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First time in my life I am not watching superbowl

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by pumpdogs, Jan 22, 2018.

  1. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    Oh, it was Sunday's AFCCC game b/w the Pats & Jags.

    BTW, I'm midway thru the 2nd quarter and I have 3 holds uncalled by the Jags, one was at a critical moment on the their 2nd rushing TD. Like I said earlier, they let them play in trenches on both sides.

    I'll post the evidence when I'm finished.
     
  2. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    I've watched the entire playoffs and not about to stop at the Super Bowl.

    I like football in general. So while my Dolphins team is trash - I can at least watch two franchise go at it who are doin' it right. Not to mention Foles (who I had always hoped would get drafted by Miami) is a fellow Arizona grad.

    P.S. the Jags turtled. They got too conservative too quickly after getting up 14-3. It had that same ol' familiar look a game that got away from an inexperienced team in Foxboro.
     
    Last edited: Jan 23, 2018
  3. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    The refs were really letting them play in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Concerning the penalty discrepancy, I just finished watching the first half, and the Jaguars had 5 potential holding calls that were not penalized, and an additional holding penalty which does not show b/c it was declined by NE b/c the end result was a sack.

    #23 and # 52 with potential holding penalties.


    Watch #72 as the defender crosses his face, after the disengagement of the deuce block, he hooks him from behind, and rides his back.


    #72, again, climbs to the 2nd level, fails on the proper angle to reach, and tackles the defender from behind.


    Same incident, different play, with #72 that occurred in the redzone from clip 2.


    This holding by #74 was called but declined by NE, therefore it did not show on the final tally, due to the final result being a sack.



    And that was just the first half thus far. This narrative that NE had the refs in their back pocket is absurd. I would suggest taking those tin-foil
    hats, making them into a pipe, stuff it with some goods, and enjoy the SB.
     
    Last edited: Jan 24, 2018
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  4. shamegame13

    shamegame13 Madison & Surtain

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    Your not getting it.... Jax got called for 6 penalties, 98 yards....

    What the **** are you rambling on about?

    NE had one flag for ten yards.... go back to the Pats forums bro. Your making me sick now. Were you one of the paid off refs? Sure seems like it with your efforts to hunt down even more penalties on Jax meanwhile never looking at NE. Your the definition of what those refs were doing on Sunday. And seriously, I hate Pats fan trolling and you really do seem like a Pats fan dude.
     
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  5. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    You showed 5 plays.

    The first one there's no problems at all. not a penalty.

    The second one, the defender turns around while engaged with the lineman. Not a penalty.

    The next two are definitely penalties.

    The last one was a called penalty so i'm not sure why you used it.

    So, of the 5 plays, 2 were nothingburgers, 2 were legit missed calls and one was called. I don't know how any of that proves the point you were hoping to make.

    The argument is that the Pats had only 1 penalty called on them when they had clearly committed more than that.

    The true tin foil hat wearing, is by the people that believe in a game where the ref practically trips over himself to be the first person to congratulate the winning QB, that team had only one legit penalty.....when that team has been found guilty of cheating multiple times.

    The simple fact of the matter is that everyone felating Belichick, would think twice about playing him in any game/competition for real money, because they'd know he'd cheat.
     
    Last edited: Jan 24, 2018
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  6. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    Use some critical thought here. My point is was that the refs were letting them play in the trenches, and there could have been more penalties on Jax then what were called. There were no holding calls made with the exception of the ST play on NE.

    There's no conspiracy here with the Patriots and the refs. Of those 6 penalties, 3 were presnap, another was a helmet to helmet (which they've called consistently all year), one was a blatant DPI, and there was one questionable call on Bouye's DPI that I thought Bouye defended well. That's it one questionable call the entire game. It was a well officiated game overall.

    The clips above were sidework as I scouted NE's D like I do every week; nothing more.

    Pats Conspiracy Theories Are the NFL's UFOs
    http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...ce-pats-conspiracy-theories-are-the-nfls-ufos
     
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  7. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    Listen, my whole shtick here in this thread is that I find it ridiculous not to watch the SB if you consider yourself a football fan and it's beyond absurd to think that the Patriots are involved in some conspiracy with the NFL and the refs. Kick back, enjoy the game, and appreciate what you're watching because it's very doubtful we'll ever get to see such greatness and dominance ever again. It's a sight to behold.

    But by all means, pout if you want to, just don't get bent out of shape when the rest of the rational NFL fans are laughing at you.

    I'm finished here.
     
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  8. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    There is no pouting. There is just the truth. And that is, the Pats cheat and I'm tired of it. Period.
     
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  9. shamegame13

    shamegame13 Madison & Surtain

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    Sigh.....

    When the Patriots get investigated again in the near future, don’t get bent out of shape when we are all laughing at you.
     
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  10. Fame

    Fame Well-Known Member

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    I'm sorry but if this issue is in any way confusing for you, you don't hate the Pats anywhere near as much as you should.

    Go Birds.
     
  11. rackhound

    rackhound Well-Known Member

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    Bellicheck is a great coach.......he is also a cheater.....sadly this takes away from him being a great coach. He undoubtedly would still be successful without the cheating.....the cheating is still there and to me diminishes what he has has accomplished. The ref bias and blown calls are questionable, but calls are blown all the time, so while it looked bad cant be proven......that said, refs slapping Brady on his chest and smiling after there win look pretty bad in context. I hate the pats because I love the fins.......I think Brady is a damn good qb, and bellicheck is a damn good coach.......helped by cheating which makes them even better.
     
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  12. rackhound

    rackhound Well-Known Member

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    Not sure why the site put my response in your quote.......i also had to delete some dumb *** ufo nfl conspiracy quote that attached to this post.......where did that come from i wonder?
     
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  13. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    I missed that I guess. Which ref quit?
     
  14. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    Jeff Triplette, thank god.
     
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  15. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    His family must have received huge perks, or else he is completely delusional if he believes that. Yeah, one of the 5 most liberal blue states and one of the 3 most conservative and religious red states are similar. LMAO.
     
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  16. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    Was that the reason he quit though? Because of how refs are blatantly calling games to favor one team? He is one of the most complicit. He's sucked for years. There was some speculation I heard somewhere about how the company he works for does business with one of Kraft's subsidiaries. It was better for the Pats that the Titans won and KC lost, and while there were bad calls against both teams, Triplette helped to achieve that end.
     
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  17. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    Uncalled offensive holding allowed the play to stand. The most effective pass rush in the league all season does not draw even one offensive holding call all game long? Child please.
     
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  18. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Or there's an extra set of eyes on the field telling Brady who is open over the headset that stays on during the play.
     
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  19. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    [​IMG]
     
  20. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

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    I won't be watching either. A lot of fans won't. The league won't acknowledge it but the Patriots dominance is and will continue to be a significant reason for falling ratings.

    We can debate whether or not they actually cheat forever. (They definitely do). The fact is they have a perception of being a dirty team and they have the perception of getting away with it forever. And they are rewarded with championship appearance after championship appearance. Great for fans in Boston. The rest of NFL fans? Not so much.

    To be clear, I'm not saying Patriots dominance is the only reason or even the biggest reason. In my opinion I think over saturation is the biggest reason for ratings decline, with commercials / flow of game / officiating being right up there. But it is a reason. Especially for Dolphin fans, and other fans of AFC East teams. The sport just stops being interesting when it's a foregone conclusion that you're playing for 2nd place at best in your division / conference.

    The league will be in a very tough spot soon. The league not exposing the full depth of Spygate and sweeping most of it under the rug back in 2007 was due to the damage it would have done to the league. Superbowls would have been questioned, entire seasons with asterisks, etc. By allowing the Patriots to continue stealing signals using different methods has allowed the dominance we see today. Fully expose it, and do devastating damage to the NFL. Continue to allow it and the ensuing dominance it allows and fans continue to lose interest.

    What I think will eventually happen is other NFL teams will figure out how the Patriots are cheating, if they haven't already and duplicate it. It will be the only way to compete with them. Once this happens, parody will return to the NFL.

    Personally, the full depth of the Patriots cheating over the past decade and hall of fame denial for those involved will be the only thing that can rekindle my interest in the NFL and I have serious doubts as to whether that will happen anytime soon, but no doubts that the story will definitely come out eventually.
     
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  21. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Stop it.

    Doug Flutie accidentally outed the fact that Brady's helmet headset stays on through the whole play.
     
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  22. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    Place some critical thought into what you're saying here. Think about how the quickly passing windows open and close, and why what you're claiming there makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.
     
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  23. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    I just can't understand those who refuse to accept the fact that the Pats cheated when they were accused, caught, found guilty, and punished. Even if you remove "Deflategate" they have been caught cheating before that. The fact that NUMEROUS NFL officials, players, and coaches, have come forward, both anonymously and openly, and told about their cheating ways is not tin foil hat stuff. Everything from spying on a walk through, to stealing game plan notes from opponents locker rooms, to headset malfunctions at their stadium, to Flutie hearing Brady's radio staying on longer than allowed. These are not "unbelievable" things. These aren't "UFO's" and little grey men.

    Occam's Razor here, folks.

    Either a team that has been caught and accused of cheating NUMEROUS times is still cheating. (And they cheated because it was fun and didn't help them win anything, right? lol)

    OR

    The Pats, over the last 17 years, have been able to accomplish, with a former failed HC and a #199 picked QB who was a nobody (And even when he is out the next QB looks just as good), something no other NFL franchise has come close to. And even though there are literally 1000's of hours of tape, (legal tape), on what the Pats do and even though they get rid of "good" players who typically end up failing on other teams, no other team can replicate or duplicate what they do in the "Copy Cat league". Their coordinators go other places and...fail. Their players go to other places and...fail. RB's who play for the Pats have unbelievable fumble rates when there, but when they leave their fumble rates go right back up to around league average.

    Yeah, tin foil hat is all this is. Nothing to see here folks.
     
  24. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    And yet Brady NEVER misses the ONE window that's open? lol....Brady's isn't squeezing footballs into tight places. He's literally throwing to guys who are wide open 95% of the time.
     
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  25. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    That doesn't make sense at all. You're actually saying because things happen so fast, another set of eyes would be useless....talk about placing some critical thought.
     
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  26. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    That's exactly what I'm saying. By the time a receiver gets open, and someone supposedly notifies them so, that window is closed. Ever heard of a QB having to throw with anticipation?
     
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  27. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    You know what, I'm going to just have to let this craziness slide off into the toilet, flush it, and walk away. It's ignorant and reminds of the analogy of trying to play chess with a pigeon.
     
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  28. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    That is easily the most sycophantic thing I've ever heard.

    Think medium hard about what you're saying. If a QB can see the whole field and make a decision, why the hell would someone else scanning the field from a higher vantage point not help? I mean you can't be serious here.
     
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  29. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    The only thing ignorant is ignoring the cheating and touting them as if they don't cheat, all because you want to worship winning at all costs.
     
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  30. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

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    Except he knows where the open man is going to be before the play even happens most of the time because they know what defense is coming. Signal stealing is still the biggest weapon in the Patriots arsenal.
     
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  31. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    People were in an uproar over the refs changing the outcome of the game on questionable calls. And Triplett said, "Screw this, I'm quitting" about two hours after the game.
     
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  32. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    People have been complaining about him for years. Once he blinded Orlando Brown, if it were my call, he'd have never worked in the league again. Too bad the complaints didn't cause him to say screw this 15 yrs ago.
     
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  33. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    I was looking through the GSIS and noticed another glaring example of favoritism from the refs for the Pats.

    In 2017 the Pats gained 50 1st downs due to penalties. All their opponents together totaled 23 1st downs due to penalties. The league average for all teams is about 31 1st downs gained by penalties in a season. The Pats, obviously, had the most.
     
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  34. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Key missing piece of information there is the standard deviation. Without knowing that you can't really tell how (statistically speaking) unexpected 50 is on offense or 23 is on defense. You can get that data from pro-football-reference btw:
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2017/
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2017/opp.htm

    Using the conventional 2 standard deviations above or below the mean as the cut-off, you find that the mean number of 1st downs gained by penalty per team in 2017 was 31.875 with a standard deviation of 6.77 if we're talking offense and 7.05 if we're talking defense.

    There were only two teams that passed that 2 St. Dev. level on offense: Pats at 50 = 2.68 St. Dev. and Houston at 47 = 2.23 St. Dev. above the mean (and no anomalies for the worst offenses). On defense, there are no anomalies for the best defenses, including for the Pats with 23 1st downs allowed by penalty, and only one anomaly overall: the Jets giving up 50 = 2.57 St. Dev. above the mean.

    So it's only on offense that the Pats were possibly awarded "too many" penalties for 1st downs.


    Maybe more interesting is overall penalties, which you can get from those links too. The mean was 106.88 with a St. Dev. of 14.23 on offense and a St. Dev. of 8.9 on defense. That means there's greater variability in how officials penalize offenses than defenses. I'm not sure exactly why though (interesting stat if you think about it).

    In any case, Pats on both offense and defense are quite normal. On offense they are only 1.19 St. Dev. from the mean and on defense they are almost exactly at the mean with 111 penalties.
     
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  35. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    Thanks for the work, but in regards to your last part I think the timing of the penalties matters more than the number. Meaning, the Pats total penalties may not look abnormal, but when they gain more 1st downs from penalties by a fairly large margin in reference to the league average this just adds to their "fishy" nature. IMO
     
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  36. RGF

    RGF THE FINSTER Club Member

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    Are you implying the Pats dont cheat simply because they're so good, they dont have to. ?
     
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  37. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Without going through the whole analysis, here's how the Patriots offense ranks in 1st down penalties from 2001-2017: 4, 25, 13, 8, 15, 6, 6, 6, 1, 21, 13, 3, 1, 6, 18, 3, 1, with an average rank of 8.8.

    I guess I could calculate the probability of that by random variation alone, but just eyeballing it that doesn't look like there's anything statistically significant to it (would have to verify though.. can't right now.. bit busy lol).
     
  38. shamegame13

    shamegame13 Madison & Surtain

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    I have a sneaking suspicion that if you flipped the coin on it’s other side and Miami was the one that has been cheating and basically if Miami had all of NE’s history and the refs just gave us big time help in the AFCCG, you would be the first to say “Well, of course we won, Miami is getting all the help from the refs and we are probably still cheating”....


    You seem like this type of fan to its core. Go Enjoy NE’s “Greatness” lmao
     
  39. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    That sounds good and all, until you see NE players with a DE in a freaking arm bar right in front of the ref. "Letting them play in the trenches" is a lot different from "let the OT break the guy's arm on an illegal play".
     
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  40. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Dude.. I just did a statistical analysis of this and it turns out that ... well.. just read on lol.

    First let's look at the graph of all penalties committed by NE's offense, as well as all penalties committed by their defense, for all years 2001-2017 and compare them to the league average that year and the traditional cut-off point in statistics of 2 standard deviations above/below the mean (~95% region):
    [​IMG]
    That's 17 years right there and you'd expect ~5% of data points to lie beyond that gray area = 95% region by random variation alone. 5% of 17 years is 0.85 years, so basically one year outside of that gray region is fine, but if we see two or more (or a persistent bias above or below the black line = league average) then we should investigate further. Certainly there's no bias in defensive penalties above. One can see a bit of bias in offensive penalties but it turns out none of that is statistically significant (you'll see how I determined that later with the one case where we need to investigate further).

    OK.. so on to 1st downs due to penalties. Same type of graphs but where the top graph tells you how many 1st downs the offense received by penalty that year, and where the bottom graph tells you how many 1st downs the opponent received by penalty that year (so the same data but seen from point of view of the defense).
    [​IMG]
    Once again, nothing to worry about with the defense, but the offense is another story because there are at least 2 data points beyond (in this case above) 2 standard deviations from the mean. NE in 2009 and 2017 had more 1st downs by penalty than "consistent" through random variation alone.

    OK.. so how to investigate this further? You need to look at the distribution of the average number of 1st downs each team received on offense through a penalty from 2001-2017 and then see if in THAT distribution NE is beyond 2 standard deviations from that mean. If the answer is yes, a statistician would reject the hypothesis NE's 1st downs by penalty (on offense only) is consistent with random variation.

    Here's the graph (I broke out in laughter when I saw this):
    [​IMG]

    OK.. first of all the Team ID is my personal naming convention for all teams. I take whatever the 3-letter naming convention is for a franchise in pro-football-reference (e.g. NE = nwe) and turn that into a 7-digit number, which begins with a 1, then is followed by 3 pairs of 2 digit numbers each of which represents where in the alphabet the "n" "w" and "e" (for example) lie. So NE's team ID is 1142305. Sorting all team ID's from smallest (numerically) to largest and you get the order on the "Team ID" axis there. NE is at #19.

    Anyway, as you can see NE is one of two teams that are BARELY beyond 2 standard deviations from the mean. The other is team ID #8 which is crd = 1031804 = Arizona Cardinals. To compare the numbers, the mean number of 1st downs per year from 2001-2017 is 26.5582 and the standard deviation is 2.4402. So that +2 St. Dev. line lies at 31.4386. NE is at 31.6471 and the Cardinals are at 31.4706.

    Reason I laughed is because of how close that is. I mean.. think about it. The difference between statistical significance and no statistical significance at this point in time is only 0.21 1st downs by penalty per year with NE and it's an even lower 0.03 per year for the Cardinals. Had this analysis been done last year NE would not be on the list. But they are right now. Just keep in mind they're only barely past the boundary.
     
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