

    opfinistic Braaaaains!

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    Whistlin' in the dark? I hope you're right CD. :up:
     
  12. gafinfan

    gafinfan gunner Club Member

    Thanks Marty. I'm hoping for rain, Georgia sure NEEDS it bad. Saying that, I also hope this guy doesn't really turn bad cause I don't want rain so much to see people hurt.
     
  13. cnc66

    cnc66 wiley veteran, bad spelur Luxury Box

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    Well, as expected, Invest 92 is now Tropical storm Fay. The computer models have moved west, things are looking better for me, worse for those in the gulf maybe. The models are starting to account for the high pressure ridge I spoke of a couple posts back. My feeling right now is this westward drift of the model tracks will continue. Here is the latest model set

    [​IMG]

    Here is the official current forecast track notice that they have it staying a tropical storm. This track here is significantly west of just this morning, refer back to the other model images in this thread. I think it will move west, BUT this forecast track might be the best of all possibilities for everyone.. stay over the mountains and have disrupted circulation, (we need these mountains as it will be on some of the warmest water in the entire Caribbean.) Quickly cross the Florida straights and get the center over land again, giving Florida a couple of inches of rain on the whole state. Never getting the opportunity to strengthen, just remain a rain event. We can hope!

    [​IMG]

    this is a link to the "Flash Tracker" It shows sea surface temperatures, expected pressures and wind strength. Just look at how much warm water awaits this storm should it get into the gulf...

    http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200806_flashtool.html?extraprod=flashtool
     
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  14. opfinistic

    opfinistic Braaaaains!

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    Worst thing is those SOBs can stall over warm water and beef up real quick.
     
  15. cnc66

    cnc66 wiley veteran, bad spelur Luxury Box

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    with wind shear at less than ten knots, if it clears the mountains, it could spin up quickly. Dr. Masters thinks it could easily be a cat two storm by the time it crossed the gulf. We'll know more in a couple days.
     
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  16. opfinistic

    opfinistic Braaaaains!

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    Fingers are crossed.
     
  17. Coral Reefer

    Coral Reefer Premium Member

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    .... and can start acting funny as well.

    These models are just computer predictions based on current and forecasted conditions. They don't take into consideration that these things can sometimes grow a mind of their own.

    I take the predictions into consideration but never take my eye off the storm themselves no matter what the predictions are.

    Again, Marty, nice to see your Hurricane Central threads!
     
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  18. cnc66

    cnc66 wiley veteran, bad spelur Luxury Box

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    Wellll, things have changed some overnight. The forecast track has drifted a little west, with the predicted path being just offshore the Florida west coast, AND, they now have it becoming a hurricane BEFORE it crosses Cuba for the last time. To me, this is not unexpected, if the center of circulation ever gets to set up over the water, there is PLENTY of energy there for intensification. Wind shear is down, about the only deterrent to intensification are the mountains of Cuba. The area that they have Fay actually becoming a hurricane in is some of the warmest in the Caribbean. How long the center is over that water, and how quickly the storm transects Cuba going north will determine what arrives off Florida's coast. Once Fay transits into the Florida Straits and begins its run up the Florida west coast, it will encounter some of the warmest water in the Atlantic basin. I will delve into some history of what this might mean after some forecast tracks. Here is this mornings computer model set;

    [​IMG]

    Here is the official forecast track, notice that Fay becomes a hurricane in the early hours of Monday morning.. she will be clear of Cuba by 2pm Monday and could be dangerous to Key West, and affecting Miami by that time. Monday is ALL we have in South Florida to prepare, by Tuesday morning at dawn, the storm could already be on top of our brother inFINSible in Naples. If I lived on the Gulf, I would be watching this storm;

    [​IMG]


    I would ask you to recall that in 2004 Hurricane Charlie jumped 2 categories in 6 hours just before landfall at Cape Coral. In 2005 Dennis came off Cuba much like Fay is predicted to do and became a cat 4 storm for awhile, making landfall as a cat 3 at Pensacola Bay. Hell, Katrina intensified while over the Everglades.. pulling energy from the same warm water Fay will cross Tuesday morning. They can and will surprise us.
     
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  19. Coral Reefer

    Coral Reefer Premium Member

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    I've been noticing that Tampa Tribune's online version has nothing about this storm approaching FL. still.

    Then the latest forecast comes out at aound 5pm stating the projected landing for the storm is Tampa at this point. It's all over the Sun Sentinel's online paper.... the Ft. Lauderdale paper but STILL the Tampa Tribune has NOTHING.

    LMFAO.

    What the hell is wrong with this paper over here!
    Great job letting their keeping their reader base advised of a possible Hurricane approaching in 2 days!
     
  20. pocoloco

    pocoloco I'm your huckleberry Club Member

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    Governor just declared a state of emergency

    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26226503/
     
  21. late again

    late again Senior Member

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    The weatherunderground is a really good website. I like it much better than the nhc site. I've got it bookmarked.
    Infins was who I thought of when I saw Faye was predicted to veer into the gulf and hit the naples area. So infins, good luck and I hope you stay safe.
     
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  22. cnc66

    cnc66 wiley veteran, bad spelur Luxury Box

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    Well, things were all over since my last update. The computer models all moved to the west yesterday, but have now moved back over the west coast of Florida. Here are the computer models. The dark blue one, the GFDL model has Fay reorginizing into a cat 1 storm before making landfall again in South Carolina.. so YOU have to watch out also.

    [​IMG]

    here is the official forecast track.. it never did move very far west yesterday, it had landfall at Cape Coral, currently, it is running up the west coast as a strong cat one.

    [​IMG]

    Yesterday I brought up hurricane Charlie and how it spun up just before landfall. Dr Masters discusses Charlie in this mornings blog;

    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1027&tstamp=200808

     
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  23. HolliFinFan

    HolliFinFan Not a Face Painter Luxury Box

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    According to the Sun-Sentinel, school is canceled in Monroe, Miami-Dade and Broward counties tomorrow. Marty, the weather guru, premature?
     
  24. cnc66

    cnc66 wiley veteran, bad spelur Luxury Box

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    hard to say.. err on the side of caution with our children.. as we speak the wind-field over southern Florida is beginning to move in response to Fay. It would only take one squall line to become really energetic and it could make everyone say, why didn't you... The lower keys will be having bad, deteriorating weather starting at dawn Monday, with the storm on top of Key West at sunset. Remember, Monday daylight is all we have to decide what to do, and to get it done.

    The squall line about to make landfall on YOU is from Fay. Here is the current radar loop out of Key West;

    [​IMG]
     
  25. HolliFinFan

    HolliFinFan Not a Face Painter Luxury Box

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    Thanks. Good to go here. Just have to get the portable a/c and generator out of storage!
     
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  26. Miamian

    Miamian Senior Member

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    Stay safe everyone.
     
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  27. Celtkin

    Celtkin <B>Webmaster</b> Luxury Box

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    Be safe, my friends.

    Marty, you are doing an outstanding job of keeping everyone educated and informed.
     
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  28. Desides

    Desides Well-Known Member

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    Cannot believe the amount of freaking out over a tropical storm.
     
  29. Celtkin

    Celtkin <B>Webmaster</b> Luxury Box

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    Because tropical storms, like hurricanes, can spawn devastating tornados. Not to mention there is a possibility that the storm can stall over the Gulf and become more powerful then come ashore. It hasn't been all since that long ago that exact scenario happened.
     
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  30. Desides

    Desides Well-Known Member

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    Can they? Sure. Is it likely to happen? Based on history, I'm going to put that down under the "No" column. South Florida doesn't get all that many tornadoes, especially considering that our bad weather is fairly conducive to tornado formation.

    With this storm, I'm worried about the rain; the wind is a distant second unless and until it strengthens to actual hurricane status.
     
  31. Celtkin

    Celtkin <B>Webmaster</b> Luxury Box

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    Not everyone who has responded to this thread lives in South Florida. Think about this in broader terms since member of this board live in areas that may not be a lucky as where you live.

    Here is a recent example:

    http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/09/21/storm/main3285673.shtml
     
  32. cnc66

    cnc66 wiley veteran, bad spelur Luxury Box

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    nobody is freaking out, please bring more to the table than an insult
     
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  33. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    Stay safe everyone in harms way of this one, hopefully it wont get to bad :)
     
  34. Desides

    Desides Well-Known Member

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    Talking about media coverage, particularly national media, not people posting in the thread. No insult was made.

    Ironically enough, it appears as if the counties in which the most preparations are being made (Miami-Dade, Monroe, Broward) aren't even going to feel the worst of the storm, if the projections here are correct. Looks like a fairly quick-moving storm, too. That'll minimize further the damage of those 50 Mph winds.

    I really do not see a problem with this storm. It's routine this time of year. The fact that we're already up to F in the annual storm name list, with only one making landfall, is pretty good in my book.

    I think Dr. Klotzbach owes us an apology to date.
     
  35. finswin56

    finswin56 Get a mop

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    Sorry, but it's not routine until it fizzles out w/o being much of a problem. Saying it's routine at this point is premature. I HOPE you're right, but not treating this as a legitimate threat has no upside. I know you like your economics. Think risk reward. Also just think back a few years to hurrican Ivan. That's all the reminder I need on just how unpredicatable these things can be.
     
  36. HolliFinFan

    HolliFinFan Not a Face Painter Luxury Box

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    Indeed. We didn't put up the shutters for Wilma because it was supposed to come in on the West coast and die out, yet on the East coast (delray), 26 of 52 homes in our community lost their roofs. (We had tornadoes that did it.) We saw our neighbor's roofing material fly past us. I'm not paranoid about this front, just educated in preparation. To be any less speaks to either lack of serious impact from a storm before or inexperience and/or the perceived invincibility of youth.
     
  37. cnc66

    cnc66 wiley veteran, bad spelur Luxury Box

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    good morning gang.. Fay is moving off Cuba into the Florida Straits this morning.. by "my" eye, the storm is further east than expected, as it took a jog to the east overnight. Still disorganized, it looks like we will only get a minimal hurricane, mostly a rain event to se Florida. Again, by my eye, if Fay IS tracking further east than predicted, it will make landfall sooner, thus lessening the chance this thing spins up and becomes dangerous. Here is this mornings 248nm radar loop out of Key West;

    [​IMG]

    by this radar loop, it appears the center of circulation is moving offshore right now. Once the center is over water, it can begin getting stronger, let us hope it runs into Florida first.. a statewide rain event wouldn't be so bad. I just watched Vipir radar rainfall predictions.. it really gets serious overnight with the bulk tomorrow during daylight hours. They had Boca getting 6+ inches so be prepared for miserable gusty weather. Good luck everyone, lets hope no intensification gets going and we just get wet. Expected landfall is between Naples and Tampa, all that area needs to be aware of storm surge issues AND that historically, storms moving across that area have been know to suddenly spin up. Keep a weather eye out, it COULD come ashore at Flamingo. The further EAST the track moves, the greater the impact to Miami/Ft.Lauderdale/West Palm/Marty's house. Today is your ONLY prepare day in south Florida folks.. git ur done :hi5:
     
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  38. Desides

    Desides Well-Known Member

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    Definitely moved to the east. I note that it appears to be weakening as it moves; you can see the heavy elements fizzling out as it continues.

    Cats are indoors, cars in the garage, all preparation done.
     
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  39. Cuban Dave 9

    Cuban Dave 9 Lane Kiffin = A-Clown

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    At work...YEAH! My GF works for FPL cust. service...please don't call customer service if your power goes out. Call 1-800-4outage. The system is automated but it has current updates and you can report down powerlines. Be safe!
     
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  40. Cuban Dave 9

    Cuban Dave 9 Lane Kiffin = A-Clown

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    Tornado Warning for Miami-Dade
     
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