One of the most frustrating things for me, as a fan, is when I hear and see people assign grades and scores to a draft class before the players ever see the field. I believe the only effective way to grade a class is to review it a few years down the road. Nick Saban's drafts were initially lauded by press and fans alike, but now that we've had a few years with his drafts, I feel it's appropriate to take a look back at his two drafts to see his successes and failures. Methodology I started by arbitrarily assigning a maximum value - 100 - to both the 2005 and 2006 draft classes. From there I wrote a mathematical formula to help me determine an escalating cumulative score, as it relates to the draft. Higher round picks are more heavily weighted. In other words, a seventh round pick may grade out at an 80%, but this would actually be lower than a third rounder graded at an identical 80%. This is not due to the quality of the player, but more to help identify the success of Saban in choosing that particular player. To determine overall value of the draft class I then added up the cumulative scores and compared the maximum value that could be attained. This also allowed me to look at each of the two drafts in comparison - The sliding scale changes with the amount of picks made, so Jason Allen carries more weight than Ronnie Brown. Again, this is not due to talent level, but weighting the success of the front office. I'd like to start with a look at each of the drafts, and then offer my analysis on specific players. Saban's Drafts 2005 Code: Round Player Points Possible Score % Grade 1st Ronnie Brown 25.93 23.33 90% 2nd Matt Roth 22.22 16.67 75% 3rd Channing Crowder 18.52 15.19 82% 4th Travis Daniels 14.81 10.37 70% 5th Anthony Alabi 11.11 2.78 25% 6th Kevin Vickerson 7.41 0.74 10% Overall 100 69.07 59% 2006 Code: Round Player Points Possible Score % Grade 1st Jason Allen 36.84 30.21 82% 3rd Derek Hagan 26.31 19.74 75% 4th Joe Toledo 21.05 2.10 10% 7th Fred Evans 5.26 0.00 0% 7th Rodrique Wright 5.26 4.74 90% 7th Devin Aromashodu 5.26 0.26 5% Overall 100 57.05 44% Observations The 2005 draft, at least to me, has been significantly stronger than the 2006 draft. Ronnie Brown, Matt Roth, Channing Crowder, and Travis Daniels all have started for us at one point or another. Alabi and Vickerson are misses. In addition, from a points distribution perspective, the 2005 draft is much more well rounded as compared the scattershot 2006 draft. 2006 was unique in that we had very few picks outside of round 7. Jason Allen, Derek Hagen, and Rod Wright have all started for us, while Joe Toledo, Fred Evans, and Devin Aromashodu are misses. Over a third of the points possible in this draft - 36.84 to be exact - are allocated to the Jason Allen pick. Due to the lack of first day picks, both Allen and Hagan are more important in my evaluation than Ronnie Brown. Ronnie is our only first day pick that I graded at 90%. If it were not for the injuries, I would have given him a 95%. Rod Wright deserves credit for being the only player taken on the second day that has done anything to contribute to the team. Only 4 of our players grade out at an 80% or better - Ronnie Brown, Channing Crowder, Jason Allen, and Rod Wright. Crowder and Allen have both been the source of contention for fans since they were drafted. The players in the 70% or better range - Matt Roth, Travis Daniels, and Derek Hagan, have been starters, but have not shown - at least to me - anything to warrant a higher grade. They have all contributed, but I've expected more from them - particularly Roth, who, if you recall, was the product of the Surtain trade. Conclusions As time wears on, I'm more and more convinced that Saban's drafts have been overrated. We've got one franchise player, providing he can stay healthy, in Ronnie Brown. We also have a solid DT in Rod Wright. The rest of the players from these drafts are either flameouts, or marginal players/starters. I'm hoping the development we saw in Jason Allen continues this year. The other thing that stands out is that, outside Brown, we have not had a breakout player (ie Pro-Bowl caliber) in either draft. I'm hoping that changes with last year's and this year's drafts, but neither of these drafts are impressive. Overall, Saban's draft record was much like his tenure - overrated to begin with, and, as time wears on, seen for what it is - mediocre at best. p.s. I've saved my math formulas, so if you disagree with the percentages I've awarded for each player, I'd be happy to go back and rework the math to revise the scores for each of the two classes.
I'm afraid that despite early flashes and glimpses of promise, as it stands right now you're right. We'll have to see how this season pans out to give something approaching a final grade, but it's not looking good for the most part.
Nice work, and very well written. The only thing I even mildly disagree with, is the 75% rating on Jason Allen. Yea, he has started, but been ineffective frequently (He has progressed a lot over the last year, though, and I think he will be even better this year). I don't know what values you used for the formula, but based on quality of output I would say 75 seems a bit high, but if you are basing it on starts and playing time it's probably right on the money. Of course, trying to assign a number to anything other than playing time or number of starts would be a real bear. Maybe throw in a few % of subjective points you could give based on your perceptions of how well they played. Some players only get time on the field due to injuries, and only play as long as the real starter is injured, but don't contribute a whole lot. Not knocking your work, I think you did a great job, just tossing in a possible refinement of the system you created.
