Draft Countdown updated mock 1/18/13

But would Ansah next to Odrick be better than Odrick next to Starks on third down?

 

What a goddamned waste of a first round pick. Do you think he has any trade value at all to a 3-4 team?

 

Great stuff KB.

Especially this "you may attack certain positions earlier in the draft because there’s lack of depth in the draft.”

Consider that in terms of how deep this draft is in good (but not great) WR prospects. I can't see Ireland feeling compelled to go WR early knowing there are lots of good 2nd round WRs. Deep at WR means we wait til round two. No Cordarrelle IMO.

 

How is Odrick a waste of a pick? Just because he is better at end than tackle? He played 950 snaps this season, so he was a significant contributor. Many of those snaps were at DT in the nickel. He was one of our top 2 run defenders among the DL this season.

 

Plus, at the time he was drafted, he was a guy coming off a season where he won the Defensive Player of the Year award in the Big 10 and was a team captain.

He wasn't a need guy, but after Miami traded down, he was a guy that had stacked horizontally in another tier and felt he was too good to pass on. I'm convinced that Miami was considering him at 12 that year.

Something else I think I am learing about Jeff Ireland and the philosophy he has learned over the years. When he gets a pass rusher early, it is someone who has produced. In Dallas, Jeff was the voice in the war room that convinced Jerry Jones to take DeMarcus Ware instead of Marcus Spears with their early 1st round pick in the 2005 draft. Ware was a guy who had amassed something like 35 sacks in 3 years at Troy. It was against a lower level of competition, but he produced.

The "pass rushers" that Miami may have available to them in this draft are guys who you have to project what they might do at the next level. Mingo had 4 sacks. Ansah 4.5 sacks. Jordan 6 sacks. I read something that was lauding Jordan for having 12 sacks in his last 20 games. Alex Okafor has 12 sacks in his last 13 games. Who is more productive? To me, Okafor is someone Ireland will be more likely to go with as far as pass rushers go. Productive, team captain, 3 year starter, Defensive POY in Big 12....keep an eye on him if they do decide to go with an end.

 

I just don't understand the logic behind trading away one of the better run stoppers in the league, who you signed at a reduced rate just to use the pick for a run stopper. What's wrong with depth?

Just not sure how this is better than us just drafting a quality passrusher and keep Solai

 

The guy got 15 sacks at LSU over the past 3 seasons. What makes you think he is going to get 10 or so sacks in a season as a pro with a better level of competition

 

Mingo would be a high reward high risk pick. Ireland does not make those.

 

How?

 

Mingo doesn't even reflect Bruce Irvin. Irvin was productive to go with his athleticism.

Also many in the media wasn't even projecting Irvin in the first round despite having 1st round talent.

 

You mean how taking him out of the game in certain situations is helpful to his development?

 

Because I doubt we draft a quality passrusher, since Ireland won't spend a high pick on a guy who isn't starting, and Odrick is starting at end since there is no space for him to start inside.

So is Soliai and a crappy pass rusher better than Odrick and a good pass rusher.

That's what I am asking myself.

 

Just his physical potential reminds me of Irvin. To make a fair comparison though, stats wise, if that is how we are going to decide if that comparison has any merit, is how many pass rush snaps did each one have during their time at West Va and LSU, and look at the ratio of sacks, hits, and hurries to pass rush snaps. I do not know how many pass rush snaps each one had, so I was going by more of an "on the hoof" similarity, in MY opinion. YMMV.
Irvin had 11 sacks in 393 pass rush attempts. I was speculating that Mingo has the physical tools to do something similar.

 

Odrick had only 1.5 sacks from the end position. That's playing first and second down all damned year from that spot and getting 1.5 sacks to show for it..
Wake, by comparison, had 5.5 sacks on first and second down from the end position.

Olivier Vernon managed 2.5 sacks from DE in relief of Odrick on third downs, specifically (he had another one on first down playing at another spot, I believe).
Cam Wake had 9.5 sacks from DE on 3rd down.

Cam Wake's rush production of 15 sacks from DE versus Odrick/Vernon's combined 4 sacks from the DE spot shows the disparity.

ANd usually, the number of QB hits and pressures/hurries is proportionally higher as well. So while Wake was having a massive impact on the passing game, the Odrick/Vernon combination was having very little, it appears.

That's why I feel it's important to upgrade our rush at that spot. Obviously not to Cam Wake levels, but I'm sure we can do better than 4 sacks from that DE spot. Maybe 8 sacks and also double the pressures, hurries and QB hits.

 

I don;t think Mingo will play to his draft status if he goes in the first round.

This is a developmental player, plain and simple. There's a good chance he doesn;t develop. I just didn't like what I saw. Have a feeling he's one of those pups that won't bite as a grownup.

 

He has impressive physical abilities. No denying that. and the combine should help his stock. I hope we avoid him though.

 

I never meant to infer that I want him above all at 12, just that I can see the rationale of his name being in the mix of possible choices there.
If we want a pass rusher, why not try for John Simon in the 2nd? He's be a player that would be interesting to me.

 

One thing to consider, IMO, is that as the season wore on Olivier Vernon was used more and more as a stand-up backer on the edge in certain situations, mainly in sub packages, but a few times Kevin Coyle incorporated him into base packages. I believe that may have been more prevalent when Koa Misi was hurt. But it even played into some 3-4 looks (though sometimes Wake still kept his hand in the dirt a la what he did in Mike Nolan's D). I wonder if incorporating more of a hybrid element is something that may be on Coyle's agenda for 2013 - sort of like what Seattle does with Chris Clemons and K.J. Wright, which may now be Bruce Irvin and K.J. Wright.

If that is the case, I'm not sure Miami has that player opposite Wake that allows them to do that. Koa Misi isn't it, and Olivier Vernon's got some more developing to do if he's the guy. Was Joe Philbin really hinting at something when he mentioned Josh Kaddu in his last presser? Eh, I still think Kaddu's more in line for replacing Kevin Burnett down the road, but that's just me. Again, this hybrid thought is nothing more than a hunch on my part, but it'd make a lot of sense if Miami were to draft Dion Jordan, Jarvis Jones, Alex Okafor, maybe even Tank Carradine, that incorporating more hybrid looks is something we'd see.

If that is indeed the case, Jared Odrick playing where he is, which is a DE spot in the base packages, would end up being more of a 3-4 DE spot (not that it's not really that already). The main obstacle to incorporating these looks at this point in time is what do you do with Koa Misi and/or Olivier Vernon? Or, does Kevin Coyle want to sort of carbon copy what Cincinnati does, and try and find a bigger guy like Michael Johnson? Is that Ezekiel Ansah? Is that William Gholston? Tank Carradine might fit this bill. Is it someone else?

I'm interested to see what happens. However, just based on what Miami's done in the past, if I were a betting man, I'd put money on Jeff Ireland addressing the CB position before he addresses adding another pass-rusher, whether it's a pure DE or one of the hybrid players.

 

1). You don't know that. And even it were 100% truth, Philbin has to have influence.
2). Odrick can be a backup and rotational player. Starting DE in 2012 doesn't make him starting DE/Dline in 2013.


Quite frankly, the 12th pick sucks right now for us. If we can trade back and acquire more picks (another second rounder perhaps, like in '10) we'd be much better off. Grab Patterson, Bailey, and a TE (Maybe that TD monster CK likes, Fauria) then worry about the defense... We've got no time to waste when it comes to drafting skill positions on offense. We ignored it last year and now we have to pay the price by getting these guys all at once if possible. We really shouldn't be worrying too much about the defense. They did good enough. It's our offense that's disgusting.

 

That was always Parcells' philosophy. That was also his reputation. Parcells was considered a mercenary who would come in for a short time and leave, hopefully orchestrating a turn-around in that short -time. He always favored vets b/c short-timers don't have time to develop players. He always favored four year starters and team captains over raw players that would need time to develop. You saw that when Henne was drafted. And you saw that Pennington was brought in. CP wasn't brought in to give Henne time to develop. He was brought in b/c he was a vet and he was better. Henne didn't sit on the bench and learn, he was forgotten. When CP got hurt and Henne had to play, he wasn't brought along slowly. He was thrown in to see if he 'bit'. When he screwed up, the coaching comments were about how "he has to play better". Contrast that with the drafting of RT. He was raw. That was not a myth. He was more technically sound than many gave him credit for so he wasn't raw in that respect, but he lacked experience. He had limited starts and that is not debatable. Even though he knew the offense he was still given a limited playbook and limited responsibility. It wasn't until late in the season that Bush was used as a receiver. When Sherman was asked why, he said, "he didn't want to throw too much at RT'. Even among the other picks in the top three rounds, Vernon and Egnew were all more developmental types. This first draft for Philbin was far more geared towards bringing in developmental types than the ones under Parcells/Sparano. And that shouldn't be a surprise. The main differences that were cited by Ross and Ireland during the coaching search was that they wanted more transparency and more player development. Once Philbin was chosen, they highlighted his reputation for developing players. Philbin himself often mentions how he is a teacher. This is such an obvious and sharp contrast from what we had with Parcells that I'm surprised there's even been an argument about it. This isn't just about being effective at developing players. It's about actually focusing on it. The focus just wasn't there under Parcells/Sparano and it clearly is under Philbin. That doesn't mean that every player will be a development project, but it should be safe to say that they won't steer clear of the raw prospects that need to be developed.

 

That's interesting. Thank you for finding that. When I read that it gives me hope that the team will pay attention to where the talent in the draft lies. Meaning that pass rushers and CB may be the focus in the first and WR in the second/third. Pass rushers and CBs seem to have a drop off after the first round, while few WRs are even considered sure first round guys and a glut if WR talent is expected to be available in the second and third. They also won't shy away from guys who may only play in the nickel that first year in those early picks. And with a horizontally stacked board you have to guess that WR, pass rushers and CB are going to be the obvious needs that he'll want to fill. TE could also be a factor in the second/third, but those valuations seem to vary quite a bit. For example, I've seen Ertz projected anywhere from 1st - 3rd and Eiffert projected 1st - 2nd.

 

While I like Okafor and definitely have him among the possibilities in the first, I would also list a guy like Mingo as a possibility. Although I'm not a big fan of his, he was very productive the previous year and has more explosiveness than Okafor. Okafor has more strength and is more consistent though. IMO you're likely to see a pass rusher or a secondary player taken in the first. Above, I said CB, but I think that S should be on the list as well. I think it's a little high to take the top safeties, but I'm not sure which ones will make it to our second round picks. It's going to come down to the evaluations as always.

 

One really good player: Purdue's Kawann Short.

 

I don't love Mingo either. My big beef is that he gets pushed around too easily. But his burst and length is potentially elite at the next level. I'd take Jordan over him for sure, but not Patterson.

 

I definitely wouldn't go with Patterson b/c of all the WR talent available later. Warmack I'd only consider if I just had him so far above the pass rushers that were available at #12. I have him as a better talent, but I'm not sure if it's enough to take such a low impact position there.

 

Patterson is the first one I eliminate b/c frankly I like Hopkins and Bailey better. Warmack is a closer call for me. As for how Mingo would be used, I see him as a potentially elite pass rusher that would be a situational guy in that first year and would have to improve his strength and technique to become an all-around 4-3 DE. I think he has the athleticism to do that so I can't discount him as a possibility. You can't teach that burst and length. Between him and Warmack it would probably come down to my assessment of Mingo's personality. Ie. do I believe he'd be coachable and put in the work?

 

He played a lot but honestly he wasn't all that good.

 

A lot. Generally the discomfort with Irvin had to do with his background, arrests, attitude, and lack of stamina during games. The NFL came to care little about that stuff because he was the only guy in that Draft they could trust to get after the quarterback consistently.

 

If that's what you take from that, I give up.

 

I consider him to be a solid workmanlike player. Not a Pro Bowler, but definitely not a "goddamned waste of a pick." You can win with him as a starter on your defense. When one looks at the top 25-26 Dolphins players, IMO his name does not jump out at you as player that is a priority to be upgraded before the team can take the next step.

 

I rarely go in for hyperbole anyway so I don't know about "goddamned waste of a pick". However, if the Dolphins let him walk away after his rookie deal is done, yes I will consider it an unsuccessful 1st round draft pick.

There are a lot of guys that you can pick up just about anywhere in the Draft that will give you "solid workmanlike" at that position, guys that "you can win with" as starters. Jared Odrick was picked in the 1st round to be more than that. Let's hope he is. All I know is he's not very likely to be more than that at defensive end and the sooner the Dolphins get him used to playing defensive tackle exclusively, the better off they'll be IMO. That's his shot. But if Kevin Coyle doesn't really think he's good enough there, that may say that he doesn't really have a shot.

 

Yes, I don't see that sort of thing from you. It was the comment from another about him to which I originally replied in this thread. Granted we'd all love our 1st rounders to be Pro Bowl players, but it does not always happen. Many if not most 1st rounders are simply just regular solid or decent starters, and that is what IMO he is. Sure, we'd like more pass rush out of him when he's at DE. I definitely don't see him as a dynamic player but he's also not a player where one would say "if we could just upgrade Odrick this would be a Super Bowl defense."

 

I agree with what you say about #1 WRs. I used that term in this case to mean a playmaking WR that the Dolphins can count on to come in and give them good production. I also agree you shouldn't expect too much from a rookie WR, which is kind of the point I was trying to make. I feel the Dolphins need to solve the WR issue with one of the big 3 WR FAs, or through trade. I think they should supplement that with a pick in rounds 2 or 3. I don't think you are going to draft a WR in round 1 if you have gone the veteran route. In that sense you are going to need solid production from that rookie if you want to give Tannehill more help next year than he had this year. That's a tough situation with a high risk/high reward type like Patterson. On the other side, you aren't going to be asking for as much from a guy like Mingo. You would just be hoping he can come in and apply some pressure on passing downs.

 

Hmm. An interesting question. Honestly I do think the defense would be a lot better if they had a more dynamic player to play that spot. Don't know about Super Bowl, there are secondary issues to be worked out, but they'd be a lot better.

 

I don't think this defense kept the team out of the playoffs. If next season's defense was roughly the same as the 2012 edition, but the offense significantly upgraded, I think this team could win in the playoffs. Of course another good corner in the draft and a pass rusher would be nice too. That pass rusher wouldn't need to replace Odrick in the base defense though. Just in the nickel. Odrick is our Red Bryant in the base defense, who had no sacks last season btw, we just need our Bruce Irvin.

 

This is not the nfl of your fathers it's offense you need. I find the debate for defense with our first pick insane but there are a plethora of proven evaluators/minds on this forum so...

Ravens are a game away but what play won the game to get them there? I love kippers pick. The only thing solid about mingo is his nam- gotta love it. Project is an understatement. If he played any higher he'd have to be on drugs during game time.

This is not ur fathers game anymore. You must out score your opponent. Sign the vet in fa and for the love of god go wr with you first pick even on a reach.