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Dolphins trading back from #6?

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by mlb1399, Apr 19, 2021.

  1. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    https://www.nfl.com/news/dolphins-r...ams-interested-in-pick-no-6-in-2021-nfl-draft

    I don't know how much of this is media drumming up stories while the news is slow vs a GM playing the game in case someone falls to them or some combination of both. It would be dumb that we traded from 12 to 6, giving up so much, unless we can recoup what we gave and then some.

    I wouldn't be opposed to moving back if Pitts and Chase are off the board at 6. That would mean 2 of the 3 out of Fields, Lance or Jones is available and some QB hungry team might be willing to overpay to move up again.

    Thoughts?
     
  2. Ronnie Bass

    Ronnie Bass Luxury Box Luxury Box

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    I think if Pitts and Chase or not there at #6, they could move back but not too far so they'll miss out on Waddle and Smith.
     
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  3. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Active Member

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    I wouldn't expect another trade before we're on the clock. Grier and Co. are doing due diligence so we can pull the trigger on a pick or trade on draft night. Depending on which domino falls, we'll either make the selection or move down based on teams' final offers because ten minutes isn't enough time to negotiate a deal.
     
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  4. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    Sounds stupid. The only way I'd consider it anything BUT stupid is if Chase, Smith, Sewell and Pitts are already all gone, which won't happen. If we do it, we'd better get a buttload of picks for it.
     
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  5. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

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    A trade back from either 6 or 18 is something I'm suspecting but not until draft night. As has been suggested by others, the move back up to 6 was likely made because it offers both a chance at a top flight prospect AND flexibility to haul more picks.

    If Pitts is gone but there are still 2 or 3 WRs on the board I think a trade back to something like 9 might be possible because they can still get their guy and add mid-round ammunition.

    Remember that we don't have a fourth round pick at the moment. There's a hole in our draft from 81 until 156. I suspect Grier is going to try to fill that hole by a trade back at some point.

    I certainly believe they're fielding calls because they may want to try to both determine potential trade partners in advance, as well as drum up some competition between said partners to increase the value of the pick.
     
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  6. Dorfdad

    Dorfdad Well-Known Member

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    Really stupid if they do I don’t care about getting 2 4th rounders in this draft we need playmakers and 6 is the lowest we can go and still ensure a solid pick IMHO. We had a bad free agency and we need sure fire hits in the draft
     
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  7. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Active Member

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    You're assuming the Fins aren't going to grade Sewell as BPA. If we trade with Denver and wind up with Sewell and an extra pick (or two), the braintrust might be ecstatic. Denver's been reported to have contacted the Falcons but if the Falcons take Pitts instead of a QB, we're probably their next likely trade partner. They could move in front of the Panthers and we'd only drop three slots. We may not nab a WR1 with our first pick but getting franchise LT along with a stud RB at #18 (or later) changes the dynamic on offense nearly as much.
     
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  8. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    I don’t know that we had a bad FA. I think our fan base is so used to winning FA that anything but feels bad. We addressed WR and added depth while keeping us in a good cap situation. To me that’s a win with all the draft capital and young roster that we have.
     
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  9. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

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    I've been a big fan of Sewell and he was my preferred pick for a while but I've changed my position now based on our situation at tackle. Jackson isn't a sure thing, he's coming in as a sophomore, but I think Grier is going to give him time. He came in needing time and development and while Sewell will be an immediate upgrade, I think Grier uses that first pick on a different position - unless the other top talent is all gone.

    If he is the 'consolation prize' I think they will be very happy.

    I'm not sure what they'll do with Jackson though.
     
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  10. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

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    6 to 9 then Waddle over Smith...



    Would a speedster like Waddle make Fuller and/or Grant irrelevant?
     
  11. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    Trading back down would be such a Dolphin move. Stupid and irrelevant. We HAD the 12th pick and an extra first rounder next year and we gave it up to get back to 6. Now, we're talking about trading down again and winding up with less than we had after trading for the 12th pick. So incredibly stupid.
     
  12. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

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    You seem to be jumping the gun here.
    The draft board is the draft board. If they traded up to stand a chance at a guy and he's not there, better to get value in a trade than not. And "winding up with less" depends entirely on the trade. IF this is an option Grier is considering it may well be only under certain circumstances, for example, ending up with MORE than we had before.
    Trades aren't fixed, they're flexible.

    There's nothing wrong with having options and being flexible.
     
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  13. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    There is a LOT wrong with giving up value for nothing. Which is what we will have done if we trade back down. We had two extra first round picks, one next year, one in 2023. We gave up one of those to go from 12 to 6. If we move from 6 to 9 or 10 or wherever and do not get that extra first back, then we've given up value for nothing.
     
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  14. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

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    "If we..." - that's my point. There's nothing in these rumours, or anywhere else, to suggest that the Dolphins are going to move back and do so at poor value.
     
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  15. The G Man

    The G Man Git 'r doooonnne!!!

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    What would a trade back from #6 to #9 be worth in the way of draft capital? I agree that we'd have to recoup the 2022 1st rounder we gave up to move up from#12 to #6, plus more picks this year. Is that even possible?

    Assuming QB's go in 4 of the top 5 picks (not an unrealistic possibility), then one of Pitts or Chase should still be OTB at #6. Hell, even if only 3 QB's come off the board, that still leaves Sewell, Smith & Parson in play. Not sure I see the value in trading down unless the other team is willing to make a Ricky Williams/Hershel Walker type of offer.

    Really hope their not considering moving out of the top 10.
     
  16. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

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    I think the value is at the heart of all of this. If they're going to consider it I think it's going to be because:

    1. A unique player isn't available at 6.

    AND

    2. There's a desperate trade partner jumping at the chance to hand over their money or their life...or both.

    In that case, Grier might be well on his way to committing daylight robbery.
     
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  17. tirty8

    tirty8 Well-Known Member

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    This whole moving back thing might not be as crazy as it sounds.

    I think that I have a decent read on what may be happening. My thoughts are that they traded back then up with the thoughts that they could land either Chase or Pitts at six. I would guess that if either of these guys are on the board, Grier will just make the selection. I think the Fluker signing may be tipping our hand that Sewell is not the guy.

    Is it possible that Grier botched the trades that got him to six? It certainly feels like that is within the realm of possibility. There are rumors that Atlanta will take Pitts and Cincy will take Chase. If the worst case scenario occurs, we have to accept the reality that we got too cute. I say we absolutely start engaging in trade talks. Realistically, I am working the phone with Carolina and Denver, but secretly, I am trying to drum up interest with Detroit. Looking back, the Bears were willing to give up a decent chunk of change to move up one spot and grab Mitch Trubisky. After trading Matt Stafford, Detroit has extra picks, so they are in a situation much like us where they can afford to be flexible. In the aforementioned scenario, we know that 2 of the following 3 quarterbacks would be available - (Jones, Fields, Lance). If the Lions were to go quarterback, I think it would be in their best interests and the Dolphins' best interests for them to send us a second round pick to move up one spot.

    I think if we elected to make a deal with Carolina or Denver (who I think is most apt to swing the deal), I think we could ask for and get an additional first round pick. Now, I know people are thinking about what we gave the Eagles. That is neither here nor there. Things have changed. We should look at who is left on the big board and see how many remaining guys we have very high grades on. If we still just three remaining guys that we think highly of making the move makes a lot of sense.

    -----------
    Tinfoil conspiracy theory time. Sometimes, I just get a sixth sense about the Dolphins and their moves. Call it a hunch, but I would not be surprised if Smith was our guy all along.

    If you really think about it, if Smith was always "the guy," everything the Dolphins have done up until this point makes perfect sense. First of all, reports are that the Dolphins have maintained very close contact with Smith throughout the process. We also have been rumored to want to get better at the slot position. Smith was a former teammate with Tua, and I could see Grier putting a premium on that relationship. I also do not think that as a franchise we have been that great at evaluating receivers. I would not be shocked if Miami's board had Smith over Chase.

    If you base the reports with my conjecture, let's re-examine our trades. We are sitting at 3 knowing for a fact it is too early to take Smith. We trade with SF then trade up with Philly knowing with absolute certainty that Smith will absolutely be there and we are still netting a first round pick.

    Now remember what I said before all of this maneuvering has already happened. Whether all of this works out, is neither here nor there. Now, the situation is unfolding before our eyes, and things are subject to change. Grier should still be thinking about whether or not he can drop back and secure Smith.

    Let's look at the 7th and 8th picks, and think about whether trading back will jeopardize our chances of landing Smith.

    7. Detroit - They lost Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay. They absolutely could take Smith.
    8. Carolina - Left tackle is there biggest need. With Sewell and Slater on the board, I feel safe that they will not take Smith.

    Denver is sitting at 9, and that is really as far back as I want to go. Really, Detroit is the team that is complicating this whole trade. I do think we will absolutely be able to get a tell from their front office if they are going to draft Smith. The tell is quite simple. If they are calling us about the 6 spot, quarterback is on their mind. Even if we trade with Carolina or Denver, there is a 50-50 shot their guy falls to them, and Smith winds up falling to us. If they are not on the phone with us, it comes down to Grier's risk tolerance. If they draft anyone other than Smith, we are good. But is that risk they want to take?
     
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  18. Two Tacos

    Two Tacos Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    You can get different players at 7, 8, or 9 than 12. If the draft falls so that a QB is there, why wouldn't you want Detroit, Carolina, and Denver competing to trade up? Miami could conceivably get their top target and extra.
     
    Last edited: Apr 20, 2021
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  19. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I've believed that all along. While I would take Pitts/Chase, I think the Fins are going to take Smith at #6 since he's the best receiver in this draft. You can have a Smith gain 20 pounds, but you can't teach his IQ at receiver to Pitts/Chase/Waddle. I personally think they're locked on him and I wouldn't call it a conspiracy at all.

    Remember, what fans "want" has nothing to do with the reality of what the front office is looking for or looking at in daily conversations. To me, the "tin foil" stuff is listening to fans on can't miss prospects. We have 1/100th the knowledge that the average front office person does, which makes it very easy to judge from the sidelines.

    Take someone like Vontae Davis...we all LOVED HIM at corner and thought the Fins were nuts to trade him. But then we heard his interview on Hard Knocks as he talked about having to tell his grandma...that was his only concern in the moment...and it all made a lot of sense. The Vontae we projected was not the Vontae that the team knew in real life. The words "village idiot" come to mind here because that's the nicest way I can think to phrase it. You can't build a franchise or a defense around a guy like that...
     
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  20. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

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    [​IMG]


    I will say, I'm not sure Grier has any 'no matter what' scenario - except perhaps:

    [​IMG]
     
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  21. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito. Club Member

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    I always thought this take was mean. Dude just got some bad news and wanted to talk to someone who would comfort him. Football fans are jerks.
     
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  22. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    Usually, what the fans wanted made more sense than what the Dolphins front office has wanted.
     
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  23. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

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  24. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I agree with you and my point wasn't to make fun of him...it was simply to point out that the perception of this stud CB was a lot different than the reality. He had insane natural talent but he was also difficult to use in complex schemes because of his mental maturity.
     
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  25. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito. Club Member

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    Maybe. IMO, trading Vontae and Ted Ginn were two big mistakes made by Jeff Ireland. Both made the team worse.
     
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  26. Fireland

    Fireland Member

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    You just like to complain about what they do no matter what. You hated that they traded up and are already complaining about them going back down despite not knowing what they would get. 100% you will say they are dumb even if they traded to 9 and got exactly what the Eagles got from Miami.
     
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  27. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    No, if they get a first rounder back, I will be satisfied. Not HAPPY, because I wasn't crazy about trading down, but we got a good deal from the 49ers and I could have lived with the 12th pick. Trading back up and losing that extra first next year bugged me, but if we're trading back down after doing that we HAVE to get that extra first back. If we don't there was no point in trading back up. Sorry you can't see this and are trying to make it personal.
     
  28. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Like we talked about in the other post, there's one total candidate on defense at #6...Parsons. So it's him or an offensive player.

    For offense, we're not drafting a QB at #6 or a RB or a kicker. So it's line, WR, TE or RB....or Parsons. The talent early in the draft narrows the possibilities that quickly. For line there's only one real candidate. Only one at TE as well, even though conventional wisdom says to never take a TE that high.

    And that brings us back to the exact same list we've had for months now- Smith, Chase, Waddle, Sewell, Pitts or Parsons. There's no getting around those six names.

    I think Pitts is gone at #4 or 5, and I think we know as an organization that was the likely outcome. So I don't think Pitts was ever a legit target for us. Waddle could probably have been taken at #12, so I don't think he's the target either. That leaves us Parsons, Sewell, Chase & Smith.

    One other thing- Travis's stat above. Waddle was targeted about a 3rd as much as Smith, hence the much higher completion rate. Not a knock on Waddle at all, but Smith was their "blue-collar worker" while Waddle was the specialist like our Jakeem Grant. I'm not sure we'd value a specialist at #6 and we just brought in another speedster in Fuller.

    As far as I know, we haven't talked to Sewell and to be honest, I haven't heard anything on Parsons either....so I don't know there. But we've talked to Smith A LOT, which at least proves that there's genuine interest. We have also talked to Chase but I don't know the extent, but I'd think it's down to those two players.

    So this pick is likely slot (or TE) and I think it has to be Smith. Still hoping that it's actually Chase or Pitts...but I wouldn't bet on it. We're taking the smartest offensive player in the draft that's not named Trevor Lawrence.
     
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  29. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Hey, I 100% agree. You pay that kind of capital for talent, you keep them in-house and develop them. Mistake #1 was drafting them...mistake #2 was trading them quickly. I think #2 was the bigger mistake in both instances.
     
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  30. Tin Indian

    Tin Indian Rockin' The Bottom End Club Member

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    They are not trading back unless they get a ridiculous offer or the guys they really wanted are gone. I have to believe they have their sights set on any 1 of 3 guys and they will grab them at pick 6. At least one will be there then. But if someone calls while we are on the clock you have to at least listen.
     
  31. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    Trade value chart says somewhere around a 2nd rounder. If one of the QB’s falls and someone values that QB high, could be much higher. I’ve always hear a future round pick is worth one less round than the current year pick.
     
  32. Striking

    Striking Junior Member

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    You can lay the foundation of a trade before the draft if they feel picks 3-7 are all comparable and expect their 1-2 to be taken. There's also the due diligence of some team wanting a QB... If the Patriots wanted someone and offered us enough value, and they still felt confident in the abilities second tier of WRs, why not do it?

    Parsons has had off field issues? I think that leaves him off our board at 6. 18 would be a different story.
     
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  33. The G Man

    The G Man Git 'r doooonnne!!!

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    Three things I refuse to believe as it relates to New England...

    1) That they would ever consider making a trade with a division rival.
    2) That they'd even consider trading up for a QB based the costs in terms of draft capital. Especially from #15.
    3) That BB is even considering a QB in the 1st round.

    1 & 2 are not happening, and 3 is doubtful unless Mac Jones or Trey Lance is sitting there at #15. I think both are gone by #15.
     
  34. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

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  35. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Active Member

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    You assume we'd be making the trade for peanuts. If Denver wants to move up, it's going to cost them significant assets (plural) to make that jump. The draft trade value for that jump is only a third rounder but I'd flip out if we did them that solid for less than a fourth and next year's first rounder. I'd make that swap in a minute.
     
  36. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    I already said, if we get that 2022 first rounder back, I'm okay with it. But I doubt we will.
     
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  37. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Active Member

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    We probably won't find out. Personally, like I said, if we get anything less than that AND something in the middle of this draft, I'm not happy. Denver can kick rocks and let the Panthers grab their guy.
     
  38. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    This is a different year for New England and BB. They have already been very uncharacteristic with all the free agent signings and splurges. He's feeling the heat a bit, Brady showed him up by leaving and immediately winning a Super Bowl while Bill twiddled his thumbs out of the playoffs.
     
  39. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

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    Last edited: Apr 20, 2021
  40. Striking

    Striking Junior Member

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    Laughing at Eisens befuddlement. The rationale is explained yet he still acts like he fails to comprehend the logic.
     

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