Draft strategy depends on what kind of team we want to be.

Excellent as usual Good Will Hunting. The only thing I'd change would be listing James and Bitonio as 1st/2nd round guys.

 

I view it more in terms of adding to what we have than simply taking my he most talented player.

Youre right we dont really have the quick pop WR who runs 50 yards after the catch. But we do have guys who are reliable, which is an underrated skill set IMO.

Defensively you can never have enough pass rushers but we are pretty close to reaching that point with Wake, Vernon and Jordan. It's going to be pretty hard to find a guy, first round or not, who can crack the rotation. CB is another spot we could add to, but Grimes is locked in, Finnegan, Taylor, Davis are fighting for a spot and Wilson has proven to be a decent a slot CB. LB might be worth a shot but we are stuck w Ellerbe, Wheeler, Misi for this year, Jenkins showed some promise, Jordan is still a possiaibility at LB too. It's another highly crowded spot to invest a high pick on.

Clay is is a decent TE, Sims is still in the mix, are we giving up on him after one season? Taking another TE high is basically doing just that. Ditto for Egnew.

Moreno, Miller, Thomas, Gilly are at RB, not much room there.

Pretty much every where you look the ROI seems pretty low compared to TE potential gains on the OL. Its boring but controlling the LOS is still the biggest indicator of who's going to win games in the NFL.

 

Honestly it isn't practical. When you look at all of the picks we've spent/wasted on olinemen we should easily have a top 5 oline right now. Instead we had to hand out a huge FA contract, sign a few guys and we are going to spend multiple picks in this years draft as well. It shows you what bad drafting will do for you. Brandon Marshall is exactly the kind of player a young Qb needs.....yep, I agree there, we traded a future HOF WR for some draft picks.....brilliant.

 

I think those that support taking a receiver in the first round over offensive line are the very ones that will criticize the front office for not fixing the OL when that mid round pick tackle proves that he is not ready to be a starter in the NFL yet.

 

And also they will frequently argue that a WR is the BPA, when in fact they are arguing that is a bigger need.

 

Not this guy. I also think there is a good chance that the first round pick tackle proves he is not ready to be a starter in the NFL yet.

 

Thats over simplifying the issue. The line Philbin wants is entirely different from what was built for Sparano and outside of Pouncey it had to be rebuilt from scratch.

 

thanks Pappy. I left James & Bitonio in the 2nd round category because there's no way we take either at 19 and b/c one or the other, or both, should be there in round 2, even if it requires a short trade up. Ireland had a 1st round grade on Martin but waited for him till round 2nd since he was far from a 1st round lock, and I think Hickey will do the same with JaWuan James.

Perhaps Hickey was eyeballing Bitonio in round 2, possibly as a fallback to James, but with all the talk of him going late 1st/early 2nd, Hickey backed off b/c he doesn't want to use a 1st on him, hence bringing in Billy Turner last week as the new plan B should JaWuan James not make it to 50.

 

Maybe but when a team spends the kind of picks we have the line should be good, it is kind of simply really. We've spent more high draft picks on the oline than probably any other team in the league and have had nothing to show for it. We had to go and fix our line via free agency after years of spending our top picks on the oline. It is kind of simply really.

 

You think the rumor of the Dolphins being interested in trading up to the Vikings' 8th pick holds any truth? If they really are looking for a WR in round 1, then I'd think they'd be interested in a Mike Evans (or Sammy Watkins, if he fell) in that situation...

 

A rookie is a rookie. Let's not pretend that we can draft a RT and he's going to come in and shut it down on the right side.

The best part about these debates is that no matter what, in time, we will know what we should have done. If Cooks or Beckham and any of these other high end WR end up tearing it up this season and we still struggle to score points, you can take comfort in knowing that we have a highly rated RT. Especially if some of these high end players end up in our division.

The bottom line is, these kids are coming into the NFL and are going to play somewhere. If it's not going to be in Miami then we had better be ready to not only defend these guys, but outscore these offenses.

I'm not the fan that wants a fancy skill player every pick. I understand the importance of building a complete team. But this particular team has had no dynamic or explosiveness to it for as long as I can remember. When was the last time anyone feared this offense? And furthermore, wouldn't you as a fan enjoy watching the games more if the team had more impact skill players?

 

That's f***ing ridiculous, not to mention straw & circular. Firstly, as for the "ridiculous" part, Miami already has 2 bleeping first rounders at LT and C. Therefore, what you're suggesting is 60% of the O-line needs to be comprised of stud first rounders to be successful, and that's beyond absurd. Three first rounders would be good for most in the NFL if I recall correctly, yet somehow you think less than three translates to failure. Unbelievable.

Secondly, as for the "straw man and circular logic" parts, your argument is based on a false premise, one that you intentionally contrived to make it fit your straw argument, per usual. Who the bleep here suggested waiting till the middle of the draft to take a right tackle?!! Open your bleeping eyes, or go back to remedial math, because taking a borderline tier 1 RT with a top 50 pick in a draft that richer in tackle talent like we're suggesting is clearly NOT the bleeping same as taking a tier 3 RT in the middle of the draft.

Thirdly, the last part of your post about "not being ready to start in the NFL yet" is even more absurd and hypocritical considering your opposition is talking about taking JaWuan James who has 37 consecutive starts against top competition at the position we'd be drafting him for, yet you're suggesting a player with no history at right tackle and who might end up better suited at guard will undeniably contribute at right tackle quicker.


The problem with Miami hasn't been the resources thrown at the offensive line, genius; the problem has been the player selections with those resources. $25 million and $29 million SHOULD buy you great starters at guard and center; instead they got us the often-injured and short-lived Smiley & Grove. A #1 overall pick SHOULD buy you 10+ years of stellar LT play; instead it got us another player cut short by injury. A #42 pick SHOULD net a damn good right tackle; instead it bestowed upon us a giant p****. A pair of 3rd rounders at guard SHOULD net you a pair of quality starters like the rest of the league; instead we got one of Sparano's failed choices who doesn't fit the current scheme and an unproven player who remains TBD.

You apparently want to draft out of fear, and that's a pretty weak way to go about it. If Hickey and his staff have confidence in their ability to find a starting right tackle in round two like most of the rest of the league are capable, especially in a deep draft where there's borderline 1st round talent further into the 2nd round, then there's no reason to bypass top talent in the 1st round in order to overdraft right tackle.

 

Long and Pouncey were first rounders, Martin was a 2 Jerry was a 3 as was Thomas. That's five picks in the last 6 drafts, netting two Pro Bowlers, one starter, a bust, and a TBD on Thomas. I don't think that's anything out of the ordinary.

The Eagles for example spent 1st round picks for both OTs, to go along with Mathis and Kelce, two very good interior linemen. I'd assume most Philly fans are happy with the results.

 

You know we agree 90% of the time but you're in fantasy land on this one.

You act like it'll be so easy to find a plug and play RT later in the draft, fantasy. Like there won't be viable WRs past the first round, more fantasy. Like fixing the OL isn't the most important issue facing the team right now, the ultimate fantasy.

Ryan Tannehill needs better protection and a more balance offense overall so he's not being asked to carry the offense. Miller and the other backs need holes to run through so we can find that balance. Wallace needs more time to run his vertical routes. With a solid 5 man pass pro unit the backs can leak out instead of being anchored in the backfield to guard against leaks. All of that trumps the "need" for a shiny new WR, if winning games is your top priority.

 

In all honesty, the WR class is pretty deep this year. I wouldn't mind taking one in the second or third round.

 

One interesting 4-5th round RT prospect is Charles Siddoway #77 from Miss St. I really like his athleticism and fundamentals. He can play.

[video=youtube;ydrgJ0V1xY4]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ydrgJ0V1xY4[/video]

 

No one is arguing that RT isn't a huge need. Hell, no one is arguing that it isn't our biggest need. All we're saying is that starting caliber RTs can easily be had at 50, while a dynamic skill player probably can't. Its not saying one position is more important than the other, its saying the stock to buy from is limited in the dynamic skill department and is overstocked in the RT department. This is about maximizing impact. If you're presented with a 90/100 RT or a 90/100 WR at 19, but at 50 your options are a 85/100 RT or an 75/100 WR, then you take the 90 WR @ 19 and the 85 RT @ 50. You've then drastically bettered your team at two positions.

 

The more I think about Evans the more I think he is special. 6'5", arms over 35" and a 37" vertical w/ 4.5 speed. And he wants the damn ball every time. More special than an RT. Got to roll the ball on any other "issues" w/ this skill set. Downside is we can't touch him at 19.

 

I made a thread about needing more players who could make plays with the ball in their hands if we were trying to replicate Green Bay's offense and you told me we were fine and then proceeded to list the combined yards after catch our receiving group had accumulated even though Wallace, Keller, and Gibson's production all came from different teams.

Don't feel bad though, many disagreed with me back then, they all thought our unit was good enough...fast forward a year later and now everyone's putting a right tackle on the back burner, foaming at the mouth to add another weapon for Tannehill after realizing this group is lacking.

I think CK was really the only one who saw eye to eye with me.

 

What I'm arguing is that there is no 90/100 WR, not unless his name is Sammy Watkins. The rest of those guys will need time to develop and I'm philosophically opposed to taking a WR in the first unless he's gonna get off the bus making big plays, as a rookie.

Is it all that unreasonable to go after a Steadman Bailey, Keenan Allen, TY Hilton, Randal Cobb type?

 

I dont think Eagles fans would be happy with a number one overall pick not being with the team anymore with no compensation and a 2nd round pick being traded off for peanuts or if their line was the worst in the league last year, thats a really bad example you made there. Our line was historically bad after wasting all of those picks, the situations are not even remotely similar at all.

 

Here's the list of starting 1st round right tackles who were specifically drafted for the position compared it to their 2nd round counterparts.
[TABLE="class: grid, width: 850"]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]1st round RT[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]notes[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]2nd round RT[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]notes[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Anthony Davis[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]arguably a top 5 RT[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Sebastian Vollmer[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Arguably the NFL's best RT[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]DJ Fluker[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]looked like a potential top 5 RT
before moving to LT[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Phil Loadholt[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]2013 PFF 1st Team All Pro RT[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Gosder Cherilus[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]good but not great RT.
Underwhelming first 3 years.[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Orlando Franklin[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Led all tackles in Pass Block Efficiency
in 2013 per PFF. PFF's #5 RT in '12.[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Justin Pugh[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]2013 All Rookie Team[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Mitchell Schwartz[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]2012 All Rookie. PFF's #13 RT in 2013.[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Jeff Otah
[cut short by injury][/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Average RT. Wouldn't have been
a 1st rounder on a draft do-over.[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Marcus Gilbert[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]inconsistent starter[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
*Keep in mind Anthony Davis and DJ Fluker were both #11 overall picks, so it's probably a little unreasonable to expect Zack Martin at #19 to match their right tackle production, especially if he ends up being moved to guard, which isn't out the realm of possibility.

[TABLE="class: grid, width: 400"]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Pro Bowl & All Pro Right Tackles
past 10 years[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Draft Status[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Sebastian Vollmer [AP][/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Round 2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]David Stewart [AP][/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Round 4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Willie Anderson [AP & PB]
{drafted as a LT}[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Round 1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Jon Jansen [AP][/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Round 2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Tyson Clabo [PB][/TD]
[TD="align: center"]undrafted[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]John Stinchcomb [PB][/TD]
[TD="align: center"]undrafted[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

[TABLE="class: grid, width: 400"]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Top 10 Right Tackles in NFL[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Draft Status[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Sebastian Vollmer[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Round 2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Phil Loadholt[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Round 2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Doug Free[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Round 4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Demar Dotson[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]undrafted[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Orlando Franklin[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Round 2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Anthony Davis[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Round 1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Andre Smith[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Round 1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Zach Streif[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Round 7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Eric Winston[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Round 3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]DJ Fluker[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Round 1[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
*Like Willie Anderson above, Andre Smith was drafted as a franchise LT, thus Cincy used greater resources to acquire him [IE: the #6 overall pick].

 

Who said anything about irresponsibly "finding a plug and play RT" later in the draft?.... or, when is a top 50 pick deemed as "later in the draft"? A mid 2nd on a RT is far from ignoring the position bubs.

You say I'm living in fantasy land? I'm not the one suggesting an O-lineman is a bonafide plug-and-play quality starter at RT despite almost no prior experience there, despite possibly being a tad overmatched as a rookie RT at just 6'4 308 with shorter 32 7/8 arms, and who is FAR from guaranteed to remain at RT. Meanwhile, my argument is for the talented 6'7 311 pounder with long 35 inch arms at pick 50 who's accustomed to top competition and WON'T be tasked with a positional change, nor its related adjustment woes, since he's already an experienced 37 game starter at RT. JaWuan James is the plug-and-play RT. The only adjustment he has to make is to the competition; meanwhile Martin has to adjust to both the competition and a position change.

So how'd last year's #1 & #2 overall picks do during their first years at RT? Fisher was terrible, one of the league's worst RT's, and at 306 pounds was overwhelmed on the right side at times against bigger NFL ends and 5-techs. Joeckel was nearly as bad prior to injury.

And the #4 pick? Lane Johnson had a year's worth of RT starting experience at Oklahoma, and thus not surprisingly, he adjusted to NFL right tackle by mid season and was well ahead of Fisher & Joeckel at RT.

And the #11 pick? Hey guess what, the guy who actually started 36 games at RT in the SEC and looks the part of an NFL RT, not left tackle or guard but RIGHT TACKLE, actually had the greatest impact at RT despite not being as overall "talented" as the top 3. It's not about who's the most talented in general but who best fits the specific position. If this were last year and we had the #1 pick but could only draft a RT, you would've argued Fisher is the guy b/c he's the highest on the board [due to his LT potential] while calling me crazy for wanting Fluker whom I thought was the draft's best RT prospect. How good of a RT is Zack Martin if he gets moved to guard?... and what do we do with a newly drafted 2014 guard and last year's 3rd rounder should he develop, and what do we do at RT in this scenario now that it has a vacancy? Not only would we be wasting a guard or two but we'd have to find another RT. Since RT is our biggest O-line need, it's safer and smarter to target the better RT prospect than the best overall lineman, ensuring RT is at least locked up. If you think we can't be successful w/o a 1st rounder at RT then I don't know what to say. It'd be a new precedent in the NFL.

How 'bout the #163 pick? You'd think Jordan Mills would be night and day inferior at RT compared to the #1 overall pick. Nope. Although he was inconsistent and unreliable at times, he was still a BETTER plug-and-play RT than Fisher. Gee I wonder if that's b/c he had 29 starts at RT in college and didn't have to retrain himself to do the mirror opposite. Coinkydink? I think not.

 

"Viable" WR and "impact" WR are two different things, and we're CLEARLY in need of the latter. It's fantasy that you think they're one in the same and that playmakers can be as readily and assuredly found in rounds 2 and beyond as they can in round 1. I've already highlighted how false that belief is, which you've ignored, as well as ignored the integral downfield and YAC aspects of Philly's offense which Lazor is bringing wit him. While you're preoccupied with the smaller picture of, "OMG our season is doomed without our RT being a 1st rounder", I'm busy focusing on the bigger picture of ensuring Lazor has the proper WR/TE/RB personnel to allow his scheme, which revolves heavily around vertical concepts and YAC, to be implemented to its fullest.

Now, you keep mentioning how Philbin doesn't play rookies at WR/TE yada yada as an excuse to not draft one high. So then what do you suggest, ignore the position forever or grab a revolving door of unexciting late round guys? Your logic is backward. If Philbin doesn't like to play rookies and Lazor is implementing a new offense, then it would make more sense, not less, to draft the WR now so that at least he'd be ready next year and thus not further delaying Lazor's offense.

Just b/c RT is the greatest single position need, that doesn't mean it needs to be filled with our greatest draft pick. Hypothetically, what happens if Sturgis craps the bed and kicker becomes our biggest need next year? You gonna go Al Davis on us and pine for a 1st round kicker, too? Fantasy.

Yeah, and??? Why do you insist on talking about this as if we're dealing with the difference between a 1st rounder and an undrafted FA? What's the hang up with thinking a mid 2nd rounder on RT is some sort of irresponsible, reprehensible act? We already have 2 solid first rounders at the 2 most important O-line positions, plus an underrated, promising guard, yet you act like we're the 2012 Cardinals in need of a complete O-line makeover and no option but to draft the best lineman on the board in the 1st round.

 

One thing you should keep in mind is there are several teams that need offensive tackles out there and the run on offensive tackles in the 1st round can often go deep.

I'm reminded of 2008 when 7 total tackles got taken in the 1st round. Guys like Duane Brown and Sam Baker snuck in there despite many believing they'd go in the 2nd round prior to the draft. As recently as 2011 a total of 6 tackles were taken in the 1st round with guys like Derek Sherrod, Gabe Carimi and James Carpenter sneaking into the round despite open questions of their viability as left tackles. Last year Justin Pugh went 19 overall despite being openly questioned as a 1st round pick due to his not being viable as a left tackle.

Similarly would it surprise anyone if after the consensus top four went (Matthews, Robinson, Lewan and Martin), another two guys like Morgan Moses and JaWuan James went in the 1st round as well?

Try and get cute about the values by moving down and such and don't be surprised if you lose your prize altogether. Just a thought.

It's unfortunate the Dolphins have put themselves in position of needing a tackle and guard immediately but that's the position they put themselves in despite having cap space.

 

I agree and that's the problem, if we get cute and trade down or out of the first round we might be looking at having to draft a guy that has possibly a late 2nd-3rd round grade instead of a 1st rounder. I think there are going to be 5-7 tackles taken in the first round possibly 8 or 9, if we pass on one at 19 we might be looking at taking project type players or hoping a serious reach pans out. I think we need one of the top 4-5 tackles in this draft. I would be more in favor of trading up to get one versus moving down and hoping the draft plays out well for us. If Matthews drops to 8 or 10 we might actually be able to move up and get him and I would be in favor of that.

 

NFL Insiders was just talking to Farmer about all of their draft picks and he said "the phone lines are open," so obviously he is pretty open to some kind of trade. Can't wait for next week.

 

I think I got to the point where I don't care anymore, I just want it to be over.

 

That's a bummer, you should be excited. I"m excited for sure.

 

It is taking so long. How many mock drafts can one person read before they are like, "come draft already!"

 

Yeah, a little tedious. Maybe stay away from any news for a couple of days. You'll probably be dying to see what you missed........which won't be much.

 

That might help. Just so used to reading too much about who Miami picked by now. They moved my Christmas back.

 

I'm with you. The last two or three weeks I haven't even been able to bring myself to watch much tape of guys that would fill in some of the gaps of my draft evaluation of this year's class. I'm already more curious about sorting out next year's class.

I just want the thing to be done so that I can either explain why the draft made me fairly happy (e.g. 2012) or why it made me fairly sad (e.g. 2013).

 

I am. I'm planning a 4 day weekend for it.

 

based on who Hickey & Co are looking at, I thinking this draft could make me fairly happy.

 

Careful what you say.