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Fins Path to the Playoffs

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by KeyFin, Dec 26, 2022.

  1. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    As crazy as it sounds, we currently still own the #7 seed and are in good shape to make the playoffs. Current odds are 58%. If we win both games, it's 100%. So we control our own destiny.

    To get in with one win, we need both the Jets and the Pats to also lose one of their last two.

    Week 17-
    Dolphins/Pats
    Jets/Seahawks
    Week 18-
    Dolphins/Jets
    Pats/Bills

    Then there's the Chargers (playing tonight); if they lost the last three and we go 1-1, we're in regardless of anything else. The Chargers play the Colts, Rams, and Broncos. This doesn't feel like much of a possibility, but we're rooting for the Colts tonight.

    Anyway, the playoffs are still completely alive for us at 10-7 or 9-8. Not sure I trust the Seahawks or the week 18 Bills (likely resting starters) getting that final win for us though.
     
  2. Destroyer

    Destroyer There for every play.

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    We had 80 percent chance last year at this time and how did that turn out? Dolphins will never make the playoffs with Ross and Grier in place. The Organization is one of the absolute worst in the league and to think otherwise at this point is crazy.
     
  3. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    It's crazy to think Miami still has a pretty good shot to get in despite playing like this the last four weeks.

    Something has to turn around and I think they clinch next week. As bad as Tua has been, he is going to be the better quarterback by alot in the next two games. The defense is going to have to make a play sooner than later and I think they do against Jones or Zappe, whoever it may be.

    The Jets aren't going to Seattle and winning with their quarterback situation.
     
    KeyFin likes this.
  4. Destroyer

    Destroyer There for every play.

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    I'll be back to this one on Sunday at around 4PM. Some people will never learn on this forum.
     
  5. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    :cry:
     
  6. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    Backing our way into the playoffs doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence. We haven’t been good on the road and I don’t see us winning in Buffalo, KC or Cincy on the road.

    On one hand making the playoffs is a step in the right direction but really the ultimate goal is to build a contender and I don’t see it on this roster.

    The bigger problem looking into the future is that we’ve leveraged our future to win now. I’m going to assume players will execute a lot better with another year of experience under McDaniel but we don’t have a first round pick this year, don’t have a lot of salary cap to fix glaring holes at LG, RT, CB and ILB. And we know Grier isn’t a great drafter. Not to mention this whole thing relies on Armstead and Tua staying healthy.
     
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  7. Pennington's Limp Arm

    Pennington's Limp Arm Well-Known Member

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    Mike White will return this week. That might be the nail in our coffin. Wilson is just that bad.

    I think we will bounce back a bit against the Patriots.

    But that Jets defense will eat us alive… And let’s be honest, everyone scores on us. So I have the Jets winning out.

    Hope I’m wrong.
     
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  8. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    White isn't good either, but he's better than Wilson right now, and the Jets defense doesn't get takeaways. This is not an easy game for them this week going to Seattle.
     
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  9. DonStrockRules

    DonStrockRules Member

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    They can buy a ticket and sit in the stands.
     
  10. Dan S

    Dan S Phins up!

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    I'm generally an optimistic guy and I try to avoid having a negative mentality, but I'm willing to bet we lose out and miss the playoffs.
     
  11. DonStrockRules

    DonStrockRules Member

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    'Ya can't fix Stupid' and Tua's 15 Wunderlic score keeps showing up irl every week now.
    Is it a 'confidence thing' or is it a 'mentally slow' thing? YES!
     
  12. DonStrockRules

    DonStrockRules Member

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  13. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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  14. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, if we win and Seattle wins, we're a lock at #7. That's the best case scenario.
     
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  15. DonStrockRules

    DonStrockRules Member

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    And with as much pure arm talent as he had, he survived his fair share of bad reads/bad decisions. I dont ever remember thinking Marino was smart. Montana was smart. Montana's quick-thinking and creativity had an influence on the 1984 Super Bowl.
    I love the Dolphins, in large part due to the Marino years...but I can admit that 'intelligence' wasn't Danny's sharpest tool.

    The modern NFL is Way more complicated. The amount of info that has to be loaded in a QB's head prior to each snap is incredible. The complexity of defenses and playbooks is Way beyond what it was in 1999 and before. Now, pre-snap reads and being able to audible into better options within 3 seconds of a snap can make or break games.
    Of Tua's 3 ints on Sunday, 2 of them were him being baited by the defense where a Smarter QB isnt.

    When you often Look Stupid, your low Wunderlic score is relevant.
     
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  16. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    Looks like it's going to be up to Bridgewater. I've heard here anyone can run this offense and be successful because it's basically just throwing to wide open receivers every play.
     
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  17. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    I'd still be very happy to make the playoffs, even if we sneak in without much confidence that we can win once we get there. Hey, if we do get in somehow we'll probably see Tua in an actual playoff game. I'd really like to see that experiment good or bad.
     
  18. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    It’s often easy for armchair quarterbacks to call another quarterback stupid when their only experience at quarterback is playing 2 completes is a first down and a 3 Mississippi rush.
     
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  19. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Even if we make the playoffs and lose in the wildcard round, that still a hell of an accomplishment for a first year head coach.
     
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  20. Hooligan

    Hooligan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    That would put him on par with Sparano and Gase who both took the team to the playoffs in their first year. That bar is not very high.
     
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  21. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    Yeah whatever, Marino was also incredibly physically gifted and had a cannon for an arm to make up for any mental deficiencies. Tua does not have those gifts.
     
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  22. Striking

    Striking Junior Member

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    We've lost 4 games by one score ( not counting the final 49er score). We could easily be on a winning streak. Not giving up yet even if Bridgewater is our starter.
     
  23. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I agree completely.

    But at the same time, I've always looked at it as a brand new 4-game season that absolutely anyone can win. We all know that Tua can get hot and absolutely light up a field with our receiving corps, and with that kind of offense you're never truly out of a game. Just ask Baltimore.

    If we see 'Salty Baltimore Tua' in the playoffs...guys, I still think we can win it all this year. It's not probable and I don't want to see the actual odds on that, but we've all seen it happen over the years. One team has a Cinderella post-season and wins it all.
     
  24. DonStrockRules

    DonStrockRules Member

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    Of course, it doesnt help that he made have been playing the 2nd half with a concussion.

    Hate to say it, but Tua being forced to retire now would probably save Miami cap space and be a net positive.
     
  25. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    If you’d like, I can go through the painstaking process of showing the records of every other first year head coach if you feel making the playoffs as a rookie head coach is merely mediocre.
     
  26. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    As much as I love Marino…as high of a pedestal as I put him, he never won us a championship. The Dolphins were nothing but Marino and the rest of the team, especially defense and running back was a mere afterthought.

    If setting quarterback records left and right is your idea of a good football team, then good luck, but if winning championships year after year is, then quarterback is just ONE position that requires a great player.

    This team is more to the latter than the former.
     
  27. Fireland

    Fireland Well-Known Member

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    Saving cap space if you mean they may have eventually given him a new contract then maybe but having more cap space next year isn't a positive when you are forced to give even more of it away to someone who probably doesn't even increase your teams upside
     
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  28. pumpdogs

    pumpdogs Well-Known Member

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    Well Tua couldn't do it the last 4 weeks with his 52 percent completion percentage.Hard to be worse than that
     
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  29. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    We currently do not have a good running game or a good defense, and we dont have a great QB either, so we are a lot worse off than we were with Marino. We also never had an "is Marino the problem?" discussion when he was playing.
     
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  30. DonStrockRules

    DonStrockRules Member

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    Youre too young, apparently, cuz they did exist in 98-99. 'Marino is done'...
    As fans, there was the 'Get Dan a ring' fatigue that was a drain.
     
  31. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    He also never had a running game back when QB’s didn’t wear skirts and you needed one and rarely had top 10 defenses. Look at the number of playoff games Brady has won without a top 10 defense, it’s eye opening.
     
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  32. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Of course we didn't. The internet didn't exist then as it does now but I guarantee you if it did during the 90's, this would be the discussion we would be having.

    Fans are eternal pessimists and always have to point fingers at who's to blame. Marino would have been no different.
     
  33. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    2021 Season 1st year head coaches.
    Urban Meyer, Jacksonville Jaguars, 3-14, fired
    Brandon Staley, LA Chargers, 9-8, missed playoffs
    Arthur Smith, Atlanta Falcons, 7-10
    Robert Salah, NY Jets, 4-13
    Dan Campbell, Detroit Lions, 3-13
    Nick Sirianni, Philadelphia Eagles, 9-8, lost wildcard playoff

    So last season, Sirianni was the only one that had success, but then again, he inherited a team that had made the playoffs every year since 2016, save the 20220 season.

    This season thus far...
    Brian Daboll, NY Giants, 8-6
    Matt Eberflus, Chicago Bears, 3-12
    Nathaniel Hackett, Denver Broncos, 4-11, Fired
    Mike Mcdaniel, Miami Dolphins, 8-7
    Kevin O'Connell, Minnesota, Vikings, 12-3

    This season, its Kevin O'Connell enjoying first year success after being hired as the Head Coach following the firing of both HC Mike Zimmer and GM Rick Speilman. At least Minnesota did right and completely cleaned house.

    But the point being, of the two seasons I've pointed out, most first year head coaches don't succeed and thus far, McDaniel is on the right side of the win/loss column.
     
  34. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    I became a dolphins fan in 92' so I do remember 98-99. There were some thinking Marino was washed up at that point, but I guarantee you no one was questioning Marino's greatness early in his career as they are with Tua. BTW if you asked most fans in 98-99 they would not have put the blame on Marino who was playing with a bunch of pracrice squad level recievers and had no running game as usual towards the end of his career.
     
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  35. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    Ths
    This post makes me ill. We should have been in already :(
     
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  36. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    Not many were saying Marino was the problem in the 90s, except maybe late 90s before he retired. Marino was still playing great for most of the 90s. The narrative as usual was that we could never get him a running game and defense.

    And there definitely wasn't any questioning of Marino's greatness early in his career as there is with Tua.
     
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  37. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    Jets with Wilson dont scare me. Patriots with Jones does not scare me. Jets with White scares me. Patriots with Zappe scares me. Both teams play with much greater energy when those QB play.
     
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  38. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    Jets with White will beat the Seahawks.
     
  39. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    You clearly have not watched White play.
     
  40. Hooligan

    Hooligan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I'm not a stat geek, I just looked at the last 15 years of Dolphins history and so, wasn't all that super impressed with making the play-offs in an unusually weak year in the AFC but, I get your point.
     

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