Flores & Grier on the Hot Seat

"texanphinatic wrote:

Tua/Love/Fromm going 7-9 next season and they will be back. Fans want to win. Once a team starts winning, they show up.

I quit watching baseball after the 94 strike. My team, the Braves, won the World Series in 95 and I didn't even watch it. Haven't watched MLB again, really. Totally lost interest. Winning doesn't solve everything.

"Rick 1966 wrote:

I quit watching baseball after the 94 strike. My team, the Braves, won the World Series in 95 and I didn't even watch it. Haven't watched MLB again, really. Totally lost interest. Winning doesn't solve everything.

Anecdotal evidence. Houston Astros blatantly tanked and was absolutely abysmal for several years but now they are winning, the fans are back. Yes, some probably didn't come back, but being a regular contender has brought more into the fold for now.

Miami would not be pursuing this course of action if they didn't think the finances would line up. But they have plenty of TV money for now to let them weather a few years of iffy fan interest.

"texanphinatic wrote:

Anecdotal evidence.

Yes, since I have a life, I am not going to put together a peer-reviewed study, so anecdotal evidence is all you're getting.

"Rick 1966 wrote:

I quit watching baseball after the 94 strike. My team, the Braves, won the World Series in 95 and I didn't even watch it. Haven't watched MLB again, really. Totally lost interest. Winning doesn't solve everything.

Glad I'm not the only one on this. Exact same thing with two exceptions. I did watch the Bosox run down the Yankees after going 0-3 in that series and I watched the Cubs win the thing a couple years ago. Can't tell you anything about players currently or whatever.

But anecdotal evidence isn't evidence.

Honestly, most of the past 10 years I've watched the Dolphins lose games they should win, eek out a few wins they shouldn't, and miss the playoffs. Now I just don't give an eff, I know they're gonna lose, and it's actually less painful.

"resnor wrote:

But anecdotal evidence isn't evidence.

It's evidence against a universal statement starting with "everyone." All you have to do is provide one counterexample to prove that false.

"Rick 1966 wrote:

It's evidence against a universal statement starting with "everyone." All you have to do is provide one counterexample to prove that false.

Who used that term? And even if someone did, it's silly to take it as literal.

There will probably some people that tune out and don't come back. But unlikely that they will represent any significant portion of the fanbase or that they won't be outweighed by new fans.

That said, I have 0 issue with any fan that feels the need for a break for a year or two here. No reason for gatekeeping nonsense from "true fans" or whatever in my view.

I also think you have the wrong analogy. The strike was a big downturn for baseball in general. Recent tanking efforts by teams like the Astros however haven't really shown huge and permanent fan downturns. I can guarantee you that Ross and other finance people studied cases of tanking in other sports - and probably even the shit times of teams like Detroit and Cleveland - and made the decision that it was safe to approach a teardown and rebuild in this manner. They don't just throw that kind of thing to the wind.

You can say that, but I have no confidence whatsoever in Ross' football acumen. He knows business, but football fans are not ordinary consumers. And I doubt this tanking will actually turn the team into a winner, so it will likely just mean 2-3 seasons of double-digit losing followed by more mediocrity.

"Rick 1966 wrote:

You can say that, but I have no confidence whatsoever in Ross' football acumen. He knows business, but football fans are not ordinary consumers. And I doubt this tanking will actually turn the team into a winner, so it will likely just mean 2-3 seasons of double-digit losing followed by more mediocrity.

You’re certainly entitled to feel that way. God knows this organization hasn’t instilled much hope.

But what else are you going to do? Keep fixing holes with overpriced free agents? Hope a franchise QB falls into the middle of the 1st round and/or keep taking chances with flawed guys like Tannehill? Try and make square pegs fit into round holes with a new coach and system?

I’m not attacking. Just more interested what some disgruntled fans think.

"mlb1399 wrote:

You’re certainly entitled to feel that way. God knows this organization hasn’t instilled much hope.

But what else are you going to do? Keep fixing holes with overpriced free agents? Hope a franchise QB falls into the middle of the 1st round and/or keep taking chances with flawed guys like Tannehill? Try and make square pegs fit into round holes with a new coach and system?

I’m not attacking. Just more interested what some disgruntled fans think.

Other teams have rebuilt themselves without tanking. The key isn't some strategy, the key is hiring a competent GM who will in turn hire competent scouts and listen to them. We have not done that. Our GMs have been horrible not just for years but for the better part of TWO DECADES. The last good GM we had, IMHO, was Jimmy freaking Johnson.

The mechanics behind what they're attempting to do are mind-boggling. A first year GM and a first year head coach (from a coaching tree that has largely flamed out when made an HC of other teams) basically telling this franchise it should suck on purpose in historical fashion, purposely making it even easier for the Patriots in this division. Never in my right mind did it ever occur to me that this franchise could be stupid enough to accept such a Trojan Horse.

Then it's expected we're to believe that in 2020 the roster will magically be overhauled with quality players just because they have 13 draft picks and $120 million in cap space. Do people realize the success rate they'd need to hit on in the draft? Odds are completely against them mining anymore than a 20-30% hit rate. Those players will EASILY need 3-4 seasons of growth too. Do they realize that the stench from this half-concocted tank is going to be so bad it will only add to the joke this franchise is viewed as and lure only the players interested in the money not the culture?

Flores can't even get this defense (his specialty) playing at a high level. Don't come crying to me about self-inflicted wounds making the score look worse than it was in the Pats game - BB was going easy on his former coach a guy he has affections for, this much was painfully obvious in the playcalling. That fact is this is going to last more than one season. It would be one thing if it were Ozzie Newsome leading the charge with an aging roster that he blew up to re-stock. But this is a couple of nobodies attempting to revamp almost an entire 53 man roster and 22 starters who have nothing in their pedigree to back up their theory. This isn't basketball where you have 5 starters and can tank to get a franchise changing generational talent. Even when you get the QB you still need the foundation beforehand and we know this because our beloved Marino didn't even win a title.

The icing on the cake is hearing Ross wanted to trade back to grab Lamar Jackson only to be stone-faced in very disrespectful fashion by Chris Grier - who's pick (a stand-up individual) already wants out of this clown car. Granted I doubt Jackson would be having that kind of success here, it just speaks to the real problem. You think guys like Xavien Howard want to spend their prime years wasting away? How soon before it takes a mental toll on them and they realize it's time to move on? This team isn't even remotely competitive on either side of the ball. There is literally nothing thru the first two weeks to make on logically think - you know ya they're losing, but the future is bright!

The problem is and will forever be having the wrong football guys in place. The advent of FA (on top of already having the draft) has allowed teams to swing the tide in a different direction without ever having to go nuclear. Many of those teams already had a core and/or trusted front office.

"Rick 1966 wrote:

Other teams have rebuilt themselves without tanking. The key isn't some strategy, the key is hiring a competent GM who will in turn hire competent scouts and listen to them. We have not done that. Our GMs have been horrible not just for years but for the better part of TWO DECADES. The last good GM we had, IMHO, was Jimmy freaking Johnson.

IF the foundation is there, you shouldn’t have to tank. Too many free agent signings, too many coaches with different schemes and players that fit those schemes and too many players who just weren’t living up to their contract.

"Rock Sexton wrote:

The mechanics behind what they're attempting to do are mind-boggling. A first year GM and a first year head coach (from a coaching tree that has largely flamed out when made an HC of other teams) basically telling this franchise it should suck on purpose in historical fashion, purposely making it even easier for the Patriots in this division. Never in my right mind did it ever occur to me that this franchise could be stupid enough to accept such a Trojan Horse.

Just my opinion but I think what we're seeing was instigated from Ross. I doubt any 1st time HC is going to try and convince an owner the team should tank like this. That would be EXTREMELY risky to propose something like that trying to land your first HC job.

No.. I think this comes directly from Ross. He's seen 3 HC's fail (Sparano, Philbin and Gase), and we all know he understands the importance of the QB position. He was just blinded for some reason by Tannehill. Now he sees the light and wants the #1 pick for that QB.

I also don't think Flores or most other coaches would purposely tank. Nor would the players. However, the GM and owner are a whole different ballgame. It's not only an open secret many do in MLB and NBA but in some cases they're even transparent about it, though one does have to be careful not to be TOO transparent. See Mark Cuban: fined 600k for telling his players it would be best to lose lol.

If we look at teams that have been successful for long periods of time you can see some patterns.

First off I will exclude the Patriots because I don’t want to get into their history of cheating or claims that the Belichek/Brady combo is something other teams can’t replicate.

In the AFC you have the Steelers and the Ravens. What do those two teams have in common? They have a plan, they know what their offensive and defensive systems are, they know the type of players that fit those plans, they know the types of coaches that can execute those plans. They acquire coaches and players based on how those people fit the physical and mental requirements to execute the plan.
Also it is a known plan, and it is a plan that they have had success with. You rarely see these teams take luxury picks, they go for solid meat and potatoes kind of guys, they rarely draft a Charles Harris type who they gamble on turning into something special. When they take draft gambles it is in the later rounds.
They also have succession plans. They often don’t need the rookies to contribute straight away. When a player walks away they usually already have the replacement in their pipeline.

Tanking might put us in a position to have a better chance of acquiring talent. However, it goes against the grain of building to a successful system that can be self sustaining. What are you going to do if the tank job is a success when a few years down the road the salary cap bites and the high quality players you drafted walk away in FA? Tank again?

"Pauly wrote:

If we look at teams that have been successful for long periods of time you can see some patterns.

First off I will exclude the Patriots because I don’t want to get into their history of cheating or claims that the Belichek/Brady combo is something other teams can’t replicate.

In the AFC you have the Steelers and the Ravens. What do those two teams have in common? They have a plan, they know what their offensive and defensive systems are, they know the type of players that fit those plans, they know the types of coaches that can execute those plans. They acquire coaches and players based on how those people fit the physical and mental requirements to execute the plan.
Also it is a known plan, and it is a plan that they have had success with. You rarely see these teams take luxury picks, they go for solid meat and potatoes kind of guys, they rarely draft a Charles Harris type who they gamble on turning into something special. When they take draft gambles it is in the later rounds.
They also have succession plans. They often don’t need the rookies to contribute straight away. When a player walks away they usually already have the replacement in their pipeline.

Every GM and HC has a "plan". Some plans and some talent evaluators just aren't good enough to stick around.

It's also no secret why Pittsburgh, NE and the Ravens have a successful franchise: they've had great GM's and HC's. Belichick for NE, Rooney, Colbert, Noll, Cowher and Tomlin for Pitt, and Harbaugh and Ozzie Newsome for the Ravens.

Great franchises are built from the top down. That's no secret. Doesn't help knowing that though. I mean.. how do you find that great talent evaluator or HC? Also, it's not clear Flores is a bad hire either.. it's only been 2 games no matter how bad the games were.

"Pauly wrote:

Tanking might put us in a position to have a better chance of acquiring talent. However, it goes against the grain of building to a successful system that can be self sustaining. What are you going to do if the tank job is a success when a few years down the road the salary cap bites and the high quality players you drafted walk away in FA? Tank again?

The ONLY thing we should consider a "success" is a SB win. Anything less is a failure. And if this tanking leads to a SB win then it is completely irrelevant what we had to sacrifice in terms of salary cap or players lost to FA afterwards. We haven't won a SB in 45 years!!

"cbrad wrote:

The ONLY thing we should consider a "success" is a SB win. Anything less is a failure.

C'mon. Just enjoy the goddamn game and relax. Life's too short to worry about things you have absolutely zero control over. Football is a lot more fun when you don't take it so seriously.

Everyone has a plan till they get punched in the mouth

"Carmen Cygni wrote:

C'mon. Just enjoy the goddamn game and relax. Life's too short to worry about things you have absolutely zero control over. Football is a lot more fun when you don't take it so seriously.

Dude.. I'm enjoying it and relaxed. For the first time in who knows how long I'm happy we're finally trying something to get a franchise QB. I'm also totally enjoying the game right now.. seeing Gase get trashed lol.

Dolphin Fans BEFORE August 2019: "Goddammit, the Dolphins have to quit talking half measures and rebuild!!!! I wish they'd quit playing the FA game and build through the draft!!!! Grier needs to quit being a pussy and take some gambles! I mean you see teams with multiple high draft picks every year and its never us!!!!"

Dolphin Fans AFTER August 2019: "Goddammit, the Dolphins are going too far with this rebuild!!!! I wish they'd play the FA game and bring in some talent!!!! Grier needs to quit being crazy! Who cares about draft picks!!!!"

21 picks over the course of the next two years. 13 for '20 and 9 for '21.

Boom. That's how you rebuild an NFL team.

Buckle up, buttercups, Flores and Grier are not going anywhere anytime in the next 4-5 years minimum.

Good stuff.

"Carmen Cygni wrote:

21 picks over the course of the next two years. 13 for '20 and 9 for '21.

Boom. That's how you rebuild an NFL team.

Buckle up, buttercups, Flores and Grier are not going anywhere anytime in the next 4-5 years minimum.

Good stuff.

Yep can’t wait for Grier to draft more of his “gems”

We have seen precisely one successful tank job in NFL history. Jimmy Johnson and the Cowboys circa 1990.

The suck for Luck was unsuccessful because Luck just wasn’t as good as advertised.

The jury is out for the current Browns, but the HC and GM responsible for putting the team into the dive were thrown out without a parachute, so for them at least the plan was a failure.

Jimmy Johnson had 2 advantages that helped his tank job. Firstly he had a much better appreciation if the value of draft picks than his competitors, an advantage we cannot replicate. Then he had a very good appreciation, better than his competitors, of the talent coming out of college from his experience as a college HC. Well for at least his first 2 years in Dallas. Again an advantage we lack.

But the history of JJ’s Cowboys also tells us that in the FA and salary cap era it can be a mistake to get too many good rookies in the same time period. The Ravens and Steelers show that in this era gaving a steady supply can be more effective than getting a draft bonanza in 1 or 2 years. You just can’t afford to keep all your cornerstone players together as they all become due for big contracts at the same time.

"Fin D wrote:

Dolphin Fans BEFORE August 2019: "Goddammit, the Dolphins have to quit talking half measures and rebuild!!!! I wish they'd quit playing the FA game and build through the draft!!!! Grier needs to quit being a ***** and take some gambles! I mean you see teams with multiple high draft picks every year and its never us!!!!"

Dolphin Fans AFTER August 2019: "Goddammit, the Dolphins are going too far with this rebuild!!!! I wish they'd play the FA game and bring in some talent!!!! Grier needs to quit being crazy! Who cares about draft picks!!!!"

Rebuild DOES NOT EQUAL tank. Rebuild means cut loose highly paid vets and go for youth. It does not mean trading away talented young players still on their rookie contract. That's not rebuilding, that's freaking scorched earth.

"Rick 1966 wrote:

Rebuild DOES NOT EQUAL tank. Rebuild means cut loose highly paid vets and go for youth. It does not mean trading away talented young players still on their rookie contract. That's not rebuilding, that's freaking scorched earth.

No it’s not.

Our FO did not shop Tunsil or Minkah. Teams called us and made us a great offer for Tunsil and Minkah wanted out.

You are acting as if Miami planned to get rid of these guys, when they didn’t.

"Pauly wrote:

We have seen precisely one successful tank job in NFL history. Jimmy Johnson and the Cowboys circa 1990.

The suck for Luck was unsuccessful because Luck just wasn’t as good as advertised.

The jury is out for the current Browns, but the HC and GM responsible for putting the team into the dive were thrown out without a parachute, so for them at least the plan was a failure.

Jimmy Johnson had 2 advantages that helped his tank job. Firstly he had a much better appreciation if the value of draft picks than his competitors, an advantage we cannot replicate. Then he had a very good appreciation, better than his competitors, of the talent coming out of college from his experience as a college HC. Well for at least his first 2 years in Dallas. Again an advantage we lack.

But the history of JJ’s Cowboys also tells us that in the FA and salary cap era it can be a mistake to get too many good rookies in the same time period. The Ravens and Steelers show that in this era gaving a steady supply can be more effective than getting a draft bonanza in 1 or 2 years. You just can’t afford to keep all your cornerstone players together as they all become due for big contracts at the same time.

It's disingenuous at best to call Suck for Luck unsuccessful because of injuries. Luck certainly made that team relevant as soon as he was drafted. It most definitely was a successful tank job.