1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

Federal Reserve to meet tomorrow amidst worsening economy

Discussion in 'Economics and Financials' started by padre31, Aug 9, 2010.

  1. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

    99,465
    37,345
    0
    Nov 22, 2007
    inching to 100k posts
    http://wallstreet.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2010/08/09/fed-paper-sees-recession-odds-rising/

    Exactly, to me they finally are adjusting their metrics for some of the realities of the current US Economy, the Yield Curve is not providing expansion across the economy.

    A "relapse" is a nice term for "double dip recession".
     
    gafinfan likes this.
  2. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    As well.....

    I think we need to look at the overall economy as it affects different people....for example, one could argue that the Middle Class is and has been in a hard recession for quite awhile with almost no end in sight. Those in the upper echelons probably don't feel the weakness in the economy like the middle class.

    I hate to throw politics back into this.....but when is someone gonna look out for the middle class? With out a manufacturing base, I cant see how the middle class wont eventually disappear, if it hasn't already.
     
  3. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

    99,465
    37,345
    0
    Nov 22, 2007
    inching to 100k posts
    Well, yes and no, meaning the Middle Class on the whole migrated mostly into the upper income brackets, the problem is the Lower Class did not then migrate into the Middle Class, that progress was stopped as it were.

    One of a host of reasons for that is Globalism has introduced cut throat pricing competition (with of course the lower class only benefitting on the periphery) so the classic American pattern of Father works 40 yrs at factory, children go to college and move into upper income bracket is now a fading memory.

    Which means the path to the middle class now is much harder, one can start a business for example, but that is fraught with inherent risks, work several jobs, but that reduces quality of life.

    And if Illegal Immigration is looked at solely as a Economic Issue, the effect of introducing a huge pool of labor into any market means wages will either remain stagnant, or recede, as labor has no power to ask for and receive higher wages as the pool of workers is ever expanding.

    I do happen to think not all is gloom and doom, to me I see an emerging Artisan Class and what I'd call an Efficiency Market, Artisans in the sense that they produce custom items that are more desirable due to particular craftsmanship, and Efficiency in a consciousness of savings being as valuable as earning income.

    That can extend to everything from more efficient appliances, to solar panels to what have you, perhaps the old saw of "a penny saved is a penny earned" is coming back into vogue?

    That would seem contradictory with a emerging Artisan Class, that is a surface view as Consumerism dies hard, when people perceive they are sacrificing to "save" they also tend to reward themselves with a item of particular perceived value.

    For example, a real handcrafted Walnut Office Desk instead of the press board crap that is peddled at Wally World or Ikea..
     
  4. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    Here are some statistics I found on a pretty informative Blog, entitled "Save The Middle Class".....now from our great football discussions....we know anyone can find a statistic to support whatever particular argument they choose to side with. There is some evidence here that is pretty discouraging, IMO.

    http://www.savethemiddleclass.com/

    • 83 percent of all U.S. stocks are in the hands of 1 percent of the people.
    • 61 percent of Americans "always or usually" live paycheck to paycheck, which was up from 49 percent in 2008 and 43 percent in 2007.
    • 66 percent of the income growth between 2001 and 2007 went to the top 1% of all Americans.
    • 36 percent of Americans say that they don't contribute anything to retirement savings.
    • A staggering 43 percent of Americans have less than $10,000 saved up for retirement.
    • 24 percent of American workers say that they have postponed their planned retirement age in the past year.
    • Over 1.4 million Americans filed for personal bankruptcy in 2009, which represented a 32 percent increase over 2008.
    • Only the top 5 percent of U.S. households have earned enough additional income to match the rise in housing costs since 1975.
    • For the first time in U.S. history, banks own a greater share of residential housing net worth in the United States than all individual Americans put together.
    • In 1950, the ratio of the average executive's paycheck to the average worker's paycheck was about 30 to 1. Since the year 2000, that ratio has exploded to between 300 to 500 to one.
    • As of 2007, the bottom 80 percent of American households held about 7% of the liquid financial assets.
    • The bottom 50 percent of income earners in the United States now collectively own less than 1 percent of the nation’s wealth.
    • Average Wall Street bonuses for 2009 were up 17 percent when compared with 2008.
    • In the United States, the average federal worker now earns 60% MORE than the average worker in the private sector.
    • The top 1 percent of U.S. households own nearly twice as much of America's corporate wealth as they did just 15 years ago.
    • In America today, the average time needed to find a job has risen to a record 35.2 weeks.
    • More than 40 percent of Americans who actually are employed are now working in service jobs, which are often very low paying.
    • or the first time in U.S. history, more than 40 million Americans are on food stamps, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture projects that number will go up to 43 million Americans in 2011.
    • This is what American workers now must compete against: in China a garment worker makes approximately 86 cents an hour and in Cambodia a garment worker makes approximately 22 cents an hour.
    • Approximately 21 percent of all children in the United States are living below the poverty line in 2010 - the highest rate in 20 years.
    • Despite the financial crisis, the number of millionaires in the United States rose a whopping 16 percent to 7.8 million in 2009.
    • The top 10 percent of Americans now earn around 50 percent of our national income.


    What Id like to know...is what action can the Feds take that will have some impact on the above numbers.

    India's industrial production grew 17.6 percent in April. When is this government going to start creating an incentive for growing jobs here in the US? Obama has done very little to stem the tide....although I have heard he is planning an major "marketing" offensive against this very thing next week. But its all lip talk. I honestly dont see him doing anything different then the last President to bring jobs to the US.
     
  5. unluckyluciano

    unluckyluciano For My Hero JetsSuck

    53,351
    23,020
    0
    Dec 7, 2007
    I know this backs up what you've been saying but did you look at the paper? Even with them throwing out the curve its only close to 50% meaning it can still go either way.
     
  6. my 2 cents

    my 2 cents Well-Known Member

    3,977
    2,097
    113
    Dec 10, 2007
    NC Mountains
    Sure it can ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,but there are dynamics never seen before and that is the debt level of the USA....and you cannot account for that variable in a statistical model....and I would surmise that this dynamic is not at all supportive of the economy "going the other way"......some will disagree and say spending is the only way to improve the economy but that is short term thinking, cause the G-men NEVER spend less than they are allocated...............IMHO.
     
  7. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

    99,465
    37,345
    0
    Nov 22, 2007
    inching to 100k posts
    Well Lucky, look at it this way, is there, or will there be, any outside action that will improve things in that 18 month time frame they speak of?

    And therein is the problem, TARP/Stimulus et al have been expended, and the trend is still downwards, albeit a slower downwards spiral however there is nothing on the horizon that will change that trajectory.

    I've read/heard that the political side of the economy was considering a massive forgiveness of underwater mortgages initiative, meaning if a homeowner has a mortgage for 500k and the home is only worth 300k, the Gov will forgive that 200k difference.

    That would be ontop of Freddie Mac asking for billions more to bailout their current operations, which illustrates the utter inefficiency of .Gov intervention into the Economy.
     
  8. my 2 cents

    my 2 cents Well-Known Member

    3,977
    2,097
    113
    Dec 10, 2007
    NC Mountains
    I personally do not think the Artisian class is likely or large enough to influence the economy a great deal and all the social pressures are away from "gaudy" for those of us in upper income but not "Trump" or "Stephen Ross" categories........

    I am a practical guy and this economy really has been great for me...I sold my original business at an inflated high in 2001 when revenue factored business sales peaked, deferred escrow payments while my 7 year non compete was up, and deferred some income indefinetly in some creative ways....now I have started a second business taking advantage of the opportunities current economic policies have created.........and we are doing great...gotta a wormy chestnut desk BTW (which is a pain in the *** BTW cause it is covered in glass because of the holes and I spill crap).....so all of this loss of American products and manufacturing base is GREAT for me.....I come here and expouse my views on what would make AMERICA a better economy IMHO. I do it because I care about the country not my own financial standing.....because I will adjust my business and position it to take advantage of a booming US economy and manufacturing sector if policy dictated a change...or I will take advantage of the system created that benefits other countries..........

    I am in the chemical/pigment business...right now.....we import from China, Vietnam, Indonesia, basically Asia, and India and still keep an open line of communication with both Eastern and Western Europe......raw material supplies in the USA cannot compete with imports from those area on base molecules (which are high employment blue collar jobs in the manufacturing sector)....in the USA they are making smaller volume niche and value added and specialty molecules, high tech and high margin...therfore high cost to high income individuals...the low income earners are left out entirely both from a purchasing and job creation perspective....

    Now specialties are going off shore as quality standards improve in droves and international standardization of quality programs become more normal and accepted by those good ole foklks at customs, EPA, FDA, ITC, etc....hence our recently opening a China and India sales office......like I said, use the rules and economic policies to your/our advantage ............... and the added advantage of being close to a rapidly changing part of the world from a production based economy to a consumption based economy............and things are not that different in the many industries I see....

    but the bottom line is whether or not their is an Artesian class,,,, or whether or not I am part of it, does not matter on the grander scheme. It simply is not big enough to effect the ecomomy whether I have wormy chestnut desk or a press board made in China model from the local Walmart (quite frankly sociatial pressures make me feel pretencious for even having the ability to buy this desk, so I would prefer a Walmart China model...after all those of us that are in the upper brackets paying for all those unemployment benefit extensions are mean bad people from an economic policy perspective) ................ .I do not think overall employment is going to be effected if I have a nice desk, and there simply are not enough of us in the fortunate enough situation economically to be able to buy specialty products or home grown veggies.........IMHO.
     
  9. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

    99,465
    37,345
    0
    Nov 22, 2007
    inching to 100k posts
    I have to disagree m.02, and here is why:

    Asheville is a good model of the Artisan Economy, once a somewhat stodgy manufacturing hub has changed into a craft beer and artsey sort of place.

    In 15 yrs Asheville has changed from Mill Town to "Beer City USA".

    As for Globalism's exporting of higher paying jobs, that will come to a head one way or another, keep in mind the current political leadership came into power more or less due to Globalism's effect on large swaths of the US, the more exporting of employment, the further down the path of Socialism the US will go.

    Or a overwhelming protectionism, Globalism's political problem is the "losers" will always outnumber the "winners", and in 08, they voted. In places such as China, or India, a political economy means nothing, in the US it could lead to wild swings in policy one way or another.

    As for your desk..if not a desk, there will be something else, the Wealthy never change..they (you) enjoy your luxuries..

    As for homegrown veggies...substitute "homegrown" with "organic non genetically modified no pesticide" and consumers really will pay a 1.50 for a tomato..:D
     
    my 2 cents likes this.
  10. my 2 cents

    my 2 cents Well-Known Member

    3,977
    2,097
    113
    Dec 10, 2007
    NC Mountains
    Oh I agree globalism and current policy will come to a head, I have no doubt.....I simply think globalism has effected policy a lot less than policy has effected globalism...........not to go POFO (I am unwelcome there) ...but the current more socialist leaning policy has been generally unpopular and gaining negative momentum so IMHO whatever globalist policy economically has been born it is being generally rejected by the people (the administration however has not adjusted the policy to the will of the people, so we will have another election, the beauty of the system)............so what happens from a economic standpoint as a result of a change in policy?

    I see no good effect.....protectionism from those that now own our debt is dangerous and a bad idea when those you seek a protectionist economic policy from.....OWN you and manufacturing sector jobs are gone, Politicians are beholden to unions, there is no tort reform in our top current growth industry, taxes rate increases for small business (expiration of tax decreases) cannot really been seen as a revenue generator in a recession, R&D credits are being susended.......that is awful lot to put on an economy who's growth is now going to depend on growing kudzu for fuel or harvesting of cow farts as a long term employment growth sector........and now I think I will go have an organic mater samitch.......................
     
    Last edited: Aug 10, 2010
  11. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

    99,465
    37,345
    0
    Nov 22, 2007
    inching to 100k posts
    Remains to be seen My.02, what changes are in store in the political economy, as it is an uknown what level of economic discontent will translate into voters at polling stations.

    As an economic issue, I do think expectations play such a huge part in a consumer economy that a change in occupancy may/could boost confidence and expectations.



    1-I think repudiation or inflation is the only manner those debts will ever be paid, the question is whether to do so now, or go even deeper into debt only to do either later.

    2. No idea what you are speaking of on the manufacturing portion of your post.

    3. Agree, raising taxes on businesses is no way to stimulate an economy, unless of course such revenues paid down debt which would restore some confidence.

    4. Cow Farts? Cap and Tax is quite dead.

    6. As for kudzu, Bro there are a myriad of things that can be made from that stuff, every thing from jelly to fuel..and it grows everywhere and just announced that it is seceeding from the State of Georgia to form "Kudzu land"

    7. 'mater sammy with salt and pepper and a bit of Mayo..yummy.

    They real point isn't that "kudzu fuel" is some sort of widespread panacea, it is the dedication to efficiency in finding profitible usages for kudzu that is.

    Americans have never had to learn how to create savings by productively trimming expenses since the FDR's Depression, not on any sort of widespread scale.
     
  12. my 2 cents

    my 2 cents Well-Known Member

    3,977
    2,097
    113
    Dec 10, 2007
    NC Mountains
    Don't disagree with much...my point on the cow flatulance is that good manufacturing jobs are being expored due to policy daily while politicians target long shot (IMHO) sources of significant job creating industries ...... and I cannot see myself eating kudzu jelly! I agree on the effeciency paradyme but "efficency" should not be semantics for "wow this feels and sounds really groovy dude".....
     
  13. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

    99,465
    37,345
    0
    Nov 22, 2007
    inching to 100k posts
    -Kudzu jelly beats no jelly at all..:D

    -My thought is what we will see is increased Efficiency while maintaining lifestyle, in effect one is taking money back from the local Utility Company and putting it into one's pocket via more efficient usage of energy.

    Imho, that is one of the last real hopes for the Economy, and one of the last avenues where individuals can effect their own financial circumstances.

    300 million homes in the US, that is a huge market to carve out monies via efficiency improvements and it is a huge untapped pool in my view.

    The problem is, right now that is a top down view which rarely works in the US, now if that Ethic were to emerge among "We the People" such an effort would make headway.

    But nah dude, legalizing marhuana would have little impact, neither will so called "electric cars" or "improving mass transit" as the same problem emerges, people have a lifestyle they like and that is nearly impossible to change.

    I do also think that overbroad Environmental Regulations are a knife to the throat of both businesses and the economy, when a nuclear power plant cannot be built do to such Regs, even when it is clearly needed, the nose of the airplane starts pointing even further downwards.

    An healthy economy should not allow a small group to hijack it so easily.
     
  14. unluckyluciano

    unluckyluciano For My Hero JetsSuck

    53,351
    23,020
    0
    Dec 7, 2007
    You are basing your decision on something you can't calculate bro. That means it can go either way really.
     
  15. unluckyluciano

    unluckyluciano For My Hero JetsSuck

    53,351
    23,020
    0
    Dec 7, 2007
    And yet you will still have almost as much chance as it not going into a double dip recession as it going into a double dip recession. Its actually a good paper if you read it and isn't nearly the harbringer of doom people are going to make it out to be.
     
  16. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

    99,465
    37,345
    0
    Nov 22, 2007
    inching to 100k posts
    Lucky, the Fed is going to be forced to engage in even more Monetization of Federal Debt, meaning they are buying their own debts just to inject more dollars into the economy.

    Recall peak to trough to recovery historically has taken 18 months..the current efforts began in September of...08
     
  17. unluckyluciano

    unluckyluciano For My Hero JetsSuck

    53,351
    23,020
    0
    Dec 7, 2007
    I realize that, but this paper has nothing to do with that. And you are still taking a little bit above "as likely" chance, to say it will occur.
     
  18. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

    99,465
    37,345
    0
    Nov 22, 2007
    inching to 100k posts
    Alright Lucky, one wishes to hope against hope that magically, things will turn around, despite all evidence to the contrary, I'll not try to dissuade you.

    The US economy has not turned around via Obamanomics, as predicted years ago, yet one will believe, what one will believe.
     
  19. my 2 cents

    my 2 cents Well-Known Member

    3,977
    2,097
    113
    Dec 10, 2007
    NC Mountains
    Sure it can go either way. Everyone is entitled to their own opinion and certainly anything is possible at this point but I make my business decisions based on how current policy will effect my business and how can I best position my business. I interact with many industries and businesses and for the most poart we are positioning ourselves to varying degrees in the same posture.....nominate best returns through cost cutting to prepare for tax increases, very little non amortized debt loads, right size your business in order to avoid healthcare penalties, and focus on return rather than market share due to tight credit lines and dissolution of tax credits for things like R&D, T&E, etc. and protect against the ongoing individual retro SS tax for LLC's.....to many it is no brainer type stuff.

    And based on how I see the business climate is how I will position myself best not only to weather a down economy and protect against loss but to maxamize return individually for my family going forward.

    But sure everyone is entitled to believe what they want to believe and react to policy how they want to individually...personally for life of me I cannot see how current policy is NOT going to negativly impact the economy but to each his own I guess, and I guess it still could go either way......
     
  20. unluckyluciano

    unluckyluciano For My Hero JetsSuck

    53,351
    23,020
    0
    Dec 7, 2007
    Funny coming from a guy who gripes about modeling and then accepts it when it backs what he believes. I would say you would hope against all that you are proven right. You will believe what you will believe because god forbid you are wrong correct? I've never said obamanomics are right, it does get frustrating though watching people post just articles that would help their stance, and nothing else. But I don't believe the sky is falling so I must believe in obamanomics right? Thats laughable.
     
  21. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

    99,465
    37,345
    0
    Nov 22, 2007
    inching to 100k posts
    It's not the modeling as .Gov statisticians are notoriously unreliable.

    What troubles me is, nothing has worked, from the absurd notion that a 1 trillion dollar spending increase by the .Gov will mean a 100 billion dollar savings 20 yrs from now, to private sector job creation via the "Stimulus".

    And I have no need to "hope" that I'm proven right as it does not particularly matter if "I" am correct, or incorrect, my point is, Obamanomics...has not worked, not in any objective sense of "working".

    The sad thing is, that means America is that much further away from a Broad Recovery, only now we are deeper in debt, but the same problems still exist.
     
  22. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    39,161
    21,798
    113
    Nov 29, 2007
    San Diego
    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Fed-Citing-Slowdown-to-Buy-US-nytimes-2936632095.html?x=0&.v=1

     
  23. unluckyluciano

    unluckyluciano For My Hero JetsSuck

    53,351
    23,020
    0
    Dec 7, 2007
    I've never heard anything just against government statisticians. As for them having an ulterior motive very view would not.
    I'm not sure what you consider working. If you thing things could be better right now that is fair, but asserting it is not what you think it is, is not proof of it not working, especially given the unforseeable problems in asia and europe. One can not discount that slowing down the recovery.
     
  24. my 2 cents

    my 2 cents Well-Known Member

    3,977
    2,097
    113
    Dec 10, 2007
    NC Mountains
    9.6 or whatever unemployment, Asia divesting from Treasuries, mortgage defaults starting to balloon, 2.whatever GDP growth, 106 banks failing this year, states in budget crisis all over............not being a smart a$$ here.......but what exactly would you consider "proof" that the current economic policies are not making this economy any better?
     
    Ronnie Bass likes this.
  25. unluckyluciano

    unluckyluciano For My Hero JetsSuck

    53,351
    23,020
    0
    Dec 7, 2007
    9.5 last I saw and unemployment is always the last thing to go in a recovery.
    Asia divesting from treasuries yet the uk picked up the slack, not to mention although asia could be losing confidence in the stability of our treasuries, it could also be given their current economic woes. GDP has grown just not what it was to expectations, at least from what I have seen, hence a slow down in the recovery.
    Point is these things can be seen as proof, but there are other circumstances which can lead to these indicators and just trying to show them as proof of bad policy without highlighting the other possible causes is dishonest and political. That is my beef. I've never said we were in for recovery, I have said 1) Ignoring positive signs is again political 2) And I just don't share the doom and gloom scenarios which seem to be so popular on this board.
     
  26. azfinfanmang

    azfinfanmang Premium Member Luxury Box

    29,747
    11,512
    0
    Nov 23, 2007
  27. my 2 cents

    my 2 cents Well-Known Member

    3,977
    2,097
    113
    Dec 10, 2007
    NC Mountains
    1...fair enough 9.5 versus 9.6 ......that is still a bad number historically and the new jobs created does not even keep pace with population.....how is that NOT considered very bad whether it is 9.5 or 9.6.....?

    2. The Fed bought an unprecedented amount of UK treasuries and the UK bought 9% of our latest significant offering.......you can call it pay back, sounbd financial judgement or whatever you want but what it does is offset. My premise on this is just a premise but IMHO it was a loan repayed immediatly to off set the very high probability that our Treasuries yields would fall to levels that would scare the crap out of everyone and give the Fed time to announce they would be buying US treasuries....I am "on the record" with that in a thread 3 weeks ago........oh wait.......the Fed announced what?

    3. China has had to slow their economy...9.5 % growth projections....that is "economic woes"? Yeah...it "cooled" to an annualized 10.3%.......yeah I'll take that "problem"...would you? Sure .....they divested not because of record debt but because of that pesky, problematic 10% growth rate :wink2:..... sorry anyone can choose to believe whatever but that one is a bit tough to swallow.

    4. When in history has 2.3% GDP growth WITH this amount of USG spending considered acceptable "growth"?

    I agree with you that missating "positive signs" is political and I am banned from going there.... so I will not...but yeah I agree with you.....but intepreting these 4 "points" above as positives IMHO can very easily be considered looking through politically colored glasses also......do you not agree?

    I am OK with anyone seeing the economy however they want to and appreciate everyones insight.....so what economic numbers ARE flat out positive without an in depth "well they could have been worse" situational analysis as background? Could it have been worse...sure..anything can be worse....sometimes it is darkest before dawn......sometimes it is darkest before it gets a little bit darker....so yeah it could be worse...but again what numbers without the analysis are flat out positive? I do not see a lot and I am not being problematic, I just would honestly like to see what you see as positives indicators rather than explaining why the negatives really are not negatives?
     
  28. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

    99,465
    37,345
    0
    Nov 22, 2007
    inching to 100k posts
    I most certainly do, the most recent being the CBO basically being forced to report a clearly fraudulent report on the effects of Obamacare while the debate on passage was still ongoing, only later, once passed, was the CBO able to issue a report that showed the cost would exceed 1 Trillion dollars.

    Shall we also discuss the fraud of the "Social Security Trust Fund"?

    China is still growing, quite dramatically really, the Euros have also chosen austerity to deal with their problems and urged the current administration to do the same, the current leadership in fact, is going down the road of spending even more money.

    As for "working" the simplest example is the historic Peak-Trough-Recovery cycle has been 18 months, this has lingered since Fall of 08 and the Fed has been forced to once again, debase the dollar in order to attempt to re-inflate the economy.

    There is no metric that shows a single policy has reversed a trend that was in effect when Obamanomics were implemented in December of 08, not employment, not housing prices, not industrial orders, not bank solvency, not inventories, and as the Fed points out, they have to use Quantitive Easing (the Fed buys US Govt Debt).

    The Summer of Recovery looks very much like the Road to Obamaville.
     
  29. unluckyluciano

    unluckyluciano For My Hero JetsSuck

    53,351
    23,020
    0
    Dec 7, 2007
    No one said it wasn't bad. And I wasn't correcting to say it was great, just thought you might want to know. But again unemployment always lags behind recoveries, which was my main point.

    Sure I remember you mentioning it being pay back. Sure thats possible. I wouldn't say there is massive amount of proof of it though.


    The yuan problem is a problem yes, no matter how you want to spin it or ignore it. Not to mention them being caught what a year ago doctoring their numbers. I wouldn't be surprised if there is more to the story, but even just with what we know it is a problem, in fact stocks dropped in the asian market various times about it, it was discussed at the g20 conference etc. Try how much you guys want, everyone is being effected by the goings on in europe and asia. It is because well there now exists a global economy.


    Again I never said it was great but it is growth. It may not meet projections, but it is growth.

    Sure. But again I have far from said it is absolutely positive. I have just not said it is all negative either.

    the s and p has gone up this month, stocks are above 10.6k. (Fyi which according to the article posted about us mimicking the great depression, would in all likelyness mean we will not do so). Want to know why they have gone up? various data (i.e. housing market did better then projected, unemployment claims lessened the past monther, etc), some of it based on the thought of more stimulus, etc. Those are some positive numbers even if you think the stock market is over inflated which I would agree with.
    And I'm not really arguing it could be worse, I am arguing I think often times things are overstated here. Take this paper. They remove the treasury yield and find there is a little above 50% chance that we are headed for another recession. Fine. Does that mean we are no doubt headed for another recession no. In fact probability wise it means it is a bit more likely we are headed for another recession, but not even more then likely, like say 70% would be. So yes I take issue with this being seen as strictly proof we are headed for another recession.
     
  30. unluckyluciano

    unluckyluciano For My Hero JetsSuck

    53,351
    23,020
    0
    Dec 7, 2007
    That really doesn't answer my question. There have always been scandals, in various places.

    The euros injected money into their system initially. Who else did that again? And once again the asian market dropped as did the european and the stock market from the problems China was experience and possible future problems. Not to mention care to guess what happens to china if they lose us as a buyer? Which fyi is another thing which caused them problems.

    http://money.cnn.com/2010/03/22/news/economy/china.tension.fortune/index.htm


    The summer of recovery actually looked pretty good till the stuff in europe happened. Then all hell broke loose.
     
  31. my 2 cents

    my 2 cents Well-Known Member

    3,977
    2,097
    113
    Dec 10, 2007
    NC Mountains
    All fair enough points Lucky. I do not agree with some of your conclusions but I appreciate the points and the presentation of such.
     
    unluckyluciano likes this.
  32. unluckyluciano

    unluckyluciano For My Hero JetsSuck

    53,351
    23,020
    0
    Dec 7, 2007
    Interesting as always bro. :up:
     
  33. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

    99,465
    37,345
    0
    Nov 22, 2007
    inching to 100k posts
    Not scandals Lucky, plain ol' Fraud, the manner in which the Federal Govt manages it's books would see the average Wall St Executive thrown into the gray bar hotel, however as the Federal Govt they answer to no one.


    Certainly, and it mostly did not work, the German flipped out at seeing their National Wealth robbed, and once they turned off the cash, the only choice left was austerity, which appears to be working btw.

    The Chicoms have focused on developing their internal market for their products, which has led to their still robust growth, and also led to needing the US even less as a customer.

    Hmm..developing domestic markets..


    http://www.globalnav.com/The Top 10 Consumer Trends



    Disagree, the Summer of Recovery was more akin to a Mild Spring, there were small upwards trends in inventories and orders for durable goods, however that was over by May (or so), Hiring in the private sector did not increase appreciably and is now in decline.

    Imho the political economy made a huge misjudgment by not investing in Domestic Construction projects that would lead to higher efficiencies in the US economy, ie Nuclear Power plant construction, Port Improvements, Hydro Electric Dam construction.

    Which would be positive products of Keynsian Economics, however they instead went for increasing Entitlements which in the long term are destructive to sustainable economic growth as they only embed costs and do not produce increasing revenues via increased production in the private sector.
     

Share This Page