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Flaws in Ireland's Evaluation of Players Process?

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Lee2000, Aug 20, 2012.

  1. Lee2000

    Lee2000 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I am asking from the perspective that there could be and probably are serious flaws in the Dolphin evaluation of talent process. What are they? And do any of you have inside perspective on this, like you CK or Boomer or Rafael, or anyone?
    With my limited knowledge as an armchair evaluator, I know something is wrong.
     
  2. Fin-Omenal

    Fin-Omenal Initiated

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    He's not very good at projecting Right Tackles.
     
  3. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Not much really, I believe Ck did a study about the amount of snaps that the various rounds play across the league and Ireland is right around average to slightly above average.

    For example if Clyde Gates busts, or John Jerry busts, that is not a good thing but an over view is 3rd and 4th rd picks typically don't do very much on average.
     
  4. Disgustipate

    Disgustipate Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    First of all, I don't think you can make an objective analysis of the talent acquisition 2008-present and call it bad. Not if you go look at what typical talent acquisition in this league looks like, from the standpoint of what a success is and how often that is achieved.

    I think there are good arguments that Parcells/Ireland have stuck too often to size/background prototypes that I don't know are properly supported at this point. I also think they've too often avoided signing short-term veteran players to fill holes.
     
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  5. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    That I agree with Dpate, the Parcells blueprint is outmoded a bit but as long as he was here that prototype was adhered to to often.

    A player who would have made perfect sense for us, Phil Hunt, a CFL passrusher, was passed over when we really could use him now, he is Dumervil's size so he was off of the menu.

    But if he hits on say Thigpen and one of the UDFA's, maybe two of them, that goes a long way to balancing the ledger. If Samadha and say Fuller come through, that counter balances Jerry and Gates.
     
  6. jw3102

    jw3102 season ticket holder

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    I happen to believe the Dolphins have one of the least talented teams in the entire NFL. Their record over the last few season certainly shows that they are sub 500 team, and I have seen nothing from Ireland since he took over total control of player personnel decisions which makes me think that he is the answer at the GM position.

    To me it all comes down to the teams won-loss record. I don't care that this is the first year under a new head coach. The fact is that this is Ireland's fifth year with the Dolphins and if the Dolphins don't have a winning season this year and make the playoffs, Ireland must go.
     
  7. Ohio Fanatic

    Ohio Fanatic Twuaddle or bust Club Member

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    Let's keep beating this dead horse then.

    While not even the staunchest defender of Ireland claims he is an elite talent evaluator, to follow up on Padre's post, I've been adamant that he's pretty much an average GM and not the bottom of the barrel scraping GM that many here claim he is, especially when you focus on ALL of his GM responsibilities and not just the draft. I also give him a little credit for some of the moves he didn't make, like overpaying for mediocre QB prospects to appease the fanbase - see Orton, Flynn.

    Would I like the GM for the Packers, Giants or Ravens? hell yes, but so would about 27 other teams .
     
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  8. Ohio Fanatic

    Ohio Fanatic Twuaddle or bust Club Member

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    I'd argue that our talent is bottom half or bottom third and piss-poor coaching by Sparano and Henning dropped us to one of the worst teams overall over the past few seasons.
    Disregarding a first year coach with a new rookie QB and new schemes on offense and defense is being stubbornly myopic.
    So, if the Dolphins go 9-7 (far-fetched at this point), but Tannehill looks good and Philbin gets this team playing well by season's end, you would still call for Ireland's head?
    ..if so, then you've already made up your mind regardless of what happens this season.
     
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  9. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I think you have to follow a philosophy of a BPA type draft strategy, when you stray from that to fill needs on the team you are less likely to land good football players..

    I understand in some cases, but I think we have reached for position players of need rather than best football player..

    That being said, at the end of the year we should know what we have in the talent evaluator Jeff Ireland..go from there.
     
  10. xphinfanx

    xphinfanx Stay strong my friends.

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    This.
     
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  11. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    I bet you could probably do a study on this and find that GMs who land a franchise QB look better and keep their jobs longer than GMs who land a good number of good players at other positions but don't land a franchise QB.

    Tannehill will determine Jeff Ireland's future in the NFL IMO.
     
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  12. jboogie

    jboogie The sky is NOT falling!

    They all come from good family backgrounds, what's the problem?
     
  13. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    The biggest problem with Jeff Ireland's drafting has been the lack of homeruns.

    He drafts a lot of guys with high floors but low ceilings. The only homerun he's picked among this group is Jake Long, and that was a #1 overall pick. Otherwise, you have a bunch of guys that you know are going to bounce around this league because of their physical stature and athletic ability (size, strength, speed, etc) but none of whom really make many plays.

    The best you can say about Jeff Ireland's talent picking is that he's not a walking disaster like we saw under Dave Wannstedt. But that's not really flattering.

    I personally think the second homerun he's going to hit is going to be Ryan Tannehill, but that will be by virtue of Ryan's playing the rock star quarterback position. When you draft a successful long term starter at that position, it's an automatic homerun. But there's something to be said for the line of thinking that it's not really a homerun unless it's a quarterback that separates himself from the pack a la Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger and Eli Manning.
     
  14. Lloyd Heilbrunn

    Lloyd Heilbrunn Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    In 5 years, he/they have not drafted anyone who has proven himself to be an offensive playmaker yet.


    So, all their eggs are in the Tannehill, Egnew, and Miller baskets.


    Half credit for undrafted Bess.....
     
  15. dolfan22

    dolfan22 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    Well number one overall has to be tempered imo , how may of our draft picks have exceeded their draft positions? The contributions provided re the draft slot .... I haven't reviewed this closely but I think it would/will be telling.

    Missing on a John Jerry at 3 or Clyde Gates at 4 isn't of itself bad but you expect to hit big on some of those to balance that , not sure Ireland proponents can point that out overall.
     
  16. LBsFinest

    LBsFinest Banned

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    that list is so depressing. I mean even the few good picks are looking shaky right now with Vontae getting benched and Langford no longer on the team.

    the move I'll never get over was Ireland agreeing to a trade down with the Chargers hours before the 2010 draft. That basically tells me that he didn't care who could be available at #12 in the 1st round, he just wanted to recoup a 2nd rounder after losing a couple in the Brandon Marshall trade. We coulda had Dez Bryant. or Earl Thomas. Or Jason Pierre-Paul. 3 guys who would have filled major needs back then. and you know what's even sadder? Lol we have the same damn needs today. Pass rusher, WR, safety. it's like we've come full circle.

    But hey, we got Odrick and Misi instead baby!!! It all worked out!!!
     
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  17. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    That does indeed go down as looking not so good.
     
  18. Bpk

    Bpk Premium Member Luxury Box

    He makes up for it with incredible free agent signings.
     
  19. jw3102

    jw3102 season ticket holder

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    If this team ends up 9-7, no matter how Tannehill looks, I will be happy to eat my words concerning Ireland. Of course if the Dolphins finish in last place in the AFC East and win 7 games or less, I expect you to join the, fire Ireland bangwagon.
     
  20. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    So are you satisfied with average?

    As for Ireland, I think he has average to good evaluation skills, but as a GM trying to put together a team has been below average.

    Relied to much on prototype comparisons (big players), avoids playmakers like the plague, struggles to find OL beyond the first round.

    I think a winning season with a good performance by Tannehill and he easily keeps the job. A 6-8 win season with Tannehill performing well throughout probably buys him at least one more to surround him with talent. Less than 6 wins and/or a poor year long showing from Tannehill would be a deathblow.

    QBs ultimately are the arbiters of a successful GM more often than not. Tannehill working out can give Ireland more life, but he cannot squander it like he has done - he needs to find homerun talent, especially at the playmaking spots.
     
  21. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    The other issue, and this comes from Parcellian thinking:

    -As long as they have size draft them
    -Skip playmaker positions in favor of blue collar positions..

    Of all of the ills of the franchise, doing this consistently has had a cascading ill effect

    John Jerry over Aaron Hernandez
    Koa Misi over Gronkowski, Graham, Moeaki

    Then, trading up for...larger players..ie..Daniel Thomas..then trading back from elite physical talent for..Odrick and Misi...

    Over and over again this has been the pattern, another effect is "if" we had taken Jimmy Graham, we would not have taken Egnew, our opportunity costs with Ireland have been on the wrong side of the ledger far to often.
     
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  22. jw3102

    jw3102 season ticket holder

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    Exactly who have been his incredible free agent signings in the last two years? Because according to all the Ireland supporters he was not responsible for any of the draft choices or free agent signings which took place while Parcells was still with the organization.

    Therefore Ireland can not be credited with the signing of Wake, Dansby, Bess, or any other free agent you feel have been incredible, which were signed under Parcells leadership. If there have been some incredible free agent signings since he took over from Parcells, please let all of us know who these players might be.
     
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  23. dolfan22

    dolfan22 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    This is it or should be , this year we see if a teaching staff gets more from a draft class than in previous years. The last excuse Ireland had perhaps?

    Really a sad sad list Chris posted , if Tanneyhill plays well and shows real promise perhaps that saves Ireland from being fired , honestly I don't know how I think Ross will react if we are a 6 or 7 win team . How some young players produce and indicate I guess will be the key .

    Honestly can anyone be pleased with that draft list? Or.... wonder why we are where we are?
     
  24. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Depends, adding a #1 pick Qb does tend to buy the FO a couple of years.

    As for the list, it would have been fine IF we had given long shot physical talent more snaps in the regular season, Sparano did not do that as he was on the hot seat and here we are..Wallace et al should have played last season to be ready this yr, or to be gone.

    This is why I'm not thrilled with Tannehill being a starter this yr but think we MUST develop young physically talented skill position players.
     
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  25. jw3102

    jw3102 season ticket holder

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    I think the problem with many of the Dolphin fans today is they are willing to settle for average, because that is what they have come to expect from this team since Don Shula was replaced by Jimmy Johnson. The reality is that in the 16 years since Shula left, the Dolphins have played 256 regular season games. Their record over this time period has been 128 wins and 128 losses. If this isn't mediocre, I don't know what else you would call it.

    Fans are so used to having a mediocre team that they actually think a 8-8 season is a good season. Personally I am sick and tired of mediocre and I expect a GM who can actually put a team on the field who can contend for a Super Bowl, not a team that is considered a success if they finish 500.

    I have been a fan since the teams inception in 1966. So I was around when the Dolphins had the best GM in the business, Joe Thomas. I saw the Dolphins go from an expansion team to a Super Bowl winner in six years. I also saw them remain a strong playoff contending team for many years during the Shula era. I just find it sad that so many on here are willing to settle for what many of them consider an adequate GM, in Ireland.

    Yet as long as fans are willing to settle for a mediocre team, Ireland is probably a perfect fit for the job. As for me, I am waiting for the Dolphins to hire the next Joe Thomas, and hopefully get rid of the mediocre, Ireland.
     
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  26. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    I don't know who Samadha is, but Shelby and Samuda are both very likely to make the team as UDFAs.
     
  27. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    I don't agree with that.
    The majority of players the past two years have been higher ceiling guys. Would you disagree?

    Tannehill
    Martin
    Vernon
    Egnew
    Miller
    Kadu
    Matthews
    Pouncey
    Thomas
    Gates
    Kearse
    Wilson

    That's 80%
     
  28. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    It depends on how you view the whole "floor/ceiling" issue. I saw Ryan Tannehill for example as more of a high floor/low ceiling guy than a low floor/high ceiling guy, because I view the position differently from most people.

    Take Mike Pouncey as another for instance. You're talking about a guy with a high ceiling...for a center. But the position itself is a high floor, low ceiling position when it comes to NFL value and getting the most bang for your buck. The position has almost zero bust rate when a guy is good enough to be taken that high. It was a very "safe" pick. As was Jake Long. And the trade that netted Jared Odrick & Koa Misi rather than having to pick a guy at #12 overall.

    Jeff Ireland is a very risk averse general manager when it comes to picking talent. I think that works IF you already have play makers on your roster and you're just trying to build around them. But the Dolphins don't, and they need to acquire those star type players, and I don't know that Ireland's approach will put those core players on the roster.
     
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  29. Bpk

    Bpk Premium Member Luxury Box

    His strength is not busting 1st round picks and finding great UDFAs.

    His weakness is the rest of the draft, stellar first rounders and free agency with established vets.

    Sound like a GM you want?
     
  30. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    But a "great" UDFA is a guy that starts and/or contributes. We're not talking "great" as in Pro Bowl caliber player at a key position.
     
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  31. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    I understand your frustration for trading down b/c I badly wanted Dez or Thomas, but it's misguided. The draft was Parcells baby, especially the top of it. The only first round exception that I know of since Parcells & Ireland have been together since 2005 was when there was a split in '05 [between Ireland & Parcells] over who Dallas's 1st pick should be---- DeMarcus Ware or Marcus Spears. Ireland persuaded Jerry Jones to take Ware (probably b/c Jeff felt Spears would be available at their 2nd first round pick, which he was, and Dallas got both players).

    It's been stated by Ireland that Parcells has always run the top of the draft, and with as much respect as I can say this, anyone who believes the draft from '08-'10 wasn't Parcells' baby is fooling himself. That's like trying to argue Tom Brady wasn't the Pats starting QB last year. Ireland obviously had input but it was significantly diminished b/c it simply wasn't his show. There's an abundance of articles written on the subject.

    The stark contract between the 2010 & '11 drafts compared to '08-'10 should serve as on obvious indication on how much control Parcells had over the first three drafts as well as the blueprint used for players drafted. The first 3 drafts compared to the last 2 look like they came from 2 TOTALLY DIFFERENT teams. I wonder why that is. Could it possibly be due to what everyone else around the country knows as fact, that this team was run by Bill Parcells?



    It's interesting that the Cowboys' 2010 board had Odrick & Misi rated as the 15th & 35th best players respectively.
     
  32. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    What is that even based on? By 2010, Bill Parcells had already taken a serious step backward in his handling of the organization. Especially after the Pat White disaster.

    And when has Jeff Ireland EVER commented on what portions of the draft Bill Parcells handled in Miami and what portions Jeff was allowed to handle? I'll give a hint. Starts with "n" and ends in "ever".
     
  33. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    I get what you're saying about Tannehill, but I'm not sure how it can be argued that he's not an example of a playmaker whose selection deviated greatly from the Parcells mold. Personally, I'd call Ryan a prime example of a high ceiling guy b/c his best days are ahead of him, and he has tons of room to develop, whereas IMO a John Beck type is an example of a high floor/low ceiling player.

    I'd also say that Ireland taking him at #8 [rather than trading down] when the much of the country thought Ryan was a reach defies the "risk averse" label.
    IMO, there are numerous other '10 & '11 picks that defy the label of "risk averse" such as:
    - trading up for an unpolished but talented Daniel Thomas who was previously a QB (high ceiling pick)
    - drafting a developmental, small school, speed guy in Gates (high ceiling pick)
    - using a 3rd on a developmental, pass catching Mizzou TE (high ceiling pick)
    - using a 3rd on DE whose production was less than his draft status (high ceiling pick)
    - Rishard Matthews was a high ceiling pick that Parcells might've seen as "risk averse"
    - Kadu seems like an athletic, upside potential type of pick rather than the typical, traditional, Parcells linebacker selection.
    - Kearse was a small school upside pick
    - Jimmy Wilson was a risk pick
    - IMO if we had reached for Mark Ingram in '10, that would've been a "risk averse" high floor/low ceiling type of pick. However, I can't see calling the twin of one of the NFL's best lineman as anything but a high ceiling/high floor type of pick. I see nothing wrong with a "safe pick" when the player looks like a potential Pro Bowler early in his career and you have a twin brother as a reference point. I'd make that pick over and over again.


    I wasn't a fan of our 1st 3 years of drafts. I hated that we ignored playmakers, and most of the picks that I cringed at like Pat Turner and all the other Parcells blueprint type players seem nothing like the type of players we're drafting now at those same positions. It's all different. WR, TE, RB, Oline, QB. Defense still share some in common but I think that's more b/c of Ireland & Parcells sharing a similar mindset when it comes to defense and what they look for in players, but offensively, Ireland seems to have veered off on a completely different path than his mentor. If he didn't, I'd be throwing rotten eggs at him till my arms fall off.
     
  34. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    The only way Ryan did not fit the Parcells mold was number of starts. And I could easily see Bill Parcells making an exception to that rule (remember, Parcells has always been open to making exceptions to his own rules) because Ryan had more starts in the system that he'll run and under the same coaches he'll have in the pros than any other quarterback, maybe ever in history. Otherwise Ryan Tannehill is like the very image of a Parcells quarterback.

    Again, to each tehir own on how they view ceilings/floors on the QB position.

    Jeff Ireland had NO choice. None. He had to take a quarterback. He didn't have a choice in the matter. His job and career were hanging by a thread.

    Again I think we're kind of manipulating the way to look at ceilings and floors if we're looking at Daniel Thomas as a "high ceiling" guy. He's huge, had carried a bell cow's load two years in a row in a major conference, and already had a lot of tape out there of him blocking in the backfield fantastically as well as catching the football. Yet the NFL was going to let him escape into the 3rd round because they felt something was missing. I personally view that the opposite way you do. That's not a "high ceiling/low floor" guy. It's the opposite. And that's how he's performing. You never have a problem giving him snaps on the football field right now because you know he can block and catch the ball and a he's very big so he won't get smushed like a bug. But that doesn't mean he's actually going to carry the football and make plays, either. He was a high floor, low ceiling guy coming out, and he's playing that way.

    I'll give you that one.

    Note he fits the mold, though, from a measurement standpoint. Important point. And Jeff Ireland did NOT ok the pick until he saw him live in the senior bowl blocking from an on the line position. Another important point. Not as boom/bust as you're thinking. Bill Parcells loved Jermaine Gresham, who was a very similar player coming out.

    I'll give you Olivier Vernon.

    I don't see this as a point in your favor. At all.

    Again, not sure I see how Josh Kaddu is a point in your favor, at all.

    Since when does Parcells never take guys from small schools?

    How so?

    It was what it was, an extremely safe low ceiling, high floor pick. There's a reason centers generally don't go 1st round. You can find them in the 6th and 7th round. Their job isn't that impactful.

    Pat Turner was a Jeff Ireland guy all the way and anyone who listened to Jeff Ireland go on the radio interview circuit in the wake of that Draft knows that.

    There have been some differences in 2011 and 2012, specifically 2012 when he was taking input from Mike Sherman and Joe Philbin...but not many overall. Same tendencies.
     
  35. LBsFinest

    LBsFinest Banned

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    didn't Armando tweet that Parcells ran the 08 draft and Ireland ran it in 09?
     
  36. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    You're right, Parcells took a step back, but he was still very much involved in scouting & drafting, which is why he stayed on until August 2010 rather than hanging it up immediately after the '09 season.

    Reference the below quotes:
    Here are some Sun Sentinel excerpts from an April 2010 interview with Ireland regarding the '10 draft.
    Jeff Ireland interview prior to the 2012 draft:
    Here's a telling article about Parcells and quote by Ireland prior to the 2007 draft [after Parcells left for the Jets], and I think it speaks volumes about how Miami drafted from '08-'10 compared to the drastic change we saw in '11 & '12:
    The above reference was when Parcells was just the head coach, not czar of football operations like he became in Miami.

    Keeping the above quote about Parcells in mind, look at the '09 Patrick Turner selection and Ireland's comments about the pick:
    "We were going to take that player regardless" sounds awfully much like a Parcells' "pet cat" pick..... and we already know Pat White was.

    I'm almost positive I recall reading a direct quote from him or a writer paraphrasing Ireland on the topic, and I believe it pertains to either the top of the draft or the first pick. I'll have to try and dig it up.

    There was a point where I blamed Ireland for all the picks I despised, but then I did a bunch of research and applied some simple logic to the findings and realized the onus was on Parcells. Even Jeff Darlington & Armando knew the '08-'10 drafts were Parcells' babies, and so was the team.
     
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  37. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    I never saw such, and I wouldn't believe Armando to say that when he stated prior to the '11 draft that this would finally be Ireland's time to draft on his own.

    Armando quotes:

    http://miamiherald.typepad.com/dolphins_in_depth/bill_parcells/


    I certainly don't have a problem with people having opinions, but I'd think there are times where finding the truth is more important than being subjective. I've been listing some factual stuff about Ireland, Parcells, and our past drafts, but it seems like the truth about the matter is less important to some fans than standing firm with their beliefs.
     
  38. LBsFinest

    LBsFinest Banned

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    Armando said Parcells told him Ireland ran the 09 draft.
     
  39. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    I'd have to see it, as well as the context it was in, to believe it b/c everything Armando has said since then would contradict this.
     
  40. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    Regarding Parcells' influence on Ireland:
    This is yet another example of Parcells being the mentor in charge and Ireland the protege.
     

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