Marshall, not a deep threat... rather a run after catch type... He will certainly out jump the DB, but the qb has to have faith in that play...
I cut up every pass he threw this year and counted yardage from line of scrimmage to the point where it was caught. it is telling that everybody has different numbers.
I think the way you did it is the only way you can and be accurate. I'm not sure how PFF compiles their numbers, but I seriously doubt they watch every single pass. It's not like baseball where you can put stats into a spreadsheet.
They do. It's why it takes usually an entire week for them to get done grading every single game that happened during the week. They usually don't have every single game up until Friday. And while yes, everyone does seem to have slightly different numbers, they're not that far off from one another. The stats you'll see on CNNSI or other places often say 21+ yards where PFF says 20+ yards and so naturally PFF includes about 1 or 2 more passes than the others do. The one that stands out as glaringly different is Section's number. It's way off from anything that I've seen anywhere be it PFF, CNNSI, ESPN or that one other specialty site I forget its name.
I think I know what they are doing. There have been several passes completed at exactly 20 yards from scrimmage that they are calling short of 20 yards. Take this Ravens game for example. (since it is fresh) How many completions do they have for this one?
Completions or attempts? They say Henne attempted 4 passes at 20+ yards, completing 1 (the one to Hartline).
You are dead on the money: From NFL player info: Chad Pennington in 2008 16 regular season games he was 38 in +20 and 8 in + 40 yard passes. Chad Henne in the total 25 games he has been in is 44 in +20 and 6 in + 40 yards passes with a much better wr corp. We won't even go into the INT comparsion As I wouldn't want to hurt anyones feelings.
Pennington does throw down the field. The problem is with his weak arm he has to compensate in two ways. Earlier recognition. If the WR doesn't get the advantage early, or Penny doesn't recognize it soon enough, it isn't happening. He has to recognize it early, because he has to throw more of a rainbow to get it there, a lob pass so to speak, which leads us to #2 With the weak arm, he has to float it more, which allows the defense to close, or to trick him (if they're good) so he needs really good separation. Sometimes his WRs have to hold up or make a damn good play on the ball. See Ted Ginn's game against Buffalo. A couple passes the DB was so occupied with just saying with Ginn (and his speed) they don't even bother to track the ball. Me thinks that Marshall is going to feast with Penny throwing the ball, with Marshall's ability to devour the DB with the ball in the air
Assuming those are accurate GA (no offense but Stat Monkeys are notorious for finding stats that counter stats that counter stats) then you can see the issue. When the big arm is not hitting them down field, the Defense will not worry about that particular route enough to effect the defense, that equalizes Henne and Pennington, and that 20 yd and in area Henne is no match for Pennington. When Henne has another shot at being out starting Qb he has to learn that even Two Deep should be no hinderence to throwing the ball deep downfield, that is what the cannon arm is for, to break that shell the defense is trying to put on top of the Defense. The Houston Texans continously crack the Colts 2 deep safety looks..
Like my Dad used to say: "Scared money don't make no money". You've got to take risks to make big plays, and our passing game is the most risk averse I've seen all year. The key to throwing Deep against a Cover 2 is forcing it to expand, attacking the gaps, and isolating the safeties. We suck at all three. We have no TE to threaten the seams and, and no RBs to threaten the flats. Defenses are allowed to cheat, its a design flaw in our offense IMO. First of all, with Henne, we only send 3 receivers into the pattern half of the time, yet we are rarely blitzed. Hard to attack the integrity of ANY coverage when you're outnumbered 7 or 8 to 3 in the secondary. Notice how may times Henne has plenty of time to throw but ends up throwing it away or scrambling for 6 inches. On the second series vs Pitt, we called a play action with a 9 man protection and sent Marshall out solo. Henne had 7-8 seconds to throw, yet the play had ZERO chance of working b/c Marshall was triple covered. It was an idiotic call IMO, b/c the Steelers have been using 7 in the box and refusing to over play the run for the last 20 years. You're not going play action them into giving you a one one one outside. Because we only send 3 guys out, we cant threaten the flats or the seams consistently. The corners have flat responsibility in a cover 2, but they'll bracket the outside WR until their zone is threatened. The Pats, Steelers, Bengals and Ravens did this a lot and we never adjusted. Check the 2nd interception last week on the slant to Marshall, he was quadruple covered. A corner short outside, 2 LBs sitting in the dig-slant zones, and Reed over the top. It's a miracle that Henne ever got the ball to him in the first place. Critics say the throw was too high & hard and it probably was, but if Henne throws it any lower or slower its picked off by the LB. If Henne waits for Marshall to clear the LB, Ray Lewis is in the next window, waiting to give BM the Dustin Keller treatment. Critics say, work the other side of the field then, which is also fair. But Hartline and Bess were on the left side, Bess was bracketed, Hartline was blanketed, as he was for most of the game, er, season. We're down 13 with 6 minutes to go, I don't know why we're max protecting that situation. It's like the OC has no confidence in the OL to protect the QB or no trust in the QB to make complicated reads, or both, and he'd rather lose like a coward than get blown out like a man. In order to attack the coverages that we're seeing, we'll need to sacrifice pass protection in favor of sending more receivers out. It's the only way. If we send Ronnie into the flat behind Marshall, the corner has to come up and play him & then Marshall is one one one with the safety. If the corners hugs Marshall we'll just throw into the flats till they stop it or start playing man. If the LBs fly out to the flats to stop Ronnie that leaves the middle open for Fasano and Bess. Every coverage has holes, but you cant attack them with 3 guys. Pennington excels at finding small windows against short zones and he doesn't need to be max protected (babysat) by the offensive coordinator. Personally, I don't think Henne needs to be baby sat either, but I'm not the OC. Hopefully we'll open the playbook and turn past the Table of Contents for a change. Hopefully Penne will throw the 50/50 balls that Henne wouldn't. Hopefully Penne's leadership and intangibles will improve the play of the rest of the offense. Hopefully playing that "who's who of elite NFL teams" for 7 weeks will make playing these lesser teams that much easier. We'll see.
The records of the last 4 teams Penny faced is 47-17 or a .73 winning percentage...guess you forgot to bring that up Did you miss that Penny is 9-5 in his last 14 games??? Did you miss that Penny has 15tds and 10 ints over that same time frame? STATS CAN SHOW DIFFERENT THINGS DEPENDING UPON TIME FRAMES
Not to Stat Monkey, there is no such nuancing of views based on Stats. Which is why I like to boil it down to "Td to Int" ratio and PPG, everything else is nice, but the bottom line is producing points each game, every game. For us Time of Possession is also more important than it is to the average NFL offense.
Yea, points per game is kind of a weird stat. If pennington only has 2 drives on sunday and scores tds on those drives, that is a lot better than a qb who may have 8 drives and score 21 points.
21 pts is more than 14 pts, so it would mean more regardless of the number of drives. Passing yards, YPC, YAC, all that stuff means..-0-..it is all about PPG, TD to Int ratio and ToP. Though if we run for 100 yds the chances we win the game are astonishing.
No, 21 points would be worse that 14 points scored on 2 drives, since your opponent will have a max of 3 possessions to beat your 14 points. On the 21 points, your opponent will have a minimum of 7 possession to beat your 21 points.
That assumes your opponent scores, which is why PPG and TD to Int ratio as well as time of possession are the only stats I particularly care about, well, those and Tipped Passes.
And throws for 4 yds on 3rd and 8...... You want a concession? You just got one from Sparano and company..... "we're not so hot at developing QB's and we need one that doesn't really need our help" something like that
This one is right...although the First Marshall reception was thrown 19 yards from scrimmage to completion.
