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Dolphins Plans for QB

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Galant, Jan 25, 2019.

What Should the Dolphins do at QB?

  1. Ditch RT17 - Draft High this year - QB answer is?

    13 vote(s)
    19.1%
  2. Ditch RT17 - Aim for 2020 - QB answer is?

    21 vote(s)
    30.9%
  3. Ditch RT17 - Aim for 2021 - QB answer is?

    3 vote(s)
    4.4%
  4. Ditch RT17 - Draft first round QB every year until you find one.

    6 vote(s)
    8.8%
  5. Keep RT17 for 2019 - Aim for 2020 - QB answer is?

    9 vote(s)
    13.2%
  6. Keep RT17 for 2019 - Draft High this year - QB answer is?

    7 vote(s)
    10.3%
  7. Keep RT17 for 2019 - Aim for 2021- QB answer is?

    1 vote(s)
    1.5%
  8. Keep RT17 for 2019 - Draft first round QB until you find one?

    7 vote(s)
    10.3%
  9. Keep RT17 and give him another shot - Draft low 2019, high only if doesn't work out.

    1 vote(s)
    1.5%
  1. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

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    I've disliked Fielder just for the fact he simply wasn't good enough at QB. He had heart, he did as much as he could within his limitations, but he simply lacked the abilities of good-great QBs. Wanny thought he was good enough though, and wasted some prime years of a great defense and running game trying to make it work.

    Pennington could have been special, but his shoulder was held together by scotch tape and tissue paper. Except for that major issue, Chad was good enough to win a Super Bowl with a solid defense and running game around him.

    Tanny on some of those Fielder teams? Probably peaks at a Trent Green level, but that would have been good enough for playoffs, and maybe a Super Bowl? The better coaches/defenses would have stacked the box and forced Tanny to beat them with his passing, so I don't know about any deep playoff runs.
     
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  2. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Staff Member Club Member

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    I think that RT could and would have played at a peak Trent Green level in those days, yeah. Thats a good analogy. 4000-4500 yards, 25-30 TD passes. Sub that out for what Feidler gave us, and man, those 11-5, 9-7, 10-6 years become a whole lot better.
     
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  3. Agua

    Agua Reality: Try It!

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    That's what they did with Fiedler. Fiedler had a ****ty arm and accuracy and overestimated his skill resulting in way too many interceptions. Tanny could have pulled that off.
     
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  4. Agua

    Agua Reality: Try It!

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    Yeah, if you could have transplanted Fiedler's heart and awareness on Tanny, you'd have an all pro.
     
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  5. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Staff Member Club Member

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    I personally think that Fiedler had terribly awareness. He had a ton of heart and gave max effort, yes. He was also clearly book smart. But he not only was limited by his physical abilities, he would also make really, really bad choices about what to do in many situations.

    He'd have the choice of throwing a short pass to a wide open player, or having a wide open field in front of him to run and slide, and he'd heave a deep pass into double coverage instead. And often this came when the Fins were already around midfield, or just outside of FG range. He killed so many scoring drives this way.
     
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  6. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree I drink your milkshake! Club Member

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    His arm was so bad. There only quarterback I have seen worse with the pick six is Matt Schaub.

    He could not throw a quick out pass. He did not have the arm for that.
     
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  7. Agua

    Agua Reality: Try It!

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    I guess I was putting most of that under the category of "overestimated his skill" in that he'd throw for the big play he couldn't pull off rather than take what was available.
     
  8. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

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    Thoughts on this?

    If Murray is there at 13 take him. Then still plan to draft a top QB in 2020. Then see which one pans out?

    Possible scenarios:
    You can't guarantee the one you want is available.
    Both are top quality = you have a trade resource - proven QB's can bring in a haul and/or you can mitigate any risk of Murray leaving for baseball.
    Only one is top quality = you got one!
    Neither one works out = proof drafting a QB is hard or Grier sucks - you'd then have to look on to 2021.

    I'm not sure I'd reach for Murray this year unless it was only one or two spots up - or Grier is 100% certain Murray is the man AND he'll stick around. But at 13 I understand taking him.
     
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  9. Tin Indian

    Tin Indian Rockin' The Bottom End

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    Fiedler drove me crazy. One of the worst arms ever. Every time he threw the 10-15 yard out to the sidelines a Corner would jump the route because it took FOREVER for the ball to get there. He mastered the art of the big interception at the worst possible time too.
     
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  10. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    I roll my eyes whenever I hear that phrase, like it means anything.

    He's the best QB since Marino because of decades of incompetence in the draft room and free agency, not because he edged out other legitimate Dolphin quarterbacks.
     
    Last edited: Feb 9, 2019
  11. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    I know one thing and that's Jay Fiedler quarterbacked one of my favorite Dolphins comebacks/wins of all time up in Denver on snowy 10/13/2002. He was a guy who played above his talents. I honestly thought the team had turned a corner with him at QB in that game, it's too bad the thumb injury derailed the 5-1 start.

    The weirdest part about Fiedler was he replaced Marino after he and his Jags curb stomped the Dolphins in the 2000 playoffs.
     
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  12. Desides

    Desides Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Except, he did edge other quarterbacks out, especially early in his career. He also outperformed the other Dolphins QBs in the time period we're talking about; his closest competition is Chad Pennington, and Tannehill's worst seasons were better than what Pennington gave us in 2008.

    You can dislike Tannehill without engaging in silly relativism to diminish him.
     
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  13. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    Please name me the renowned QB's he edged out while benefiting from playing under the same coach and offense he ran in college. Nobody is going to remember David Garrard or Matt Moore.

    Btw Pennington played 1 full season with the Dolphins at the backend of his career. He commanded an 11-5 win team and his numbers were better than Tannehill's career averages.

    The only thing Tannehill should be remembered for is being the 2nd most talented QB we ever had and one who failed to live up to that talent.
     
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  14. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Not even close to true.

    Chad Pennington was the 2nd best starting QB in 2008 by passer rating. The last time any Dolphins QB ever did that Marino in his prime. Tannehill's best ever was 12th best. You can't compare raw stats without adjusting for era. Otherwise why not just make the argument that Tannehill is as good as Marino. I mean they have similar (unadjusted) career passer ratings!

    Just for reference, Pennington in 2008 had a 97.4 rating when the league average was 83.2! Tannehill had low 90's passer rating in 2014 and 2016 when the average was just below 90. BIG difference. Pennington's 2008 season is an outlier in a post-Marino history of average or worse than average Dolphins QB's. It's too bad the guy got injured.
     
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  15. Desides

    Desides Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    This is moving the goalposts. You are making a fundamentally emotional argument and there's no way to logically respond to that.
     
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  16. Desides

    Desides Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Where did I cite a statistical argument? If you'd like to do this yourself, you can, but my point has nothing to do with relative statistical performance. I compared career peeks and total body of work among all Dolphins QBs post-Marino. I didn't compare those QBs to other NFL QBs or cross-era. (By the way, the idea that we're in a different era than 2008 is silly; remember that the Patriots set modern records in 2007.)
     
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  17. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    BRADY DOWNPLAYS DOLPHINS WIN
    Oh s--t.

    During a post-game interview with ESPN, Patriots quarterback Tom Brady downplayed the Dolphins’ 34-33 victory over the Patriots on Dec. 9, a game won on a 69-yard touchdown as time expired.

    “I don’t count the Miami game as a loss,” Brady said smiling. “So really had one loss after the bye [to Pittsburgh]. We kind of had a win [but] it’s in the loss column.”


    Read more here: https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/...y-jackson/article225504025.html#storylink=cpy
     
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  18. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Sure, I'll use stats to argue Pennington was way above average in 2008 while no other post-Marino QB was even if you won't. Obviously you can have your opinion, but it's really hard to put up the stats Pennington did relative to league average while being an average QB like Tannehill. Indeed Tannehill never did that, relative to the league.

    As far as whether 2018 is different enough compared to 2008 that you should adjust for era, that argument HAS to be made through stats and the average today is around one standard deviation above league average in 2008, so yes you need to adjust for era.
     
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  19. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    Not at all.

    It was to illustrate how empty the phrase "Tannehill is the best QB we've had since Marino." It literally means nothing.
     
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  20. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    He won't get it.

    Great job cbrad! You always manage to apply real meaning to stats - especially when adjusting for era.
     
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  21. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Staff Member Club Member

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    Stats can't tell the story of how all of those plays developed in 2008, though. Such a high percentage of Pennington's success was either based on confusing the opponent and throwing to wide open players, or otherwise throwing passes that the receivers made unbelievable catches on (Tedd Ginn even made several that he had no business making).

    Its of course subjective, but I think that Pennington's 2008, along with that whole team, can't be taken at face value. Had they attempted to play the year "straight", then the Arizona game, where they lost 10-31, and the only TD came in garbage time, was likely what would have happened all year long. And honestly, after ten games that season, with the exception of passer rating, his numbers weren't anything to write home about even at face value.
     
  22. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    It's not just passer rating that was great after game 10. In games 11-16 he had 11 TD's and 2 INT's!!
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/P/PennCh01/gamelog/2008/

    How can you say those are "numbers that weren't anything to write home about even at face value"?


    EDIT: I guess you might have meant "in his first 10 games". In that case look at his completion percentage of 67%, which in 2008 would be 2nd best, and his Y/A of 7.91, which in 2008 is 4th best (his ANY/A which has a high correlation to win% is also very high), etc...

    Either way.. no need to cherry pick first 10 or last 6 games. His efficiency stats in 2008 were elite relative to the competition. You're right that the stats don't tell you why of course.
     
    Last edited: Feb 10, 2019
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  23. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Pennington was twice the QB Tannehill was imo..The notion he wasn't is confusing.
     
  24. Surfs Up 99

    Surfs Up 99 Team Flores

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    At least Pennington knew what the hell was going on. When he was QB, I had confidence in our team. With Tannehill, I was always anxious about who would show up. The guy who had it together, or the guy who had his head in la la land.
     
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  25. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    If Tannehill has GOOD protection then he's going to win the game for you. With decent protection, who the heck knows what will happen. And with bad protection, he's going to be the opposing team's leading scorer.

    I've been on both sides of the fence- I've praised the guy and cussed him. I was also quick to point out that Moore's stats in the year he came off the bench were superior to RT's in almost every key area. But I always came back to Tannehill having ridiculous talent....he's easily the 2nd most talented QB we've had in the franchise. It just doesn't always translate since he's so bad with pressure.

    At this point, I think it's silly to trash the guy.....it's impossible to not say that he didn't give everything he had for Miami. He played hurt often and shook off every massive hit his porous line allowed. He was a great competitor and I respect the guy anyway, even though he probably has the worst pocket awareness I've ever seen in pro football.

    Besides, I don't think Tannehill is gone just yet. If he's on the roster for training camp, he will out-play anyone that comes in behind him. His skills are fantastic and even though he's rumored to be gone, I wouldn't be shocked if our new coach doesn't see what everyone else has saw on the practice field.....RT is the real deal. Because remember, there's no need for pocket presence in practice....you get a one-handed love tap or you don't. And I think that's why he's been the ultimate tease all these years.

    Plain and simple though, we know the guy will give you top 5 numbers if you protect him. It would be A LOT easier to fix the line than it would be to find another QB with that level of talent and intelligence. Because let's face it- what do we have to complain about when the guy has a clean pocket? He's fantastic in those situations. We just don't see it enough and he never developed the pocket presence to handle less than ideal situations.
     
    Last edited: Feb 10, 2019
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  26. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Pennington and Brady were on the same level as leaders..he flipped the whole freakin team in less than 1 offseason.
     
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  27. jeffva62

    jeffva62 New Member

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    Drafting Murry would be a mistake, yes he is talented but he will never make it in the NFL. Bress is the only shorter QB that can still beat you from the pocket. Most shorter QB's Have to move to get throwing lanes which shorten their chances to stay healthy. The NFL is not College the defenses learn faster and the players are taller, bigger and faster. plus unless we make some major line improvements I don't see us being able to open the throwing lanes a short QB would need.
     
  28. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Tannehill doesn't give you top 5 numbers even with good protection, at least not once you make the proper comparisons. Best example of that was showing that Tannehill came in #12th in 2016 by passer rating overall, and he also came in 12th if you compared his famous "best 8 game stretch" to all other QB's "best 8 game stretches". Can't compare one QB's best X games vs. everyone else's season averages because most other QB's are also playing in less than ideal situations.
     
    Last edited: Feb 10, 2019
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  29. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I don't think so- you're comparing "best 8 game stretch" to my "best protection" and saying they're probably the same thing....they're clearly not. For instance, he put up a 155.3 rating against the Raiders; he had 1 sack and very little pressure on the day. The week before, he played poorly against the Jets and put up a 123.1 rating....but he was sacked 4 times. Then we look at Minnesota....a 59 rating and 9 sacks on the day....he passed for 108 yards and lost 71 in sacks. It's pretty clear across his career that when protection goes up, so does completion percentage and outright win percentage.

    People call Brady the GOAT, for instance, yet they ignore that he was sacked once throughout the playoffs. And it seems like those same folks are saying RT is lousy since the line doesn't really matter (AKA, the Russel Wilson effect). Yet when you look solely at RT's least pressured contests, he's as good as anyone out there right now. And I think someone will figure that out if he walks- put him in Brady's situation with only taking a few hits per game, and the kid thrives.
     
  30. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    That doesn't invalidate my point that you need an apples to apples comparison. You need to look at cases where QB's around the league had similar levels of protection (however you define it) and then see if he's top 5. I mean it's going to be true for EVERY QB that the better protection he has the better he'll play on average.

    So what measure do you want to use? Sacks?

    Here's a graph that shows passer rating vs. sack percent in 2014 and 2016:
    [​IMG]

    Nothing special about Tannehill if you look at overall trends. Now, we could break these up into 0-sack, 1-sack, 2-sack games etc.. but it's hard to see how Tannehill would be top 5 when he's so close to the overall trendline with sack%. Again, in his best years he was just slightly above average even with this stat.
     
    Last edited: Feb 10, 2019
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  31. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I don't disagree a all- I would personally use pressures just because we know it's his worst attribute....I couldn't find a site where I could look just by that though. At the same time, I wouldn't want to use just sacks because we know he's thrown several pick-6's in his career just before being sacked. I'm sure the data is out there in some form....but I don't think it's worth the massive homework project for us to define how good/bad he is. We pretty much know already that he's good with protection and lousy without it.

    The only real question left is "How good would be be with a consistent line?" And I think we'll get that answer this coming season (or in the years to follow) outside of Miami. I really believe that if we cut him, RT is a Patriot within 24 hours.
     
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  32. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    It would surprise me almost as much as Miami winning the SB if Belichick thought Tannehill was his future starting QB. I guess we'll see who's right because all indications right now are we're (finally!!) moving on from Tannehill.
     
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  33. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    Omg. Pennington now? Seriously? Pennington was awesome. He was our last really good to great QB, but it was just so short that it didn't leave that indelible impression on some and understandably so because of how short it was due to the injuries. Had he not had that gimpy shoulder and played for us longer, I am very confident that he would have done some great things for the organization and I'm sure we would have seen the playoffs much more. He was smart. He played in control and had control of the whole O. He had that composure and personality to be great. He had touch and was smart with the football, etc. That season was such an effin' tease.
     
  34. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree I drink your milkshake! Club Member

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    But Pennington is also made out of glass. Which is why I have Tannehill ahead of him.

    Which is too bad, because with his vast intelligence, vision, and accuracy I could see Pennington has a player who could have had a Hall of Fame Career.
     
  35. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree I drink your milkshake! Club Member

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    Russell Wilson can as well. He just rarely has a pocket.
     
  36. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Brady’s intellect, processing speed, leadership and pre snap read accumen are some of the reasons why he doesn’t get sacked.

    Yeah tannehill will not thrive in any situation because inevitably protection always breaks down..in every game..especially playoff ones..that’s not his only weaknesses either, dude cannot throw fades, does not used pump fakes or shoulder deeks in his aresenal, is horrible, I mean horrible in the screen game, timing sucks, he makes no conscious effort as to when to run for some easy yardage when lanes and situations are there to do so, lateral agility and anticipation of pressure is subpar, doesn’t throw back shoulder work, ever, and he doesn’t know how to lead offense and motivate players..

    Other than that, he can throw.
     
  37. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Yup, I think he's gone. I read somewhere today that they took his picture down in the QB room already...which seems kinda weird for a guy still under contract. But I've also heard that RT's agent has informed him that he's 100% done for in Miami. So yeah, barring some miracle, we don't have a QB on the roster for next season yet UNLESS it's Falk.
     
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  38. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Any successful QB that's been in the league for 10 plus years and has a relatively "descent" OL doesn't get sacked that often. The reason for this is due to how long they've been in the league, the game "slows down" for them. They've seen every pre-snap line-up so many times, they know what is about to happen before it does and can make adjustments if needed.
     
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  39. Grippa

    Grippa Member

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    Dolphins need to I know up chad Kelly to compete with the rest of the scrubs we have.. I like the kid if he can mature up then we have a decent player
     
  40. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    Brady's football IQ in tandem with a functioning O-line explains that. Tannehill is nowhere near his level from a conceptual standpoint, not to mention lacks the lateral feel. He looked good when the pocket was clean. Hooray, a lot of QB's do.
     
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