Draft strategy depends on what kind of team we want to be.

Exactly.

 

The 19th pick won't be making any real dent in the cap if that's what you're worried about. Even with Albert's new contract our top 3 wideouts will be making more than the entire OL combined.

And trusting your ability to evaluate applies to all positions, WR included. I'm not buying that all of the good WRs will be gone, we need depth at that position, not starters, and depth can be found deep in the draft.

 

We are a step behind because we do not make the playoffs and our offense has been below average for a long long time. Teams that draft OL in the top 10 picks are drafting left tackles. We already have that. In fact, we already have solidified the 2 most important OL positions in LT and C. We should be able to fill in the rest with guys that can fit into the scheme. Seriously, do we really need an entire OL of first rounders to compete? This offensive line as a huge need has been way overblown.

 

Another thing to consider is this. If the WR class is deep this year, then wouldn't we want to grab a couple of the higher end ones? If there are 15-20 good ones and we get the #10 rated WR, did we get a jump on the other teams? What if the Jets, Bills, and Pats each grab 1 or 2 good playmakers in this draft? We need to draft better ones and more of them. That means drafting skill players early.

 

I look at it as, is there really that much of adifference between a mid first round right tackle and a second round one in the grand scheme of things when it comes to overall offensive success? We have 1st rounders at LT and C, so I think we can get by with a 2nd round RT, if you can call a 2nd round RT "getting by". Personally, I feel acquiring a 1st round WR who fits Lazor's scheme and allows him to open his playbook will mean more to the offense than a 1st round RT will.

 

Demar Dotson is Tampa's current right tackle and is one of the best in the league. The Bucs grabbed him as an undrafted rookie FA in '09. Not sure how much influence Hickey had on that signing but it's at least worth mentioning.

 

the scenario I like the most is a move down to the late 1st (swapping with SF with #19 to #30 is a possibility, they have three 3rds so they'll have no problem losing one to move up like they did last year for Eric Reid). that way if we pass on an offensive lineman with the first pick, we have ammo with two 3rds to move up into the early 2nd and take a Morgan Moses or Kouandjio or some other tackle. even after trading up, we still have a pick in the 3rd.

something like:

- move down, gain a 3rd
#30) Shazier/Cooks
- trade up, lose a 3rd
#35) Moses
#77/81) CB/OL/WR.

 

I like this and I like those players too.


More picks = more chances.

 

I see it the exact opposite. How much better is this 1st round WR than the guys we have now? IMO the only WRs who are worth a 1st rounder are guys who will come in and produce right away. AJ, Julio, Dez, Sammy types.

 

How many do you think qualify as immediate producers?

 

For Miami, Sammy Watkins is the only instant producer. Maybe Evans or Benjamin bc of their size. The rest of em I think will need to develop before they even play significant snaps for us, especially with the way this staff has handled rookies so far.

 

It's all about opportunity. Even one play could change game or a season. Patterson was a late first rounder last year and he made some game changing plays for the Vikes.

All of these guys could make a huge impact right away as 1st/2nd round picks...
- Cooks
- Beckham
- Lee
- Robinson
- Matthews
- Benjamin

All of these guys are different types of players than what we currently have and would instantly improve the offense. A few of them would improve the return game also.

If you look at Jordan Matthews combine numbers, they are very close to AJ Green. Then when you consider how productive Matthews was in college, I think you have nice value pick in round 2.

 

Good no, content? Yes. But mainly it's that outside of Sammy and KB I don't see the value in taking a WR in the first.

 

A lot. I've said for a while now that I feel Odell Beckham is another Victor Cruz, a movable chess piece of a WR who can line up at all 3 positions, impact at every level of the field, and make defenders miss with the ball in his hands. That type of versatility is something we currently don't have, and when you listen to what Wallace says about Lazor, as well as watch Philly's offense last year, it's clear that Lazor's philosophy and playbook is predicated upon having a versatile player like that. Sherman's horizontal stretch offense is gone. With Lazor wanting to implement more vertical concepts and utilizing players in space, he needs the receivers capable of allowing him such. Therefore, that easily trumps RT in my opinion b/c a right tackle is still a right tackle. Zach Martin or Morgan Moses won't facilitate Lazor's offensive philosophy or blow open his playbook any more than JaWuan James would.

Let's just look at it from Giants' perspective here b/c that's a good personnel comparison.

• Beckham is Cruz.
• Zach Martin is Justin Pugh, coincidentally the 19th pick last year who can play guard or tackle.
• JaWuan James is Will Beatty, a 2nd round tackle.
• The 2nd round receiver [Martavis Bryant, Donte Moncrief] is Rueben Randle, the Giant's 2nd round WR of 2012.

By my scenario of choice we go after Cruz & Beatty. Your scenario targets Pugh & Randle. Who wins? I do of course. The reason Randle wasn't a first rounder is the same reason he still hasn't emerged as a reliable, impact receiver in NY's offense, just like many 2nd round receivers don't develop into the impact receiver you hoped for. And now that NY is losing ex 1st rounder Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz stated last night on NFLN that it would be a huge benefit to NY's offense to grab one of those 1st round receivers to replace the loss of Nicks and provide that presence on the outside that they're lacking with Nicks gone and that they haven't yet gotten from Randle.

Meanwhile, the Giants' offensive tackle doesn't HAVE to be an impact tackle; they can win with him being a good tackle just as they won a SB with an average overall Oline, and personally, I have serious reservations about dubbing the 6'4 308 pound Zach Martin a Pro Bowl right tackle. As a right tackle I see minimal difference between he and JaWuan James. As a guard he's obviously a potential Pro Bowler, but again, an offense doesn't HAVE to have Pro Bowlers at guard to operate at a high level. You can put up 50 points a game with just good guards, which you can find in the 3rd round like Detroit did last year with the stud Larry Warford who IS a likely Pro Bowler. Miami doesn't NEED another impact interior lineman, nor another receiver with potential limitations; we need a versatile, impact receiver like the Titanic needed floaties, and if we have a chance to get him in round 1 via Beckham or Cooks, I wouldn't pass on that to draft a tackle or guard that could adequately be filled in the 2nd or 3rd round. We have one of the NFL's best pass protecting left tackles and the NFL's best center. We're far from desperation mode like the 2012 Cardinals, Giants, or Chargers where we're left with no choice but to add a mid to high first round guard or right tackle. How many teams feature 1st rounders at tackle and another 1st at the interior? If Hickey can't pull a decent RT out of the 2nd round or beyond, then he doesn't deserve to be a GM.

 

Are you seriously comparing Beckham to an All-Pro? An All-Pro that came to NY as an UDFA I might add.

I concede that an OT can be found later, just like a WR can be found later. Wallace in the 3rd, Hartline 4th, Matthews 6th, Keenan Allen had 1st round talent and went in the 3rd. There will be WRs available later in the draft...

It's ironic you bring up Philly bc they took a RT fourth overall last year. They just released their best WR as well.

RT is the position where we have to find a starter and have him ready to play a major role, WR is a spot where we have 4 proven guys. And we all know how Philbin and his staff tend to treat rookies, especially at the skill positions. I think you're severely over thinking on this one.

 

One of the reasons I believe Hickey will steer toward monsters at right tackle like Morgan Moses or Cornelius Lucas. JaWuan James with his 82 inch (6'10") wing span also qualifies.

They may like Joel Bitonio and Zack Martin at left guard, that would be in their history, but I don't believe they would like either player for their right tackle position.

 

Personally I don't think Odell Beckham is all that good. I've seen a lot of his games now. It's always the same. Those teams that are scared to death of his deep ability (4.40 speed) give him free space to run and catch balls underneath their deep off coverage, but he doesn't do crap after the catch and he's not that difficult for even average corners (for the SEC, let alone the NFL) to stay with deep. When players get physical with him in coverage, he wilts.

This above all is why he was not able to be consistent in 2013. It wasn't the quarterback. Look at Jarvis Landry as an example. Do something simple like converting the two WRs game by game production into typical fantasy scoring, and then run a standard deviation. Landry's standard deviation was about HALF that of Beckham's, because he was a consistent player that could produce in multiple ways.

Odell Beckham's best two games came against UAB and Furman. If you exclude those he averaged 74 yards and 0.3 TDs per game. Not a very interesting wide receiver.

I certainly don't think he adds enough to the team to consider him in the 1st round. That would be a BAD draft pick.

 

Damn. That is an eyeopening little piece of info there. Yeah ok, for a #2 WR in today's pass happy game then 1184 yds and 5 TDs a season is ok. But people are talking about Odell in the mid 1st, where you want to take difference makers at WR. He isn't of the class of top 1st round WRs of recent vintage then. Why not wait until round 3 and take Jarvis Landry if ya want a LSU WR?

 

That's 74 yards and 0.3 TDs per game against college opponents. His other great game was against Mississippi State and man was there some awful coverage going on in that game. He also produced one of his few other touchdowns of the season against Kent State. I mean you exclude Kent State, UAB and Furman and you have a guy that scored 2 touchdowns in 10 games.

 

I'm talking about playing the draft relative to where the team is, that's where the disconnect seems to be. Fix the OL. Everything else is gravy.

 

Where is the team? Have we had a bad line the past 20 years? What is causing us to fail?

Lack of playmakers.

Man, I could go on and on for days about this offense and what a failure it has been through the years for so many reasons and almost none of it is attributed to the OL being weak.

 

I respect your knowledge on players. I just don't get this one. The kid looks like exactly the type of player that we need. Nice upgrade on returns also. Why are so many scouts high on this kid if he's as bad a #19 draft pick as you say he is?

 

You just read. He is a below average receiver against good teams and pad his stats against teams that it should be illegal for his team to play.

 

That doesn't explain why scouts are still high on this kid. Here is a recent draft profile written a couple of days ago. It appears to be fairly objective..............
http://www.fftoday.com/blog/2014/04/23/wr-odell-beckham-jr-draft-profile/

 

Not all scouts are high on him or pretty much anyone. People are going to have different opinions. Some look at athleticism, some look at results.

 

I would be interested to read some negative scouting reports if you have them. For the record I like Cooks better but Beckham would still be a nice addition if Cooks is gone IMO.

 

The scouting report you showed has some weaknesses.

However the question is, why are his stats only decent against good teams. If you have some tape, it would be a good idea to look at it.

I just skim scouting reports, however I do respect CK's opinion on the draft. He generally does a lot of work for his opinion.

 

Scouts love his pure running and cutting ability (which is about as good as it gets while being about a 4.40 speed guy) and he's got good hands. He played in a pro style offense running routes that they recognize and feel like can translate.

But are we now pretending that the NFL doesn't get it wrong on players at an extremely high rate? Are we now pretending that contrasting opinions are untenable?

Because I can guarantee you not every one of those 32 teams thinks highly of him. Matter of fact, we don't even know what the teams think of him. People just think they know what the teams think of him.

 

What does Doug Orth's opinion of Odell Beckham have to do with the idea that "scouts" have a consensus high opinion of Odell Beckham?

That's not a knock on Doug Orth. He is who he is and I'm sure he's a wonderful evaluator. But even being a wonderful evaluator inherently means being wrong more often than right.

 

I hear ya. I'm new on here but have been reading his posts over the past few months and he knows his stuff. I realize that questioning his judgement is message board suicide but I like to undrestand why his view is so different from the majority.

 

I would have Beckham ahead of Landry as well. It's my position that Landry's being so far above Beckham functions to show Beckham's hidden weaknesses rather than Landry's viability as a pro.

 

The post-NFL world is littered with players with consensus approval by scouts.

 

If that were really true this board would be very empty.

 

No it isn't. I question his judgement all of the time. A lot of people do. This isn't a board where if you upset the wrong person no one will like you.

I would suggest bringing more than, "Why are scouts so high on him?" in the point of discussion. It seemed to me kind of confrontational.

This is a pretty good board. If you act respectful, people are generally respectful back, even if they don't agree with you. There are people like me who are just sarcastic jerks though.

 

That was the most recent posted evaluation on the web that I could find from 2 days ago. I was hoping that I wouldn't get called out for sending that link but I thought there would still be some relative value in it.