NFL Draft Scout has finally updated their Combine results to make them apples-to-apples with their past database entries. I'm not sure how many people are aware this problem was developing, but it was indeed a problem if you rely on their wonderful database of information as much as I do. Essentially what happened is ever since Dane Brugler took over for Chad Reuter, starting with last year's Combine, NFL Draft Scout started listing the "official" 40 times for Combine participants. It was getting REALLY annoying because this was not their practice in any prior year of the database's existence (1999 to 2011). In other years they use the 10 yard, 20 yard and 40 yard information either from the unofficial timers that you see on the NFL Network, or Rob Rang uses his extensive network of connections to get verified numbers from scouts that go down as actual-team records for what the guy runs. The drawback to using the "official" numbers are: A) They're not apples-to-apples with the data in the database from 1999 to 2011, B) They don't include 10 or 20 yard split data, and C) In my personal opinion the methodology that goes into developing an "official" time makes the numbers even more flawed than hand times and yes I realize everything that implies. Some time very recently, it looks like NFL Draft Scout updated their numbers. Death to the "official" numbers! What I particularly like is that the numbers are reflective of results that I got when I went back to the High Def video and re-did them using my own developed methodology of starting the tracker when the player's first foot leaves the ground. This is part of why I know how ****ed up the "official" numbers can be. The majority of the time, what I get is going to be EERILY similar to what the unofficial hand time number is. And I mean within a hundredth of a second, or maybe two hundredths. Scary close. Sometimes it's not. But the "official" number comparisons with what I get are all over the place. In this case for Tavon Austin and Cordarrelle Patterson I got a number in the very high 4.2's to very low 4.3's for Austin, and I got a number in the low 4.3's for Cordarrelle Patterson. I don't have the spreadsheet on me but I want to say like 4.29 for Austin and 4.31 or 4.33 for Patterson. Very close, but not quite the same, Austin clearly faster. But the thing to note is that I got a 4.21 for Marquise Goodwin, SIGNIFICANTLY faster than Austin, even though I believe even the unofficial timers had them with about the same number. So I look at NFL Draft Scout and I see Goodwin with a 4.21, Austin with a 4.28, and Patterson with a 4.33. These are neither the "unofficial" nor "official" numbers you saw during Combine coverage. They are no doubt numbers that came from actual scouts and actual teams, the numbers that these teams feed into their own databases for the players. That's the value of Rob Rang's connections. And you know who came in with a 4.46 now, after the adjustment? Stedman Bailey. You go boy. Not saying anything just changed about his draft stock. I'm just glad the numbers are more accurate now.
man i want austin so baaaaad, its not quite boom or bust for me, but i will be really disappointed if it's not austin, i know its somehow still very unlikely he is the pick, but a man can still dream, happy for stedman bailey, who is it for you CK, if bailey or ryan swope would be availabe in the 2nd round or is it more goodwin for you, doubt they would be all available in the 3rd.
I love Goodwin. I love Bailey. Since Miami needs a slot receiver, that becomes a tougher question than it should be. If I'm looking at total long term value, I have to go with Bailey, for sure. He can play any of the positions. Not saying Goodwin can't but you have a lot more to teach him before he's more than a RAC guy who will continue to have plenty of room to catch passes underneath and run with them simply because he's so fast he forces everyone to back up. I do fully believe Marquise Goodwin will be the fastest man in the entire NFL the moment he's drafted. There's something to be said for that. But I go with Bailey first. Swope doesn't figure into that debate, for me.
YESSSS!!! First of all, I value 10 yard split times over 40's because it is WAY more useful across more positions! 40 times are mainly CB, WR FS. For DL, OL, even RBs and TEs, LBs I want that 10 yard split, for gosh sakes!!! Okay. I'm officially excited. And I KNEW Stedman was faster than that. I mean he had a 60 yarder where no one could catch him from behind. I Love Bailey... but honestly, I'd rather his draft stock NOT climb so we can take him. I will be an instant fan of any team smart enough to select that kid. OKay, gotta go look at 10 yard splits for pass rushers.
keep an eye pass rusher's 3 cone drills as it shows flexibility to bend the edge at speed Let me expand on that a bit, don't pay much attention to the times, pay attention to how they move through the drill, in real life they are wearing pads and helmets. Look for smoothness and change of direction in their hips Then there are the types of passrushing styles, speed/power. leverage/stiff back (usually seen on taller De's), and power/bull Think -Wake -JT -Joey Porter/Matt Roth In terms of style
10 yard splits would matter to me if I could guarantee their accuracy. Variance for a 10 yard split is about a third of what it is for a 40 yard dash. If a tenth of a second difference is significant in a 40 yard dash, then a 0.03 second difference in a 10 yard split is significant. Yet, measurement error can often account for between 0.05 and 0.08 seconds difference in a 40 yard dash. I've seen that first hand. The bulk of that measurement error comes at the beginning of the run, not the end...especially when you're looking at unofficial Combine numbers which use a human to start the timer and lasers to click off the 10, 20 and 40 yard splits. Because of measurement error, I barely look at 10 yard splits. Wake me up when they have all runners reacting to a gun instead of timers trying to react to the player.
Typically I find ESPN's Sports Science segments pretty campy and fraught with a lack of context, but during one of the segments (with Dion Jordan) they measured both the angle that a pass rusher could bend getting around the edge and their speed/ time doing so. I wish they'd release those results for every pass rusher measured because I think that could be a really valuable thing to look at when determining exactly what you're talking about, stiffness vs. fluidity. If I see that a prospect that can bend and do so quickly through a specialized test like that, you're way less likely to draft a guy high who's stiff coming around the edge (Gholston, etc). Here's the clip from Sports Science: http://youtu.be/LkyGYvKz30g?t=1m15s I don't necessarily understand the need for running everywhere and spinning, but if you were to just line up a DE/OLB in a normal 3pt stance and have them take the test to measure their bend, the results could be really interesting.
I interesting side note to that, Ansah was the 4th highest rated all time on their measurements at 91. something. Also should point out that a spin move is somewhat rarely used as it is to easy for the Tackle to simply straight jacket the defender, and thought there reason given "..oh he has 3.6% body fat.." was also the wrong conclusion, it is his musculature being able to propel his moves, you can see DT's with huge bodyfat percentages who are quick as well. Do agree, that sort of hip/shoulder/ankle measurement is a good way to see what someone actually "is". Stiff can work around the edge btw, BUT you also need long arms to leverage the tackle and move around them. [video=youtube;DkKRLDkjwDU]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DkKRLDkjwDU[/video] A good just basic primer on what a good passrusher does to make them successful in the NFL I do think it funny I've yet to see any draftnik type use the term "club rip" in describing a prospects skillset..
