Dolphins reportedly ‘want’ to pay Tua Tagovailoa but aren’t sure about his fair market value

I find it somewhat hilarious that we made Tua play through his fourth season and exercised the 5th year option on him, ostensibly to see if he could get through a season without being injured. He managed to do that and actually played well for the year. Meanwhile, his draftmates all got extended before their fourth seasons and Burrow and Herbert have both missed huge chunks of games after they got extended and nobody applies injuries toward their narratives. I would not be surprised to see him hold out because regardless of how well he does this year or how much the market increases next season, he already lost more money than he's going to make up when compared to Burrow, Herbert, Hurts, and Lawrence. Yeah, it's a business. But when you make that clear, you also make it known that both sides have to do what's best for them and Tua would be foolish to believe there is any loyalty among a management group that tried to trade him and is willing to show that they don't regard him as highly as other teams regard their QBs, regardless of injury.

If he plays the season out on his rookie deal, I'm betting we're looking for another QB in 2025.

 

INT counts, and it counts a lot in terms of change in win probability.

Also, Mahomes has a history of playing great in the postseason. Tua does not. Mahomes is actually slightly better in the postseason than in the regular season which is amazing: 103.5 for the regular season versus 105.8 for the post-season. And that's over 18 games with 672 attempts. If Tua ever has a long history of playing well in the postseason, then a bad performance here or there can be discounted. That's not the case yet. Thus far, he hasn't played well in do-or-die games. It's important to acknowledge that instead of making excuses for it. This is a risk with Tua and will remain so until he proves otherwise.

 

Very fair assessment!

 

We need to see more of the Tua from 2022 Ravens game and 2023 chargers game.
If we get that Tua we will be dangerous as any team in this league.
We get the Tua end of 2023 then we will be looking for new Qb in 2025.

 

Yeah and the fact he's proven he can overcome team weaknesses in many individual games tells me he eventually will do that in the postseason. But he needs to show this soon. Can't wait too long or his chances will run out.

 

Most everybody here criticized the Chargers for extending Herbert before the 4th season but, he had definitely played well during his rookie season. Burrows has been to the big game and Cincy fans were expecting more of the same. What Grier is doing is a head scratcher. Maybe Ross is somehow involved with dreams of luring Brady out of retirement, who knows. Something better happen soon or, it won't end well.

 

Clock is ticking.Cant keep.coming up small when the good teams roll into town at end of season.

 

Watching the All-22 of Tua's playoff game against the Chiefs makes me wonder what any QB was going to do to win on that day. In this film, I see a lot of pressure by KC alongside great coverage. There are a handful of bad throws and also a few (5 max) bad reads that were probably caused by a lack of time more than they were bad decisions. Personally, I see a lot of poorly designed plays, almost no separation, a rapidly collapsing pocket, and plenty of blame to go around. I was surprised watching it because I recalled it being much worse from his standpoint than it seems to be now.

So, it's true that he lost his only playoff game. But it's also very true that he had a patchwork OL, sketchy play calling, a wind chill that was ridiculous, and the best team in football on the other side of the line. IMHO, it's one thing to say that he didn't do enough for us to win (which is undoubtedly true). But it's a little bit of overkill to blame the loss on his performance that day.

 

Tua proved many times that he could play really well despite a bad OL, and some QBs play really well in cold weather. So there's no excuse really for his bad play. Also, no one is blaming the loss completely on Tua. That's a strawman. But he definitely played an important part in the loss.

As far as QBs who play well in cold weather, Aaron Rodgers has a record of 28-8 in the regular season and 6-3 in the postseason in below freezing temperatures. Favre for his first 14 years in the league was an unbelievable 39-6 when the temp was below 40. Those stats are WAY beyond what could be explained just by playing on a good team. There's QB ability shining in those stats. So no excuses for Tua. He's proven people wrong on almost everything else, just not this yet.

 

If Tua wasn’t there I wanted Love so imo it’s not crazy for those who were high on Love, him going late first was a steal.

Tua should of red shirted his rookie year.

 

Gaining 25 lbs during a season will do that to you

 

First off, Tua has played in exactly one playoff game. You know that is way too small of a sample size to draw any conclusions.

Also the temperature for the Chiefs game was -4 degrees at kickoff with a wind chill making it -27. It was literally one of the coldest games ever. There is a world of difference in those conditions and games in the 20 and 30s, which are pretty standard fare (note how many games played Farve in those conditions) for northern teams.

 

Doesn’t change the validity of anything I said. Until proven otherwise Tua’s performance in do-or-die games is an issue. And it’s not just that one playoff game. It’s crucial games late in the season to make the playoffs or determine seeding.

 

So you want even fewer posts on this forum? lol

Most of the stuff posted during the season is a rehash, and that’s when new data keeps coming in from games being played. Hard not to rehash things when nothing new is happening!

 

Well he did lose it so will see what happens.
Really no excuses this.I think we have to most talent at the skill.postions of any team in this league.

 

Of course they count, and I can't remember the situation on that INT, but INT's can happen for more reasons than the QB.

Besides, that's not really my point. My point is, Mahomes is maybe the GOAT and plays EXTRODINARY in the post season. However, in this game, and with the best defense in the league at home, and with tons of post season experience he didn't really play much better than Tua. I've preached this forever, but context matters. And this context needs to be included. To me it seems both QB's were affected by the weather, a lot, but one QB has had tons of experience, was playing at home on a healthy team, and had a great defense on the other side.

Tua's ONE playoff game, and while comparing him to maybe the GOAT, we see they weren't that much different. That is more encouraging than anything else to me.

 

The INT was on Tua.

And no, Tua didn't play like Mahomes. Statistically Tua = 63.9 vs. Mahomes = 83.6. But if you ignore stats, Tua was making all kinds of bad throws in cases where you couldn't blame pressure, including multiple "could've been INTs".

No, I came away from that game very disappointed in Tua's play. He had a great season, proving he was durable enough, proving he could play at elite levels for 2 years in a row, etc. But the most important game of the season — the playoff game — he played like a QB you couldn't rely on to win the SB.

 

I put the playoff loss squarely on Coach I gotta say. Tua made a few mistakes, the INT being the most critical. But we had early and consistentish success running the ball against that Def and really failed to keep it going. Feel like coach panicked a bit as soon as we got down a score and just bailed on the run game to chase big plays. Hope he learned from it.

 

I’ve said it time and time and time again…and Brad will pull out his list and charts of stats to dispute it but if you can’t run the ball, you can’t throw the ball, especially in frigid cold weather games.

The Dolphins have a significant home field advantage with the BRUTAL heat and humidity of south Florida to beat the crap out of opponents. Northern teams…and I mean cities that truly have a WINTER hold a significant home field advantage over us. Those of you who live in areas with a significant winter know what I’m talking about. The bitter cold HURTS after a while. I know!

I’ve been in some of the coldest places and my ability to perform a certain task in 90 degree weather vs -20 degree weather is severely hampered by that extreme temperature difference.

In football, you have to adjust to that by running the dang ball. Pure, hard nose, smash mouthed, trench warfare football. Assert your physical will over your opponent’s. That is the great equalizer and if a team, in this case the Dolphins bs KC, fails to make that adjustment? Well we all saw the outcome.

Like you, I certainly hope this is a lesson learned.

 

Just simply not true. The coldest game in NFL history was the Ice Bowl, the 1967 NFL Championship game, with a game-time temperature of -15 °F and a wind-chill of -48 °F. Neither side could run the ball well. In an era where running dominated you only had 80 yards by Green Bay, the winning team, and 92 yards by the losing team, the Cowboys. The winning team had less rushing yards than the losing team!

The game was won through the air. Bart Starr had a 111.6 rating — which is MASSIVE for that era because average passer rating in 1967 was 66.6!!! — with 2 TDs and no INTs.

So you're provably wrong here. I mean.. stats = actual data on what happened. There's no credible disputing this lol.

 

Oh Brad, you look at the wrong stats my friend. You’re illustrating yards gained but you’re forgetting the more important stat…the number of rushes attempted.

GB rushed 31 times to 24 pass attempts. All of those rushing attempts kept the focus of Dallas’ defense on stopping the run and opened up the passing game for Starr; 14-24 for 191 and 2 TDs.

Dallas’ offensive output was similar, 31 rushes to 26 pass attempts. Meredith just wasn’t as productive going 10 of 25 for 59 yards and 1 Int.

Major contributing factor, the frigid cold. Although Dallas does get a bit of cold during the winter months, they never see frigid temperatures like what was in Green Bay. The Packers were used to the cold, the Cowboys weren’t.

Now, before you jump up and down crying out, SEE? The Dolphins only rushed the ball 14 times to 39 passing plays…and if you want to add Tua’s 3 scrambles, those were 3 additional passing plays, so 41 passing plays to 14. That AIN’T going to cut it.

The Chiefs opening drive consisted of 4 passes and 4 runs. The Dolphins opening drive consisted of 2 runs, 1 pass and a punt.

The Chiefs next possession; 1 rush, 2 passes and a punt. The Dolphins 4 rushes, 3 passes the last resulting in an interception, but in that possession, the Dolphins moved the ball 24 yards on the ground and 9 yards passing. The interception killed what was a productive drive but this is where McDaniel screwed up.

You just moved the ball 24 yards on the ground and instead of staying on the ground, he called 3 consecutive passing plays, the last resulting in the interception.

The ground game is your best friend in cold weather games. It doesn’t matter whether those rushing plays result in big plays or just keeps the defense honest, you stick to the run and call the pass play when you have the defense where you want them.

Miami didn’t do that, fell too far behind and was held hostage to the passing game. I’m sorry you can’t see basic tactics and only stats.

 

You claimed "if you can’t run the ball, you can’t throw the ball, especially in frigid cold weather games". That claim refers to how effective you are at running, not how many attempts you have.

I proved your claim wrong.

And even on the attempts front it's not true. One of the coldest games in history (top 10) is Raiders at Buffalo Jan 15th, 1994 (Divisional round playoffs, 0 °F, wind chill -32 °F). Buffalo won 29-23. They had 30 rushing attempts for only 75 yards but Jim Kelly passed for 287 yards and 2 TDs on 37 attempts with a 113.2 rating.

So wrong either way. Running effectively and running more are not necessary to have a great passing game, or win the game, in frigid cold weather.

 

Little soon to be rewarding Love, no?

PS. These qb contracts are beyond ridiculous.

 

No you didn’t. You re-enforces my claim. You yourself just said the Bills rushed the ball 30 times…THIRTY!!! With 37 pass attempts.

That’s rushing the ball Brad. Had you said the Bills ran the ball only 13 times to 37 passes, you’d have a valid counter…but not with 30 rushes.

 

Give it up dude. I disproved both of your arguments.

Your first quote said "if you can’t run the ball, you can’t throw the ball, especially in frigid cold weather games". Again, that's about effectiveness, not number of attempts. Just admit you made an incorrect claim and move on.

And regarding attempts, your quote is "Oh Brad, you look at the wrong stats my friend. You’re illustrating yards gained but you’re forgetting the more important stat…the number of rushes attempted. GB rushed 31 times to 24 pass attempts."

You made it perfectly clear that what mattered was relative number of attempts, not absolute number, i.e., which is larger, not how large something is in absolute terms (otherwise why compare 31 to 24? Why not focus on just the number 31 without mentioning 24? Right.. because it's relative number). I disproved that too.

Right now you're engaging in the type of goalpost moving we saw from anti-Tua posters. That's two posts in a row you did that. I suggest you stop. Both of your claims are provably false.

And you should know that 30 attempts is NOT that high. Average in 1994 was 28. An example of a cold weather game where the number of attempts (raw attempts now.. after your goalpost moving) was well below average but passing stats were very good is when Green Bay faced Houston on December 7th, 2008 where the temperature was 3 °F with wind chill -3 °F.

Total rushing attempts for GNB was only 20 (league average in 2008 = 27.6) while Aaron Rodgers had a 104.2 rating with 30 passing attempts. And remember, the Dolphins had 18 rushing attempts in their loss to KC, so 20 attempts is similar. GNB lost that game and the number of rushing yards was respectable at 108, but that's not your claim after the latest goalpost moving. Your latest claim is that you need a large number of rushing attempts to have a good passing game in frigid weather. Once again, wrong. Seriously, give it up dude.

 

You hit the nail on the head - there really isn’t another option, so just pay the man and end this saga. Trying to save a few dimes is making them (mostly Grier) look bad. If they really don’t believe in him (a theory I don’t subscribe to), then they should have traded him by now. You can’t expect him or anyone on the team to be happy if they try to trot him out there making $23 million when his peers are making double that, even the ones who haven’t really proven anything.

 

You disproved nothing Brad. I’ve demonstrated time and time again that if your offense isn’t balanced, the odds of winning diminish.

Why do you think I go through the painstaking process of breaking down drives? You continuously assert the run is important only to run out the clock. I break down drives to clearly demonstrate those that are balanced result in the ball being moved effectively down the field and points on the board.

Im not going to be obnoxious and say give it up dude. I may not be mathematically inclined as you and others here are citing z-factor, deviations and all these other numbers you like to quote, but I know when I watch a competent team with a relatively equal number of rushes to passes on a drive, it tends to result in success.

Jumping off the merry-go-round.

 

This is my underlying fear, Grier had the opportunity to sign Tua and is now in a pickle…and gambling with the team’s future.

With the hire of Mike McDaniel and the explosive offensive output, with Tua leading the league in nearly every significant passing categories over the past 2 seasons, the hesitation to extend Tua is an enigma. The Tua we’ve seen over the past 2 seasons is the Tua everyone expected to see the day he was drafted.

While Grier has put together an explosive offensive unit, he’s done so at the risk of the Dolphins fiscal solvency. If the Dolphins weren’t is such dire straits in regards to the salary cap, I really don’t think there would have been any obstacles extending Tua LAST year.

 

Unbelievable. You say X is true I explicitly show it's not and you don't have the integrity to admit you're wrong. Then you move goalposts twice I prove each one wrong and you simply can't man up and admit you're wrong. Total lack of integrity. Maybe you should take a look at what you actually write instead of what you think you want to say. I explicitly disproved what you actually wrote.

So it's clear.

1. You do NOT need an effective running game in frigid weather for the QB to play great. The coldest game in NFL history shows that, and in the NFL championship game to boot. Bart Starr put up a 111.6 rating when the league average was 66.6 even when their running game gained only 80 yards.

2. You do NOT need a large number of rushing attempts or balanced play calling for the QB to play well in frigid weather. When Green Bay faced Houston Aaron Rodgers put up a 104.2 rating when they rushed only 20 times compared to 30 passing attempts. This 20 times rushing compares to the 18 Miami had against KC in similar weather.

So anyone trying to suggest you need a lot of rushing attempts or an effective running game in frigid weather for the QB to do well, and in playoff games, is simply wrong. You can't use the running game as an excuse for Tua's play.

Either way TDK you're now in the same category of goalpost movers as the anti-Tua posters who kept doing that last year.

 

Go re-read what I said.

I said you have to run the ball.

 

Want to try this again? OK. I'll give you another chance.

Post #63. I quoted this from you:
"I’ve said it time and time and time again…and Brad will pull out his list and charts of stats to dispute it but if you can’t run the ball, you can’t throw the ball, especially in frigid cold weather games."

Notice you are saying if you "can't run the ball".. that does not mean if you don't try to run the ball. It means if you CANNOT run the ball, so the focus is on effectiveness, which could either be yards per rushing attempt or total yards.

My Bart Starr example directly proves you wrong there: 111.6 rating when the league average was 66.6 even when their running game gained only 80 yards. There's no way to argue against that. But you moved the goalposts instead of admitting I disproved what you said. Care to retract now?

And the Aaron Rodgers example disproves your 2nd and 3rd claims, which are:
"Oh Brad, you look at the wrong stats my friend. You’re illustrating yards gained but you’re forgetting the more important stat…the number of rushes attempted. GB rushed 31 times to 24 pass attempts."

and

"No you didn’t. You re-enforces my claim. You yourself just said the Bills rushed the ball 30 times…THIRTY!!! With 37 pass attempts. That’s rushing the ball Brad. Had you said the Bills ran the ball only 13 times to 37 passes, you’d have a valid counter…but not with 30 rushes."

I showed you an example with 20 rushes vs. 30 passing attempts in similar weather to the 18 rushing attempts the Dolphins had vs. KC with the QB putting up a 104.2 rating.

First, admit I disproved what you actually wrote then we can continue with other claims. But right now you're just goalpost moving.

 

From a cbssports.com article about players who might hold out of training camp:

The Pro Bowl quarterback was in and out of Miami's spring program before reporting to mandatory minicamp, where he admitted to growing impatience over long-term contract talks. Declaring that "the market is the market," Tagovailoa has reportedly yet to receive an offer from the Dolphins that's comparable to recent deals signed by fellow signal-callers Jared Goff and Trevor Lawrence. He's likely torn between playing the good soldier and wanting to secure a pay raise before risking another injury, which makes a hold in a distinct possibility. Instead of risking $40,000 daily fines by skipping camp altogether, he could show up and participate in limited fashion, with unofficial approval from the coaches.

Prediction: Reports to camp as a "hold in"

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/...e-lamb-amari-cooper-among-big-names-to-watch/

 

I hope it doesn’t come this this, but maybe Tua needs to take a page out of Marino’s playbook.

https://www.latimes.com/archives/la... Dan Marino,returning to the team immediately.

 

If Grier truly doesn’t want to give TuaHoff/Lawrence money, he’s really going to be in a bind if the rumored extension for Love happens first:

https://phinphanatic.com/posts/late...phins-chris-grier-tua-tagovailoa-01j3akv970vf

 

Grier's stance on securing Tua is the GM equivalent of Flo's canned "Tua is our QB" non-answers when he was asked about rumored efforts to replace him. Saying you're happy with your QB but want to "find a deal that works for both sides" is proof that you're not that happy with your QB. There's going to be a market for QBs next offseason and we very well might need a new one. That'll make some of our posters happy, so it's not all bad.

Meanwhile:

Jordan Love won't practice without deal, but Packers optimistic

Rob Demovsky, ESPN Staff Writer
Jul 22, 2024, 10:36 AM ET
GREEN BAY, Wis. -- The Packers and Jordan Love may be nearing an agreement on a contract extension, but until it's done, the starting quarterback won't participate in practice or any games this preseason.

Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst said Monday shortly before the team's first practice of training camp that Love's representatives informed him Saturday night of their plans before a deal gets done.

"We completely understand where he's coming from," Gutekunst said.

Love did report for training camp on time and take part in meetings and other training camp activities except for practice. Previously, Love took part in the entire offseason program and the team's mandatory minicamp in June to fulfill requirements for a $500,000 workout bonus.

When asked whether an extension could get done within a few days, Gutekunst said: "Yeah, I think so, but again, you never know. We're working really hard to get that done. At the same time, the thing I have confidence in is we both want the same thing."

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/40616528/jordan-love-practice-deal-packers-optimistic