Dolphins trading back from #6?

I think if Pitts and Chase or not there at #6, they could move back but not too far so they'll miss out on Waddle and Smith.

I wouldn't expect another trade before we're on the clock. Grier and Co. are doing due diligence so we can pull the trigger on a pick or trade on draft night. Depending on which domino falls, we'll either make the selection or move down based on teams' final offers because ten minutes isn't enough time to negotiate a deal.

Sounds stupid. The only way I'd consider it anything BUT stupid is if Chase, Smith, Sewell and Pitts are already all gone, which won't happen. If we do it, we'd better get a buttload of picks for it.

A trade back from either 6 or 18 is something I'm suspecting but not until draft night. As has been suggested by others, the move back up to 6 was likely made because it offers both a chance at a top flight prospect AND flexibility to haul more picks.

If Pitts is gone but there are still 2 or 3 WRs on the board I think a trade back to something like 9 might be possible because they can still get their guy and add mid-round ammunition.

Remember that we don't have a fourth round pick at the moment. There's a hole in our draft from 81 until 156. I suspect Grier is going to try to fill that hole by a trade back at some point.

I certainly believe they're fielding calls because they may want to try to both determine potential trade partners in advance, as well as drum up some competition between said partners to increase the value of the pick.

Really stupid if they do I don’t care about getting 2 4th rounders in this draft we need playmakers and 6 is the lowest we can go and still ensure a solid pick IMHO. We had a bad free agency and we need sure fire hits in the draft

"Galant wrote:

A trade back from either 6 or 18 is something I'm suspecting but not until draft night. As has been suggested by others, the move back up to 6 was likely made because it offers both a chance at a top flight prospect AND flexibility to haul more picks.

If Pitts is gone but there are still 2 or 3 WRs on the board I think a trade back to something like 9 might be possible because they can still get their guy and add mid-round ammunition.

Remember that we don't have a fourth round pick at the moment. There's a hole in our draft from 81 until 156. I suspect Grier is going to try to fill that hole by a trade back at some point.

I certainly believe they're fielding calls because they may want to try to both determine potential trade partners in advance, as well as drum up some competition between said partners to increase the value of the pick.

You're assuming the Fins aren't going to grade Sewell as BPA. If we trade with Denver and wind up with Sewell and an extra pick (or two), the braintrust might be ecstatic. Denver's been reported to have contacted the Falcons but if the Falcons take Pitts instead of a QB, we're probably their next likely trade partner. They could move in front of the Panthers and we'd only drop three slots. We may not nab a WR1 with our first pick but getting franchise LT along with a stud RB at #18 (or later) changes the dynamic on offense nearly as much.

"Dorfdad wrote:

Really stupid if they do I don’t care about getting 2 4th rounders in this draft we need playmakers and 6 is the lowest we can go and still ensure a solid pick IMHO. We had a bad free agency and we need sure fire hits in the draft

I don’t know that we had a bad FA. I think our fan base is so used to winning FA that anything but feels bad. We addressed WR and added depth while keeping us in a good cap situation. To me that’s a win with all the draft capital and young roster that we have.

"OwesOwn614 wrote:

You're assuming the Fins aren't going to grade Sewell as BPA. If we trade with Denver and wind up with Sewell and an extra pick (or two), the braintrust might be ecstatic. Denver's been reported to have contacted the Falcons but if the Falcons take Pitts instead of a QB, we're probably their next likely trade partner. They could move in front of the Panthers and we'd only drop three slots. We may not nab a WR1 with our first pick but getting franchise LT along with a stud RB at #18 (or later) changes the dynamic on offense nearly as much.

I've been a big fan of Sewell and he was my preferred pick for a while but I've changed my position now based on our situation at tackle. Jackson isn't a sure thing, he's coming in as a sophomore, but I think Grier is going to give him time. He came in needing time and development and while Sewell will be an immediate upgrade, I think Grier uses that first pick on a different position - unless the other top talent is all gone.

If he is the 'consolation prize' I think they will be very happy.

I'm not sure what they'll do with Jackson though.

6 to 9 then Waddle over Smith...

Would a speedster like Waddle make Fuller and/or Grant irrelevant?

Trading back down would be such a Dolphin move. Stupid and irrelevant. We HAD the 12th pick and an extra first rounder next year and we gave it up to get back to 6. Now, we're talking about trading down again and winding up with less than we had after trading for the 12th pick. So incredibly stupid.

"Rick 1966 wrote:

Trading back down would be such a Dolphin move. Stupid and irrelevant. We HAD the 12th pick and an extra first rounder next year and we gave it up to get back to 6. Now, we're talking about trading down again and winding up with less than we had after trading for the 12th pick. So incredibly stupid.

You seem to be jumping the gun here.
The draft board is the draft board. If they traded up to stand a chance at a guy and he's not there, better to get value in a trade than not. And "winding up with less" depends entirely on the trade. IF this is an option Grier is considering it may well be only under certain circumstances, for example, ending up with MORE than we had before.
Trades aren't fixed, they're flexible.

There's nothing wrong with having options and being flexible.

"Galant wrote:

You seem to be jumping the gun here.
The draft board is the draft board. If they traded up to stand a chance at a guy and he's not there, better to get value in a trade than not. And "winding up with less" depends entirely on the trade. IF this is an option Grier is considering it may well be only under certain circumstances, for example, ending up with MORE than we had before.
Trades aren't fixed, they're flexible.

There's nothing wrong with having options and being flexible.

There is a LOT wrong with giving up value for nothing. Which is what we will have done if we trade back down. We had two extra first round picks, one next year, one in 2023. We gave up one of those to go from 12 to 6. If we move from 6 to 9 or 10 or wherever and do not get that extra first back, then we've given up value for nothing.

"Rick 1966 wrote:

There is a LOT wrong with giving up value for nothing. Which is what we will have done if we trade back down. We had two extra first round picks, one next year, one in 2023. We gave up one of those to go from 12 to 6. If we move from 6 to 9 or 10 or wherever and do not get that extra first back, then we've given up value for nothing.

"If we..." - that's my point. There's nothing in these rumours, or anywhere else, to suggest that the Dolphins are going to move back and do so at poor value.

What would a trade back from #6 to #9 be worth in the way of draft capital? I agree that we'd have to recoup the 2022 1st rounder we gave up to move up from#12 to #6, plus more picks this year. Is that even possible?

Assuming QB's go in 4 of the top 5 picks (not an unrealistic possibility), then one of Pitts or Chase should still be OTB at #6. Hell, even if only 3 QB's come off the board, that still leaves Sewell, Smith & Parson in play. Not sure I see the value in trading down unless the other team is willing to make a Ricky Williams/Hershel Walker type of offer.

Really hope their not considering moving out of the top 10.

I think the value is at the heart of all of this. If they're going to consider it I think it's going to be because:

1. A unique player isn't available at 6.

AND

2. There's a desperate trade partner jumping at the chance to hand over their money or their life...or both.

In that case, Grier might be well on his way to committing daylight robbery.

This whole moving back thing might not be as crazy as it sounds.

I think that I have a decent read on what may be happening. My thoughts are that they traded back then up with the thoughts that they could land either Chase or Pitts at six. I would guess that if either of these guys are on the board, Grier will just make the selection. I think the Fluker signing may be tipping our hand that Sewell is not the guy.

Is it possible that Grier botched the trades that got him to six? It certainly feels like that is within the realm of possibility. There are rumors that Atlanta will take Pitts and Cincy will take Chase. If the worst case scenario occurs, we have to accept the reality that we got too cute. I say we absolutely start engaging in trade talks. Realistically, I am working the phone with Carolina and Denver, but secretly, I am trying to drum up interest with Detroit. Looking back, the Bears were willing to give up a decent chunk of change to move up one spot and grab Mitch Trubisky. After trading Matt Stafford, Detroit has extra picks, so they are in a situation much like us where they can afford to be flexible. In the aforementioned scenario, we know that 2 of the following 3 quarterbacks would be available - (Jones, Fields, Lance). If the Lions were to go quarterback, I think it would be in their best interests and the Dolphins' best interests for them to send us a second round pick to move up one spot.

I think if we elected to make a deal with Carolina or Denver (who I think is most apt to swing the deal), I think we could ask for and get an additional first round pick. Now, I know people are thinking about what we gave the Eagles. That is neither here nor there. Things have changed. We should look at who is left on the big board and see how many remaining guys we have very high grades on. If we still just three remaining guys that we think highly of making the move makes a lot of sense.

-----------
Tinfoil conspiracy theory time. Sometimes, I just get a sixth sense about the Dolphins and their moves. Call it a hunch, but I would not be surprised if Smith was our guy all along.

If you really think about it, if Smith was always "the guy," everything the Dolphins have done up until this point makes perfect sense. First of all, reports are that the Dolphins have maintained very close contact with Smith throughout the process. We also have been rumored to want to get better at the slot position. Smith was a former teammate with Tua, and I could see Grier putting a premium on that relationship. I also do not think that as a franchise we have been that great at evaluating receivers. I would not be shocked if Miami's board had Smith over Chase.

If you base the reports with my conjecture, let's re-examine our trades. We are sitting at 3 knowing for a fact it is too early to take Smith. We trade with SF then trade up with Philly knowing with absolute certainty that Smith will absolutely be there and we are still netting a first round pick.

Now remember what I said before all of this maneuvering has already happened. Whether all of this works out, is neither here nor there. Now, the situation is unfolding before our eyes, and things are subject to change. Grier should still be thinking about whether or not he can drop back and secure Smith.

Let's look at the 7th and 8th picks, and think about whether trading back will jeopardize our chances of landing Smith.

7. Detroit - They lost Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay. They absolutely could take Smith.
8. Carolina - Left tackle is there biggest need. With Sewell and Slater on the board, I feel safe that they will not take Smith.

Denver is sitting at 9, and that is really as far back as I want to go. Really, Detroit is the team that is complicating this whole trade. I do think we will absolutely be able to get a tell from their front office if they are going to draft Smith. The tell is quite simple. If they are calling us about the 6 spot, quarterback is on their mind. Even if we trade with Carolina or Denver, there is a 50-50 shot their guy falls to them, and Smith winds up falling to us. If they are not on the phone with us, it comes down to Grier's risk tolerance. If they draft anyone other than Smith, we are good. But is that risk they want to take?

"Rick 1966 wrote:

Trading back down would be such a Dolphin move. Stupid and irrelevant. We HAD the 12th pick and an extra first rounder next year and we gave it up to get back to 6. Now, we're talking about trading down again and winding up with less than we had after trading for the 12th pick. So incredibly stupid.

You can get different players at 7, 8, or 9 than 12. If the draft falls so that a QB is there, why wouldn't you want Detroit, Carolina, and Denver competing to trade up? Miami could conceivably get their top target and extra.

"tirty8 wrote:

Tinfoil conspiracy theory time. Sometimes, I just get a sixth sense about the Dolphins and their moves. Call it a hunch, but I would not be surprised if Smith was our guy all along.

I've believed that all along. While I would take Pitts/Chase, I think the Fins are going to take Smith at #6 since he's the best receiver in this draft. You can have a Smith gain 20 pounds, but you can't teach his IQ at receiver to Pitts/Chase/Waddle. I personally think they're locked on him and I wouldn't call it a conspiracy at all.

Remember, what fans "want" has nothing to do with the reality of what the front office is looking for or looking at in daily conversations. To me, the "tin foil" stuff is listening to fans on can't miss prospects. We have 1/100th the knowledge that the average front office person does, which makes it very easy to judge from the sidelines.

Take someone like Vontae Davis...we all LOVED HIM at corner and thought the Fins were nuts to trade him. But then we heard his interview on Hard Knocks as he talked about having to tell his grandma...that was his only concern in the moment...and it all made a lot of sense. The Vontae we projected was not the Vontae that the team knew in real life. The words "village idiot" come to mind here because that's the nicest way I can think to phrase it. You can't build a franchise or a defense around a guy like that...

"KeyFin wrote:

I've believed that all along. While I would take Pitts/Chase, I think the Fins are going to take Smith at #6 since he's the best receiver in this draft. You can have a Smith gain 20 pounds, but you can't teach his IQ at receiver to Pitts/Chase/Waddle. I personally think they're locked on him and I wouldn't call it a conspiracy at all...

I will say, I'm not sure Grier has any 'no matter what' scenario - except perhaps:

"KeyFin wrote:

I've believed that all along. While I would take Pitts/Chase, I think the Fins are going to take Smith at #6 since he's the best receiver in this draft. You can have a Smith gain 20 pounds, but you can't teach his IQ at receiver to Pitts/Chase/Waddle. I personally think they're locked on him and I wouldn't call it a conspiracy at all.

Remember, what fans "want" has nothing to do with the reality of what the front office is looking for or looking at in daily conversations. To me, the "tin foil" stuff is listening to fans on can't miss prospects. We have 1/100th the knowledge that the average front office person does, which makes it very easy to judge from the sidelines.

Take someone like Vontae Davis...we all LOVED HIM at corner and thought the Fins were nuts to trade him. But then we heard his interview on Hard Knocks as he talked about having to tell his grandma...that was his only concern in the moment...and it all made a lot of sense. The Vontae we projected was not the Vontae that the team knew in real life. The words "village idiot" come to mind here because that's the nicest way I can think to phrase it. You can't build a franchise or a defense around a guy like that...

I always thought this take was mean. Dude just got some bad news and wanted to talk to someone who would comfort him. Football fans are jerks.

"KeyFin wrote:

Remember, what fans "want" has nothing to do with the reality of what the front office is looking for or looking at in daily conversations.

Usually, what the fans wanted made more sense than what the Dolphins front office has wanted.

"Dol-Fan Dupree wrote:

I always thought this take was mean. Dude just got some bad news and wanted to talk to someone who would comfort him. Football fans are jerks.

I agree with you and my point wasn't to make fun of him...it was simply to point out that the perception of this stud CB was a lot different than the reality. He had insane natural talent but he was also difficult to use in complex schemes because of his mental maturity.

"KeyFin wrote:

I agree with you and my point wasn't to make fun of him...it was simply to point out that the perception of this stud CB was a lot different than the reality. He had insane natural talent but he was also difficult to use in complex schemes because of his mental maturity.

Maybe. IMO, trading Vontae and Ted Ginn were two big mistakes made by Jeff Ireland. Both made the team worse.