http://www.footballlocks.com/nfl_lines.shtml * Miami -4.5 points -vs- Cleveland: Total Points: 43 I am shocked that this spread isn't higher. Cleveland's Offensive and Defensive ranking a joke and our offense really clicked last week. We should be at least a 7 point favorite. If we can control our interceptions and stay constant with our passing game we should beat this team by 10 points easily. I'd take Miami -4.5 points all day long and laugh all the way to the bank. This spread is a joke.
two words: Payton Hillis. he's enough to bias gamblers to think Browns have a shot to beat anybody they play. if it were a 7 pt spread, I'd bet against the dolphins in a heart beat. we are 1-4 at home, regardless how we played on road last week.
Don't base our offense on one game. We kick Field Goals as a team. They have a stud RB. They could eat the clock and make it very tough for us.
I'm actually surprised we're favored. Our defense is not very good against the run this year and as mentioned earlier, they have Hillis. Even though the Browns have a lot to work on in the passing game, if we can't stop Hillis, this game will be close. I do think we win, but if we win by 7 points I'll be extremely surprised.
Yeah but our defense manhandled the #2 ranked Raiders rushing game. Colt McCoy is also out, meaning Jake "INT MACHINE" Delhomme will start IINM. I think 4.5 is a good spread. We should win by more though.
Actually, our run D is ranked pretty high (12th at 103.9 YPG/avg, and 7th at 3.8 YPC/avg). And, other than AP and the Jests game, I can't think of anyone that really gashed us on the ground. Hell, we held Pitt to 48 yards, and Oakland to 16! And, those are two similar teams in that they like to run the ball. Not saying Hillis won't get his, but I don't think he'll be a difference maker in this game. My guess is Nolan will focus on stopping Hillis and force Cleveland to try to beat us through the air. I see some picks coming Sunday.
I think the Miami run defense is good too and I wouldn't say the Jets gashed them. Outside of a few decent runs, the Jets were held in check. Hillis won't blow through a hole and run away from everybody. What he will do is carry 3 guys 10 yards. You can't just throw a shoulder at his legs either - he's just run you over.
We'll stop Hillis early, then subsequently introduce Delhomme to Wake numerous times. Once their ground game is nullified, they'll make some costly mistakes/turnovers and this will turn into another Raiders game with us winning by multiple scores. I don't think this team is looking past Cleveland to get to NY; I think we're looking at trying to flat out dominate them and send a message to the league on how "for real" we are.
Told ya BB, Hillis is a beast, but there are chinks in his armour, if I notice it, betcha Nolan will notice and exploit them as well.
Spreads don't mean anything unless you gamble. Gimme the W,that's all that matters. I see us winning 24-13.
We're a big, physical front 7 as far as I know. I don't see Hillis gashing us. We could shut him down. I'll be curious to watch Alex Mack on Soliai. That should be a key matchup of the game.... or even Mack against anyone he's going against for that matter. IMO Mack's one of the keys to their ground game.
1-4 @ home, that is reason enough to not make Miami a great favorite. For whatever reason, I believe we will struggle in all our home games this year, except for Detroit. And even then the Christmas hangover may get us in that one.
Our "D" has given up 120 or more yards in 6 games and over 135 in 5 of those. That Raider game really skewed the numbers in our favor. I'm not saying we're the worst in the league at stopping the run, but we're not that good either. The thing with Hillis is that most don't realize how good of a receiver he is. He's had 46 receptions for 414 yds on the season. All in all he averages 4.6 Y/C and 9 Y/R.
Here is what the beast has done game by game- 41, 35, 144, 102, 28, 41, 69, 184, 82, 48, and 131. The 144 was vs Balt, with 1 run for 48, still a good showing vs a good D. The others were vs Cinci, Pats, and Carolina. Sorry but I see more Bully vs very bad D's than a Beast vs good ones. I will bet right now that he does not get 80 yards. Any takers?
That's all true MPF. However, we won two of those games. And, interestingly enough we won all five games in which we ran for 120 yards or more. So, maybe it's more important that we run for 120+, as opposed to giving it up. I think your point about Hillis being a threat in the receiving game is valid. But, when your TE's and your RB are your team leaders in receptions, then your passing game isn't that much of a threat IMHO. Honestly, the more I think about it, the more I think Nolan is probably salivating over this match up. Key on Hillis and Watson, and force Delhomme and their WR's to beat you. That strategy will be even more effective if we jump out to an early lead. If VD and Smith are on their A-game, we win this game handily IMO. I say we win by at least a TD.
CJ...just saying our d can be gashed but it is a hell of alot better when we have Chrowder. I just finally watched the game last night and so many times I saw CC52 recognize the play before any other player and run up and fill his hole, often causing the running to change his path and usually forcing a tackle for lil or no yardage. We need to wrap up this week
If the players are anywhere near as dismissive of the opposition this week, we'll be back to praying on 50+yd field goals by halftime. Its likely the Patriots looked past them.
The Patriots had already won 7 or 8 games at that point. They weren't fighting to remain relevant. I don't see this as comparable. The team knows they need to win every game. They're not checking message boards to see how hard they should prepare.
