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Draftmetrics Draft Ratings for the last 5 years

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by byroan, Jan 29, 2013.

  1. byroan

    byroan Giggity Staff Member Administrator Luxury Box

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  2. Clark Kent

    Clark Kent Fighter of the Nightman

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    So it really doesn't matter all that much how good the players are, as long as they are on the active roster and start. Scott Pioli should have been given a raise according to this site lol...
     
  3. uab_phin

    uab_phin New Member

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    Really interesting way to look at it I'd like to see the writer go one step further and list them in order of the difference of expected ranking and actual ranking that would draw an even better picture of talent evaluation.
     
  4. emocomputerjock

    emocomputerjock Senior Member

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    If I read it correctly, if the players are on any active roster the drafting team gets credit. So, we get credit for Donald Thomas, even though he's on the Patriots.
     
  5. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I think that would be the obvious criticism of this particular methodology.

    In the end both sides seem pretty entrenched. People that don't think Miami's done a very good job drafting will point out the flaws in the methodology, and people that do believe Ireland has done a good job will laugh, give themselves some broseph high-fives and pats on the back, and act haughty as if this shows how obviously right they've been all along.
     
  6. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Another obvious criticism.

    Take a step back for a moment. According to this, 3 of the top 5 drafting teams in the NFL just fired their General Managers, and the other 2 of the top 5 are in hot water and constantly embattled and criticized by their fan base.

    Nobody else sees that and thinks this methodology is suspect? It's almost a total contra-indicator.
     
  7. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    I don't think its complete.

    I think if the player is starting on a roster, even if it isn't the team that drafted him is a solid base. After all, talent to start is talent to start.

    The problem is bad talent can start on teams. There has to be a weighting of some kind for this to make sense.
     
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  8. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito. Club Member

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    fixed
     
  9. Rhody Phins Fan

    Rhody Phins Fan Well-Known Member

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    I think the problem with this way of thinking is that, when you draft players, you are drafting them specifically for your team. If they don't fit on your team for one reason or another, then you shouldn't get credit for it because you failed to use that draft selection to help your team. That is the ultimate goal of the draft.
     
  10. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    Nah. A team really good at drafting could be turning players over. A team that under performs because of coaching could be switching systems and players that were perfect for one system could be a liability on another.
     
  11. Anonymous

    Anonymous Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Don't like this drafting method, even though I've been a fan of our drafts.
     
  12. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Oh I do, BUT, without weighting stuff like "who" started it lacks as much as the usual draft metrics

    For example, are a G's starts as valuable as say..a Te?

    No, they are not ditto a Qb vs a Cb, the mental aspect of the game, and the positions those snaps are spent on are key metrics in how the team is progressing.

    INOW, whose starts are more valuable, John Jerry's or Ryan Tannehill?
     
  13. Disgustipate

    Disgustipate Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    This is by no means a comprehensive view of the draft and doesn't address some of the criticisms of Ireland(not drafting the right positions), but it should certainly dispel the idea that Ireland isn't getting a good success rate or contributing players which if anything is the biggest misconception. People don't seem to understand what actual NFL drafts look like in terms of how many "hits" you get.

    The Chiefs are that high up the list based primarily on their phenomenal 2008 draft, which is objectively one of the best draft classes in recent memory, and occurred before Scott Pioli was hired.
     
  14. Lloyd Heilbrunn

    Lloyd Heilbrunn Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    5 of top 10 and 3 of top 10 made the Playoffs this year.

    Meaningless....
     
  15. Disgustipate

    Disgustipate Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I think this illustrates a pretty fundamental problem... People don't care about nuance. It doesn't matter if in reality the draft is good or bad, the team isn't winning enough shut the **** up and fire someone.
     
  16. Section126

    Section126 We are better than you. Luxury Box

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    I readily concede that Ireland has been good on draft day. he sucks at everything else though.
     
  17. Aquafin

    Aquafin New Member

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    isn't this suposed to be how it works in measuring a team's success ?
     
  18. Rhody Phins Fan

    Rhody Phins Fan Well-Known Member

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    Yes but this system also gives credit for drafting a player and only having that player be successful on another team. That is simply not a good draft pick... I guess ultimately it all comes own to how you define a successful pick, which we differ on.

    I do agree that someone like Kendall Langford is a successful pick. He provided us with value. But should the Saints be given credit for drafting Rob Ninkovich who is playing well for the Patriots. They cut him before the regular season, but they drafted him so they would be given credit.
     
  19. Disgustipate

    Disgustipate Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    That's not really correct either. Ireland has done pretty good in free agency and trading as well.
     
  20. Rhody Phins Fan

    Rhody Phins Fan Well-Known Member

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    I'm not sure what you mean by this.
     
  21. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    I said earlier this system isn't complete. All I'm saying is that if the player is a starter for a team the team that drafted him should get credit. Remember, the chart is about finding out who is good at finding NFL talent in the draft. The things you may want to quantify are not the goals of this chart.
     
  22. Bpk

    Bpk Premium Member Luxury Box

    If we ranked the posters on this site in terms of how well we each assess Ireland's performance I think we'd end up with a result just about as accurate as this Draftmetrics effort.
     
  23. Disgustipate

    Disgustipate Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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  24. Ludacris

    Ludacris Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Using "starts" as a measure can possibly be misleading. For example a guy Ireland drafts to start might only start because he created a hole for that position. It looks good for Ireland's draft record. Now, one guy who starts which a team drafts wouldn't necessarily start for a playoff team. Would Hartline start on a playoff team? probably/probably not...Would Misi start on a playoff team? May be... Would the starters on the Cards and Chiefs whom they draft start on playoff teams?
     
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  25. Rhody Phins Fan

    Rhody Phins Fan Well-Known Member

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    That's a good point. In terms of showing who finds NFL talent, this system does an adequate job of that. But, I still don't think that is really the best way of identifying good drafters and that it is skewed by using starts.
     
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  26. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    To me, this has the opposite problem from all of the Qb stats stuff.

    It lacks objectivity, as in not all "starts' are at key positions, like Qb stuff does not properly weigh things like Td's and Fumbles and assumes all Td passes are equal, even though 2/3rds of them could have come against bottom 10 pass defenses.
     
  27. Da 'Fins

    Da 'Fins Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    There is just no nuance to it. So two QB's start, one's an all-world player, the other is mediocre. Where is that in there? You can just go down the line.

    So, in the last 5 drafts team A gets 12 starters, team B gets 20 starters. But, team B's starters are mediocre at best. Team A has 6 all-pros, a couple of pro bowlers and a great QB out of it. Team A is in the playoffs 2-3 years or wins a SB and team B waffles between 7-9 and 9-7 each year.

    It is simply not a good measurement above.

    By the measure above, the Browns should be smokin' people.
     
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  28. Disgustipate

    Disgustipate Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I don't think it's that misleading in the context of the Dolphins. I don't think they've started many draft picks who have been gross negatives outside of Jonathan Martin in the last five years.
     
  29. Da 'Fins

    Da 'Fins Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    This is another good point. You draft a kid in the 2nd round and you have a journeyman player at the same position. And/or the player at that position has a big contract you have to get rid of; so the draft pic gets the starting nod (or roster spot). Then, he's really average - a middle of the pack player.
     
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  30. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Look, it's a good start but it's not the end all be all. The number of starters you draft is important.

    After that, you take another step and analyze those starters. Are they starting because the GM is so bad he hasn't drafted anyone better? Factor that in.

    There is no litmus test here. Don't try to find one.

    I will say. If you draft a player and he plays out his contract then signs with another team, you get credit for that. That's business in the NFL and someone else may have over paid.

    If you draft a player and cut them before the contract is up, they catch on somewhere else and kick ***, well you don't get credit for that.

    Not sure how to deal with trades.
     
  31. Disgustipate

    Disgustipate Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The Browns have done a pretty good job in the draft over the last 5 years.
     
  32. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin RIP Phinsational Luxury Box Club Member

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    When I look at that list I'm left thinking "how did they arrive at this list" more than left feeling "Looks like our drafts are kicking ***" TBH.
     
  33. LBsFinest

    LBsFinest Banned

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    this might be the most deceiving football chart i've ever seen in my life.
     
  34. Ludacris

    Ludacris Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    May be not gross negatives but perhaps serviceable which tells us the direction of the team. The team will continue to still build and build after all these years. I get that this is a young team on the way up and waiting for some growth but I believe it also needs some league veterans inserted to be "starters" because their experience and talent level should be beneficial to the group overall. Ireland should really be striving for an optimal roster at this point.
     
  35. #1 fan

    #1 fan Well-Known Member

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    The two teams in the Superbowl are 21 and 24 on that list.
     
  36. Ozzy

    Ozzy Premium Member Luxury Box

    It's too bad they don't use a list like this to hand out playoff slots!

    Because the draft picks have led this team to one winning season in the last five.
     
  37. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I would hope that would be the case, to be honest. I'm trying to be objective here and I know certain people will put forth the notion that I'm not. I think the argument about the Dolphins' drafting over the last 5 years has never really gone outside the realm of, "Is it par for the course, or is it bad?"...and yet all the sudden this thing is saying #2 in the NFL. Meanwhile they have the Chiefs at #1 in the NFL, the Cardinals at #3 in the NFL, the Browns at #4 and the Eagles at #5...and just as I said, three of those GMs were just fired this season, and the other two are "embattled" to put it kindly.
     
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  38. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    The best way to quantify drafting ability is by looking at how much guaranteed money the draftees get in their second contracts. NFL free agent markets extremely efficient, but they are likely more accurate and equally applied than anything else available.
     
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  39. KB21

    KB21 Almost Never Wrong Club Member

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    I keep seeing comments talking about how this study isn't an objective study. Really? Exactly where is the subjectivity in this study? I don't see it.

    The fact of the matter is, every team is going to draft some guys that end up starting for them that probably wouldn't start for other teams. That isn't a characteristic that is solely a Miami Dolphins thing.

    If there is a flaw in the 5 year data category, it is that the players that have been drafted in 2010 through 2012 really have not had the opportunity to truly establish whether they are solid starters or not.

    Is Marshall Newhouse a solid starter in your subjective opinion? Marshall's objective numbers as far as quarterback pressures allowed per pass protection snap as a rookie is similar to Jonathan Martin's numbers as a rookie. Newhouse gave up a QB pressure on 9.9% of his pass protection snaps as a rookie. Jonathan Martin was 10.3%. Newhouse's PBE was 92.2. Martin's 92.0. Joe Philbin is actually a common denominator between the two. Newhouse improved to giving up a pressure on 7.1% of his pass block snaps this past year. Will Martin have a similar improvement?
     
  40. I dont think drafting someone who can win a spot on a roster on a team that is devoid of talent to begin with isnt really reflective it of being a good draft pick. You have a better chance of making it on a roster if your drafted by a bad team then you are if your picked by a good team. I think that basic concept skews the results of his chart.
     

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