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Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Galant, Jan 25, 2019.
You can most certainly judge a rookie. He was bad last year. Historically bad...
His team was horrible? Did you judge young when he was a buccaneer? I did. I thought he sucked. Or doug williams. Put them on good teams. And they are good?
His team did not suck.
I think I was 10 years old when he played for the Bucs. I wasn't judging anyone at that time.
If you watch Rosen play, he's bad.
I didn’t watch one arizona game. So I don’t know enough on my own to argue that he is good or bad. I did read his offensive line was the worst? And some coaches got fired during the season?
Oh ya and rumors of new england wanting him? Stuff like that makes me wonder was he that bad or was it a team thing? I actually liked his throwing motion coming out of college. But that don’t mean squat either
I don't care about his stats as a rookie at all. For what I want in a QB, Rosen is nearly the best blueprint since Peyton Manning. He checks every single important box, and is still just 22.
Any haskins fans here? His pro day was today. Any thoughts?
I personally have a hard time judging with no defense?
I’ve read he might fall to us?
To me, hes definitely the best QB in this year's class, and the only one worthy of a high first round pick. Having said that, he might only be the 4th best QB next year, so it's all relative.
I like him, don't love him. If we pick him, I'll be hopeful and behind him. But I'd rather go with defense this year or a trade down.
Since we saw how bad he was when the pocket broke down, I wonder how Rosen did when he had a decent pocket? That is what I would use as a measuring stick on his potential. Personally, I don't want him, but that is just me. I don't like his attitude and since we are trying to reshape our me first team culture to a team first culture, I think he would just come in and ruin it. He might do well in New England as the back up because they have such a strong culture and a team that can protect an immobile QB. They will also keep his *** in line. It's their way or the highway.
Note: If the Patriots do manage to trade for him, I am preparing myself for the media to splooge themselves majorly over it. When the camera pans out on a giddy reporter covering the Patriots training camp it won't be hard to see the HUGE wet spot on the guys crotch. ;-)
Rosen going to New England is my worst nightmare. Another 15-20 years of darkness.
Simply taking Rosen's statistical production into account for his rookie season and saying he is bad is lazy, foolish even. He had no supporting cast and very poor coaching.
Goff, Wentz, Trbisky, all had lackluster and difficult rookie seasons, and all three made appearances in the playoffs last year playing at a high level.
I expect Rosen to rise into the conversations of those QB's in his second season and beyond. It would be nice if it was done so with the Dolphins.
Of course it is lazy. And of course with his supporting cast you expect his numbers to not be there. Great QBs show flashes even with bad casts behind him. Did he show that? I admit, someone here posted a video of Rosen and it was his "highlight tape" from last year and I almost threw up in my mouth. When the high lights show bad...no thanks.
That was me. And I guess you and I come from very different places on this then, lol. Rosen, or a QB a lot like him, is exactly what I want. My soul would be crushed if were to commit to a small, running QB.
A QB that can run? or a running QB, because those are dramatically different.
I don't ever want my QB to run unless the field is wide open and he can get the first down and then slide without being touched.
I guess that is fair for what you want in a QB, but there is clear evidence that its not required. Guys like Russel Wilson, Cam Newton, and Maholmes have all won MVPs.
He's not the electric lightning rod that is Murray, but he obviously better fits some of the "classical" QB boxes with height, pocket passing, etc. He worth a high pick, especially if he falls to us, but I would be hard pressed to see him lasting until 13. Someone will make a move, especially if Kyler goes #1 overall. He's way ahead of Lock and Jones to me.
Raiders seem to be high on him and Murray both - if they don't get Murray, they may take Haskins. The Giants ... **** only knows what that garbage franchise will do. If we try to sit though, someone will jump us like with Rosen last year. If Grier and Flores really really like one of this year's QBs, we have to make some kind of move.
I had him as a legit first round Qb prospect last year, with hi level arm talent, beautiful mechanics when throwing the ball, and underrated mobility..
It was a sh## show in zona last year..he went through a lame duck coaching season with multiple coordinators..
I know he was a cocky kid who liked to challenge coaches concepts on just about everything so I’m not sure how he is in the locker room, but If the third round rumor is true than mos def.
Giving a 3rd for rosen would be the optimum move for us. Still would have top two picks to draft great talent. Where as I’m afraid we will get stuck with d. Jones with our first pick. As murray, haskins and lock should be gone by 13? And I don’t feel we can afford to trade up. Cause if we miss we set ourselves back again? I can’t wait for the draft. Or trading back for more picks would be good also? I believe this draft will tell us a lot about our immediate future.
Understood. Lots of ways to do well in the NFL. That's just not my style or what I'd be comfortable with.
This is a good breakdown of the top 8 QB's in this years NFL Draft.
Miami set up a private workout for Haskins after his pro day.
Even if it's a smokescreen, it's nice to see that Grier is being open about our need for a QB. At the very least it's a message to the league that teams will have to jump ahead of us, or trade WITH us, if they want a QB.
I'd pick Haskins over Murray to be honest. I'd be happy with either Haskins or Lock - or Murray but we will need to trade up if we do want Haskins I think.
Bingo. It's a sensible ploy either way.
A.) We're paying attention in case someone drops. How stupid would we look if one of the big names drops to 13 and we leave them out there because we hadn't done our due diligence on a position of need, because we didn't think he'd be there.
B.) We have no intention of taking a QB in round 1. By looking at these QBs, we make other QB needy teams nervy, maybe they overspend to jump us. Similarly teams below us who aren't looking at QB like the looks of us to make a potential trade with.
C.) I expect most NFL GM's now know roughly what it would take to move up into certain slots in the draft. Maybe there's a team that the price isn't too steep ahead of us where we can join the conversation for one of the big 3 QBs this year, in which case it of course makes sense to kick the tyres to see if the trade is worth making.
Good video. I agree with the top 3. And will take his word on the rest. As he sounded like he knew what he was talking about?
Quinn 13th pick and 6th rounder in 2019 for Tampa bays number 5 pick!
Easily doable and we have a great opportunity for a an franchise prospect
This isn't really easily doable though, I'm not sure Quinn has that much worth at all. You're looking at more day 3 picks for Quinn.
Yes. Poise, accuracy, and the ability to read the entire field while properly ID'ing the defense and moving through multiple pass progressions.
A broad brush analysis from highlight reels . . . JFC. At least you admit all you did was view some highlights.
Here's some tidbits: Rooke HC who lasted a single season; worst offensive line in the NFL; little to no offensive weapons with receiving targets that were consistently out of position; OC fired midseason and replaced by Byron Leftwich (and I've seen high schools install more complex schemes than what Leftwich sharted).
Now go back and watch Rosen's games (not youtube nonsense) and make note of the number of interceptions which were not his fault, along with the incompletions. Then note his poise in a pitiful pocket, his velocity, and decision making (needs to improve but it got better over the course of the season). You'll find yourself a very competent QB with incredible potential to grow.
I’d trade for Rosen right now and draft a new QB next year. I wouldn’t give up more than 13th for him though
Anybody else see the write up on QB's in the new Pro Football Weekly magazine? When talking about Jones, they stated, " What he lacks in personal traits, he more than makes up for it in intangibles. He will start early and be a winner. He's a better prospect than Arizona's Josh Rosen (number 10 overall pick 2018) because of his intangibles".
They have him rated as their #2 QB, behind Haskins. He might be there at 13 or later. What would you all think about him and not trading for Rosen? He seemed like a Tannehill clone to me because holds the ball forever and takes sacks, but the part of him having intangibles has me intrigued. I wonder how his processing speed is and how he is in reading defenses?
If any entity/person tells you X is great because while their skills are deficient, their intangibles are amazing....needs to be ignored. I don't care what topic they are discussing. sports, politics, food, booties made from pink yarn......they are straight up full of crap.
If intangibles are even an actual thing (I have my doubts) then at best they cannot be quantified, else they would be....you know....tangible. So rating X as #2 or #222 based on nothing but intangibles is literally trying to quantify something, that is by definition, not quantifiable.
Based on that video, we'd be able to grab Finley at 13 or possibly Haskins, and he was really high on both. If we are going QB, would it make sense to try and slide back in the draft and get Finley late in the 1st?
I don't think we're going QB anyway so it doesn't matter...but it would be interesting to see us trade down and land an extra pick.
What we see on the tube or read in the media is not actually what goes on in the locker room or demonstrates insight to what is occurring on the field. Using those sources as a guide to identifying the inner workings of a team and the actual relationships between the players is a fools errand.
Do you know (not just think you know) what the assignments on a given play were? Are you sure a given draft prospect is well enough understood to make a specific declaration of their worth? To read this forum, you would think that the draft is an exercise in bookkeeping, as opposed to trying to make player judgments on limited and most assuredly stilted information. Did you notice that on some QB's pro day's, different prospects threw the ball within 2 seconds of getting it while others waited 4 or 5 seconds before throwing it. They were trying to highlight their strengths and hide their weaknesses. This may be a logical expectation that evaluators take in stride, but the reality is it has as much to do with hiding the truth as it does with providing the truth about a players ability.
This is where most fans let their ego get ahead of reality, resulting in a bogus determination of how good a player might be or is, and what went on and what should have happened during a given play. Its all downhill after that, leaving a fan to try and justify what was an untenable position in the first place. This leads to an absurd degree of conflicting opinions with the real possibility that most, if not all, those opinions are wrong. Then the fun really begins when fans point out the "errors" of the other fans position. It's almost as if we go into the season looking for a fight, and I don't mean between the teams.
From my point of view, getting on these forums is like watching a train wreck, we may not like it but we can't tear ourselves away. Then we get involved in the train wreck and become part of that train wreck.
I need the season to begin so I can focus more on the teams play and less on some posters rants, especially my own!
This isn't true. There's a difference between a "tangible", which is a physical property you can measure – scientists call these "manifest variables" – versus the ability to quantify something which encompasses, but is not restricted to, manifest variables. In fact there's an entire literature on the mathematics necessary to quantify things that are defined by a "latent variable" (a property that cannot be directly observed). Look up Rasch analysis.
The applications are vast, from analyzing patient ratings of items on health status questionnaires to estimating the abilities of students in educational testing. In both cases, you can't independently measure the difficulty of the task (e.g., cooking a meal if you're disabled, or the "difficulty" of a math problem), while with manifest variables you can just directly measure the magnitude of the physical property.
Explaining the math behind this is not that easy, but the key insight people had in the 1960's was that subjective ratings from one person remain subjective ratings (and you'd be right in this case), but once you get subjective ratings to the same set of items from a large number of people, things change. You can show mathematically that the set of ratings should show certain statistical properties even IF every person used their own rating scale. And IF they show those properties then you can estimate an "item measure" for each item and a "person measure" for each person, both of which quantify what you said can't be quantified.
So as much as I and others have bashed PFF with their subjective ratings, they could actually do something scientifically rigorous if they had like 100+ raters, ideally actual football experts. Rasch analysis would first of all show whether the graders are actually measuring a common latent trait, and I'm not sure what the answer here is. You might find out that experts disagree too much and that they're collectively not really measuring anything (would put a huge dent into the credibility of "experts") OR you might find the opposite and the estimated measures (e.g., of QB ability or OL, etc...) would actually be more credible than any commonly available stats like the ones I use.
Point is.. the science and math w.r.t. latent variables are far more advanced than you think.
I agree on making a move for Rosen, but not for our first round pick. I read a few weeks back that his trade value was that of a 3rd rounder.
I would've tried packaging Tanny and a 3rd or a 4th rounder for him three weeks ago, but that was then and this is now. Still think he can be gotten for less than our first or second round picks.
We aren't talking about scientifically though.
Just as "theory" in science means something different than the layman "theory", we are talking about intangibles of the nebulous, non defined varieties. PFW doesn't have specific and scientifically articulated concepts of "it factor" for example, yet they are quantifying it.
When I hear the word "intangibles" as it relates to football, I think of things like leadership, work ethic, drive, mental toughness, and personality. I think we can all agree that those things are pretty important to a QB, but also impossible to actually quantify.
I remember watching a documentary about Peyton Manning and his personal "training camp" at Duke with his brother and receivers before the season in which he broke the TD record. Peyton was absolutely obsessed with the movement of his right foot and hip. Obsessed...despite being one of the best QBs of all time.
When I think about intangibles, I think about Peyton Manning obsessing about little things in the pursuit of perfect. Those attributes can't be measured, but they're important.
Yeah, I think they're posturing in order to slide back and obtain more picks for 2020. If we do move back later into the first round though, I'd say all bets are off and QB could then be on the table at that pick.
I agree with you, but it depends on who falls. Lets say that either Haskins or Lock is there at #13 (but not both), and a team wants to trade up with us to take him as the third QB picked. Are the Fins then going to think about Daniel Jones, Will Grier or someone else with the pick they then have in the 20s? I think that they would probably go with the best defender available at that point.
I saw this suggested on a mock the other day. We trade down from 13 (I think with maybe Oakland at 24) and then drafted Jeffery Simmons with the logic being that with him out for the year, it lets the media fire that starts with his arrest a few years ago happen without anything on field to exasperate it. The Dolphins don't get any talent into the team on field this year as we continue towards tankdom.
I have no idea if this is a sensible suggestion, but one I saw the other day that tied into your trade down scenario.