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Dolphins vs. Vikings - Week 15

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Galant, Dec 10, 2018.

  1. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    I'd say that was bad news. Teams often play better after a sudden change.
     
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  2. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Yet we can't can our DC no matter how bad he is.
     
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  3. Brasfin

    Brasfin Well-Known Member

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    Not to mention that the interim OC will probably call new plays that won't be found in previous game tape. Bad news for us.
     
  4. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I don't disagree with your premise, as it certainly makes sense. Problem is, the stats tell a different story. And that story is that the threat of the run is what makes PA successful, not the actual yards being gained in the runs. It's actually very surprising. It was a couple years ago that this was brought up on here, and I thought exactly like you.
     
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  5. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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  6. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    There are a lot of factors to analyze before coming to that conclusion. Not sure how detailed the study was or wasn't. Just to name a few:

    Down and Distance: All successful PA would have to be categorized into down and distance because this impacts the actual "threat" involved of the run.

    Defensive Allignment: Are they playing 8 in the box because you can't throw well? If so...yeah the PA will probably work on some level.

    Point In The Game: If you're on your second drive and havent run well Id almost guarantee the PA works better than if youve been unsuccessful for 3 Quarters of the game but both may be put in the same category in this type of study by mistake or oversight.


    On top of all this you also have to wonder, even if the analysis was correct, is it worth it? Is running into a wall worth it, giving up potentially good offensive plays so that yoyr PA game will be a little better?
     
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  7. Mike8272

    Mike8272 Active Member

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    Robert Quinn and Cameron Wake are not performing to the level that our team hoped for going into this season, however I wouldn't be quick to discard them. Of course I agree that we need to get an influx of new talent in at the defensive end position to improve our pass rush, but considering where we will be drafting in 2019 it is unlikely that we will be landing one of the premier guys. We've already spent a mid-first round pick on Charles Harris and he's not worked out. So although the coming class does have good depth at the D-Line position, I'm not convinced we should turn the keys over to Charles Harris and another inexperienced player. That's not to say Harris and another young DE prospect shouldn't see a decent amount of snaps and ultimately takeover the bulk of them when they earn them, but I'd retain Quinn and Wake until we are convinced that we have the future of the position on the roster and those players have earned the right to start at DE.

    As for the offensive line, we should be looking at ways to improve. I'm more concerned about our interior line than the tackles, but guards and centers can be found on day two and three of the draft. If we look at last year's all rookie team, Ethan Pocic was a second round pick, Dan Feeney and Pat Elflein were third round picks, and Jermaine Eluemunor was a fifth round pick. The years before that again they have mostly been second and third round picks outside of a few first round picks. So interior line players can be found on day two and three of the draft, and some even go undrafted. That's before looking to free agency to find any potential diamonds in the rough.

    I hate to use the Patriots as an example, but their O-Line is made up of: a seventh round left tackle (Trent Brown) who they acquired from the 49ers, a fifth found right tackle (Marcus Cannon), a third round (Joe Thuney) and fourth round (Shaq Mason) guard pairing, and an undrafted centre. Other teams have found key personnel from outside the first round like the Steelers starting left tackle and left guard are both undrafted players. So the O-Line can be upgraded without needing to invest significant draft capital if our front office do their job well and identify players outside the first round, but if there's a stud O-Line prospect there when we are on the clock then we shouldn't hesitate to take them.

    I do agree that this roster needs to continue going through the transition it has done this season. I don't have a problem with the team adding experienced heads like Frank Gore, Josh Sitton, or Robert Quinn. They can make an impact on this team even if they aren't going to be here long term. Every roster has players that aren't going to be there in five seasons time. That's part of the transition. You acquire players that can help you now, while making sure that the key parts of your roster are well built through the draft and players that do have a long term future with the team. As it stands we do have a good young core of players and some valuable veterans that make sure we are one of those middling teams rather than one of those fighting for a top pick. Then again that can be a negative in that we aren't really a legitimate contender, so perhaps gutting the roster and starting from the bottom is the way to go, but even that doesn't come with a guarantee if the team doesn't hit their picks out of the park. I'd rather see us continue to try to be competitive while transitioning this roster into a younger more vibrant one, but even those teams have places for key veterans like Frank Gore who can play a pivotal role.

    Personally I don't see Adam Gase as the problem as a head coach. If we fire him, who are we going to get?

    I've heard John Harbaugh mentioned amongst our fan base as a possibility if he ends up leaving Baltimore after this season. Now he is a good coach and has a proven track record with a Super Bowl win, however what has he done since that Super Bowl win? Not a great deal. One play off appearance in five seasons. Obviously there are plus points like their defense ranking favourably most seasons, but they haven't really had much success since winning the Super Bowl. There's a guy living off that Super Bowl win. Take that Super Bowl win away and he probably would have gone before now.

    Maybe we could persuade Mike McCarthy to bring his talents here. Sure things fizzled out in Green Bay, but he has an impressive track record. Now whether he would want to come here and work with Tannehill is highly doubtful, and we aren't in a position to draft his successor. So our appeal is not that great. Same would be the case for Josh McDaniels if he could be trusted to actually take a job outside New England. We don't have the quarterback to lure him. Plus there's significant doubts about that guy outside of BB's shadow.

    There's the retreads like Jim Schwartz, Jack Del Rio, and Chuck Pagano. None of them strike me as coaches we should be desperate to hire and bring back to the NFL. Nor do I see many stand out coordinators as in previous years.

    So that leaves us the possibility of looking to a college head coach, maybe we can persuade the other Harbaugh back to the pros, or perhaps we can look at one of the current hot college head coaches. Problem is these guys don't always transition as well to the pros as hoped. Unless I'm mistaken Bill O'Brien is the only current NFL head coach currently in the job that was hired from college football, the rest were all either coordinators or former NFL head coaches. That doesn't mean college head coaches can't make in the pros, but sometimes they don't always make the transition like Chip Kelly.

    Don't get me wrong. Adam Gase hasn't been perfect, but without a clear standout hire, I don't see firing Gase as the right move. I'd rather see us give Gase time to allow him to build his roster and vision here in Miami rather than go hire a retread or hire a fairly lacklustre coordinator to a job and hope that they do something special for us. Give the guy a chance and perhaps make changes at the coordinator positions in the offseason, see if that helps things. If not, make a change after next season when we should have a clearer picture of Adam Gase.
     
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  8. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Maybe cbrad, I think he was the one doing the analysis, can chime in on some of these things...
     
  9. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    My hope for Quinn is to give him a one year extension where 2019 salary is low, and most his $10 million in bonus.
     
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  10. Phins_to_Win

    Phins_to_Win Well-Known Member

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    This game is going to tell us a lot. If we win here, it will go a long way is killing the Jekyll and Hyde personality that has plagued us for so long. After a monster game against the Pats, this would be inevitably the game we come out flat and can't seem to put together any good series. I hope we win convincingly so that sinking feeling doesn't show up.
     
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  11. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    When I look at the Vikings on paper they should be one of the best yetand in the league.
    Is their line terrible?
    I seem just shocked with how disappointing they are.
     
  12. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The Keenum theory
     
  13. Kud_II

    Kud_II Realist Division

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    Miami is
    6-1-0 at home and 1-5-0 on the road.

    Doesnt bode well for Vikes game.
     
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  14. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    It's the line. Their line is as bad as ours. Shows you how good Gase is. He's completely outcoached minnesota. The only reason minny is in the hunt is their defense
     
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  15. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    Other than Thielen, who has come back down to earth a little bit lately, I don't see any huge threats on their offense.

    I think this will be a low scoring battle.
     
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  16. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Sorry, didn't see this till now.

    Yeah, I don't remember to what depths I went in the analysis but I think the first thing I looked at was the correlation since 1970 between rushing yards per attempt (RYA) and passing yards per attempt (PYA), and the correlation between rushing attempts (RA) and PYA. And yes the average correlation between RA and PYA is higher at 0.2184 compared to the correlation between RYA and PYA which is 0.1542.

    Neither is that high, which makes sense because there are obviously bigger contributors to passing efficiency, but that's the simplest source of evidence that total rushing attempts is more influential on passing efficiency than rushing yards per attempt, though it's not like RYA has no influence, just less than RA.


    EDIT: Just remembered a bit more.. to show that the higher correlation isn't due to the reverse mechanism of greater rushing attempts in the 4th quarter when you have the lead (i.e., higher PYA should help you win the game and/or get a lead in the 4th), I showed that PYA in the 4th is actually on average less than for quarters 1-3. The reason this is important is because correlations don't show directionality. However, if PYA in the 4th is smaller anyway then the correlation between RA and PYA will only be hurt by the "rush more when you have a lead" mechanism, so the influence of RA on PYA (as a causal mechanism) is arguably a tad bit higher than that correlation suggests.
     
    Last edited: Dec 11, 2018
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  17. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    The minute you doubt Stefon Diggs? He will score on you.
     
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  18. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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  19. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    They have had a ton of injuries as we have. Reading about their firing of their old OC, it seems he just about abandoned the running game early in the season in favor of being one dimensional, which irked pretty much everyone on offense. I can see them trying to revert to a ground-based attack for our game. This also plays into our weakness. It will be a big game for the D to step up and keep points from being put up.
     
  20. bigballa2102

    bigballa2102 Well-Known Member

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    hmm that would be interesting to see i have not seen that.
     
  21. bigballa2102

    bigballa2102 Well-Known Member

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    Stefon Diggs hands stick to everything, haven't you seen the commercial :)
     
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  22. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Line has either gone up to 8 or “off” board at most live books.

    Very strange, hoping Ryan isn’t worse than we thought.
     
  23. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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  24. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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  25. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    Apr 22, 2014



     
  26. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Staff Member Club Member

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    I hate Dan Fouts as a commentator. He's so homer for one team over another. At least he wont't have New England to drool all over.
     
  27. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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  28. Drizzy

    Drizzy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Take Harbaugh’s super bowl win away and he’s still 9-5 in the playoffs. And last year they were literally one 4th and long stop from making the playoffs. I would throw Gase overboard in two seconds for Harbaugh...either one.
     
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  29. JPPT1974

    JPPT1974 2022 Mother's Day and May Flowers!

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    It is very crucial for both teams.To make the playoffs. One over the other on either side. But who wants it best, will walk away the winner.
     
  30. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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  31. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    OP updated with previews.
     
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  32. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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  33. Kud_II

    Kud_II Realist Division

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  34. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Everything I worried about concerning this game came to pass.
     

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