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First time in my life I am not watching superbowl

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by pumpdogs, Jan 22, 2018.

  1. dont fumble

    dont fumble Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Great work, cbrad.
    Your last graph is the most interesting. Not because of the result but because of what I think some people see when watching the Pats.
    For those not familiar with it, it goes back to central limit theorem. That I found interesting because you can see while the data for a year is not significant (statistically) it still could be significant if you add those distributions up. And basically you can do the same thing for one season when looking at various things.
    Take the four catches/non-catches for example that were posted in the one tweet. All those plays were reviewed and all went the Pats way. Let’s just assume each call is basically a coin toss, then the chance of having all four calls going your way is 1 out of 8. Of course, that can happen.
    You can also play a Jags team that had 5 PI calls all year, and when you play them they have such a bad day at the office that they have 2 PIs on one day. (Well, you probably got lucky you didn't have to play them the week before thanks to the 1 out of 8 scenario mentioned before :wink2:)
    You can also have the penalty numbers the Pats have, even when you’re known for working on the edge (and above) of the rulebook.

    All these scenarios in itself are possible (statistically not significant, if certain mathematical models are used), but when you look at all these things in total, it probably becomes significant.
    And in a game of inches that equals Superbowl rings.
     
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  2. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Here's the same graph for win% (average team wins in a 16 game season). Can't defend NE here:

    [​IMG]

    For reference, Team ID's both here and in post #160 are:

    1: Atlanta
    2: Buffalo
    3: Carolina
    4: Chicago
    5: Cincinnati
    6: Cleveland
    7: Indianapolis
    8: Arizona
    9: Dallas
    10: Denver
    11: Detroit
    12: Green Bay
    13: Houston
    14: Jacksonville
    15: Kansas City
    16: Miami
    17: Minnesota
    18: New Orleans
    19: New England
    20: New York Giants
    21: New York Jets
    22: Tennessee
    23: Philadelphia
    24: Pittsburgh
    25: Oakland
    26: Los Angeles Rams
    27: Baltimore
    28: Los Angeles Chargers
    29: Seattle
    30: San Fransisco
    31: Tampa Bay
    32: Washington

    So Miami = #16 was the worst in 1st downs by penalty on offense in post #160.
     
  3. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    What bothered me the most about the Pats/Jags game was the three play scoring drive right before the half with two massive penalties. The first is where Gronk got laid out.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
    As you can see from the photo, the Jax player leads with his shoulder and forearm, which is a perfectly legal tackle. At regular speed in the video you do hear their helmets collide, but this clearly wasn't the helmet to helmet tackle that the league instantly claimed. This was a legal hit where two helmets clanked together in the course of the play.

    On CBrad's graph, this play is just one little blip...insignificant as you'd call it. But NE hadn't moved the ball the entire first half and they were resorting to things like flea-flickers just to try to spark something for the offense. Then you combine that call with the very next play- a deep pass that was also flagged in a highly questionable call....and you get the Patriots advancing 79 yards in about 6 seconds on two incompletions.

    [​IMG]

    "I just got to watch the tape," Bouye said. "I need to go look at the rulebook on [pass interference penalties], because you're telling me the receiver can have his hands on me the whole way down the field, but if I look for the ball and try to protect myself from being pushed, it's a flag?"

    I agree with the guy; he's being held onto the length of the field by the receiver's right arm. Breaking that contact is now a defensive penalty? That's pretty insane. And if you look closely...that's not a catchable ball by Cooks anyway....Bouye had great position and he was the only one who could possibly catch it. There's simply no way this is a flag on anyone but Cooks.

    Combine that with a questionable fumble recovery for the Jags that was denied and some blatant holding penalties that weren't noticed for the Patriots, and what's being statistically relevant as bias begins to change. That's the problem with statistics though- all penalties are treated equally like each of them produces the same outcome. But how many 80 yard, sub 10 second TD drives can you name that just happened to gain 78 of those yards via consecutive penalties? Instead of looking at it at a seasonal level, you really need to see it in those tight game-changing bursts to get a clear picture of bias.

    Another tidbit from the Jag's cornerback-

    "I was pissed because I seen [Danny] Amendola head-butt the hell out of [Tashaun Gipson] in front of the ref and you all don't call nothing?" cornerback A.J. Bouye said, per ESPN. "It don't make no sense man; it's a lot of stuff that don't make no sense."
     
    Last edited: Jan 27, 2018
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  4. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    You make good points in your post. Just want to point out that the problem with NOT looking at stats on a seasonal level is that you have no idea whether any bias you observe (or think you observe) in one game is specific to that one game or team, etc..

    That is, you have to compare how often something occurs across teams, or across seasons, to get an idea of whether there's really a bias or not after taking into account what's happening to other teams. Once again, the solution is for someone to record more detailed stats (e.g. penalties that gave a team a 1st down on a game-winning drive, etc..). The method used to analyze the data will remain the same.
     
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  5. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Sure, I just mean that the situation has to be somehow represented as well. For instance, a defense jumping offsides on 3rd and 1 may not change anything about the outcome of a game since it's likely that the offense would have grinded out that yard anyway. When you have a 50+ yard PI penalty that places the ball at the one yard line, that's obviously a lot different. But on your graph, they're both just a blip for an offensive first down.

    Statistically speaking, we know that franchise quarterbacks have seen favor from the refs over the years- they tend to get the benefit of the doubt just a little bit more than the Cleo Lemons of the world when it comes to roughing the passer, intentional grounding, etc. And it's possible that bias is subliminal- the refs don't even realize they tend to give Brady, Marino or Romo a little more leeway because they're expected to deliver excellence. What I'm more interested in is the degree to which that bias helps/hurts a team.

    By the way, I'm obviously as biased as can be in this conversation because I already had my mind made up about the Pats. I realize that and don't deny it for a second. But when you look at the "helmet to helmet" flags across the 2017 season, you see commentators saying that you can't lead with your head or you'll get the flag every single time. In Gronk's case, you see shoulders and arms all collide at the same time, and then the momentum smashes their helmets together. It's an unfortunate injury but that's not a penalty either...the defender did not lead with his head. Yet because it was Gronk, I think that flag comes out just a touch faster than if it was Fasano or another lesser known TE.

    On the PI play, you see Cooks grab the defender's arm at the 40 yard line....that's 38 straight yards and almost four seconds for a ref to see him holding. Yet somehow, they only notice it when the defender tries to break contact? That's a game-changing blunder RIGHT AFTER they made another game-changing blunder.

    You just don't see that very often....although it surprisingly happened to the Dolphins once this season (I can't remember which game, but we got two consecutive questionable PI penalties in the final minute of the game that set the opponent up in the red zone. Raiders game maybe?). The question is how much does that happen...back to back bad calls that advances the ball the length of the entire field and allows a team to score? NE had it happen at least twice this year- the Jax game and the Pitt regular season game.

    I don't watch NE football so I don't know about other games, but two instances seems like twice too much.
     
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  6. shadokp

    shadokp Active Member

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    Here is what Belicheck does. He works on every little detail to make sure the team gets every possible advantage possible. This included air out of balls, picking playbooks out of trash, spies around fields, cameras, etc etc. Every detail. Putting the temperature gauge so the other team could see it, pretending Brady has an injury, etc - all of this is probably not needed for the Pats to win because they are really good BUT they do this because it could give them a slight advantage. If someone told him that tying shoes in a special knot would increase player speed by .000000000000003% he would do it. Often the team comes up with a play that is bending the rule or is a misinterpretation of the rule and the league ends up having to change the rule the following year so no one else can take advantage.

    What I don't understand is if Belichick is that good of a coach why no one has ever figured him out. First off he has to be real good at cheating and it is compartmentalized so he doesn't take the blame. You would think someone would have figured out his skill and been able to combat it. I feel most of the time it is the other team that just panics. Belichick is in their head and so they begin to second guess themselves and make mistakes.

    I hope the ratings are way down this year and that the Pats are no longer the cash cow for the league. That would change the lack of penalties for them in a big hurry.
     
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