Draft Countdown updated mock 12/17/12

They got the right position for Miami, but I'm not a big Mingo fan. I probably would have gone Dion Jordan there instead. Also Elam did not go in the first in that draft, which is a strong possibility in the actual draft as well. I'd be hoping to score Elam with our early 2nd rounder and then WR Austin with our later second. I'm sure some would want to reach for a CB here, but IMO that would be a mistake as the position has so little impact nowadays that you're better off going with a mid-level FA CB.

 

I don't see how T'eo will get past San Diego..their history with Seau being a major factor, and their culture needing an identity..

 

They've drafted a few ILB prospects the past few years - I know Donald Butler. And Takeo Spikes is STILL playing good football. They've got other holes.

 

That team needs to gut itself, and replace it with leadership, cause it lacks it in a big way..

I misspelled Seaus name in my post...the connection there is strong and spikes is 36.. He makes a lot of sense to them imo.

 

Playmakers in the secondary are huge IMO. Elam and Reshad Jones makes me moist.

 

You think they both have enough coverage skills to keep us from getting killed in the passing game though?

I see them both closer to SSs than FSs.

I love Jones and Elam I just don't know how they would compliment eachother.

 

Phillip Thomas is consistently underrated I think. Has 8 interceptions for Fresno State this year, 3 of them returned for TDs. Not to mention 4 forced fumbles. Didn't play in 2011, but had 3 interceptions in 2010, with another 2 forced fumbles. Had 2 interceptions as a frosh in 2009 with another return TD. First player in Fresno State history to be named a unanimous All American. One of three finalists for the Jim Thorpe Award for best DB in the country (CB Johnathan Banks got it over Thomas and CB Dee Milliner). His 8 interceptions this year are more than 29 different FBS teams have in total. Total takeaways at 9 (one fumble recovery) is tied for most in the FBS. The 4 forced fumbles ranks 6th in the FBS nationally. Had 12.0 TFLs this year, as a safety, which ranks #3 in the Mountain West amongst all players including DLs and LBs.

The reason he missed 2011 was he suffered a broken leg and dislocated ankle in a non-contact drill 3 days before the start of the season. If he'd played in 2011 then I think there would've been more background done on him by the media leading into 2012, and that's probably why everyone is slow on the uptake with him.

This dude is a playmaker. I read one quote of a scout that said he's easily the best safety prospect to come out since Eric Berry and Earl Thomas came out.

 

Exactly, sort of, ball skills and tackling is now more crucial then the classic Cb "good run/no hit" Cb template

 

I've heard Aldon Smith comparisons for Mingo. I don't watch enough film to really have an educated opinion on this, but was wondering if any of you guys think the comparisons line up for both of them pre-draft.

 

I do not agree one bit. All you have to do is look at how defenses are playing to see that is not true.

 

I'm seeing more zone, less man, and more of a cushion in a RAC/YAC league guys have to have those skillsets over the classic bump and run/speed skill sets.

 

I don't find the former to be true.

 

I'm not a fan of Mingo.

That being said, he is very quick off the ball. Great first step and reaction time. That being said, he doesn't seem like a football player to me. I don't know how to further elaborate other than saying it looks like he is a bit soft and doesn't have great football IQ. The thing that frustrates me the most with him is he will beat his man have a clear shot to the QB and miss A LOT when the QB simply steps up or side steps. I guess that could be because he is playing too fast for his own good, but I've seen it sooo many times I almost expect him to miss.

He can get real low to the ground by bending his body, sort of how Cam Wake does around the corner. He uses this to get leverage and get below/around OTs. Not a good open field tackler. Tackles low (like around legs most of the time). Doesn't love contact or the game it seems.

I think his bust potential is very, very high.

 

I don't see a Mingo-Aldon Smith comparison.

 

If that's the way it goes down, I'm leaning towards Dion Jordan, Ezekial Ansah, Matt Elam, Phillip Thomas or Tyler Eifert .

 

Just watched some cut ups of both players (Mingo and Aldon Smith). Smith looks to be on another level compared to Mingo, Smith is the much better player. Thank you for the input, UCF and phinsational.

 

The only draftee comparable to Aldon Smith in my opinion is Ezekiel Ansah.

 

I agree with you on that. Just watched some film of Ansah and he reminded me a lot of Smith, body type and playing style. I liked the way he was always using his hands to punch and disengage blockers. Always finding a way to be involved in the play despite being double teamed a lot. Powerful, great athleticism, but looks like he moves with purpose and understands how to read the play where as Mingo seems like a chicken with its head cut off, at times.

Wake and Ansah, as a few posters here have said, bookending the d-line would be pretty awesome to see. Two freak athletes. Mix of power and speed.

 

yes, Aldon is the total package, plus he produces and has a nose for making plays. ATM Mingo is no more than a tease in my eyes. When you have a solid defense behind you and a talented end like Montgomery opposite you helping create disruption, how do you have just 4 sacks and no forced fumbles?

 

Ogletree worries me at ILB as well.... but his athleticism and speed are so tantalizing, to the point I wonder if you don't just let him become a big, intimidating strong safety ala Kam Chancellor. Watching how well the gifted Zach Brown is playing for Tennessee makes me curious how Ogletree could perform in a similar role. But then again, I thought Brown had a natural knack for getting to the QB, which I loved about him.

 

About as much of a comparison as Von Miller with Lamar Miller.

 

I know this opinion will be criticized but if Dion Jordan had quicker hands, he'd remind me of Aldon Smith a lot...albeit playing a different role in his defense. Then again that's kind of like saying if Justin Gatlin were faster he'd remind me of Usain Bolt.

 

I think it is instructive though to really dig back into what Aldon Smith was when he came out, especially as it relates to new guys that come out every year. Remember that when he came out, Aldon Smith was a lanky, physical and aggressive player with burst and movement skills, violent and quick hands...but not a guy that had showed a strong history of bending the arc on outside rush. I think in hindsight we want to say that he "showed it" but there are guys today that we talk about having trouble bending the arc or flattening the edge, that have also "showed it" at various points in their history, yet the criticism is still there because their tape isn't littered with it.

I think it's important to note that not everyone need be a Cameron Wake or Robert Mathis in that respect. There are other ways to be a star.

And of course the other thing to note about Aldon Smith is that when you stack up his Combine results at about 6'4" and 263 lbs, 4.74 in the 40, 9'10" broad jump, I think like a 34 or 35 inch vertical, 4.50 shuttle, 7.2 cone or thereabouts...I mean, good but not blowing the doors off anything.

 

One thing I think might merit some consideration is the length of some of the pass-rushers like Jordan and Mingo. I'm not sure how closely Kevin Coyle follows the principles of Mike Zimmer in terms of front seven players, but the Bengals have a good bit of length. Manny Lawson, Carlos Dunlap, and Michael Johnson are all 6'5" or taller, and all of them are playing on the edges of the defense for Cincinnati. Even some of their sub package players have some good length. They did have Jamaal Anderson earlier this year - he's on IR now, Emmanuel Lamur, a sub LB is 6'4". The only real exception to their edge players are Robert Geathers and Wallace Gilberry, but both are playing in that 275-285lbs range and move inside in sub packages.

I wonder if that's something to consider what Miami would be looking for in terms of another DE or pass-rushing LB. Odrick has that length. Cameron Wake is good enough to the point where it doesn't matter. But Olivier Vernon, Derrick Shelby, and Koa Misi are all 6'2" or 6'3". I wonder if someone like Dion Jordan would get more consideration as he adds a different element when coming off the edge than virtually anyone else on Miami's roster at this point in time.

Then again, it could be sheer coincidence.

 

Yes the burst and explosiveness do remind me of Anthony Barr. But the hands and pure aggressiveness jumped out on Aldon Smith just as quickly as the burst. He melted a lot of things together and that's why he's such a good football player. But I just think it's very instructive to know that one thing he didn't melt together was that rubbery, flexible outside rush bending the arc, dipping under the shoulder pads and coming back to the quarterback. It just wasn't there. It's used as a damning criticism on many defensive ends and I think it's important to note they don't need it.

 

As for Sean Porter's burst I think he's got to be graded on a different curve because this guy is clearly a linebacker. He looks like a linebacker, he plays like a linebacker, he thinks like a linebacker, he's a linebacker. I don't, nor have I ever, seen why so many people keep thinking of this guy as a DE/Pass Rusher. When he's blitzing (and his pass rushing IS all blitzing, which is different from normal pass rush), of course he's going to look nimble on his pins. All linebackers should. They're smaller and lighter on their feet than defensive linemen, and they commonly start out with more space to try and make moves. But he doesn't have the physical traits or hand use of a guy that would consistently rush the passer from a fixed position against offensive tackles. That would be a waste, in my opinion.

All that said, he looks to me like a pretty good linebacker. He's mobile, fairly aggressive though he doesn't show as much range as I'd like him to, good solid hand use in coverage and when dealing with trash, tackles well, strong player and he's got some burst to him. You could even see him being another Sean Weatherspoon.

 

I get so torn and frustrated on Barkevious Mingo.

If I had to tell you what part of his game is extraordinary it's clearly his mobility, burst and range. And when you're looking at his hands and physicality, there's enough there to protect himself and allow his strengths to impact the game. But the disturbing thing is you keep thinking that kind of burst and mobility should be impacting the game more than it is. He's just sort of almost-there on everything. Almost-there on how quickly he reads the play and sheds his block. Almost-there on getting off the snap to execute a speed rush. Almost-there on a deadly spin move that could threaten to be unstoppable at times. Almost-there on finding the passing lane and knocking down the ball. Almost-there on redirecting to the ball. Almost-there on staying on his feet through lateral force.

He's worth taking and seeing if he keeps developing, but at what price? You don't want to take a guy with an expensive asset and find out that motor plays are the only pass rush plays he's going to make and meanwhile he's slightly below mediocre against the run.

 

I've been a big proponent of exactly that for years. If there's one mistake I feel like I keep seeing out there over and over it's not enough grasp of that. It's intuitive and people know that it's a good truism but they don't show it enough in practice.

 

I think this is what the league is going to though Ck, the sort of heavy run games we've seen in the past are not as prevelant as the passing game we see now, inow if he can get after the passer he has a high value as a situational player.

Key is not over valuing him.

 

I don't see it, even if given quicker hands.

 

Sean Porter is still learning how to play with technique in pass coverage. He's shown improvement from last year.

 

And that is one of the keys moving forward, it used to be a Defender was required to be a good all around player, imo now you need defenders who can play the pass in coverage (reverse) and get after the Qb/pocket (forward).

Stopping the run is just not as important as it once was, hopefully whomever our GM is in 2013 realizes this and drafts accordingly.

Jared Odrick would be a model NFLer, in 1998, now, not so much for example.

 

Porter's instincts and/or play reading in the passing game definitely need work. But then, prior to 2012, same was true of Manti Te'o.