Uhhh... not thrilled with this one. If Patterson is there at #12 and Star Lotuleilei is there, too? I'd have to take Lotuleilei between those two and I'd probably go with Ogletree anyway. Patterson- same thing- great talent, bust potential imo. I still like Da'Rick Rogers better anyway as a pure talent and I'd rather choose from Patton, Austin, Baily, Wheaton, Williams, Goodwin in rds 2-4, Wilson and Swope a bit later. I like John Simon, but he's limited and we need a quality edge rusher- if we passed over Lemonier for Simon- ouch. The rest of the draft does little for me, not a fan. http://www.drafttek.com/2013-NFL-Mock-Draft-Round1.asp ps the more I watch of Lotulelei the more I'd be hesitant to take anyone over him in this draft. Stellar prospect.
Saw an interesting stat. Something you probably already know if you've watched Utah play a lot, but it helps to see it put together. Star Lotulelei played over 97% of his defense's snaps this year. Pretty incredible for a DT.
Interesting, I didn't know that. This guy is just a mobile slab, like a refrigerator in cleats with a deep tan. He reminds me of Ngata in terms of size and movement and Wilfork in terms of just size- incredible speed and quickness for a man of his size, and plenty aggressive. Look at what he does to this poor guy at :40- I don;t know whether to laugh or send the recipient of that hit a condolence card. I'm no expert on Lotulelei, just a guy watching film. Could I understand passing up Damonter Moore for Patterson? Yes, and you make a good case as per Moore. Pass up Loutulelei? Can't do it. He might be the best player in the draft, we can fill needs in rds 2-4. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S2NFHqoFuMs Look at :46 in that clip above- that movement at that size gets a "wow". Then look at the power at :51- elite prospect, could very well be a future all-pro. Remember how pissed Saban was when Ngata was taken a few picks before the Dolphins pick and we took Jason Allen? Granted we didn't have Soilia and Starks, but- this guy is just too good. Aldon Smith got a "wow" a couple of drafts ago as a pass rusher. Ogletree gets a "wow" from me this year, Lotulelei gets a "wow"- I don't really see many other "wows" out there, Anthony Barr would be another if he came out. WWOD- what would Ozzy do? My guess is take the stud DT and look for pass rushers, WRs and DB's with the next 5 picks. This guy is just too good to pass up, jmo. :58 below - wow http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=co-NvKnZzvw
I can't pass up Star Lotulelei for Cordarrelle Patterson. I'd be hard pressed to pass up Lane Johnson or Manti Te'o for Cordarrelle Patterson, as things stand.
Chris- I prefer Arthur Brown to Te'o. Thoughts? You mentioned yesterday that you thought players like Mingo didn't make sense as Ireland is in search for a starter. I'll give you three names I want to hear your stance on.....Chance Warmack, Tyler Eifert, Jarvis Jones.... Star Lotulelei would be the player I would take for the Dolphins over almost anyone else. Instant impact player...
I like Arthur Brown a lot but I don't prefer him to Te'o. I think Manti Te'o is being severely underestimated in the physical impressiveness area of his game. He's always been a physical dynamo even before he was doing everything right from snap to whistle. Chance Warmack no. The value is not there. What does this guy do that I can't teach another much later prospect to do? Tyler Eifert more tempting than Chance Warmack, but ultimately no. In this league you've got a few tight ends that separate from the pack in Vernon Davis (though that's been a slow, arduous process to reach this point with him), Tony Gonzalez (still), Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski. Other guys can play, but they don't differentiate themselves well from a group of their peers that goes anywhere from 12 to 20 deep, and that hail from all across the draft board. Even Jimmy Graham you could argue has come back to that group. And at various points you could've argued Gonzalez was back down to earth so to speak. And of course Davis took forever to get there. In short, you're left with a situation where you must prioritize the position, but to prioritize it all the way to #12 overall means you'd better be getting the next Vernon Davis (and hope he becomes Vernon Davis sooner), Tony Gonzalez, Jimmy Graham or Rob Gronkowski...otherwise you're wasting your resources. Is Tyler Eifert that kind of guy? I don't know. I don't think so. Would I take Jarvis Jones? I would think long and hard on it. Some players may be available that would make me pass on him. But not many, especially now that a new set of NFL doctors (for whatever this is worth) have supposedly given him the clean bill of health. Different teams' doctors will still feel different ways about his stenosis. If my doctors felt fine with it then he's in the picture. But there's no arguing that taking him would immediately shelve both Olivier Vernon (nickel DE/OLB) and to an extent Koa Misi (base OLB). Is that really ok? I don't mind shelving Vernon at all but Misi was a good player. It's easy to claim that you can find room for everyone. Not as easy to explain in a very nuts and bolts manner EXACTLY how you would do that. It's true that Misi played a lot of downs where he wasn't an OLB...but those downs were as nickel DE. Those were Koa's worst snaps, and they'd be ones you'd want Jarvis to play for him. If you literally add up Koa Misi's snaps (549) and Olivier Vernon's snaps (445) they equal 1,004 snaps...which would've been a full time player in this defense (Karlos Dansby played 1123 snaps, for example). Even if you figure in Misi's injury, the two games he missed, and the fact he took a lot fewer snaps in the two games he came back...you add up Vernon's playing time and Misi's playing time and you get 840 of a possible 872 snaps. I suppose you could displace Derrick Shelby with Vernon. Is Jarvis Jones so good that he'd induce me to ditch these players? Like I said, I don't mind Vernon as much because I don't have much hope for him in the role the Dolphins seem to have in mind for him. Misi would be a bigger loss, though. More of a shame to ditch him. If you could trade Misi for something decent then I'd be all about it.
After passing on Brees in favor of Culpepper I might like the current president more than the Dolphins' doctors
Jarvis Jones is interesting, a terror of the edge and OLB size. He confuses me a little bit- I like him but don't love him, and I'm not sure why. He looks kind of raw and wild to me, like he's winging it- effective, no doubt. Interesting bit of power and recognition at :40 here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MJsBr8HqsEA Take your pick of examples of him bending the arc, plenty there in the clip. And at 3:00 Jones gets to the QB and Ogletree gets there in a flash, as usual- those quick feet are something else, he makes adjustments and has closing speed like no other imo. I would definitely consider drafting Jones at #12, I doubt he'll be available. Actually, if Lotulelei, Jones or Ogletree are there I think that we'll walk away with a solid pressure player. Jones is outstanding (from what I've seen) at lateral pursuit and tracking ball carriers downfield. Probably the best edge rusher in the draft- aside from the stenosis he's quite a prospect. Not quite the "wow" that I get from Lotulelei and Ogletree, but one heck of a player. That would be one heck of a decision between those three players, as per need and straight up talent. Grab one of them and maybe a WR and Carridine in rd 2, then you're cooking with gas, as the saying goes.
One thing worth noting is that the Dolphins sit at $46 million under the cap and can free an additional $8.3 million by releasing Richard Marshall and Dimitri Patterson which in my opinion should be a no-brainers. The Dolphins could be in the $55 million range which is just simply amazing. Here is how I would rank our positions of need....These rankings are considering the Dolphins free agents such as Jake Long, Brian Hartline, Sean Smith, Randy Starks, Anthony Fasano, Chris Clemons, etc. 1-Wide Receiver 2-Cornerback 3-Tight End 4-Offensive Tackle 5-Defensive Tackle 6-Defensive End 7-Linebacker 8-Safety 9-Guard How would you rank our needs?
Dimitri Patterson seemed to go down injured during the last game against the Pats. If that is something that is a concern then I agree you should release him. But if not then I think you should keep him because he's a very good nickel slot corner. The problem most teams run into with him is that one way or another they end up trying him out on the perimeter as a starter, and it never goes well. If you release him and you let Sean Smith walk in free agency then you're staring at a corner position that has Nolan Carroll, Jimmy Wilson and Bryan McCann. That's real bad. I'm not convinced Jimmy Wilson is even worthy of a roster spot. Though I do think McCann is surprisingly good and perhaps worthy of one. But if those three are all you got, you need THREE corners. Two starters, and a nickel. That's a TALL order in one off season.
I just wrote a long post on Jones and somehow deleted it- in the Alabama game he has his moments and certainly looks better than Damontre Moore. On one play he soundly beats Fluker with an outside move then goes right through Lacy working on a double team to get to McCarron and cause a fumble- impressive. But he gets handled quite a bit, not only by the mammoth OTs but both TEs as well. Ogletree gets repeatedly blown out and has trouble with the TEs on running plays- still looks like an OLB to me and a potentially great passing down MLB. But can he set the edge? I want to like Ogletree over Jones, but Ogletree sure plays the part of chase LB more in this tape- still love him but he's certainly not the most physical guy against the run- speaking of which Lacy does at least one Jim Brown or Earl Campbell impersonation in this game- power and he shows some speed at 7:45. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nqczNIJJ2O4 Sack at 6:00 but it doesn;t thrill me- TE held his block and released for reasons unknown. It's hard to not like Jones, even against Alabama. But then you see a FB wasting him at 6:30 and multiple plays where he gets stifled by the TEs- those TEs sure did a good job blocking, Michael Williams and whoever #84 is- they got the best of Jones and Ogletree plenty of times. Ogletree is a missile, Jones has a stronger base to set the edge and is probably the best pass rusher in the draft. Hard not to like either one, but they're not perfect either. I would guess that Jones is a safer pick and a better fit for Miami, but I'd love to see a player like Ogletree making plays all over the field for us. Tough call- gut says Ogletree, mind says Jones.
Just off the top of my head, I think it was an ankle sprain. Nothing serious. Someone else said this in the past couple weeks, and knowing how Ireland operates, I could see him letting Smith go, and going into next season with Marshall, Patterson and a high draft pick as the top 3 corners. Or maybe signing a corner like Greg Toler as well, to throw in the mix.
How does Star differentiate from other can't miss DTs like Tyson Jackson, BJ Raji, Dorsey, Sedrick Ellis, all who have underachieved compared to their draft status? I guess the jury is still out Poe, Dareous, Fairley and Cox.
First off, B.J. Raji wasn't really "can't miss" either. I think Glenn Dorsey and Sedrick Ellis were considered pretty safe. But as a player, I wouldn't compar Star Lotulelei to Glenn Dorsey. I would be more inclined to compare Kawann Short to Dorsey. Just seems like you're asking for alchemy. You're essentially asking for assurance that a player can't possibly be a bust. Any player taken in this draft at any point could be a bust. Andrew Luck could be a bust. Robert Griffin could still be a bust if his injury issues continue to follow him until he retires.
The point I was trying to get across is, bust or not, Dorsey and Ellis were supposed to be dominant. Much like Star is slated to be. Given the actual performances of the highly touted DTs in the years prior, I question that. Hence me asking for alchemy. If anyone can do it though, this draft forum can.
I don't think BJ Raji has underachieved, but in how Star is different is that he has entirely unique DNA and the success or failure of any other player has no bearing on whether or not he'll succeed or fail. Why not ask how he is different than Ngata or Suh?
Jarvis Jones I've got concerns about, but I think all and all he's pretty alluring given the Dolphins situation. You're already running a bunch of Over fronts with 3-4 style personnel and Nickel packages with stand-up defenders. Your star pass rusher is a left-side only guy, putting Jones as a weak-side guy uncovered or shaded seems pretty appealing. There isn't any such thing as a "can't miss" prospect.
The perception of one exists, every year for that matter. That is what I am referring to really. Suh and Ngata have lived up to their draft status. Others that I mentioned haven't IMO. I was merely trying to get some specifics on why you guys would label Star as a 'perceived' can't miss guy. What is special about him? How does he differ from the guys I mentioned in that regard? You can answer by drawing parallels to Suh and Ngata....
I think B.J. Raji has lived up to his draft status and then some. And he wasn't at all considered "can't miss". I would say aside from just Suh and Ngata, also Gerald McCoy and B.J. Raji have lived up to their draft status. And Sedrick Ellis hasn't been all that far off his. I'd say Marcell Dareus has lived up to his billing. Nick Fairley was not at all considered can't miss, in fact opinions were very split on him...but he's been good despite his detractors. Amobi Okoye has been a bust. If I remember correctly I was a bit uncomfortable with him being so highly rated and I don't think I was alone there so I doubt anyone would've called him "can't miss".
Dorsey doesn't really count as KC turned him into a 2-gap 34 end when they changed schemes after his rookie year IIRC.
Ofcourse he counts. He was drafted 4 years ago to make a top 5 like impact, he has failed to do that scheme or no scheme.
I remember Simons reaction after watching Sen'Derrick Marks (is that his name?). He felt he was the ****. I'm not saying this in any way to reflect poorly on Simon. I think he is arguably the best talent assessor on the site (along with CK and some others). It's to show how even the best eyes can fall in love with a DT in the draft scouting process, then you end up wondering what happened to the guy you expected to take over the league. I was pretty sure Toby Gerhart (is that his name? I'm having trouble remembering names because I haven't had lunch yet!) would be a 1000 yard rusher every single year and that Jerious Norwood was a Pro Bowl back. Lol.
That's true but BPK's point was more about how a player shouldn't be blamed for not fulfilling his potential if he's played out of position or is in one that doesn't suit his strengths. Look at what the Chiefs did with Branden Albert. They drafted him as a guard and moved him to left tackle. Had they been able to leave him at guard he might be one of the game's best at the position. I just don't agree a player should count as a failure if he's moved to a position different than he was drafted for, and I think Fin-O is forgetting the fact that Dorsey was a top 5 pick as a DT, not a 2-gap 3-4 DE. If the 2008 draft were re-done, where would Dorsey have gone as a 2-gap 3-4 end? It certainly wouldn't have been top 5 that's for sure. I wouldn't have put him ahead of 2nd rounder Calais Campbell (pick 50). Hell, at 6'1 297, Dorsey wouldn't have gone before our own 3rd rounder Kendall Langford if I were drafting. What made him special and a top 5 pick was his ability as a 1 gap DT; it's his fault KC changed schemes and made him undergo a positional change.
I already agreed with your original point, and understood it just fine. IMO, WADR, Wake as a 3-4 DE wasn't a realistic example to support your point. It would be about the same as saying what if Troy Polamalu had been played at corner.
I don't think Dorsey being a 2-gap DE has been all that adverse to his career. If he was good at pass rusher and getting his *** kicked in situations he was playing as a 2-gap end, yeah, but it's the reverse. He's been quite good as a 2-gap end, and when they've put him in his "natural" position in pass defense situations he's been awful. His height has ended up being beneficial for him too I think in that role, as he's got the reach of a 6'4"+ guy, and it comes with a lower center of gravity. Not really sure what this has to do with drafting a DT higher or not. The draft is weird like that at any position.
Your wife is an ignorant lady ...who is as big as Glenn Dorsey. Seriously though, the position change argument rarely holds water as an excuse for a top 5 friggin talent. Sent from my MB855 using Tapatalk 2
Just saying, with Dorsey changing from a 1-gap DT to a run-stuffing 2-gap DE out of scheme necessity, he wasn't worth a top 5 pick. True, he still developed into a quality player, but it's not nearly at a level equal to his draft status IMO. We got the same or greater production from a 3rd round pick in '08. Who knows what Dorsey's ability as a backfield menace would currently be like had he remained at 3 technique DT and spent the past 5 years developing there rather than trying to transform himself into a run-stuffing end. When Dorsey came out of LSU, what position between 1-gap DT and 2-gap DE would you have said he had the best chance to excel at in the NFL?
It does hold water if your position change takes you from being a 1-gap DT to a 2-gap end. What's the role of a 2 gap end? To basically stuff the run and eat up blocks so your linebackers can make plays. Different job description. According to your argument there should be no excuse for Brady to not become a great read option QB since he's a top 5 talent and all.
Nice comparison man!! (Idiot) And has Dorsey played 3-4 DE his entire career?? Exactly. Sent from my MB855 using Tapatalk 2
Only 4 of 5 years, and his ratings according to PFF have not been too bad. Overall in his 4 yrs at 3-4 RDE his ratings has been positive. -2.0, 6.8, 5.4, and 1.8.
It would be very interesting to see what Dorsey could do in our D, next to Soliai, playing the Geno Atkins role.
