Dolphins have serious interest in WR Brandon Gibson

We don't know that yet. His true draft stock has not come into focus.

 

Perhaps I should have added I.M.O. Then the true draft stock of basically every player has not come into focus.

 

I would be fine not taking him then… I would rather have Bailey anyways

 

I've literally said the exact same things that each of your previous few posts have said on pages 3-6...lol god...we agree.

Thanks for the backup, dad

 

you are both water heads

 

I noticed after I made my posts and scrolled further down, you'd made several of the same basic points ahead of me.

 

I think you've spent too many long coffee breaks at Dunkin Donuts. The sugar rush from those bear claws and maple bars are affecting your thinking.

 

I like Stedman too. If we could get both Austin and him back to back, like 12 and 42, or 54, I'd be pretty pleased. Sign Wallace and draft the West Va pair and we are rock solid at WR for several years, also considering BH82 and the ascending, IMO, Rishard Matthews.

 

After hearing about Wallace and Jennings for 6 months, this would be a serious letdown, and yet another PR nightmare...

 

we better get at least one elite FA

 

The interest in Brandon Gibson makes no god damn sense to me at all.

 

IMO his draft stock will rise the closer we get to the draft to where 12 seems reasonable.

 

You'd rather have Bailey for the slot than Austin?

 

IF someone told me you can only have one of these two… Austin or Bailey, I would take Bailey seven days a week and twice on sunday

 

Size matters, but it's thickness and width they want.


(790 listeners get the reference)

 

So if we hypothetically have Wallace & Hartline starting on the outside with Matthews backing up, you'd prefer to Bailey in the slot over Austin? Just making sure we're on the same page.

 

That's what they are saying, and personally I 100% agree with them*

*In terms of relative value. If we're talking #12 overall for Austin and our #2b for Bailey, I take Bailey 100% of the time.

Bailey, to me, has a hell of an NFL future ahead of him. YAC ability out the ***, and while he won't be as explosive, I think he'll 1) last longer in the league 2) move the sticks more. The numbers from college don't lie, Bailey gets better YAC.

And YPC. And touchdown rate. The guy just ****ing produces and I think his skillset easily translates to the NFL.

I mean, ****, he destroyed Austin in the very same offense. 400+ more yards, over TWICE THE TDS. It's no contest to me.

 

I don't believe that's true at all. I think for a lot of players the draft stock has come into focus. I think it's argumentative to simply say that you can say that about every player. Tavon Austin is more of a wildcard than a lot of other players in this Draft. Much like Russell Wilson a year ago. Or Brandon Weeden.

 

That may be. But right now it's all over the place.

 

I agree. My favorite receiver in the entire draft. Best part is he should be available with the second 2nd or our first 3rd.

 

Sorry man. I do not intend to be argumentative. I think he is a sure 1st rounder. You don't. Simple as that to me. Agree to disagree.

 

Austin seems to be in the 20-25 range on most overall rankings I've seen, and trending upward.

 

He gets better YAC b/c he plays on the perimeter while Tavon is in the slot. Do you seriously think his YAC yardage would remain the same in the slot? Do you actually beleive he'd have better YAC in the slot than Austin? Perhaps you should also check out the context of Bailey's YAC b/c he was quite the beneficiary of Tavon routinely drawing so much attention. I'm not knocking Bailey, but there's a reason Austin is the 1st round prospect and Bailey isn't. At 5'9 and change, 193 pounds, and 4.52 speed, Bailey won't touch the level of YAC Austin sees in the NFL, won't have a special teams impact (unless he's tackling people), won't offer a versatile X-factor type presence that Austin will, and won't separate from NFL DBs the same way 4.3 Tavon will.

GTHO here. Despite EVERY defense keying on Austin he still contributed 297 MORE yards than Bailey, so I'm guessing you need a new calculator..... and how do you come up with 25 TDs being twice that of 17? Take Austin off the field and Bailey doesn't sniff 25 TDs b/c his numbers are exaggerated thanks to having the game's most dangerous player lined up next to him that every defense had to worry about first and foremost every play.

I tracked 3 games (Marshall, Baylor, Texas) and Bailey had 4 TDs (distances of 19, 87, 39, and 8 yards) that he owed a steak dinner to Tavon for. Three of the TDs he was left wide open on b/c of Tavon, and the 39 yarder he got 1 on 1 coverage with no safety help b/c the safety got caught up with Austin. That's 4 of 10 TDs in those 3 games alone.

Again, I'm not trying to put down Bailey b/c I actually do like him a lot, but it's a little ridiculous when you say stuff like "he destroyed Austin".

 

That's a pretty serious exaggeration about Stedman Bailey owing Tavon Austin anything for those touchdowns.

Chicken or egg argument to say that Stedman Bailey produced because of Tavon Austin or Tavon Austin produced so well because of Stedman Bailey.

 

I'm not saying he produced b/c of Austin; I'm saying he produced above and beyond what his normal production would've been b/c Tavon was next to him drawing so much attention. With the way we all talk about the affect a playmaker's presence has on the rest of the offense and how they help create space and open opportunities for others, I'm surprised this notion gets swept under the rug when talking about Bailey playing alongside college football's most dangerous, versatile, explosive weapon, as well as Tavon's pre-snap motion effectively freezing defenders for a moment (especially safeties).

Honestly, do you feel Bailey was truly 100 yards & 7 TD better than Justin Blackmon?
400 yards & 13 TD better than 2011 Sammy Watkins?
650 yards & 17 TD better than AJ Green?
140 yards & 6 TD better than Dez?
400 yards & 13 TD better than Hakeem Nicks?
360 yards & 12 TD better than Maclin?
450 yards & 6 TD better than Crabtree?
16 yards & 14 TD better than Jordy Nelson?
400 yards & 10 TD better than Calvin Johnson?

 

Without Brady and the Pats' system I believe Welker would be an ordinary, decent but not great WR. Don't want him on this team, personally. He burned that bridge with his comments about Miami when we traded him IMO.

 

Are we looking at different stats here because I'm talking about the WR Tavon Austin. As in Tavon Austin in the receiver role. You're using All Purpose yards? That's incredibly dishonest, because if I started throwing in receiving yards while debating a RB with you, you'd instantly change your tune. And your excuses for Bailey outperforming Austin by a mile is just that... a bunch of excuses.

I mean, unless of course we are looking for another Ted Ginn. Someone to be a mediocre WR and a great punt returner. That certainly interests me... but not in the 1st round again. No thanks.

I want a WR who will score on offense. I want a guy who moves the chains. Someone who I can get a full 45 picks after people are saying we should select a guy who didn't produce nearly as much. Yeah, I want that guy mixed with Mike Wallace and Brian Hartline, please.

And honestly Im laughing at you bringing in other top tier WRs stats into this. I picked Austin for a very specific reason. You can't use that excuse as a handicap for Austin. The system, the QB, the offense, the play calling, the atmosphere, the game environment... it's all the same for those two. That's what matters. Don't look at outside WRs who have already proven themselves in the NFL and try to piggy back Austin on there.

 

It's pretty well accepted that college stats do not necessarily translate to the next level. That goes for Stedman Bailey. It also goes for Tavon Austin.

It's a chicken or egg argument to talk about how Stedman must have benefited from "college football's most" this or that. That argument can easily be turned on its head to Tavon Austin benefiting from being next to "college football's most" blank in Stedman Bailey.

 

I don't think it's dishonest at all to factor in Tavon Austin's rush production. It counts.

 

In my opinion it's no more or less dishonest to count a wide receiver's run production in a discussion about comparative statistics than it is to count a wide receiver's production on screen passes as part of his receiving stats. There's virtually no difference. Those screens are essentially extended run plays. Some of them (sweep screens) the ball is "passed" to them by a distance of no more than 2 or 3 feet through the air.

We've erected these artificial barriers on what "counts" and what doesn't count, without really stopping to think why, IMO.

 

I meant his punt return stuff, actually, so you got me there. Not sure why I went on the RB stat tangent. Like I said, I want a guy who produces at a higher level at the WR position. I think Bailey translates MUCH better to the NFL at WR than Austin. Is there extra value with Austin being that PR/Scatback guy? I suppose, yes, but that just feels secondary to me. You take his receiving + those other benefits and you're still behind Bailey as just a WR

Point being, add in his rushing stats and Bailey still outproduced him in the very same offense by a large margin.

 

Stedman Bailey outproduced Tavon Austin from a touchdown standpoint by a country mile (25 to 15), that's true. But from a yardage standpoint, he didn't. Tavon Austin had 1932 yards from scrimmage. Stedman Bailey "only" had 1635 yards.

I know you want to say that excluding the run stuff is all about seeing what he's going to do for you as a receiver without the "gimmicky other stuff" but the fact of the matter is, run production DOES translate to what players will do as receivers. Screens are not much different from run plays, and they'll be running screens in the NFL. They'll be expected to run after the catch in the NFL. Run production translates.

 

If we're gonna compare Tavon's stats to others, rather than baselessly comparing him to a 2nd/3rd round receiver in the same offense who benefitted greatly from Tavon's presence, we should probably compare him to recent, notable, 1st & 2nd rounders.

With defenses keying on Tavon he still racked up 1932 scrimmage yards & 17 total TDs (return TDs count. 6 points is 6 points).
How's that stack up against the recent 6 years of draftees?
[TABLE="width: 170"]
[TR]
[TD="align: left"]Tavon[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1932[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]17[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: left"]Blackmon[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1529[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]18[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: left"]Floyd[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1160[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: left"]K Wright[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1735[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]14[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: left"]Green[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]892[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: left"]Julio[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1267[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: left"]Jon Baldwin[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]825[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: left"]D Thomas[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1157[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: left"]Dez[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1496[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]21[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: left"]Crabtree[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1166[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]19[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: left"]Nicks[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1256[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]13[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: left"]Harvin[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1303[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]17[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: left"]Britt[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1466[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: left"]Maclin[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1533[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]17[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: left"]D Jackson[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]894[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: left"]Nelson[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1599[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]13[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: left"]Bowe[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]992[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]12[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: left"]Calvin[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1232[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]15[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: left"]Ginn[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]798[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]11[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: left"]Meachem[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1301[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]11[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

What a bum this Tavon guy is, right Crazy.

 

Close to a 10 yard average, over a thousand.

Pattersons is at about 13.5, smaller sample size but still great.

 

I'm not using all-purpose yards. I'm using rushing & receiving b/c they both count. Some of those rushing attempts and being motioned on the sweep/screen take away from his opportunities to catch passes BTW, so his rushing yards should absolutely be included in his total offensive yards.

A) your attempt to use stats to discern players is ridiculous.
B) according to this stat nonsense you're attempting then Stedman Bailey > Calvin Johnson, AJ Green, Julio Jones, and every guy on the long list above.

That's a f***in joke. Remind me to never trust your eye or opinion. ever.

congratulations you just described Tavon Austin, the best & most explosive slot receiver this draft, which is exactly what needs to be mixed with Wallace & Harline.

You're the one who brought stats into this. Hypocrite much?

How the heck do you come to the conclusion it's all the same for those 2 when they play entirely different roles and one of them is the focal point of EVERY defense they plays?

 

yes, we could be led to that conclusion but it's not the case from what I saw. Having Bailey on the field didn't seem to stop defenders (especially safeties) from routinely keying on Tavon, but maybe I need to go back and watch more games.

 

I didn't list his punt return stuff. Nice to jump to conclusions though.

wow, you're gravely selling short Austin's ability as a receiver. It's like you've formed some wacky belief that b/c he's utilized so many different ways and lines up at running back that he's not a legitimate receiver.

If you say so.

 

I must not be explaining myself clearly here, because somehow you have this situation entirely backwards. That's okay, let me try to explain myself further.

First -
You pointing out my being a "hypocrite". This is the toughest one by far, so I figured start with it. Okay, as I stated. OTHER receivers. OTHER. OTHER. I think I spelled it out well enough. Fingers crossed.

OTHER receivers. From OTHER teams. Why do I mean by that? Teams that are: Outside of the system/conference. Quarterbacked by different guys. Playing in different offensive groupings. Playing stronger defenses week to week. That kinda stuff.

It's nearly impossible to apply stats on a transitive* basis for this very reason. Every team is different. The QB throwing him the ball could be so horrifically bad that it clearly and without doubt hinders a studly WRs game (Calvin Johnson -> Reggie Ball) or it can have an effect that a receiver in the Air Raid looks better than he really is (see every Hawaii WR).

It also seems incredibly unfair of you to start preaching that Stedman Bailey benefited from Tavon Austin's presence in that offense as some sort of accepted fact and then base an argument (more of a conclusion being worked backwards but I digress) all around it. You're trying to make an apples to oranges comparison in literally the exact opposite logical sense by saying he should be compared to players from other college teams. I'm refusing to believe that you aren't aware of how that makes this whole argument look. Argue how you wish, but don't introduce opinions and theories as accepted facts. No bueno.

Now, to argue that actual point on my side -
If we're using that explanation, for argument's sake - why is it that most of the other great #1 WRs, the Calvin Johnsons, the AJ Greens, etc... weren't outproduced by the obviously "benefiting" #2 WR two years in a row all while the inferior WR is a full year behind the #1? The only year Austin was able to outproduce Bailey was Bailey's freshman season, Austin's sophomore. Since then, Bailey took over and didn't look back. I don't remember seeing the #2 on Georgia Tech outperforming Johnson Jr. on the regular. Nor did Louis Murphy with Percy Harvin, the lovable comparison from earlier in the thread. That's an NFL caliber receiver playing opposite side of a playmaker, the best case scenario (production wise, not attitude wise) of Tavon Austin, in Percy Harvin. A guy who played in the slot quite frequently as well.

Second -
I apologize for "assuming" you used his punt returns. Bear with me, I have an excuse on this one, in which I need to pass the blame on ESPN. I couldn't find the actual numbers and assumed he ran back 1 or 2 punts. Now, I did that for a reason - I assumed he had to, because you gave me a number of touchdowns that HAD to be accurate. If that is NOT the case, then I have to ask you to help me correct ESPN and re-do the math on TDs - Bailey vs Austin - because I'm staring at 25 receiving/0 rushing for Bailey and 12 receiving/3 rushing for Austin. I mean, I'll also throw in the bowl game, where he got 1 rushing touchdown, so let's say 4. I'm not staring at 17, like you kindly pointed out. Must be a misunderstanding, ESPN had to have missed it, no? http://espn.go.com/college-football/player/_/id/487982/tavon-austin I mean, what else could it be? (My point is not that a single touchdown really matters, but that you decided to be a dick when it was YOUR goof here, not mine)

Last but not least-
In reply to your "if you say so", I'll simply say - either we disagree about the definition of "produce" (I believe it's production of football statistics in a wide receiver capacity, in this case touchdowns, receptions, yards per touch, that kind of thing) or... I'm not sure. You don't believe the game statistics. I'm seeing more yards, more touchdowns, same opportunities at a minimum. That's more production in my eyes.

*http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transitive_relation for your reference.

edit: I feel like a huge dick for responding that way, but I've always been a fight fire with fire type of guy. I just don't understand why you get so aggressive with people that disagree with you. I apologize if you felt disrespect in any way but looking back, I'm just not seeing anything inciting that behavior in my posts. If I'm missing it, I will take full responsibility for it. Look forward to discussing this and other subjects later on. But maybe try to see how your responses are coming off, and realize we're all adults here. No need to act like a bunch of 18-20 year olds in a pissing match.

 

Here's an example of one way Austin helped Bailey's yards. He was lined up in the slot right, Bailey was split left. At the snap, Austin ran behind the line like he was taking the flip from Smith and run the reverse or fly sweep. At the snap, Bailey had ran a go route. Smith faked the flip to Austin, but the threat of it caused the safety who had over the top coverage, to hesitate and Bailey got a step on him. Both he and the corner were expecting Austin to get the ball and be sweeping to their side. When he didn't, Bailey was wide open and Smith hit him with a perfect pass. Touchdown. I don't recall which game this was, but it did happen.

 

I didn't read a word you just said TBH because a) it's late... and b) all that matters in this discussion is Tavon's potential as an NFL receiver, which you seemed to get away from when trying to use Stedman Bailey's greater college TD production as a boundary receiver as some sort of rationale that Tavon isn't worthy of a 1st round pick. Perhaps I'll read it tomorrow..... but probably not.