Draft shifts, for how, and which LONG?

You know those moments in cartoons when a light bulb appears above a characters head when something brilliant finally hits them?

I had one of those following Dolphins general manager Jeff Ireland's "Freudian slip." At least that's my vote of what it was.

I don't think Ireland's "pillar of defense" comment about what the Dolphins want with the No. 1 pick was intentional. After two days of debating it in my head, and with others, here's my take: It was a genuine mistake that was based on the fact he's considering three defensive players, and one offensive guy for that spot. But when Ireland realized he'd made the slip of tongue he quickly tried to turn it into a smoke screen that would benefit the Dolphins, and I think it's working.

Teams and draft analysts are now panicking, desperately trying to figure out what the Dolphins are doing, and how it will impact them.

Teams that want a particular prospect like LSU's Glenn Dorsey (think Atlanta), Virginia's Chris Long (think Oakland), Michigan's Jake Long (think Kansas City and Baltimore), or Ohio State's Vernon Gholston (think New York and New England) are getting antsy. There is uncertainty, which should ultimately benefits the Dolphins attempts to trade the pick.

The first pick is going to set the tempo for the entire draft, so it's not just the top 10 teams that are impacted. Everyone will feel a ripple or two.

Pick an offensive lineman No. 1 and there will be an immediate run made at that position which will impact the entire draft. There won't be enough linemen to go around in round one. More than half the NFL's 32 teams need offensive line help, so those who don't get one in round one will be picking up any and every respectable big man with decent feet in round two and crossing their fingers.

Take Dorsey, the draft's elite defensive tackle who is more suited for teams running a 4-3, and it alters just about everyone else's plans because the Falcons might be left to select Boston College's Matt Ryan, putting the Ravens in a bad spot. The Ravens could take a cornerback, which would put the Saints in a pickle.

If the Dolphins take Chris Long or Gholston there won't be enough defensive ends to go around for the teams in the second half of the first round, and that might leave an elite offensive lineman, receiver, or quarterback available to the Dolphins in the second round.

As most of you know, I've been sold on Jake Long being the Dolphins pick for well over a month now. After seeing him in person (big and lean) at the NFL combine, and watching a little film on Jake Long, I've been convinced he can be the Dolphins next Richmond Webb.

However, I'm starting to sway in another direction, which brings me to my light bulb moment.

I'm finally starting to think Chris Long's the guy (Boy am I stubborn!), sipping the Kool-Aid now that everyone else has moved onto a new flavor. Here's my reasoning?

1. I was given an endorsement from an executive I trust, whose team is so far down in the first round he has absolutely nothing at stake in sharing his opinions. As I've shared with you before on this blog, he said Chris Long's the type of player that every team wants on their squad because he'll set the tempo in practice and games. He also said Gholston only has a better first step than Long, but the athleticism each has is comparable, and Long's technique is superior.

2. The Dolphins haven't sniffed in Chris Long's direction since his Pro Day. No sniffing either means they have enough information, really don't like a prospect, or want to throw people off their trail. Since everyone likes Chris Long, who was coached by a Bill Parcells protege in Al Groh, and has already played in a 3-4 during college, how could they not? Since everyone initially assumed Chris Long was the guy, there was no trail to throw people off of. Soooooo, maybe it's Jake Long that's the smoke screen?

3. Ireland's "pillar of defense" and "face of the franchise" comments was telling. How can an offensive lineman be the face of the franchise. I'd still have trouble pointing Richmond Webb out in a lineup since he plays the most anonymous position in all of sports. Louis Oliver? No problem! Even if the Dolphins don't take Chris Long at No. 1, I suspect this draft will have a heavy defensive flavor, so why not start with No. 1.

4. Long can play two positions for sure in the 3-4, coming into the game as a defensive end on third downs, and working as a outside linebacker on other downs. That might alleviate the issues of trying to get him, Joey Porter and Jason Taylor on the field together at the same time. I also think Chris Long's football IQ, work ethic, and speed (4.71 in the 40) MIGHT make it possible for him to develop into a middle linebacker in time. It's a long shot, but there's a chance.

5. Of all the player who could possibly be Mr. No. 1, I think Chris Long will work the hardest to live up to responsibility and money ($30 million guaranteed) that comes with that spot. To be real honest for a minute, if you give me $30 million I wouldn't know what to do with myself. But I do know hard work, or work hard (whichever order you want to put those two words) wouldn't be on my list of things to do.

6. Why Long over Gholston, whom the Dolphins apparently seem enamored with because he reminds them of Cowboys linebacker DeMarcus Ware? Because the one knock on Gholston is his motor, and that's Chris Long's strongest attribute.

7. It's risky to pass on the elite offensive lineman in this draft considering how big of a need the Dolphins have at that position. But head coach Tony Sparano, who has spent most of his years in the NFL coaching offensive linemen, might feel he and offensive line coach Mike Maser can work wonders with prospects taken in later rounds. It's a gamble, but one they might be willing to take if they stick to their draft board and never stray from their grades.

8. If contract talks with Jake Long have gone sour, which I suspect they have, it's very likely Chris Long and his representatives will take slightly more money than last year's No. 2 pick got.

With all that said, I'm still hoping the pick is Jake Long because I believe you have to build a strong line on offense before anything because it helps you running game, which helps your defense; and it allows you to FINALLY start developing a quarterback. But I have changed my second version of my Dolphins focused Mock Draft from the initial one, and that change sends ripple effects throughout the entire draft, which has been taking me FOREVER to figure out in mt latest mock draft.

And here's the point: Imagine what these G.M. and coaches are presently doing trying to figure out the cards the Dolphins are holding, and how it will impact their teams. Could some team be getting desperate?
link to rest of story
http://blogs.sun-sentinel.com/sports_football_dolphins/2008/04/draft-shifts-fo.html