Fantasy Novice: What to do with 1st Round Pick

Discussion in 'Fantasy Football' started by Vendigo, Aug 25, 2008.

  1. Vendigo

    Vendigo German Gigolo Club Member

    7,723
    5,683
    113
    Nov 30, 2007
    Okay, so I'm new to this whole FF thing and I'm having my first draft in a couple of hours. Did quite a lot of researching, ranking and stuff and feel pretty comfortable that I won't stink it up completely (that's probably going to last until my second selection at which point I'll go bonkers but never mind). Thing is: I'm at a bit of a loss as to what to do with my 1st round selection. It's a 16 teams keeper league and I'm drafting at #8. Since most players in the league are FF veterans, I figure that the group of LT, AP, Westbrook, Jackson, Addai and quite possibly Brady are gone by my pick, which leaves me with the following options I'd like to hear your thoughts on:


    - Frank Gore (I'm leaning towards him at the moment because we're pretty generous on receptions and I figure he'll get his faire share in Martz' offense. I'm a bit wary about the overall production of the 49ers offense though)

    - Marshawn Lynch (looks like a stud and a possible longterm keeper but, see above, I'm worried about him not getting a lot of receptions)

    - Clinton Portis (looks like the safe pick to me; solid running numbers, solid receptions)

    - Ryan Grant (I do like Grant. I really do. I'm liking him more than any other back, to be honest. But then there's the one year wonder thing and Favre gone, and in a 16 teams league I don't think I can afford to blow this selection with a high risk pick)

    - Marion Barber (Barber had only four games with more than 20 carries his entire career and I'm not sure this will change with Felix Jones. These goal line carries intrigue me though)

    - Peyton Manning/Tom Brady if available (considering the 16 teams and the keeper format I think that QBs will get drafted higher in this league and I really don't like the 2nd tier QBs this year. One tactic I thought about was grabbing a good QB here and then go for Brandon Jacobs in the 2nd and Bradshaw later as a handcuff. I might run thin on RB depth this way, so I'm curious on your take for this approach)


    A couple of other points/questions:


    - I do like Ricky and I thing he'll carry the load this year in Miami. Based on that premise, where would you take him?

    - Same goes for Ginn. We're pretty generous on punt/kick return yards as well, so I'm all for grabbing Ginn. Where would you take him?


    Thanks in advance. Any help/suggestions/advise is genuinely appreciated.
     
  2. bg34

    bg34 Junior Member

    987
    188
    63
    Nov 26, 2007
    Virginia
    I'd go Portis or Manning.
     
    Vendigo likes this.
  3. PeaTearGriffin

    PeaTearGriffin Season Ticket Holder

    1,478
    403
    83
    Dec 8, 2007
    Lynch would be my choice. He'll get over 300 touches.

    On the other questions i just did my $$$ draft yesterday and in that Ricky went around pick 120.

    I can't really tell you were Ginn went because one of my friends drafted him real early to make me mad. But having return yards does bump him up the list. I wanted him for my 5th WR.
     
    Vendigo likes this.
  4. Striking

    Striking Junior Member

    1,928
    801
    113
    Apr 21, 2008
    Aurora, Colorado
    Probably too late but..

    I'd go with Barber. His running style probably means he may be out of the league in 6 years but you can enjoy these next 5. His team is better than the others and it should lead to continued use of the running game for 4 quarters.

    Portis would be #2. I'm a little worried about all the new faces and the progress of Campbell @ QB but Portis is a steady player. He's a safe pick.

    I'd go with Lynch next. The last thing a QB learns is to check the ball down. Edwards is entering his 2nd year but 1st as a starter, look for him to rely on the backs more often this year. Lynch can catch the ball so he'll be out there on 3rd downs too.

    Gore is more problematic. PPR league makes him intriguing but I am not a Martz fan. There was more talent in Detroit and look how that turned out.

    Grant is still an unknown and I'd be hesitant to pick him with my first pick when safer guys on the board.

    If you wanted a QB I would target Romo, he might slip to you at pick 37 or go with Brees. Wayne would be tempting there too. Be careful though, with 16 teams RB depth will be an issue with so many teams seeming to be in split carry mode. Good thing about RBs is that there are always new ones next year while QBs/WRs take longer to develop.
     
    Vendigo likes this.
  5. Vendigo

    Vendigo German Gigolo Club Member

    7,723
    5,683
    113
    Nov 30, 2007

    Nope. Still got three hours and I'm ranking like crazy :wink2:

    Thanks for the input, mate. You're making this hard on me ... probably I don't like Barber because I despise the Cowboys so much (see my signature) ... though the argument for him is a compelling one. I might just break and pick him although the prospect of cheering for the Girls makes me want to hit myself with a blunt object.

    As for Brees, the dream scenario is for him to be there with pick #25 ... don't suppose that's likely to happen but a man can dream, right? What prevents me from going QB in round 1 is the same concern about RB depth in a 16 man league. I don't like the 2nd tier QBs all that much this year (everything that comes after Brees concerns me one way or the other) but I don't see a way to go QB in round 1 and still come up with a decent RB depth.
     
  6. vmarcilfan75

    vmarcilfan75 blah...blah...blah... Club Member

    6,939
    2,485
    113
    Dec 13, 2007
    City Of Angels
    Gore or Barber.
    In a 16 team league Top RBs are slim. You need to grab atleast 1 in the 1st 2 rounds.

    Target Ricky in the 6th-8th rd. Ginn probably the 9th-11th.
     
    Vendigo likes this.
  7. Striking

    Striking Junior Member

    1,928
    801
    113
    Apr 21, 2008
    Aurora, Colorado
    Dang Republicans and their fuzzy math...dunno why I said 37, so I have to blame someone other than myself :escape:

    Allegiances must die in FF, it's hard but it has to be done. It's an issue that caused me to stop playing for a couple of years as it took away from my overall enjoyment of just watching football for football's sake.

    Try not to get too worked up, you just have to let it unfold and see how it goes. As long as you are prepared for your next pick, keeping a watchful eye for steals, you will do well.
     
  8. Desides

    Desides Well-Known Member

    38,949
    20,033
    113
    Nov 28, 2007
    Pembroke Pines, FL
    At #8, your real options are Lynch, Portis, and Barber. You're too high up for guys like Grant and Manning, and arguably too high for Gore as well.

    You need to do two things: first, immediately drop your Cowboys hatred, as their players do nothing but produce mountains of fantasy points; and second, focus on ranking players regardless of your draft position. If you think Portis is the best RB available, take him.

    I'd rank the guys on your list in this order of desirability: Lynch, Portis, Gore, Barber, Grant. Manning shouldn't even factor in: QBs are the most overrated fantasy players. If you REALLY want a QB, snag Romo, Brees, or Palmer in the 2nd. But in 16 team leagues, people usually worry about positions besides QB for the first couple of rounds. Also, regarding Lynch: the Jills want to give him more touches both running and passing. He's a very good option.

    Regarding Ricky Williams, I have him as a 10th rounder in 10-team leagues, which puts him in about the 6th-7th in a 16-team league. If your league counts return yards and TDs, make Ginn your third receiver and take him immediately before or after Ricky.
     
    Vendigo likes this.
  9. Vendigo

    Vendigo German Gigolo Club Member

    7,723
    5,683
    113
    Nov 30, 2007
    Thanks a lot for your input. I appreciate it.



    Sigh ... I know. But if you get force-fed all of that America's Team crap for three straight years with literally every game broadcasted involving the Cowboys and how "American" they are, you're starting to hate them with a vengeance.

    As for the ranking, I did exactly that. It's just that the guys I named graded out roughly the same without a clear favorite which is why I asked for advise. A couple of picks sooner or later and I wouldn't have the same problem.



    Did you forget Gore in the earlier list or did I get anything wrong? Also, I'd be interested to hear the reasons for that ranking.
     
  10. Desides

    Desides Well-Known Member

    38,949
    20,033
    113
    Nov 28, 2007
    Pembroke Pines, FL
    I understand and even agree, but there are no announcers, homers or otherwise, in fantasy football. :up:

    No, that's a goof on my part. I was thinking two different things at the time I mentioned Gore and Barber. My train of thought: if you're in a PPR league, then Gore over Barber. If not, then Barber over Gore. My only caveat to that is Felix Jones and Tashard Choice will undoubtedly steal some of Barber's carries, and Barber was platooned as the #2 behind Julius Jones for a reason. They're both risk/reward guys in their own way.

    I personally like Gore a tad more than Barber, but I realize it's a judgment call between the two.
     
  11. Vendigo

    Vendigo German Gigolo Club Member

    7,723
    5,683
    113
    Nov 30, 2007

    That was my line of thinking as well and I'm still leaning towards Gore on that reason alone. Although I'd love to hear why you seem to have Lynch ranked higher than both. Not questioning his talent or the fact that the Bills will rely on him more but those PPRs can make quite a difference and I'm a bit concerned about him getting enough catches.
     
  12. PeaTearGriffin

    PeaTearGriffin Season Ticket Holder

    1,478
    403
    83
    Dec 8, 2007
    well both will be good fantasy options...its really about your gut feeling. In the draft i did yesterday i ended up getting both :up:.

    I like Lynch more also because of the talent around him. It opens things up a little more for him.
     
  13. Desides

    Desides Well-Known Member

    38,949
    20,033
    113
    Nov 28, 2007
    Pembroke Pines, FL
    Lynch put up 1115 rush/184 receiving yards and 7 rushing TDs while playing in only 13 games. The Jills have already said that his workload will increase, particularly in the passing game. If he plays all 16 games, that means 1300-1400 rushing yards with 10+ TDs, and 300-350 receiving yards with at least 1 TD.

    More importantly, at #8, Lynch is one of the only true workhorse RBs remaining on the board. It's basically Lynch, Portis, and Gore at that point in terms of number of touches. Barber will not touch the ball as many times as the aforementioned guys.
     
  14. Vendigo

    Vendigo German Gigolo Club Member

    7,723
    5,683
    113
    Nov 30, 2007
    And here's the first FF team of my life. Comments appreciated:

    QB: Philip Rivers (#57); Jason Campbell (#104)

    RB: Frank Gore (#8); Jamal Lewis (#40); Ray Rice (#121); Lorenzo Booker (#185); Chris Brown (#264); Thomas Pierre (#296)

    WR: Reggie Wayne (#25); Chris Chambers (#89); Jabbar Gaffney (#168); Chris Henry (#217); Marty Booker (#281)

    TE: Tony Gonzalez (#72)

    K: Mason Crosby (#200)

    DB: Champ Bailey (#232); Leodis McKelvin (#313)

    DL: Aaron Kampman (#153)

    LB: Karlos Dansby (#136); Michael Boley (#249)
     
  15. DonShula84

    DonShula84 Moderator Luxury Box

    9,311
    3,464
    0
    Jan 3, 2008
    I would have gone Lynch over Gore only because I dont trust Gore to stay healthy.

    As for your team you could use another RB. After your top 2 it gets a bit thin, I'd probably say the same thing about WR actually but you are in a large league so it's probably not too bad actually.
     
  16. Boik14

    Boik14 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    76,046
    39,124
    113
    Nov 28, 2007
    New York
    Larry Johnson is a player I love. If hes on the board he would be my pick. Hes got a deep threat with Bowe so even if his line is marginal, he should still be closer to form then he was last year and Ive gotten him at 11 and 19 in two leagues so far. If hes there thats my pick.

    Portis would be 1st on that list. While he has a very good backup in Betts who could steal some carries, hes a very consistent player on an improving offense. Zorn should be running a spread offense so he could see a slight spike.

    Barber is one of my favorite non phins, has been since college. I remember arguing with people on every board that Barber would be better then Maroney and other higher picks. However I worry about one thing: that is he hasnt ever been a guy to tite the rock 20-30x a game, every game. Hes always been the change of pace guy who gets 10-15 touches with the occasional 25 carry effort. Could this affect his durability down the stretch? Plus he plays in a sick division with 3 other excellent teams

    Lynch would be 3rd on this list. The pats are old, the jets are average, and our phins are rebuilding. Thats 6 good opportunities for 100+
     
  17. Boik14

    Boik14 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    76,046
    39,124
    113
    Nov 28, 2007
    New York
    Not bad. One immediate improvement I see is that DL you can use a LB there...its usually based on front 7 eligibility. Try using Dansby there and see if it lets you. Dump Kampman or trade him and grab another MLB (typically get the most tackles)...if I can recommend Jon Beason or Vilma....
    LB's in most scoring formats will kill a true DL because tackles > sacks in terms of the frequency with which they occur.

    Otherwise not bad...:knucks:
     
    Vendigo likes this.
  18. Vendigo

    Vendigo German Gigolo Club Member

    7,723
    5,683
    113
    Nov 30, 2007

    Lynch and Barber were gone by #8 so I basically had to go with Gore here. I was about to change my mind to Lynch when he was picked at #5.



    Yeah, I'm also a bit concerned about my depth at RB and WR but the thing is, there was pretty much no RB and WR available from the 4th round onwards ... even Ricky went in the 5th. And looking at the other teams, I'm actually having one of the better RB and WR tandems in the league. Got to hope for Rice pushing McGahee for the starting job, I suppose.
     
  19. Vendigo

    Vendigo German Gigolo Club Member

    7,723
    5,683
    113
    Nov 30, 2007

    Good point, thanks a lot. I realized too late that quite a couple of "defensive linemen" were actually linebackers (talk about a rookie mistake) and wondered why Kampman lasted so long. I'm keeping an eye on Matt Roth at the moment who's one of the few DL/LBs left in free agency. I still got a bit of flexibility at that last defense spot (if McKelvin ends up starting and more importantly returning I got a stud there, if not, no biggie) so depending on how McKelvin does, I might dump him for Roth or someone else.
     
  20. vmarcilfan75

    vmarcilfan75 blah...blah...blah... Club Member

    6,939
    2,485
    113
    Dec 13, 2007
    City Of Angels
    Roth?
    There has to be better options out there.
    List your F/A DLs(LBs) if you can

    check out these Rookies if there are available(i doubt it)

    Rivers CIN
    Lofton ATL
    Mayo NE
    Dizon DET
     
  21. Vendigo

    Vendigo German Gigolo Club Member

    7,723
    5,683
    113
    Nov 30, 2007

    Here's the top of the FA pool on DL:

    J. Taylor
    A. Schobel
    J. Abraham
    C. Grant
    L. Little
    A. Brown
    K. Williams
    D. Tapp
    M. Anderson
    D. White
    M. Patterson
    R. Edwards
    L. Castillo
    M. Douglas
    T. Kelly
    A. Odom
    K. Gregg
    C. Long

    I don't really see a better option than Kampman there and the DL/LB tweener are pretty much all gone. As I said, this being my first FF draft, I simply didn't know that there were these tweeners in the first place and was taken by surprise. I actually like the two LBs I have but Kampman might come back to bite me in the butt.



    All gone.
     
  22. vmarcilfan75

    vmarcilfan75 blah...blah...blah... Club Member

    6,939
    2,485
    113
    Dec 13, 2007
    City Of Angels
    This is yahoo correct? Because they clump DL with LBs and have crappy rankings.
    do you have to start a DL and a LB?? If not then dont go by there Rankings. You'll have to search for LBs.


    EDIT:
    DL are only good if you get Big Points for Sacks
     
  23. Vendigo

    Vendigo German Gigolo Club Member

    7,723
    5,683
    113
    Nov 30, 2007

    No, it's Flea Flicker. Should've mentioned that, sorry. I need to start 1 DL, 1LB, 1 DB and 1 Flex. So I figure I'm not too bad with Dansby, Boley, Bailey and Kampman, but I'm beginning to think that I overdrafted Kampman quite a lot. Rookie mistake.
     
  24. vmarcilfan75

    vmarcilfan75 blah...blah...blah... Club Member

    6,939
    2,485
    113
    Dec 13, 2007
    City Of Angels
    oh ok sorry i got confused. Kampman is a great DL to have.
    Dont get rid of him...LOL
     
  25. vmarcilfan75

    vmarcilfan75 blah...blah...blah... Club Member

    6,939
    2,485
    113
    Dec 13, 2007
    City Of Angels
    Id pick up Schobel as a back up
     
  26. Vendigo

    Vendigo German Gigolo Club Member

    7,723
    5,683
    113
    Nov 30, 2007

    Really? And release who? I was under the impression that I'd rather need a LB backup since I'm going to start two of them (1 on flex) each week. With DL, I only need a backup once (during Kampman's bye) unless he's getting hurt which strikes me as more unlikely than one of two LBs getting hurt.
     
  27. vmarcilfan75

    vmarcilfan75 blah...blah...blah... Club Member

    6,939
    2,485
    113
    Dec 13, 2007
    City Of Angels
    youre right I dont really see who you can drop right now just for a Bye Week replacement.

    Is LB Posluszny available??
     
  28. Vendigo

    Vendigo German Gigolo Club Member

    7,723
    5,683
    113
    Nov 30, 2007

    Nope, unfortunately not. He was my choice for LB #2 but got picked two or three spots before I intended to take him and so I went with Boley. Looking at the FA right now, there's literally no one available on any position that would even stand a slim chance starting for me in week 1. It's crazy that 16 team league stuff.
     
  29. vmarcilfan75

    vmarcilfan75 blah...blah...blah... Club Member

    6,939
    2,485
    113
    Dec 13, 2007
    City Of Angels
    thats right 16 teams :sad:
     
  30. Boik14

    Boik14 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    76,046
    39,124
    113
    Nov 28, 2007
    New York
    Another trick i learned...safeties and corners who also return kicks are the best point getters for the secondary. Safeties just seem to get more tackles though im pretty sure the donte whitners and brian dawkins types are gone or at least they should be. Terrence Mcgee is always a favorite because he gets return yards as well as starts. Look for players like that...:wink2:
     
    Vendigo likes this.
  31. Vendigo

    Vendigo German Gigolo Club Member

    7,723
    5,683
    113
    Nov 30, 2007

    Thanks. That's why I drafted McKelvin in the 20th round, by the way. The guy was a return beast in college and returned a lot during the preseason, so I'm hoping he'll take over the duties of McGee at some point and hopefully also cracks the starting lineup at one point during the season. I think I can afford to keep him around for a couple of weeks if I'm not getting plagued by injuries too much.
     

Share This Page