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Dow movement discussion

Discussion in 'Economics and Financials' started by texasPHINSfan, Oct 3, 2008.

  1. texasPHINSfan

    texasPHINSfan New Member

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    wow, some things never cease to amaze me.

    last week, the dow dropped 770 points on news that the $700B bill had been shot down in Congress.

    today, the market was up almost 300 points at one point today, but fell over 200 points on news that the Congress passed the $700B bill.

    jesus, make up your mind! obviously a lot of the movement is fueled on rumors and speculation (its the sizzle, not the steak that moves much of the time), however this really does defy logic.

    the bill that the public and market so obviously wanted passed (as evidenced by market moves) gets passed finally, and the response is almost as defensive as the news that the bill was shot down.

    ugh. hurry up weekend.
     
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  2. azfinfanmang

    azfinfanmang Premium Member Luxury Box

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    I think we are going to see MANY peaks and valleys before it settles.

    Going to be interesting to see WHERE it is going into the weekend.

    Dark Gray Monday anybody?
     
  3. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    the major move will come monday, up or down. I think today is more about unwinding long positions heading into the weekend. I expect the fed and the major players to be in phone conversations and major coordinated buying taking place monday. they have to prop up the market now or the government and markets lose all credibility. so long as the foreign banks dont sell into this i think you'll see a major rally
     
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  4. texasPHINSfan

    texasPHINSfan New Member

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    oh wow, i hope not. ;)

    i think adam is on to something... might see a mild rally on Monday when people have had time to digest the news and re-assess where they're at in their portfolios, where the market is headed, etc...

    people shouldn't lose sight of the fact that the actual physical effects of this bill won't be felt for months... :up:
     
  5. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    I think we will see a couple of Hedge Funds die soon.
     
  6. azfinfanmang

    azfinfanmang Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Optimism is good to hear right now Adam.
     
  7. azfinfanmang

    azfinfanmang Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Please explain to this layman
     
  8. texasPHINSfan

    texasPHINSfan New Member

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    well hedge funds have been dying a lot lately, it seems, although its less newsworthy than when one would die ten years ago when it was unheard of.

    a lot of hedge funds had $$ tied up in firms like Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, Goldman, Merrill, etc.... that was money that in some cases (Bear, Lehman) cannot be recovered. it is dead & gone money.

    many hedge funds had some sort of position in these investment banks. even with the $700B bailout bill, it rescues some of the bad and distressed debt, but does not refund investment money to investors.

    i think you'll see a lot of banks go under in the coming months as well, albeit none as large as WM.
     
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  9. joeydolfan

    joeydolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I agree :knucks:
     
  10. texasPHINSfan

    texasPHINSfan New Member

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  11. texasPHINSfan

    texasPHINSfan New Member

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    and now the Dow is down 150 points for the day, just before close.

    we tend to end down on Fridays, but i'd be lying if i said i didn't expect a positive move today with that bill being passed.
     
  12. finswin56

    finswin56 Get a mop

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    This would be hilarious if it weren't so scary. Up a few hundred before the bill, and down 150 at the end of the day.

    Did someone cut off the cable on Wall St.?

    :chuckle: Next week will be very interesting.
     
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  13. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    I wouldnt be too concerned over today's move. The big story will be Monday. People have to digest the international lay of the land. Noone wanted to be long going into the weekend. We may tank bigtime if people feel things are going to get worse. Then again there should be a concerted effort to prop up the market on Monday. We'll see which one wins Monday, fear or manipulation
     
  14. FiN.in.RI

    FiN.in.RI Paul pierced through..

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    sell on the News baby
     
  15. FiN.in.RI

    FiN.in.RI Paul pierced through..

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    Gut feeling tells me next week will be a strong week.


    Financials sold off heavy following the vote(just an observation).. When is that short-selling ban expiring?
     
  16. texasPHINSfan

    texasPHINSfan New Member

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    in other interesting/weird news, AAPL drops 3% on rumors that Steve Jobs was ill.

    that's right, that he was ill.

    talk about just REE-diculous investors.
     
  17. FiN.in.RI

    FiN.in.RI Paul pierced through..

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    AAPL and the rest of TECH (ex. CSCO, RIMM) has been just terrible lately.
     
  18. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    not sure about the ban? good question though. Well I know I'll be spending my weekend reading about the economic situation in China and Europe, yipee. Thats what I think is going to determine which way we go. If those regions are on the verge of collapse then 700 billion is a pittance compared to whats coming down the road. bastages! keeping me from concentrating on college football!
     
  19. FiN.in.RI

    FiN.in.RI Paul pierced through..

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    Jobs and his (deteriorating) health has been an ongoing saga.. Apple is Steve Jobs, and without him, the future may not be so bright.
     
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  20. FiN.in.RI

    FiN.in.RI Paul pierced through..

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    ...


     
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  21. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    Well....just doing some reading...

    But Im not so optomistic that we will see anything good happen on Moday....

    One of the biggest things will have to play out before we see a swing up or down....and that is what price the Govt is going to pay for these toxic Mortgages....theres varying oppinions on what we should pay....one the Street sees this....then youll see some movement...

    One of the more important charts to look at though...isnt the DOW...its the TED Spread...this is the barometer of risk in the credit market....from what I have read...in a normal market...the TED is usually around 30....

    The higher it gets...the more degree of risk in the credit market....today it opened at 3.61...and closed at 3.87....it actually got worse.

    Keep an eye on this chart...

    Bloomberg.com: Investment Tools
     
  22. finswin56

    finswin56 Get a mop

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    Below 10,000
    below 9,900

    Now Jim Cramer says
    That must mean we're seeing the bottom :shifty:

    Jim Cramer: Time to get out of stocks - Today Technology & Money - MSNBC.com
     
  23. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    If I had any money to pull out of the NYSE, I lost it all when I bought Wachovia on his recommendation...or was that Bear Sterns..or AIG...or..

    Geez, I would have lost alot of money if I listened to Cramer...:lol::no:
     
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  24. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    This afternoon should be interesting. Let's see if they can prop up the DOW. If not we may be headed for 8000 which is the next base of support on the DOW
     
  25. FiN.in.RI

    FiN.in.RI Paul pierced through..

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    the Vix is pushing 55.. whew
     
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  26. finswin56

    finswin56 Get a mop

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    :lol: I'm not sure I knew it could get that high
     
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  27. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    seems the weakness in european banking is causing a complete meltdown. i would bet that we're trying to prop up the markets but the selling is just too overwhelming. a short term play of going long the yen vs the euro looks like the best play for the next few days
     
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  28. FiN.in.RI

    FiN.in.RI Paul pierced through..

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    Do you actively trade currencies? Something I've been meaning to read up on..

    The Nasdaq is getting shelled today. Tech was resilient there for a while but it has succumbed with the rest of the market in the past 3-4 weeks.
     
  29. finswin56

    finswin56 Get a mop

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    Good grief, could the EUR/JPY go much lower? IDK its just vaporized. I wouldn't be too excited to chase it with turn around Tuesday coming.
     
  30. finswin56

    finswin56 Get a mop

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    This market is out of its freaking mind.
    We were just down 800+ points an hour ago. Now we're making a push back to 10,000.

    I don't get it. Did Paulson just announce another wasted 1$T :rolleyes:
     
  31. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    No but me and a partner of mine are going to go long the yen somewhere between two months and nine months from now against the dollar and euro. In the past Ive just played foreign stocks looking to get a bump on the stocks plus the currency play. This will be the first time I'm going to be playing pure currency. The play is a once in a lifetime (lol bit exaggerated there). The Japanese fundamentals are so strong right now compared to europe annd America. America and probably Europe will soon artificially boost their currencies by the infusion of hundreds of billions in bailout money. In the short term, while that money works its way through the system it will prop up those two currencies. But once that money has finished working its way through the system look for a straight decline as international money heads to the safety of the yen

    The afternoon bounce I was expecting came a bit later than I thought it would. Thought it would be 2 pm instead they waited for 3 pm lol. shake the rest of the people out lol. Only two reasons I can think of for that

    1) the Fed stepped in and infused the market with liquidity buying up everything

    2) people must have heard that Europe will soon get its act together and announce the european equivalent of their bailout for their ailing banks

    either one or both happend monday. i'll try to find out tmw exactly what was the force behind the move
     
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  32. texasPHINSfan

    texasPHINSfan New Member

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    finally getting some positive movements now...
     
  33. finswin56

    finswin56 Get a mop

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    Damn, so close. I'm blaming Paulson for speaking out loud of the reality that some companies won't be able to be saved even with the bailout :lol:
     
  34. texasPHINSfan

    texasPHINSfan New Member

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    i agree. everytime paulson opens his mouth, the dow drops. he needs to just shut it, seriously.

    and i spoke to soon, the dow closed down 191 points, even after it was announced that home sales were UP 7.4% in August.... largest jump in over a year. Usually that news would send the Dow UP 300+ points... ugh.
     
  35. finswin56

    finswin56 Get a mop

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    This market cracks me up. I laugh all day (because that's all I can do at this point). They take PMS and spread it over a 20 days a month. Then they take that emotion and add a child's rationale.

    Market: Hurray!!! A 50 bip rate cut! :party:

    Martet an hour later: It should have been a whole point! :tantrum:
     
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  36. FiN.in.RI

    FiN.in.RI Paul pierced through..

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    Volume was huge today.. VIX around 58.. capitulation? The DOW recovered after 2:00 only to be beaten down like a ragdoll near the close.
     
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  37. FiN.in.RI

    FiN.in.RI Paul pierced through..

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    Him and Bernanke both.
    Bernanke just sounds so defeated when he speaks. That has such a huge impact on the psychology of the market (which is essentially more impactful at this stage than a firms fundamentals), does he not realize this? He needs to be more positive or at least act more in control even if it's a broadfaced and outright lie.
     
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  38. finswin56

    finswin56 Get a mop

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    Nuts. Madness.
    Opening nearly -700 points and back to even within a half hour. Don't know if anyone else was watching one of the business channels, but it was pretty cool seeing the relief, cheering, and whistling. We're back down around 100, but we may finally have seen capitulation.
     
  39. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    DOW is up an incredible 600pts, that is amazing, and in some ways disconcerting, too much volatility in the market at the moment.
     
  40. finswin56

    finswin56 Get a mop

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    It's nice to see an apparent bottom in place, but there's going to be some ugly days ahead. This 600 should help shield us what will likely be ugly retail sales numbers and a dismal outlook seen through the Beige Book this week.
     

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