Florida beware.. a storm is coming

I choose D. Give my grass some water, but leave me the heck alone.

Thanks for the heads up Marty :up:
I heard about this early in the week, but totally forgot.

Oooof. Thanks Marty, I'm supposed to leave town tonight through Sunday and now wonder if it would be wise to stay home and buy some spam.

Yeah, we've had a bunch of other storms coming too. News media is desperate for a big hurricane season to prop up global warming.

I like how no one can decide where the storm is going.

All images and Dr. Masters comments come from Weather Underground, Inc.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/

According to Dr. Masters, the hurricane hunters found strong mid level winds in a closed system, but it had yet to do that at the lower levels. He expects the NHC to give it a name this afternoon. Here is this mornings doppler out of San Juan. As you can see, there are some winds at or near hurricane force in the mid levels.

It is trying to become better organized as the day passes, here is the 248 nautical mile morning loop from San Juan. The center of circulation is very hard to discern as it is very large and ill defined at this point.

here is the forecast from Dr. Masters;

Dr. Jeff Masters wrote:

The forecast for 92L
Wind shear is a mere 1 knot over 92L, as analyzed by the SHIPS model. An upper-level anticyclone has set up on top of 92L, allowing the air lifted from the surface by the storm's heavy thunderstorms to be efficiently spewed out to the sides, ventilating the storm and promoting even more intense thunderstorm activity. This favorable upper-level wind environment is expected to last at least through Sunday. Beyond then, increasing shear may be a problem for the storm.

snip

Dr. Jeff Masters wrote:

In the longer term, an encounter with the rugged terrain of eastern Cuba is forecast by many of the models on Sunday. Passage over the rough terrain of Hispaniola and Cuba could severely disrupt or even destroy 92L. Once the storm finally emerges and stays over the warm waters of the Bahamas or Florida Straits, the models expect it to intensify quickly into a hurricane, possibly a major hurricane. The eventual strength is highly dependent on the track of 92L, with a longer track over water giving it a greater chance of becoming a hurricane. I think the models are overdoing the intensification of 92L once it does pop off the coast of Cuba. We saw in 2006 that Ernesto popped off the coast of Cuba as a weak tropical storm, and took a full 36 hours to get its act together. Still, 92L may have a much longer time over water than Ernesto had, and if the storm does spend 2 or 3 days over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream off the coast of Florida, the storm could easily intensify into a major hurricane, as the GFDL and HWRF models have been predicting for several days now.

I hope he is right.. maybe some wind shear will set up and keep it deflated until it is by Florida. No matter, the Carolina's need to watch this storm too. Given the proper track over the Gulfstream, it could be a major storm arriving in the Carolina's.

Something that is making me nervous is the "dogleg" that 5 of the 8 models are showing... It brings Francis to mind.

"Desides wrote:

Yeah, we've had a bunch of other storms coming too. News media is desperate for a big hurricane season to prop up global warming.

I like how no one can decide where the storm is going.

Joe and Jimmy, you are welcome. It gives me something to yak about.:up:

not me De... I live thirty feet from Indian River. :wink2:

"cnc66 wrote:

Joe and Jimmy, you are welcome. It gives me something to yak about.:up:

not me De... I live thirty feet from Indian River. :wink2:

My wife left for Texas yesterday, lucky broad. She hates not having power and eating spam....I should have gone with her. :angry:

"opfinistic wrote:

My wife left for Texas yesterday, lucky broad. She hates not having power and eating spam....I should have gone with her. :angry:

I dunno.. Texas has already had two make landfall there.. and there are some new issues that might bring even more action to the gulf area this season. Apparently, starting next week the Bermuda High, which generally influences storms to turn north into the Atlantic is being replaced by another high pressure ridge. This is going to influence more storms into the Gulf and is similar to the 2004-2005 seasons. Names like Francis, Jeanne, Charlie, Ivan, Cindy, Dennis, Katrina, Rita and Wilma, will be remembered with those years.

"cnc66 wrote:

I dunno.. Texas has already had two make landfall there.. and there are some new issues that might bring even more action to the gulf area this season. Apparently, starting next week the Bermuda High, which generally influences storms to turn north into the Atlantic is being replaced by another high pressure ridge. This is going to influence more storms into the Gulf and is similar to the 2004-2005 seasons. Names like Francis, Jeanne, Charlie, Ivan, Cindy, Dennis, Katrina, Rita and Wilma, will be remembered with those years.

She's in Dallas, pretty safe from Hurricanes. Now Tornadoes.....:shifty:

It won't develop strong enough if it hits us. Just will cause some still much needed rain

"Cuban Dave 9 wrote:

It won't develop strong enough if it hits us. Just will cause some still much needed rain

Whistlin' in the dark? I hope you're right CD. :up:

Thanks Marty. I'm hoping for rain, Georgia sure NEEDS it bad. Saying that, I also hope this guy doesn't really turn bad cause I don't want rain so much to see people hurt.

Well, as expected, Invest 92 is now Tropical storm Fay. The computer models have moved west, things are looking better for me, worse for those in the gulf maybe. The models are starting to account for the high pressure ridge I spoke of a couple posts back. My feeling right now is this westward drift of the model tracks will continue. Here is the latest model set

Here is the official current forecast track notice that they have it staying a tropical storm. This track here is significantly west of just this morning, refer back to the other model images in this thread. I think it will move west, BUT this forecast track might be the best of all possibilities for everyone.. stay over the mountains and have disrupted circulation, (we need these mountains as it will be on some of the warmest water in the entire Caribbean.) Quickly cross the Florida straights and get the center over land again, giving Florida a couple of inches of rain on the whole state. Never getting the opportunity to strengthen, just remain a rain event. We can hope!

this is a link to the "Flash Tracker" It shows sea surface temperatures, expected pressures and wind strength. Just look at how much warm water awaits this storm should it get into the gulf...

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200806_flashtool.html?extraprod=flashtool

Worst thing is those SOBs can stall over warm water and beef up real quick.

"opfinistic wrote:

Worst thing is those SOBs can stall over warm water and beef up real quick.

with wind shear at less than ten knots, if it clears the mountains, it could spin up quickly. Dr. Masters thinks it could easily be a cat two storm by the time it crossed the gulf. We'll know more in a couple days.

"cnc66 wrote:

with wind shear at less than ten knots, if it clears the mountains, it could spin up quickly. Dr. Masters thinks it could easily be a cat two storm by the time it crossed the gulf. We'll know more in a couple days.

Fingers are crossed.

"opfinistic wrote:

Worst thing is those SOBs can stall over warm water and beef up real quick.

.... and can start acting funny as well.

These models are just computer predictions based on current and forecasted conditions. They don't take into consideration that these things can sometimes grow a mind of their own.

I take the predictions into consideration but never take my eye off the storm themselves no matter what the predictions are.

Again, Marty, nice to see your Hurricane Central threads!

Wellll, things have changed some overnight. The forecast track has drifted a little west, with the predicted path being just offshore the Florida west coast, AND, they now have it becoming a hurricane BEFORE it crosses Cuba for the last time. To me, this is not unexpected, if the center of circulation ever gets to set up over the water, there is PLENTY of energy there for intensification. Wind shear is down, about the only deterrent to intensification are the mountains of Cuba. The area that they have Fay actually becoming a hurricane in is some of the warmest in the Caribbean. How long the center is over that water, and how quickly the storm transects Cuba going north will determine what arrives off Florida's coast. Once Fay transits into the Florida Straits and begins its run up the Florida west coast, it will encounter some of the warmest water in the Atlantic basin. I will delve into some history of what this might mean after some forecast tracks. Here is this mornings computer model set;

Here is the official forecast track, notice that Fay becomes a hurricane in the early hours of Monday morning.. she will be clear of Cuba by 2pm Monday and could be dangerous to Key West, and affecting Miami by that time. Monday is ALL we have in South Florida to prepare, by Tuesday morning at dawn, the storm could already be on top of our brother inFINSible in Naples. If I lived on the Gulf, I would be watching this storm;

I would ask you to recall that in 2004 Hurricane Charlie jumped 2 categories in 6 hours just before landfall at Cape Coral. In 2005 Dennis came off Cuba much like Fay is predicted to do and became a cat 4 storm for awhile, making landfall as a cat 3 at Pensacola Bay. Hell, Katrina intensified while over the Everglades.. pulling energy from the same warm water Fay will cross Tuesday morning. They can and will surprise us.

I've been noticing that Tampa Tribune's online version has nothing about this storm approaching FL. still.

Then the latest forecast comes out at aound 5pm stating the projected landing for the storm is Tampa at this point. It's all over the Sun Sentinel's online paper.... the Ft. Lauderdale paper but STILL the Tampa Tribune has NOTHING.

LMFAO.

What the hell is wrong with this paper over here!
Great job letting their keeping their reader base advised of a possible Hurricane approaching in 2 days!

"Coral Reefer wrote:

I've been noticing that Tampa Tribune's online version has nothing about this storm approaching FL. still.

Then the latest forecast comes out at aound 5pm stating the projected landing for the storm is Tampa at this point. It's all over the Sun Sentinel's online paper.... the Ft. Lauderdale paper but STILL the Tampa Tribune has NOTHING.

LMFAO.

What the hell is wrong with this paper over here!
Great job letting their keeping their reader base advised of a possible Hurricane approaching in 2 days!

Governor just declared a state of emergency

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26226503/

The weatherunderground is a really good website. I like it much better than the nhc site. I've got it bookmarked.
Infins was who I thought of when I saw Faye was predicted to veer into the gulf and hit the naples area. So infins, good luck and I hope you stay safe.

Well, things were all over since my last update. The computer models all moved to the west yesterday, but have now moved back over the west coast of Florida. Here are the computer models. The dark blue one, the GFDL model has Fay reorginizing into a cat 1 storm before making landfall again in South Carolina.. so YOU have to watch out also.

here is the official forecast track.. it never did move very far west yesterday, it had landfall at Cape Coral, currently, it is running up the west coast as a strong cat one.

Yesterday I brought up hurricane Charlie and how it spun up just before landfall. Dr Masters discusses Charlie in this mornings blog;

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1027&tstamp=200808

Dr. Jeff Masters wrote:

Comparing Fay to Hurricane Charley
Residents of Southwest Florida are nervously watching Fay as it approaches Cuba, recalling an August day four years ago when Hurricane Charley crossed Cuba at a similar location. Charley went on to become one of the most destructive hurricanes in history, wreaking $15 billion in damage after roaring ashore near Punta Gorda, Florida, as a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds. Charley put on a remarkable and unexpected burst of rapid intensification just before landfall. Could the same thing happen with Fay? After all, the sea surface temperatures, total ocean heat content, and wind shear are similar for the two storms. And, Fay has consistently lived up to its knickname of "The Joker", with its unpredictable behavior.

It's a pretty tall order to ask a tropical storm that has not yet developed an organized eyewall to put on a major intensification burst to major hurricane status in just one day. Southwest Florida is not going to see a repeat of the Hurricane Charley experience. I give Fay just a 10% chance of making Category 3 status, and that would most likely occur if it avoids a Southwest Florida landfall, and is able to spend an extra day over water and hit the Florida Panhandle or middle Gulf Coast near Alabama.

According to the Sun-Sentinel, school is canceled in Monroe, Miami-Dade and Broward counties tomorrow. Marty, the weather guru, premature?

"HolliFinFan wrote:

According to the Sun-Sentinel, school is canceled in Monroe, Miami-Dade and Broward counties tomorrow. Marty, the weather guru, premature?

hard to say.. err on the side of caution with our children.. as we speak the wind-field over southern Florida is beginning to move in response to Fay. It would only take one squall line to become really energetic and it could make everyone say, why didn't you... The lower keys will be having bad, deteriorating weather starting at dawn Monday, with the storm on top of Key West at sunset. Remember, Monday daylight is all we have to decide what to do, and to get it done.

The squall line about to make landfall on YOU is from Fay. Here is the current radar loop out of Key West;

Thanks. Good to go here. Just have to get the portable a/c and generator out of storage!